Hacker News Predictions(hnpredictions.github.io)
hnpredictions.github.io
Hacker News Predictions
https://hnpredictions.github.io/
124 コメント
>> I predict that every time the favicon changes, the consensus will be that the change is bad
https://hnpredictions.github.io/
Beautiful really:>
https://hnpredictions.github.io/
Beautiful really:>
I predict the internet will soon go spectacularly supernova and in 1996 catastrophically collapse.
> I predict that within 2 years the iPhone OS will allow you to run unapproved apps provided you click through enough, "Hey, we're warning you! Don't come crying to us when you manage to blow up your dock connector", messages.
-DannoHung (2010)
I'm so sorry Danno. We're still waiting.
> I predict within 2 years no one will even hear about an Nvidia GPU in an Intel-based laptop (unless we're talking $2000+ machines - maybe).
-higherpurpose (2015)
(this is probably about AMD CPUs?) Looks like it's going to be wrong for many more years.
> I predict the sun will run out of steam and we are all gonna die.
-the-dude (2020)
I dunno about that, sun looks fine to me!
footnote: sorry for adding dupes to your data
-DannoHung (2010)
I'm so sorry Danno. We're still waiting.
> I predict within 2 years no one will even hear about an Nvidia GPU in an Intel-based laptop (unless we're talking $2000+ machines - maybe).
-higherpurpose (2015)
(this is probably about AMD CPUs?) Looks like it's going to be wrong for many more years.
> I predict the sun will run out of steam and we are all gonna die.
-the-dude (2020)
I dunno about that, sun looks fine to me!
footnote: sorry for adding dupes to your data
> I'm so sorry Danno. We're still waiting.
How long is the transition phase for Apple until EU users will be allowed to install any software on iOS?
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=32163704
Edit:
> After being signed by the President of the European Parliament and the President of the Council, it will be published in the Official Journal of the European Union and will start to apply six months later.
How long is the transition phase for Apple until EU users will be allowed to install any software on iOS?
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=32163704
Edit:
> After being signed by the President of the European Parliament and the President of the Council, it will be published in the Official Journal of the European Union and will start to apply six months later.
> every app available for the MacLet (iPad/tablet) will be officially available for the MacBook
It appears this has come to pass. https://hnpredictions.github.io/?p=3625
It appears this has come to pass. https://hnpredictions.github.io/?p=3625
With dma, apple allowing unapproved apps will probably come true.
>> I predict the sun will run out of steam and we are all gonna die.
> -the-dude (2020)
> I dunno about that, sun looks fine to me!
I'd call that one half-right. The sun is almost certainly devoid of all gas-phase H2O. Well, maybe a quarter-right, because it didn't "run out" of something it didn't have.
> -the-dude (2020)
> I dunno about that, sun looks fine to me!
I'd call that one half-right. The sun is almost certainly devoid of all gas-phase H2O. Well, maybe a quarter-right, because it didn't "run out" of something it didn't have.
Found another one:
> I predict we will still be using SMS in 10 years.
-malandrew (2012)
Yep. But mostly in the US when cross-OS or automated.
> I predict we will still be using SMS in 10 years.
-malandrew (2012)
Yep. But mostly in the US when cross-OS or automated.
> I predict the sun will run out of steam and we are all gonna die.
To be fair, all of us are indeed going to live a normalish distribution of lifespans and the sun is too.
To be fair, all of us are indeed going to live a normalish distribution of lifespans and the sun is too.
> I'm so sorry Danno. We're still waiting.
Yeah? I thought this exists:
https://sideloadly.io/
Yeah? I thought this exists:
https://sideloadly.io/
If the prediction sentence contains a url, the sentence ends at the first `.` in the url. For example:
> I predict that some cities will eventually desire persistent aerial surveillance systems like http://www.
The full sentence from HN is:
> I predict that some cities will eventually desire persistent aerial surveillance systems like http://www.baesystems.com/product/BAES_162772/ARGUS-IS for many reasons, this being one.
> I predict that some cities will eventually desire persistent aerial surveillance systems like http://www.
The full sentence from HN is:
> I predict that some cities will eventually desire persistent aerial surveillance systems like http://www.baesystems.com/product/BAES_162772/ARGUS-IS for many reasons, this being one.
I guess it's just a little fun site, would've been nice however to have a voting system in random scrolling to provide some highlights (while keeping predictions unvotable in the ranking to avoid typical crowding).
>I predict that the ready supply of instant gratification will be as or more harmful than fast food and the obesity epidemic.
Yet to be widely acknowledged and acted on, but sure seems lsd5you was ahead of the curve on this in 2010.
>I predict that the ready supply of instant gratification will be as or more harmful than fast food and the obesity epidemic.
Yet to be widely acknowledged and acted on, but sure seems lsd5you was ahead of the curve on this in 2010.
Is it more harmful? Contrary to popular belief, attention span is not declining (there is not even a singular value for attention span, it is dependent on activity). That we just can’t enjoy long-running ads anymore is just the media becoming more efficient/better at cuts. At least, according to most researchers: https://www.bbc.com/news/health-38896790.amp
People have been worried about this since TV was invented.
