I've lost count how many times I inferred stuff by common sense and hunch, just to be proved wrong.
Our intuition is mostly off for statistical phenomena like confidence levels, odds of something happening again given some sample, some event being (statistically) relevant or not, etc.
My favorite configuration for my day job (big tech company, writing high availability storage firmware):
- Ubuntu
- Git, mercurial, fd-find, ripgrep, exa.
- Vim + spf13 + ctags + cscope as a fallback for text-only sessions.
- Eclipse CDT: most of my work is C/C++, huge code bases, kernel and userspace. Nothing beats CDT in terms of navigation (go to definition, call hierarchy, class hierarchy, to name a few). It's a little tricky and involving to get the indexing right, but totally worth it.
- Gdb and crash (life savers!).
For my side projects (mostly rails), it's pretty much the same as above on a mac and vscode instead of eclipse.