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tgarrett

57 カルマ登録 2 年前

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tgarrett
·13 日前·議論
> That isn't the vast majority of traditional software engineering work, and arguably is better called applied physics or applied science.

Fair enough, and yeah definitions are always going to be somewhat fuzzy. Still it seems safe to assume there are also a lot of novel things going on in games, embedded, finance, AI itself of course... Generally I can't help but feel that we have only dipped our toes into the vast ocean of program space, and I'm curious what else is out there.
tgarrett
·13 日前·議論
> Outside of the very few computer scientists working on novel algorithms,

It's a quite a bit broader than that: for instance most of science and engineering is heavily supported by simulations (very useful when the system you're considering doesn't have perfect spherical or cylindrical symmetry), and there is still tons of algorithm development going on. The world is vast, and thus so is the domain of programming.

And halfway through 2026, AI has become a very interesting and helpful partner in algo research too. If it does continue to pull away and zip off to ASI land, hopefully we can leverage the resulting magical technology and catch back up with it...
tgarrett
·先月·議論
I've seen From Russia With Love, Goldfinger, and Thunderball I'll have you know.
tgarrett
·3 か月前·議論
I did provide the data in my first comment, here it is again:

https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat/All_U.S._Hurricanes.htm...

The analysis is easy: copy and paste the data from that link into a new text file, then write a python script that goes through it and counts the number of Cat 1, 2, 3, 4 & 5 hurricanes that make landfall per year (the "Highest Saffir-Simpson U.S. Category" column), and then make the plots: I used gnuplot. You can then do fits to the data if you'd like, but the flat trend lines over the last 175 years are obvious.

I encourage you to not trust me and to do it yourself, but I'm also happy to share my script, let me know.

As far as the hurricane trajectory trend lines go, they are clearly highly stochastic: check out e.g. both the spaghetti plot predictions for various storms from previous years, and ask google for a map of where they grow (grew...) oranges in Florida.
tgarrett
·3 か月前·議論
So what you are saying is that, yes there has not been an overall increase in hurricanes hitting the US over the last 175 years, but climate change has been specifically and precisely steering the hurricanes towards the orange growing regions of Florida in recent years, and is therefore to blame for the crop failures.

You have to diagnose a problem correctly in order to have a chance at solving it.
tgarrett
·3 か月前·議論
Yeah, exploring data is always interesting, sometimes super interesting, and it's also healthy to approach things with a mixture of open-mindedness and skepticism - a sort of zen habit you can get better at with practice. Ideas serve me, not the other way around.
tgarrett
·3 か月前·議論
> That's not the point being made: the article clearly states that those areas did not previously get hit by storms at this level.

This is the conventional wisdom, and it is completely falsified by the actual data that I linked to. I wrote a python script to go process and plot it, and there has been zero increase in Cat 1, 2, 3, or 4 storms hitting the US since 1851 (there are only 4 Cat 5s listed total).

Try it for yourself.
tgarrett
·3 か月前·議論
>The areas they grow the oranges never used to get hurricanes.

That's not correct: we have good data going back to 1851:

https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat/All_U.S._Hurricanes.htm...

Search for "FL": hurricanes have been hitting Florida frequently for the last 175 years.
tgarrett
·4 か月前·議論
Plasma physicist here, I haven't tried 5.4 yet, but in general I am very impressed with the recent upgrades that started arriving in the fall of 2025: for tasks like manipulating analytic systems of equations, quickly developing new features for simulation codes, and interpreting and designing experiments (with pictures) they have become much stronger. I've been asking questions and probing them for several years now out of curiosity, and they suddenly have developed deep understanding (Gemini 2.5 <<< Gemini 3.1) and become very useful. I totally get the current SV vibes, and am becoming a lot more ambitious in my future plans.