And we went from 30 minute TV shows on global/national/local channels to 30 seconds clips on finely tuned personal feeds with granular data from billions of users optimizing for watchtime.
I know it's a fear as old as books, but it's hard to ignore the different paradigm that the Internet brought to the table.
I know it's a fear as old as books, but it's hard to ignore the different paradigm that the Internet brought to the table.
It seems evident to me that they were right to worry so, the TV appears to have been a net negative.
I like this feature idea
It would be cool to link back to the comment so I can see the context the prediction was made in.
> It would be cool to link back to the comment
Just click the commenter
Just click the commenter
I think they just deployed that, because I don't think that worked an hour ago.
Correct: https://github.com/hnpredictions/hnpredictions.github.io/com...
"added link to original post" committed ~1h before your reply
"added link to original post" committed ~1h before your reply
till OP fixes this you can search the comments here: https://news.ycombinator.com/
Till GP finds the hidden and limited search API (I know it exists and I'm struggling to find it) he can search the comments here:
https://hn.algolia.com
Edit: I was thinking of news.ycombinator/from?site=X, but I realize I'm not even sure it can search comments.
https://hn.algolia.com
Edit: I was thinking of news.ycombinator/from?site=X, but I realize I'm not even sure it can search comments.
I know I could search them, but I'm way too lazy to copy/paste it somewhere else. Especially on a Sunday morning.
oh yea that's what I meant, algolia dunno why I poste news.ycombinator.com lol
> No Investment Advice
Anyone else surprised by the caliber of the legal disclaimer on the site? I can't decide if that's part of the joke or if this is a serious result of the author consulting a lawyer and coming up with this. Maybe I should be more concerned that someone might take some random sentence I wrote out of context and use it as investment advice*
* This comment is not an investment advice
Anyone else surprised by the caliber of the legal disclaimer on the site? I can't decide if that's part of the joke or if this is a serious result of the author consulting a lawyer and coming up with this. Maybe I should be more concerned that someone might take some random sentence I wrote out of context and use it as investment advice*
* This comment is not an investment advice
that should be my tag to every post.
Relevant quote that I saved a while back:
> The tendency to prognosticate without any real evidence will increase in the future. — whatshisface (2019), https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=19567417
> The tendency to prognosticate without any real evidence will increase in the future. — whatshisface (2019), https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=19567417
This turned out correct: https://hnpredictions.github.io/?p=1149
The rest I’ve seen are useless since they’re from 2020 or further
The rest I’ve seen are useless since they’re from 2020 or further
The whole thread is an interesting read. I'm not used to hearing people talk about bitcoins plural!
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1942708
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1942708
saving people a click / posterity when this goes down
> I predict we'll be hearing more and more about bitcoins over the next year or so as the process accelerates. --hugh3, 2010
> I predict we'll be hearing more and more about bitcoins over the next year or so as the process accelerates. --hugh3, 2010
I wish you linked original thread. It not obvious to see it on website.
Yeah, without context, a lot of these don't make sense.
It's explained in the "what is this?" link at the bottom:
https://hnpredictions.github.io/wtf.html
SELECT * FROM bigquery-public-data.hacker_news.full WHERE text LIKE "%I predict%" on the Hacker News BigQuery dataset, plus some mild preparation.
https://hnpredictions.github.io/wtf.html
SELECT * FROM bigquery-public-data.hacker_news.full WHERE text LIKE "%I predict%" on the Hacker News BigQuery dataset, plus some mild preparation.
I think the point is that they want a link to each comment in its original context.
ah, yeah, that seems like an easy feature to add.
If you click the username, it links to the comment on HN.
I predict that this feature will be added soon.
> I predict the predictions will remain very dire until December 2020.
-RickJWagner (2020)[0,1]
[0] https://hnpredictions.github.io/?p=1233
[1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22279436
-RickJWagner (2020)[0,1]
[0] https://hnpredictions.github.io/?p=1233
[1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22279436
> We still don't know when it will be safe for freelancers and small companies to drop IE 7 and other dinosaurs. But I predict that day will come much sooner thanks to Google.
- -jarrett (2011)[0,1]
0: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=2675741
1: https://hnpredictions.github.io/?p=189
- -jarrett (2011)[0,1]
0: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=2675741
1: https://hnpredictions.github.io/?p=189
> I predict you�ll learn that lesson soon.
-tempsy (2019)[0,1]
[0] https://hnpredictions.github.io/?p=2231
[1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21902942
-tempsy (2019)[0,1]
[0] https://hnpredictions.github.io/?p=2231
[1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21902942
I remember mine. Pandemics and mass shootings targeting rich people. 1 for 2
https://news.ycombinator.com/threads?id=jostmey&next=2229115...
https://news.ycombinator.com/threads?id=jostmey&next=2229115...
Technically, that did not really happen yet ( although I agree with that prediction as likely ). We had one instance of mass shooting in an affluent Chicago suburb, but there is no indication it was done to 'target rich people'.
