> But as I said - they probably didn't hurt the Democrats much, so all of it won't matter in the near future.
This is probably what we disagree on. The raw Muslim vote was probably not enough to matter anywhere besides maybe MI (and Harris needed way more states to win). But the "allies" and depressed turnout caused by lowered enthusiasm esp in Gen-Z and below IMO could've swung more states than just MI. She might've still lost, but it would have been a lot closer.
Regardless, it's still the only lever the Gaza people had to pull, so they pulled it. It was that or pulling nothing at all, which they thought was a worse option.
Yeah I don't have numbers, but anecdotally a decent chunk of Gen Z in my liberal leaning circles sat about because of Gaza. Like, the Muslims I expected, but the number of non-Muslim "allies" who sat out surprised me.
So anecdotal, but I think you have to consider the depressed turnout. From my circles, it's clear that plenty of Gen Z people (not just Muslims) either stayed home because of Gaza or (as in Dearborn, MI) voted Trump to protest Gaza. Gaza was a IMO a huge enthusiasm dampener for Harris.