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hcmacro

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投稿

Bertrand Russell “On History”

users.drew.edu
1 ポイント·投稿者 hcmacro·3 年前·0 コメント

Who Is René Girard? and Why Does Silicon Valley Care?

berfrois.com
8 ポイント·投稿者 hcmacro·3 年前·0 コメント

Sports Under 150 Game

austinkrance.com
1 ポイント·投稿者 hcmacro·3 年前·0 コメント

Shock Treatment in the Emergency Room

prospect.org
1 ポイント·投稿者 hcmacro·3 年前·0 コメント

BMJ: Evaluating trendsin private equity ownership and impacts on health outcomes [pdf]

bmj.com
2 ポイント·投稿者 hcmacro·3 年前·0 コメント

Odds of a Hard Landing Are Increasing

researchaffiliates.com
1 ポイント·投稿者 hcmacro·3 年前·0 コメント

How Pundits’ Inflation Myth Crushed the Working Class

levernews.com
2 ポイント·投稿者 hcmacro·3 年前·0 コメント

Neoliberalism's Final Stronghold

project-syndicate.org
3 ポイント·投稿者 hcmacro·3 年前·0 コメント

Why One Firm's 3,612% Return Is Drawing the Ire of Hedge Funds

bloomberg.com
1 ポイント·投稿者 hcmacro·3 年前·0 コメント

コメント

hcmacro
·2 年前·議論
Nope, the Fed cares about PCE because that’s the inflation measure it targets over time. Consequently, core PCE and core PCE services ex-housing.

CPI and PPI matter for policy setting to the extent that their components feed into PCE. But Core CPI Services-XH and Core PCE Serviced-XH have little overlap in their components. The Fed is concerned about the latter falling because real rates, in the model that the Fed uses, get tighter the longer rates remain on hold. Just look at the last quarterly SEP—it forecasts PCE not CPI.
hcmacro
·2 年前·議論
CPI ain't PCE my guy. Other than suggesting a firm January print, this print has not really changed forecasts for core PCE--the Fed's preferred target---to hit 2% yoy by May.
hcmacro
·2 年前·議論
Rather than repeat the "markets remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent refrain," I will give you a less common reason for caution...

If you're right, you'll likely be tempted to short again.
hcmacro
·2 年前·議論
quite possibly one of the dumbest things you can do, even if you end up being right at some point.
hcmacro
·2 年前·議論
same same
hcmacro
·2 年前·議論
You should look up Wynne Godley and Sectoral Balances.
hcmacro
·2 年前·議論
I'd say Japan (China followed Singapore in development).
hcmacro
·3 年前·議論
So Stripe going to get marked down again? Tough to IPO this far below your valuation high water mark, at least judging from its closest comp.
hcmacro
·3 年前·議論
And not too many years later, Northern Europe went to war with the Sun King. Longevity regression is equally likely if that happens again.
hcmacro
·3 年前·議論
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/05/31/magazine/ai-start-up-acce...
hcmacro
·3 年前·議論
Read Prospects for Industrial Civilization by Bertrand Russell and you'll see that the reactionary turn by the "Old Left" was inevitable.
hcmacro
·3 年前·議論
Perhaps the most terrifying headline I've read in a while.
hcmacro
·3 年前·議論
Hopefully the laid off employees fared better than the retail bagholders.
hcmacro
·3 年前·議論
The Last of Us
hcmacro
·4 年前·議論
I get the sense that cultural malaise and managerial rent-seeking afflict many legacy firms (outside of tech). In some ways, such corporations feel like they're converging with peers in Japan---a gerontocratic society with limited social mobility (not a novel observation). If corporate America is indeed undergoing a process of "Japanification," such a phenomenon would likely result in outcomes at odds with received wisdom on career success. The type of worker "unruliness" documented here then should be unsurprising.

(As an aside, I find it interesting that Japan has had pretty low levels of unemployment over the past twenty years. One might even expect this in a paternalistic society that bolsters rent-seeking incumbents. Hence, individuals can feel "stuck" even as the media superficially assesses data to fit the narrative of a "hot economy.").

(Another observation, it's funny for the article to cite an executive comparing Americans to people in a country where menial workers are paid slave wages.)