I am typing all this as I recall that I saw 'eat the rich' meme on Imgur the past few months semi-consitently ( to be fair though; Imgur has become oddly politicized as a platform ).
I am typing all this as I recall that I saw 'eat the rich' meme on Imgur the past few months semi-consitently ( to be fair though; Imgur has become oddly politicized as a platform ).
You're agreeing with them. They said they got 1 of 2 right - the pandemic
Thank you for that. I think I need to slow down a little when reading.
Would be nice to be able to select by things like year (predictions made in 2022 are not so interesting yet).
Found this one from 2007: https://hnpredictions.github.io/?p=2849 "I predict because all major businesses will be interacting through Facebook, a new form of currency will begin to emerge." --jimream. Sounds like a popular prediction at the time, given wechat. Although, were wechat payments a thing then already?
Found this one from 2007: https://hnpredictions.github.io/?p=2849 "I predict because all major businesses will be interacting through Facebook, a new form of currency will begin to emerge." --jimream. Sounds like a popular prediction at the time, given wechat. Although, were wechat payments a thing then already?
Needs some work because it doesn't seem to extract the whole sentence.
Original: "The place where I predict we'll disagree is whether to evacuate the machine's workloads prior to servicing."
What was shown: "I predict we'll disagree is whether to evacuate the machine's workloads prior to servicing."
Which is gibberish if you omit the beginning.
Original comment: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22322241
Original: "The place where I predict we'll disagree is whether to evacuate the machine's workloads prior to servicing."
What was shown: "I predict we'll disagree is whether to evacuate the machine's workloads prior to servicing."
Which is gibberish if you omit the beginning.
Original comment: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22322241
In 2010, Daniel B. Markham asked a question to the users of HackerNews, “A New Decade. Any Predictions?”: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1025681
189 comments were posted in the thread. Their predictions included:
- Ubiquitous mobile internet integrated into even very trivial consumer goods
- Ebooks defeating real books
- Rampant piracy
- Common electric cars
- Driverless cars
- China bubble will burst
- Google will go downhill
- Microsoft will become like IBM and have to sell off parts of the business
- Smartphones & cloud computing will make PCs redundant for most people
Of all these 9 predictions, I'd say first 8 were mostly false and the 9th was correct in spirit but still iffy in fact - Statista says that 3/4 of American adults own a computer.
In general, there seems to be a severe bias toward change. Either people were very optimistic about the changes we’d see by 2020 or they were quite pessimistic about the present trends & companies, calling them bubbles or unsustainable. In both cases, a prediction of "trends will stay the same" would have been more accurate than a prediction of "things will change drastically off-trend".
That said, it's a bit unfair to say that stasis/current trends continue is a better prediction, as it has the advantage of entropy. There is only one way for things to stay the same, but many ways for them to change. So even if things are likely to change, predicting stasis can still outperform any specific prediction of change, even if a prediction of any change would be best.
Here’s what actually changed over the 2010s, as I see it.
HARDWARE
- Phones got way better and changed the face of modern human life.
- 3D TVs fizzled.
- VR has fizzled so far.
- AR fizzled.
- CPUs improved, but more slowly.
- HDDs improved, but more slowly.
- SSDs got cheap.
- Displays got way cheaper.
- Cars got better infotainment systems and other features, but never drove themselves.
- Wireless power didn’t happen.
- Mesh networks didn’t happen.
- Ultra cheap RFID didn’t happen.
- Robots didn’t happen.
- Telerobots didn’t happen.
- Drone delivery didn’t happen.
- Flexible electronics didn’t happen.
- Nanotechnology didn’t really happen.
- Graphene didn’t happen.
- Ubiquitous computing didn’t happen.
- Non-silicon based solar didn’t happen.
- Silicon solar costs plummeted and installations went gangbusters.
- Wearable electronics didn’t happen, except for smart watches.
- eReaders grew.
- FPGAs never took off.
- Chips are still mostly silicon.
- The top CPU makers are still Intel and AMD.
- The top GPU makers are still NVIDIA and AMD.
- The top video game console makers are still Nintendo, Sony, Microsoft.
- Home internet remained mostly cable, not fiber.
- Computers remained x86, phones remained ARM.
SOFTWARE
- The dominant search engine is still Google.
- The dominant computer operating systems are still Windows and Mac OS.
- The dominant phone operating systems are still Android and iOS.
- The top video streaming site is still YouTube.
- The top map site is still Google Maps.
- The dominant office software is still Microsoft Office.
- The dominant social network is still Facebook.
- The top online retailer is still Amazon.
- The top cloud provider is still AWS.
- Internet Explorer died, and Chrome grew in share.
- Websites are lot better and slicker.
- Phone apps got way, way better.
- Cryptocurrencies didn’t take off.
- MMOs didn’t take off.
- Web anonymization didn’t happen.
- Web identity didn’t happen.
- Malware still exists.
- Spam still exists.
- Lag still exists.
- Functional programming didn’t take off.
- Telepresence didn’t take off.
- Mass outsourcing of software jobs didn’t happen.
- Linux didn’t take off.
