Evidence that METR may be underestimating LLM time horizonslesswrong.com1 ポイント·投稿者 aorobin·6 か月前·0 コメント
aorobin·11 か月前·議論>"Demis Hassabis' very recent estimate was for 50% chance of AGI by 2030 (i.e. still 15 years out)."2030 is only 5 years out
aorobin·昨年·議論Yeah, just last month Altman said gpt-5 is coming in a few months, and betting/prediction sites are expecting it this year, probably in the summer.
aorobin·昨年·議論Seems likely that they are waiting to release o4 full results until the gpt-5 release later this year, presumably because gpt-5 is bundled with a roughly o4 level reasoning capability, and they want gpt-5 to feel like a significant release.
2030 is only 5 years out