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cl42

2,839 カルマ登録 14 年前
Reach out to me on Twitter: @wojciech

投稿

Quiet, My Exoself

kevinkelly.substack.com
1 ポイント·投稿者 cl42·3 日前·0 コメント

[untitled]

1 ポイント·投稿者 cl42·8 日前·0 コメント

Neal Stephenson: Reflections on the Latest and Greatest Death of the Metaverse

nealstephenson.substack.com
13 ポイント·投稿者 cl42·4 か月前·2 コメント

Human Systems Research Submolt

moltbook.com
1 ポイント·投稿者 cl42·5 か月前·0 コメント

KdK part 2: a medical mystery from postwar Germany

nealstephenson.substack.com
4 ポイント·投稿者 cl42·6 か月前·0 コメント

Which genius from history would have been the best investor?

ft.com
1 ポイント·投稿者 cl42·7 か月前·0 コメント

Prediction markets barely make money; sportsbooks make money

ft.com
4 ポイント·投稿者 cl42·7 か月前·5 コメント

Fei-Fei Li's World Labs speeds up the world model race with Marble

techcrunch.com
2 ポイント·投稿者 cl42·8 か月前·0 コメント

Thank HN: Rainbows End

7 ポイント·投稿者 cl42·10 か月前·2 コメント

Andrew Ng says bottleneck in AI startups isn't coding – it's product management

businessinsider.com
120 ポイント·投稿者 cl42·11 か月前·146 コメント

コメント

cl42
·4 日前·議論
> To that end, making our compute available for rent means that we can only take it back if we can make more money on it ourselves; the only way we can do that is by leaning into what we are good at, not what I have spent too long wanting us to be. To put it another way, our best product decisions have been intuition validated by data and revealed preference; that’s how we’re going to approach AI.

What a great way to frame the strategy + opportunity cost. "We will make a bare minimum via reselling, and it's now up to us to prove we can do better."
cl42
·8 日前·議論
Does anyone know what a model like this would cost to build with today's compute?
cl42
·先月·議論
Your concept sounds interesting. I highly recommend you add a link to your startup on the job board or in your HN profile. Searching for Pascal with NYC, CPG, etc. key words doesn't yield your home page and I can't tell if teampascal.com has anything to do with you given it doesn't discuss CPG.
cl42
·3 か月前·議論
Goodbye Zachary's Karate Club, hello Sumida Penguin Romance Chart!
cl42
·4 か月前·議論
I'm building AthenaOS: https://athena-os.ai/

Basically OpenClaw but with investing dashboards for my portfolio, additional tools specifically for investing, and exploring an AI-Human collaboration on researching economics (check the 'community' tab).

The data models are all in markdown and Excel so that there's no lockin and you can manually edit positions, personalities, etc.

This comes from frustration around most investing tools basically scraping your personal data + forcing you to lock into subscriptions. I think it's now possible to just vibe code most of what one needs, aside form raw data subscriptions.

It's all open source, too: https://github.com/wgryc/athena-os
cl42
·4 か月前·議論
I'll add one more point. If you scroll through his Substack, a lot of his posts are incredibly negative and unproductive. I was (and continue to be) someone who cares deeply about responsible AI... But there's a difference between working on AI responsibly or pushing the debate, versus simply criticizing everything that is done as folly, useless, crap, etc.
cl42
·4 か月前·議論
"Everything can be taken from a man but one thing: the last of the human freedoms—to choose one’s attitude in any given set of circumstances, to choose one’s own way."

Fantastic book.
cl42
·6 か月前·議論
I hate all the portfolio tracking tools out there + don't understand why tools like FactSet or CapitalIQ cost so much.

... so I'm building an open source version.

Track all your trades in Excel, and get Sharpe ratios, Sortino ratios, or even pass it on to an LLM to have it recommend trades based on news feeds.

Planning to open source it in the next week or two, once I add the proper tests and docs! :)
cl42
·7 か月前·議論
I'm a huge Malick fan. If you are curious about his very unique style, this 20-minute video outlines why his cinematography is so unique and so powerful: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=waA3RXy13aA
cl42
·7 か月前·議論
That's a fascinating point, thanks for sharing. I wonder if prediction markets will 'asymptotically converge' into similar sports betting strategies.
cl42
·7 か月前·議論
The article talks about how prediction markets' sports books are significantly more profitable. This has less to do with financial structures and more to do with who wants to make bets and where.

According to the article, prediction markets make magnitudes more money on potentially illegal (by today's standards in the US, anyway) sports betting than true event contracts.
cl42
·7 か月前·議論
Have you considered launching your own weather prediction market instead?

Parametric insurance, energy traders, etc could be good markets.
cl42
·7 か月前·議論
Seems like this is the _President_ of the division, so sounds like there's a nontrivially-sized team to manage.
cl42
·7 か月前·議論
> Background Tasks.

Amazing. If this means no more management of Celery workers, then I am so happy! So nice to have this directly built _into_ Django, especially for very simple task scheduling.
cl42
·7 か月前·議論
That’s awesome, thanks!
cl42
·7 か月前·議論
Do you ever pair trade or hedge your shorts by buying indices? For example, short the quantum stocks but buy NASDAQ index (or call options) in case everything keeps going up?
cl42
·8 か月前·議論
This Yann LeCun lecture is a nice summary of the conceptual model behind JEPA (+ why he isn't a fan of autoregressive LLMs): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yUmDRxV0krg
cl42
·8 か月前·議論
> There is another thing called world models that involves predicting the state of something after some action. But this is a very very limited area of research. My understanding of this is that there just isn't much data of action->reaction.

Folks interested in this can look up Yann LeCun's work on world models and JEPA, which his team at Meta created. This lecture is a nice summary of his thinking on this space and also why he isn't a fan of autoregressive LLMs: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yUmDRxV0krg
cl42
·8 か月前·議論
Thanks for doing this. The song is beautiful and I highly recommend folks listen to it on Spotify/Youtube/whatever.
cl42
·9 か月前·議論
Fair point, and I should be more clear. The AI researchers I speak with don't expect AGI and are more reasonable in trying to build good tech rather than promising the world. My point was that these AI researchers aren't the ones inflating the bubble.