- Prediction markets didn’t happen
- Dynamic pricing didn’t really happen.
- Micropayments didn’t really happen.
- Most of what was growing in 2010 continued to grow, most of what was shrinking in 2010 continued to shrink.
Some things changed, but most stayed on trend.
189 comments were posted in the thread. Their predictions included:
- Ubiquitous mobile internet integrated into even very trivial consumer goods
- Ebooks defeating real books
- Rampant piracy
- Common electric cars
- Driverless cars
- China bubble will burst
- Google will go downhill
- Microsoft will become like IBM and have to sell off parts of the business
- Smartphones & cloud computing will make PCs redundant for most people
Of all these 9 predictions, I'd say first 8 were mostly false and the 9th was correct in spirit but still iffy in fact - Statista says that 3/4 of American adults own a computer.
In general, there seems to be a severe bias toward change. Either people were very optimistic about the changes we’d see by 2020 or they were quite pessimistic about the present trends & companies, calling them bubbles or unsustainable. In both cases, a prediction of "trends will stay the same" would have been more accurate than a prediction of "things will change drastically off-trend".
That said, it's a bit unfair to say that stasis/current trends continue is a better prediction, as it has the advantage of entropy. There is only one way for things to stay the same, but many ways for them to change. So even if things are likely to change, predicting stasis can still outperform any specific prediction of change, even if a prediction of any change would be best.
Here’s what actually changed over the 2010s, as I see it.
HARDWARE
- Phones got way better and changed the face of modern human life.
- 3D TVs fizzled.
- VR has fizzled so far.
- AR fizzled.
- CPUs improved, but more slowly.
- HDDs improved, but more slowly.
- SSDs got cheap.
- Displays got way cheaper.
- Cars got better infotainment systems and other features, but never drove themselves.
- Wireless power didn’t happen.
- Mesh networks didn’t happen.
- Ultra cheap RFID didn’t happen.
- Robots didn’t happen.
- Telerobots didn’t happen.
- Drone delivery didn’t happen.
- Flexible electronics didn’t happen.
- Nanotechnology didn’t really happen.
- Graphene didn’t happen.
- Ubiquitous computing didn’t happen.
- Non-silicon based solar didn’t happen.
- Silicon solar costs plummeted and installations went gangbusters.
- Wearable electronics didn’t happen, except for smart watches.
- eReaders grew.
- FPGAs never took off.
- Chips are still mostly silicon.
- The top CPU makers are still Intel and AMD.
- The top GPU makers are still NVIDIA and AMD.
- The top video game console makers are still Nintendo, Sony, Microsoft.
- Home internet remained mostly cable, not fiber.
- Computers remained x86, phones remained ARM.
SOFTWARE
- The dominant search engine is still Google.
- The dominant computer operating systems are still Windows and Mac OS.
- The dominant phone operating systems are still Android and iOS.
- The top video streaming site is still YouTube.
- The top map site is still Google Maps.
- The dominant office software is still Microsoft Office.
- The dominant social network is still Facebook.
- The top online retailer is still Amazon.
- The top cloud provider is still AWS.
- Internet Explorer died, and Chrome grew in share.
- Websites are lot better and slicker.
- Phone apps got way, way better.
- Cryptocurrencies didn’t take off.
- MMOs didn’t take off.
- Web anonymization didn’t happen.
- Web identity didn’t happen.
- Malware still exists.
- Spam still exists.
- Lag still exists.
- Functional programming didn’t take off.
- Telepresence didn’t take off.
- Mass outsourcing of software jobs didn’t happen.
- Linux didn’t take off.
- Prediction markets didn’t happen
- Dynamic pricing didn’t really happen.
- Micropayments didn’t really happen.
- Most of what was growing in 2010 continued to grow, most of what was shrinking in 2010 continued to shrink.
Some things changed, but most stayed on trend.
I think functional programming has a larger presence in JavaScript/frontend now, given ES6 APIs like forEach/map and interfaces like higher-order components in React. I notice much more FP in modern frontend docs, like CodeMirror 6, Lit web elements. So, we’re not all using Haskell, but its certainly benefited my programming to have a better understanding of FP concepts.
I would add one imo big change that happened between 2010 and 2020.
- subscription model almost completely replaced one-time purchase model for software.
- subscription model almost completely replaced one-time purchase model for software.
It missed that thread by a few weeks, but I think it's fascinating how little the iPad (announced January 27, 2010) and other tablets have impacted our computing lives, despite a lot of excitement at the time.
They still exist, they're nice, but instead of supplanting anything, they're mainly just tertiary devices owned by a relatively small number of people.
They still exist, they're nice, but instead of supplanting anything, they're mainly just tertiary devices owned by a relatively small number of people.
They’ve made a big dent in a lot of dedicated point-of-sale and other kiosk type systems, it seems.
Cryptocurrencies didn’t take off? Does Bitcoin reaching 60k from nothing not count as taking off?
Sure the price took off. But has it's share of purchases eclipsed hand written checks yet?
