vb-8448

981 karmajoined 4 anni fa

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2 ore fadiscuss

My understanding is that it's not about the money itself but the model:

- you fund a new company and sign long terms contracts with it - this new company uses the money you gave it and a lot of debt (backed by long term contracts) to build datacenters and buy a lot of GPU - your figures look great

What happens when they run out of debt or funds? If they reach some kind of profitability it's not a big deal, but if not ...

EDIT

Forget to mention the buyback of unused capacity problem: what happens to your figures when you have to buy back tons of unused GPUs?

3 giorni fadiscuss

I think it's the first time ever we don't see the dominant model being surpassed by new released concurent models.

Did anthropic found their moat or we hit a Wall?

4 giorni fadiscuss

If it's uptime it's definitively not much!

4 giorni fadiscuss

Wait to see what they are using for emails and for most of their internal docs (containing any kind of secrets)!

I know companies that will tell you "I'm not gonna put any of my data in cloud, especially not American ones" but they are perfectly fine using any major cloud based office suite (mail, docs, chat/video apps, ecc ecc) where they voluntarily and deliberately load any kind of data.

4 giorni fadiscuss

> I agree that non-tech companies seem to be taking longer to see results from AI

Rewriting your app in rust won't increase your revenue, it will cost you more in terms of tokens and risk increasing.

4 giorni fadiscuss

> especially from the AI labs

IMO this is one of the endgame for big ai LABS, they will allow and subsidize users to test and validate on their behalf and once there is a PMF they will step in.

6 giorni fadiscuss

> Although the Council emphasizes that the *scans will be limited to the absolutely necessary extent* and that no general, indiscriminate surveillance will take place

I'm 100% sure that this is the case and about the good intentions of the proposers.

/s

8 giorni fadiscuss

It was more a critique to the crowd saying "Zitron is making wrong predictions since 2024" rather than Zitron itself.

8 giorni fadiscuss

> There's at least $50B of LLM usage being paid for in 2026

Just out of curiosity, where did you get the 50B figure?

8 giorni fadiscuss

> Hundreds of thousands of developers have already changed the way they were working for decades

I agree on this, but it doesn't mean that there is an automatic benefit on business side ... and business is what is paying our wages & tokens!

We are still in the discovery phase, but we don't know yet if there will be enough return to repay those hundreds of billions already invested and other few trillions that will be invested in the near future.

8 giorni fadiscuss

Just keep in mind that Zitron is in the business of content creation. It doesn't mean he's wrong[1] but his job isn't making successful predictions.

[1] Actually I think it's right on the overinvestments and ROI claims

12 giorni fadiscuss

It's just because not enough people had this very specific problem before.

This article will be part of the next model training set, and probably it will be able to solve it despite not understanding anything about world or not studying or thinking.

12 giorni fadiscuss

Actually it's almost 2 months /s

15 giorni fadiscuss

Even if "is just the same old shit" they have much more data and of a much higher quality to scale the RL pipeline.

15 giorni fadiscuss

Because you provide them with the "problem" and the "solution" and once you have both you can scale your RL pipeline.

15 giorni fadiscuss

> Both parties are using the same upstream components so it ends up looking the same.

I had a look at the 4 screenshots in the post, and definitively it's not just using the "same upstream components", it's a verbatim copy.

Don't know about the rest of the app and the actual code, but I won't be surprised to find out it's basically the same.

15 giorni fadiscuss

> how many other people have encountered a problem close enough to yours and solved it somewhere on the open internet

I'm 100% sure that all our web, cc, codex or whatsoever sessions are used in the training, RL or either both.

This makes the size of the universe models know about at least one order of magnitude bigger than the open internet.

17 giorni fadiscuss

Did they acquire also BMC?

18 giorni fadiscuss

Probably the first >20k$ macbook ever ...

21 giorni fadiscuss

Debt is directly tied with the ability to repay it, if the cash flow is enough to keep paying it, it's not a big issue, but thing can go horribly pretty fast if someone start having cash problems.