Prediction Market Accuracy: Crowd Wisdom or Informed Minority?(papers.ssrn.com)
papers.ssrn.com
Prediction Market Accuracy: Crowd Wisdom or Informed Minority?
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=6617059
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TLDR (of the paper): prediction markets are basically a scam with extra steps. If you're not in on the scam (top 3%), you're the sucker (the liquidity).