To compare currencies, it's probably better to look at market capitalization and number of owners. The market cap is currently at $0.5T and there are about 100 million Bitcoin owners, which makes it a small currency (comparable to Swedish krona in terms of market cap), but it has certainly "took off".
[deleted]
> - Ubiquitous mobile internet integrated into even very trivial consumer goods
Surely, surely this has to be among the predictions which came true, or largely so. Even toothbrushes have Wi-Fi!
Surely, surely this has to be among the predictions which came true, or largely so. Even toothbrushes have Wi-Fi!
I predict the US will switch to the metric system and the entire world will switch to a 13 month calendar, in 100 years.
It would be nice if users could mark predictions as true.
I would love to see how the predictions trade on prediction markets like https://manifold.markets/. Could you automatically create an entry for every prediction?
I would love to see how the predictions trade on prediction markets like https://manifold.markets/. Could you automatically create an entry for every prediction?
We do have an API to make this pretty simple! Check out https://docs.manifold.markets/api
And a not-so-secret endpoint where you can use URL params to prepopulate the question field, eg https://manifold.markets/create?q=Rust%20will%20also%20begin...
And a not-so-secret endpoint where you can use URL params to prepopulate the question field, eg https://manifold.markets/create?q=Rust%20will%20also%20begin...
These are all really atrocious predictions, and the newest ones don't really seem any less stupid than those whose time has already come to pass. People also seem to have a weird inability to construct grammatically correct sentences that start with the phrase "I predict."
All "I predict" comments in chronological order, filtered so the very oldest from 2007 are visible: https://hn.algolia.com/?query=%22i%20predict%22&type=comment...
Also try, "in x years"
Nothing too remarkable. [This thread](https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=68111) envisions the rise of music streaming, but the prevailing attitude is that it'd enable p2p sharing and piracy, not forestall it (also see comments on the article itself).
Also try, "in x years"
Nothing too remarkable. [This thread](https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=68111) envisions the rise of music streaming, but the prevailing attitude is that it'd enable p2p sharing and piracy, not forestall it (also see comments on the article itself).
Good but needs more work. you need to contextualize using the original response and original post. I can see the value of this though. On similar lines, you could probably organize all software / product / business ideas people mention in comments also. Good luck.
Yeah, simply finding "I predict" leads to a lot of non-predictions, as it's often used as a colloquial substitute for "I believe" or "I anticipate."
https://hnpredictions.github.io/?p=3550
> I predict that touch interfaces in cars like this is a fad that will pass and people will look back on it as an embarrassment
Hilarous.
> I predict that touch interfaces in cars like this is a fad that will pass and people will look back on it as an embarrassment
Hilarous.
I dunno, it seems like the tide is turning a bit. Mazda and BMW both say they're going to cool it with touch screens, and I assume others have too. This might be related to the chip shortage, but then again I've seen a bunch of articles about how much people hate this technology in cars. The original prediction doesn't include a timeline, I note. Maybe this is wishful thinking on my part?
For the driver a touchscreens is dangerous. For passengers or for configuration is OK.
I got the radio controls on my steering wheel. I would be dead or I won't be using the radio if they were on a touchscreen. Closing a phone call is on the touchscreen and I'd like to be able to do it from the steering wheel. The less the eyes leave the road the better.
I got the radio controls on my steering wheel. I would be dead or I won't be using the radio if they were on a touchscreen. Closing a phone call is on the touchscreen and I'd like to be able to do it from the steering wheel. The less the eyes leave the road the better.
"I predict the 2020s will be strikingly similar to the 2010s."
https://hnpredictions.github.io/?p=4346
I guess it's hard to predict, especially about the future.
https://hnpredictions.github.io/?p=4346
I guess it's hard to predict, especially about the future.
With such a vague statement, you could easily swing it either way. To me, it looks basically identical. What's different for you?
The obvious one to me was how COVID came in 2020 and put the world into quarantine making and actual change in how people work remotely. The technology was there in the 2010s, but something external changed our usage. Of course, it looks like it is trending backwards again with companies forcing workers back to the office, at least partially.
Politics across the globe seems more insane than ever. Maybe I wasn't paying attention 10 years ago.
Politics across the globe seems more insane than ever. Maybe I wasn't paying attention 10 years ago.
Maybe you were not paying attention but it doesn't matter: the world did change a lot with Covid and especially with the war in Ukraine, at least in Europe. It's definitely different than up to early 2020.
Or maybe I'm not paying enough attention to right now. Good points though, thanks.
If it's not a top level comment it ought to show the context of the parent comment.
My pet peeve: predictions not associated with probabilities or odds.
It's impossible to verify or score accuracy without that. Nobody predicts anything at 100 % certainty (otherwise it wouldn't be a prediction, it would just be stating inevitable facts), so there's always an implicit level of confidence.
It's just that when people don't say what it is, their predictions become meaningless to anyone but themselves.
A prediction without a probability is also not open to critique, because the way we settle differences in beliefs about uncertainties is through betting against each other. But a bet requires odds to price it with.
It's impossible to verify or score accuracy without that. Nobody predicts anything at 100 % certainty (otherwise it wouldn't be a prediction, it would just be stating inevitable facts), so there's always an implicit level of confidence.
