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aetherson

8,615 カルマ登録 14 年前

コメント

aetherson
·5 日前·議論
Okay, if it's bad for the price they're offering, use the more expensive API. If they themselves can't afford it I don't know what you want here.
aetherson
·11 日前·議論
That was very much on the table, though not locked in.
aetherson
·11 日前·議論
The US's population is not declining. However, without immigration, our population growth would be very close to zero, and a yet lower rate of natural increase is locked in over the next couple of decades (more old people who will die than children).

And, I mean, it's obviously hard to predict beyond that, but it doesn't seem like anyone has any real clear answer to the trend of steadily decreasing TFR right now.
aetherson
·12 日前·議論
I mean, he was pretty vindicated on Uber. Which kind of hurts me to say, I was a long time Uber bear. But it did indeed emerge from the pandemic stronger.
aetherson
·12 日前·議論
Sure. But that's not the subject.
aetherson
·12 日前·議論
They learn during training, which is what we're talking about.
aetherson
·12 日前·議論
You're confusing the training method with the internal process. If I had you repeatedly attempt to learn how to make believable completions of partial documents about a given topic, you would eventually learn things about that topic and could use your knowledge to create more believable completions of documents about that topic.
aetherson
·2 か月前·議論
Copper is expensive, and the manufacturing process sounds finicky.
aetherson
·2 か月前·議論
It'd be interesting to try to imagine a Venusian colonization that's like two separated levels: an atmospheric area where most people live and where you grow food, and then a subterranean (yes, yes, sub... aphroditean?) where you mine and so forth, and there are brief, fraught transitions between the two layers but no actual habitation of the surface or lower atmosphere.
aetherson
·3 か月前·議論
Not really. It's turn-based and hex-based.
aetherson
·4 か月前·議論
People also do some really stupid things, I'll just throw out.

But it also kind of sounds like you're just saying that there's a scalar of "get a little better" before you'd trust AI with something.
aetherson
·4 か月前·議論
Genuine question: is there a big inherent difference between "I don't understand this thing but I think this other human does," and "I don't understand this but I think this other AI does"?

If your answer is "yes," do you think that's inherent to the (metaphysical?) fact of it being AI or to specific limitations to current AI? If the latter, what changes to AI would let you trust it?
aetherson
·5 か月前·議論
Quick heuristic for someone who claims that their AI is conscious: do they claim it's "a gender that they are not attracted to"?
aetherson
·5 か月前·議論
Amazon isn't a monopoly, it has 8% of retail in the US.

There's no real evidence that this trade was made by Buffet himself, and it's part of a general major sell-off of Amazon that transparently did not temporally align with the idea that Amazon's retail business has suffered a decline in quality.

This is the market making a (reasonable!) judgment that it lacks confidence that Amazon's capital expenditures will pay off.
aetherson
·5 か月前·議論
These just aren't the relevant concerns behind Amazon's stock performance in the last month. It's the capex.
aetherson
·5 か月前·議論
Nonsense. There are lots of things that you need more than three strikes for, especially on a platform that you expect to use for decades.

I'm not here to say that Facebook's enforcement behavior is optimal, and I don't know that a "17 strike policy" is a full description of their enforcement behavior. But there are plenty of behaviors that you want to discourage but not go nuclear about.
aetherson
·5 か月前·議論
No?

Like, I'd think that was a bad policy for murder in particular, but "we don't allow things but we give you a lot of chances to correct your behavior" is ordinary.
aetherson
·5 か月前·議論
Native population is declining (and prime-age workforce is retiring), and the Trump admin has been extensively working to reduce the size of the immigrant workforce.

So the unemployment rate is staying low, but the absolute number of workers is flat or declining.
aetherson
·6 か月前·議論
The in-industry terms for these are "brand marketing" and "performance marketing," FWIW. Brand marketing is the first thing, performance marketing is what you're calling sales.
aetherson
·6 か月前·議論
Price discrimination is bad. It's worth trying to ban. You'll never stop 100% of it (and trying to go too over-the-top in terms of stopping it would not be worthwhile), but this is a useful area for regulation.