Well, you are working from all sorts of misguided assumptions about how you convert, the yield, the efficiency, the shared capital, and history.
Old gen logic barely exists, and won't convert. The tools are wrong so it wouldn't yield. And there isnt the expertise (on tool recipes and integration) to do it.
Historically, memory is a sawtooth business. But history isn't a great guide here: 10 years ago, a new plant added meaningful capacity, as it came with a shrink of about 30%. Today....it doesn't. So it take huge capital to add a very small amount of capacity.
You can dream that things like 3d dram and 4f cells will help, but they are unlikely to offer enough with demand.
And finally, everyone running a dram plant has lived through these capacity boom bust cycles and the consequently layoffs and pay cuts. I suspect they are happy to take money this time. I would be in their place.
I do hope we see a new dram or dram-like designs. And that there are more efficient dedicated ai processors. And that models themselves become more memory efficient. But I don't really believe any of these come soon.
It would be nice to have portfolios, but systems are broken enough that that becomes hard to see. I suspect one of the reasons for the bias to hiring PHds in fields where it really isn't necessary is at least you have a work portfolio.
My work laptop will stall on resize constantly, and I suspect it is due to the mess of security and backup software. Windows does have an ecosystem problem.
I am also baffled by the multiple control points. I can log in to mail in 3 places. Settings have 3 with different uis....it is gross.
None for normal.compute, since energy density is still fundamental. But the interesting option is cryogenic computing, which can have zero switching energy, and 10s of GHz clock rates
Group theory and crystallograpy without either word? I suppose I can look at this as an extension of group theory to glassy and partial.domains, but it doesn't appear to offer much more.
Columnar basalt formation has been understood for a long time, I really don't understand what this explained that wasn't already known?
You can do lithography small but slow and expensive. But small means you need a stack, which is even more expensive. At small sizes, defectivity/variation are really difficult.
So if you want a paradigmatic shift, you need low cost patterning, and the best way I can see is to use clever chemistry and a much different design style.
I wonder if that is why it worked as opposed to why it sold. At least, as one of the users in that time it seems to me that the itch was the document repository with some features, and the rest was fluff for purchasing to sign off on.
All the calendar, task, website stuff ended up dying away, because what we really needed was a good document management system, with optionally some simple signoff loops and notifications.
That was great. Yes, it was just unix like tools with a window. That is the craigslist of os improvements.
It really was the use case, but the simple one. I saw plenty of power users try to do complex and ultimately fragile uses that died away.
In the case of this user, I love the idea of turning an email to an action, but I also need to add that to my action board and assign it, and check people time, at which point the simple action only makes sense for individuals, not teams or orgs. and I need to add a couple missing actions, and summarize. So suddenly the all in one is a marginally useful tool that is also a straightjacket. And then I go back to outlook and jira and excel and trelli or whatever.
This isn't true. It used to be, as a new fab would appreciably add quantity. At 1M wspm in 2015, a new 100k fab at the most modern node would add effectively 20-30% capacity, and usually multiple.players at once, since all had cash.
Now, the relative shrink is tiny, so capacity adds are just wspm, in effect, and that gives 5%.
Put differently, you cannot invest your way out of the shortage, or into meaningful share....so you take profit.
Or The Crossing, which, at least for the first third is his sparest and best writing. At least, I prefer the marriage of the gothic sensibility and poetry with the classic western.
Old gen logic barely exists, and won't convert. The tools are wrong so it wouldn't yield. And there isnt the expertise (on tool recipes and integration) to do it.
Historically, memory is a sawtooth business. But history isn't a great guide here: 10 years ago, a new plant added meaningful capacity, as it came with a shrink of about 30%. Today....it doesn't. So it take huge capital to add a very small amount of capacity.
You can dream that things like 3d dram and 4f cells will help, but they are unlikely to offer enough with demand.
And finally, everyone running a dram plant has lived through these capacity boom bust cycles and the consequently layoffs and pay cuts. I suspect they are happy to take money this time. I would be in their place.
I do hope we see a new dram or dram-like designs. And that there are more efficient dedicated ai processors. And that models themselves become more memory efficient. But I don't really believe any of these come soon.