It's just that when people don't say what it is, their predictions become meaningless to anyone but themselves.
A prediction without a probability is also not open to critique, because the way we settle differences in beliefs about uncertainties is through betting against each other. But a bet requires odds to price it with.
What do you mean? Adding odds defeats the purpose of the prediction since you can't confirm it to be true or not.
If I predict with 99.99% odds something will happen and it doesn't, my prediction could still have been correct as that fits in the remaining .01%. Whereas if I predict something will or won't happen after some time, you can confirm if it did or didn't happen after that time.
If I predict with 99.99% odds something will happen and it doesn't, my prediction could still have been correct as that fits in the remaining .01%. Whereas if I predict something will or won't happen after some time, you can confirm if it did or didn't happen after that time.
All predictions come with uncertainty. That's what makes them predictions.
Even if someone says "there will be an ice cream shortage in France in the summer of 2025" they don't mean they are 100 % certain of it. They mean they find it somewhat likely -- but exactly how likely? That's what they have to tell us, because we don't know.
For an individual prediction, you can never tell whether it's true or not, because individual predictions always come with some level of uncertainty.
What you can do, if you know at what confidence level it was made, is
- Score individual predictions. One made at 99.9 % certainty that doesn't come true gets a heavy negative score, while if it would have been made at 60 % it gets penalised much less.
- Verify the accuracy of a collection of predictions. If I predict five things at confidence levels of 0.8 0.7 0.9 0.5 0.5 then I should get roughly 3--4 of them right. If I don't, my predictions aren't very accurate.
Even if someone says "there will be an ice cream shortage in France in the summer of 2025" they don't mean they are 100 % certain of it. They mean they find it somewhat likely -- but exactly how likely? That's what they have to tell us, because we don't know.
For an individual prediction, you can never tell whether it's true or not, because individual predictions always come with some level of uncertainty.
What you can do, if you know at what confidence level it was made, is
- Score individual predictions. One made at 99.9 % certainty that doesn't come true gets a heavy negative score, while if it would have been made at 60 % it gets penalised much less.
- Verify the accuracy of a collection of predictions. If I predict five things at confidence levels of 0.8 0.7 0.9 0.5 0.5 then I should get roughly 3--4 of them right. If I don't, my predictions aren't very accurate.
Predictions and probabilites seem unrelated, except in mathematical models which attempt to make "predictions" through probabalistic models. Perhaps you've spent so much time reading about machine learning that you've gotten the concepts confused. I would go so far as to say that a prediction that comes with a probability is not a true prediction, but an estimate masquarading as one.
Quite the opposite! A prediction is an estimation of the most likely outcome in a binary event.
I mean, I get that just saying the above seems to confirm your "too much machine learning" hypothesis, but I guarantee you that's not the case. At my own peril, I'm too old fashioned to have read much about machine learning.
What I can say is that when making strategic and tactical decisions that affect a lot of people, I have found it incredible to know things like "I am 85 % sure we will not make the next release in time" (an actionable prediction) compared to "there's no way we'll make the next release in time" (when in fact there's still a 15 % chance we will, if we take proper action now.)
I mean, I get that just saying the above seems to confirm your "too much machine learning" hypothesis, but I guarantee you that's not the case. At my own peril, I'm too old fashioned to have read much about machine learning.
What I can say is that when making strategic and tactical decisions that affect a lot of people, I have found it incredible to know things like "I am 85 % sure we will not make the next release in time" (an actionable prediction) compared to "there's no way we'll make the next release in time" (when in fact there's still a 15 % chance we will, if we take proper action now.)
It most definitely is not. Confidence and predictions are orthogonal concepts outside of stats and ML. A gambler makes predictions, but may have no confidence in winning. A scientific model may produce predictions with no associatel claims of probability or even validity. It is perfectly grammatically and semantically correct to say that someone made a prediction that they themselves do not believe to be the most likely outcome.
Any gambler that makes a prediction without internally associating it with a probability is one that's most likely losing money. You simply cannot consistently make positive-EV bets without considering the probabilities of your predictions. (Heck, EV is the linear combination of probability and payoff.)
A scientific model almost always includes a very specific kind of probability: the p value. The best scientific models are also validated externally and have the results of that experiment reported -- as probabilities: false positive and false negative rates are common concepts to discuss that.
I completely agree that one can predict something that one does not believe to be the most likely outcome. But in order to even say that, you have to be implying that there is at least a partial order from "least likely" to "most likely" and that order is commonly referred to as probability.
(Edit: oh, I see where you got the "most likely" from. By convention, in a binary prediction, the prediction itself is stated in terms of the most likely outcome, with a confidence between 50 % and 100 %. It is of course possible to state the other side of the event with a confidence level < 50 % -- it's just not the way these things are usually presented.)
A scientific model almost always includes a very specific kind of probability: the p value. The best scientific models are also validated externally and have the results of that experiment reported -- as probabilities: false positive and false negative rates are common concepts to discuss that.
