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vvarren

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The labor shortage is the catalyst for sustained inflation

warrenbisch.medium.com
26 points·by vvarren·5 anni fa·56 comments

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vvarren
·5 anni fa·discuss
> But he soon discovered that the shade from the towering panels above the soil actually helped the plants thrive. That intermittent shade also meant a lot less evaporation of coveted irrigation water. And in turn the evaporation actually helped keep the sun-baked solar panels cooler, making them more efficient.

Holy cow! Sounds like a win-win-win to me?
vvarren
·5 anni fa·discuss
I stayed in an Airbnb in Bangkok and in the middle of the night we found a guy under the bed. Airbnb was kind enough to refund us the replacement fee of the key we took with us as we ran for our life. Awful company.
vvarren
·5 anni fa·discuss
First word I got was disability!
vvarren
·5 anni fa·discuss
Be careful what you wish for https://opensea.io/collection/take-the-money-and-run
vvarren
·5 anni fa·discuss
Absolutely. In fact, inflation may be the strategy of choice to get the US out of its debt crisis. Ruling class is totally fine with inflation, because it allows them to raise wages to $15, 20, 25, 30 per hour and act like benevolent leaders when in reality wages are just catching up to where they should be after decades of stagnation.
vvarren
·5 anni fa·discuss
Fair point. This housing boom is largely caused by wealthy investors bidding up the price of single family homes, with AirBnb completely unrelated. There are also some urban-suburban migration dynamics at play. I mentioned AirBnb to point out that this isn't just a new issue. And while vacation rentals have always been a thing, they were formerly centered around vacation destinations. Now, they can be anywhere, and the internet makes it possible to browse and compare prices anywhere in the world. It is now economically feasible to own several vacation rental properties in small cities, which creates a pressure on supply for housing locals. And if you can earn a month's worth of rent in two weeks of AirBnb renting, the price of rent for long-term tenants is either going to go up or you are going to switch to AirBnb.
vvarren
·5 anni fa·discuss
I'll pushback against this point. I noticed that the popular discourse was all about unemployment benefits being the root cause of the labor shortage, when in reality the statistics said differently (i.e., stats from states which had ended unemployment). So I did research to find the true root causes, while I still fleshed out the counter-argument on unemployment. EDIT - also, i'm not a journalist this is just my personal blog and opinions so it's inherently motivated reasoning.
vvarren
·5 anni fa·discuss
I am the author and I appreciate your feedback. I actually wrote this piece to push back against the popular opinion that there’s a labor shortage due to “lazy people on unemployment benefits”. I don’t view asset prices skyrocketing as a healthy sign of the economy booming, instead I view it as all the rich people shielding themselves before inflation sets hold. And my argument hinges on working class people being unfairly priced out of their communities due to the skyrocketing asset prices. I also make an argument against the Airbnbification of real estate and how it is hurting the majority. I apologize if it seems that I am supporting the capital-owning class but it is actually the opposite. Let me know if you have any suggestions to clear this up on my article. (Edit) thanks for the edit that clears it up. I was worried you thought I was pushing a narrative when I’m actually pushing back against the narrative. Cheers!
vvarren
·5 anni fa·discuss
I am the author, and my argument is in no means against rising wages. In fact, I think it’s about damn time that wages are rising. The $15/hr living wage movement has fought for this so long, that now $15/hour is barely a living wage anymore. My argument is actually that the economy is built on the backs of underpaid workers, and now that these workers are demanding their fair value we will either see inflation or the failure of many businesses. I don’t believe a business should be allowed to survive if it can’t afford to pay its employees a living wage, so if my argument implies that it is truly not my intention. Let me know what you think and if you have any suggestions to clear this up in my article.
vvarren
·5 anni fa·discuss
Well the business case as of late is that the global supply chain isn’t as resilient as previously believed, with all of the disruption seen during covid. Primarily with surgical masks and medical equipment at first, but now with nearly every good experiencing disruptions of some sort.
vvarren
·5 anni fa·discuss
Hasn’t this been the trend for a while now, though? My understanding is that self driving trucks are still a decent time ahead of us, and logistics seem like the primary bottleneck causing a lot of these shortages.

Labor systems will definitely be seeking AI replacements, but just because they are needed now doesn’t necessarily mean they are available now. Although you make a very good point, and I think we will certainly see acceleration in this direction.
vvarren
·5 anni fa·discuss
That is definitely the solution to rate variability, but it doesn’t make sense economically. If you are borrowing money why would you also want to buy futures contracts, it would eat into your mortgage spending power when you can just trade in the Bitcoin, get a normal mortgage and probably far better rate, then buy at full buying power.
vvarren
·5 anni fa·discuss
My argument doesn’t hinge on the excess spending. Rather, the increase of costs due to a labor shortage, chip shortage, construction materials shortage, etc. is having a compounding effect across the whole economy.
vvarren
·5 anni fa·discuss
So my understanding is that you’d owe a set amount in Fiat but you can make payments in crypto. Would you be locked into crypto for payments, at a designated fiat value or designated crypto value?

Because if you borrowed in crypto for a house and then the price of crypto skyrocketed you would be screwed. Seems like a nice option for people trying to short the crypto market, but I doubt this has much viability.

Companies realize they can get a headline by adding crypto as a payment method, but nobody cares anymore. It’s the equivalent of a brick and mortar store accepting Venmo and then gathering everyone in the town to tell them how innovative they are…
vvarren
·5 anni fa·discuss
This so-called “transitory inflation” is really starting to seem like it will parlay into full blown inflation.
vvarren
·5 anni fa·discuss
The real hill to die on is the private equity firms buying trailer parks, then extorting poor people who own trailers but not the land under them. Imagine having a 50 year old trailer you grew up in and you inherited, and it’s your only asset but it’s too old to move. Suddenly the trailer park is bought by a hedge fund and rent is increased to an unaffordable level. This is happening all over America right now.
vvarren
·5 anni fa·discuss
Ding ding ding, we have the answer. I was in Lake Tahoe recently and my relatives there were saying how I should move there because there’s so many well paying jobs available… but the cheapest rent was like 1600!! This used to be an issue only in tourist towns but now that houses are priced based on how much they can make on Airbnb, versus the traditional model of how much a worker in the area could afford over 30 years, we’re absolutely screwed. Legislation needs to start with vacation rentals.
vvarren
·5 anni fa·discuss
I tried to buy/lease a car recently and not a single one of the advertised prices was actually available. For example the commercials that say “lease a new 2021 Subaru for $250/month”. You get to the dealership and any of these following reasons could be why the car actually costs way more: that price is for a base model, they only have supreme models available at the dealer that price is only available to people with a 800 credit score you need to put 5,000 down and only drive the car 10,000 miles per year that promotion ended *the promotion is still going but that dealership doesn’t participate

Etc, etc etc.

The list goes on and on, but one thing is for sure- you will never get a car at the advertised price.
vvarren
·5 anni fa·discuss
And meanwhile we would give them pay reductions because honor is worth far more than fake money
vvarren
·5 anni fa·discuss
I’ve noticed that my own Instagram feed was only showing me content from large accounts and female friends who posted bikini pics. And if I decided to keep scrolling without liking a picture it would continue showing me the same post on subsequent logins or even the second photo in the album of the post further down in the feed. The app was essentially telling me what posts to like while filtering out all the genuine content my friends were posting. So I deleted it. We need a good ole consumer boycott and government-initiated privacy probe.