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Show HN: Why is forecasting so hard?

colab.research.google.com
3 ポイント·投稿者 americast·3 年前·0 コメント

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americast
·3 年前·議論
While I agree, we can always have multiple overlapping error bars to understand how the probability is distributed. I am not sure how a probabilistic forecast method is able to perform this better because the confidence interval is always generated through sampling in either situation.

Though probabilistic forecasting methods may have a Bayesian approach, it is Monte Carlo sampling that helps generate the confidence intervals.

Feel free to correct me if I am wrong! Thanks :)