I completely agree that one can predict something that one does not believe to be the most likely outcome. But in order to even say that, you have to be implying that there is at least a partial order from "least likely" to "most likely" and that order is commonly referred to as probability.
(Edit: oh, I see where you got the "most likely" from. By convention, in a binary prediction, the prediction itself is stated in terms of the most likely outcome, with a confidence between 50 % and 100 %. It is of course possible to state the other side of the event with a confidence level < 50 % -- it's just not the way these things are usually presented.)
> Any gambler that makes a prediction without internally associating it with a probability is one that's most likely losing money.
The very fact that this idea is expressible proves that you're combining two different ideas in your head. You're seeing the utility in making accurate predictions then, despite being perfectly capable of talking about predictions which aren't estimates, pretending that they're the same concept.
I of course don't need to appeal to your own confused words, because we live in a world where dictionaries exist.
The very fact that this idea is expressible proves that you're combining two different ideas in your head. You're seeing the utility in making accurate predictions then, despite being perfectly capable of talking about predictions which aren't estimates, pretending that they're the same concept.
I of course don't need to appeal to your own confused words, because we live in a world where dictionaries exist.
Sure, I feel like that's what I've been trying to say all along: you can make a prediction without saying at what confidence level, but it doesn't mean anything to anyone other than perhaps to yourself, because only you know how strongly you believe in it.
We can go all bayesian about predictions but at the end of the day dropbox didn't build itself. At some point we need to act on it.
Right and it's specifically for action that we need to know the odds. To pick one set of actions in advance of an uncertain event we need to know three things:
- The cost in case the event turns out bad,
- The upside in case the event turns out good, and
- The probability that the event turns out good.
We can summarise the two first ones as "the payoff function of the event" and simplify the situation into requiring knowledge about the payoff and the probability.
But without the probability we cannot take informed action.
(Unless the payoff is structured such that the probability doesn't matter -- but then it's also not much of a difficult decision.)
- The cost in case the event turns out bad,
- The upside in case the event turns out good, and
- The probability that the event turns out good.
We can summarise the two first ones as "the payoff function of the event" and simplify the situation into requiring knowledge about the payoff and the probability.
But without the probability we cannot take informed action.
(Unless the payoff is structured such that the probability doesn't matter -- but then it's also not much of a difficult decision.)
"I predict it is doomed, and before long even you will abandon it. "
Talking about HN to jacquesm.
I laughed.
Talking about HN to jacquesm.
I laughed.
Fun idea. Needs a sort by time, and a link to the context.
"I predict this will turn into a debacle for Apple."
What will? I pushed the button about 10 times and only saw one that was even partially understandable without context.
"I predict this will turn into a debacle for Apple."
What will? I pushed the button about 10 times and only saw one that was even partially understandable without context.
[deleted]
Small bug, it is attributing quoted replies to the quoting comment instead of to the source comment: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=2661020 and https://hnpredictions.github.io/?p=1539
Another bug, it is attributing some quotes to either different users or changed usernames: https://hnpredictions.github.io/?p=3423 is attributed to ReidZB, but ReidZB doesn't appear anywhere in the discussion (https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=4955793) and it was actually said by rwiggins.
It's a fun quote out of context: "I predict gravity will disappear in five minutes for thirty seconds".
It's a fun quote out of context: "I predict gravity will disappear in five minutes for thirty seconds".
I predict Amazon's rank in the top500 is about to improve.
-rbanffy (2010)
BTW: p=1191
Feature request - one click copy of the quote, attribution and link?
E.g.:
E.g.:
I predict blah
-- foobar in 2022I came across a quote from myself on the third refresh!!
Any chance you could add links to the original comment? I'd like to see what I was talking about in 2017. From the quote:
"I predict it's abandoned within the year"
I was almost certainly talking about a Google product, but I can't remember what. I thought it was Stadia, but apparently that was announced the year after.
Any chance you could add links to the original comment? I'd like to see what I was talking about in 2017. From the quote:
"I predict it's abandoned within the year"
I was almost certainly talking about a Google product, but I can't remember what. I thought it was Stadia, but apparently that was announced the year after.
What the heck petercooper, first link I got on this site: https://hnpredictions.github.io/?p=3007 and he predicts an oil crash in the next year which then happens spectacularly. I hope he put some money on that and not just some HN karma.
Feature requests:
- Filter by "before year", so I can see predictions from earlier years which are more likely to be resolved. Most of the random results I got are in the 2020s.
- Make the url contain a seed, so you can copy/paste the URL and get the same prediction (EDIT: my bad, looks like there is already a "share link" button)
- Filter by "before year", so I can see predictions from earlier years which are more likely to be resolved. Most of the random results I got are in the 2020s.
- Make the url contain a seed, so you can copy/paste the URL and get the same prediction (EDIT: my bad, looks like there is already a "share link" button)
> This site uses "smartest" and "most pedantic" interchangeably.
Couldn't have it any other way for HN!
Couldn't have it any other way for HN!
I wish there was a way to get a list of predictions from a timeframe. January-June 2020 would be a goldmine.
