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srotajuu

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srotajuu
·3 anni fa·discuss
> 34 indictments

A word of caution, 11 of those counts likely correspond to the 11 reimbursements of Cohen. There are likely many repeated actions which all work together as a unit. So I wouldn't make too much of the number until we have more information.
srotajuu
·3 anni fa·discuss
About 40% of those who are politically engaged, which is pretty consistent with his popular vote share of 45-47%, to his opponents' 48-51%.

It'll come down to the campaigns and the electoral college. He is not sure to be defeated but he will continue to be an underdog unless he broadens his message.
srotajuu
·3 anni fa·discuss
Might help him in the primary, but Trump's performance in the general election in 2020 fell pretty dramatically from 2016. The margin of popular vote victory for his opponent was much wider in 2020.

People who gave Trump a chance in 2016, or stayed home because they didn't think he'd be that bad, changed their minds in 2020. Persuadable voters in Michigan and Wisconsin who moved away from Trump are not more likely to vote for him because he was arrested.

The grievance politics works exceptionally well among a certain block of voters, but he needs to make gains beyond this block if he wants to win. There's just not enough of them.
srotajuu
·3 anni fa·discuss
Another reasonable conclusion is that more complex or serious crimes take more time to investigate and prosecute.

There's a lot we don't know, and I would caution you against drawing "the only reasonable conclusion" from extremely limited evidence.
srotajuu
·3 anni fa·discuss
That argument was found to be implausible, beyond a reasonable doubt, by a jury of his peers.