Appropriate:
I predict that this HN thread will lead hundreds of folks to tell stories of confirmation bias.
I like the idea of being able to vote on whether the position turned out to be correct. Would be cool to see it as a histogram over time, so you could see whether predictions started becoming more correct.
Also, typical narcissistic me wants to see any predictions that I might have made.
Very cool and fun project.
Also, typical narcissistic me wants to see any predictions that I might have made.
Very cool and fun project.
too bad this site (which encourages it) and most of the comments so far are focused on (poor) singular predictions without taking the next step and wondering whether the mean(s) of these predictions are fairly accurate. i'd suspect that with enough samples, the mean of any given prediction would be fairly accurate[0], but instead, it's lot of shallow criticism.
for instance, i had been saying (since at least 5 years ago) that full self-driving was at least 15 years away. looking at the state of the tech, i was probably too optimistic, but i'd love to know the mean prediction of the population to see how far offbase i was.
[0]: this is the central thesis of the book wisdom of crowds, and of the many prediction markets it spawned.
for instance, i had been saying (since at least 5 years ago) that full self-driving was at least 15 years away. looking at the state of the tech, i was probably too optimistic, but i'd love to know the mean prediction of the population to see how far offbase i was.
[0]: this is the central thesis of the book wisdom of crowds, and of the many prediction markets it spawned.
Just a note about your sentence parsing. I got a "I predict Python 2." entry, where the sentence was "I predict Python 2.7 will something something".
Your sentence regex should look for a period followed by whitespace or end-of-input.
Your sentence regex should look for a period followed by whitespace or end-of-input.
Some other fun phrases to look for on ageing HN comments:
'If I was president I would'
'You're not wrong, but'
'My point is that'
'The thing is'
'Google should'
'Basically what I'm saying is'
'The only caveat is'
'Buyer beware'
'Without sounding like'
'The truth is'
'In all honesty'
'As a matter of fact'
'If I was president I would'
'You're not wrong, but'
'My point is that'
'The thing is'
'Google should'
'Basically what I'm saying is'
'The only caveat is'
'Buyer beware'
'Without sounding like'
'The truth is'
'In all honesty'
'As a matter of fact'
The phrase "The fact of the matter is..." is only ever used dishonestly. If I had a talk show, any guest who used this phrase would immediately have his/her mic cut and out the door they go.
"I predict that much like Demand Media [DMD], Groupon [GRPN] will be at less than half its IPO price within one year." - gojomo (2011)
You actually underestimated how far it could fall. It was down 89% one year later.
You actually underestimated how far it could fall. It was down 89% one year later.
> I predict Reddit will be the first challenger to finding web content.
-kevando (2017)
https://hnpredictions.github.io/?p=1047
Winner winner chicken dinner
-kevando (2017)
https://hnpredictions.github.io/?p=1047
Winner winner chicken dinner
Even in 2017, this was more stating the status quo than really predicting.
Already plenty of comments throughout 2017 of people searching reddit for more "human" recommendations because of Google getting overrun with corporate spam.
https://hn.algolia.com/?dateEnd=1513209600&dateRange=custom&...
Arguably the difference between then and now is that astroturfing Reddit has become more profitable and hence more common as people adopt that mindset, so searching reddit is less valuable now than in 2017.
Already plenty of comments throughout 2017 of people searching reddit for more "human" recommendations because of Google getting overrun with corporate spam.
https://hn.algolia.com/?dateEnd=1513209600&dateRange=custom&...
Arguably the difference between then and now is that astroturfing Reddit has become more profitable and hence more common as people adopt that mindset, so searching reddit is less valuable now than in 2017.
"I predict we'd end up mostly back where we are."
So do I.
https://hnpredictions.github.io/?p=1485
https://hnpredictions.github.io/?p=1485
This is really cool but the links on the page are hard to tap on mobile.
"I predict smooth sailing from here on out."
-lukasb (2017) [0]
haha
[0]https://hnpredictions.github.io/?p=135
haha
[0]https://hnpredictions.github.io/?p=135
Im really having hard time reading the prediction
(By the way is there a way to block any custom font/use the system default in safari for iOS)
(By the way is there a way to block any custom font/use the system default in safari for iOS)
Would be nice to include explicit predictions that don't start with "I predict" from the prediction threads.
> I predict that a nonzero number of people will be harmed, embarrassed or at least inconvenienced by this.
-haram_masala (2020)
Truth
Truth
I augur that the query will be expanded soon with a list of synonyms. I bet would probably add more interesting results
I predict we will see a glut of attention-seeking posts on HN starting with the words “I predict”.
I predict the preparation script for hnpredictions will soon have an exclusion for this topic.
I predict people on hn will use the the expression "I predict" much more often now.
My guess is searching for "my guess is" would find similar predictions.
It will be good to be able to se the link to original post at HN.
I don't even need context. Always applicable.
https://hnpredictions.github.io/?p=3337
EDIT: this is a fun one: I predict lots of people will make predictions, but we'll never go back to check and see if they were right. — the reckoning has come, tlrobinson!
https://hnpredictions.github.io/?p=247