The reason is because AI is viewed by the powers that be as inexorably linked to national security. If you haven't noticed, every lab out there has the same excuse when pressed about the disruption caused by their technology - "we do it or else China does."
Of course not. This coming crash will be where we learn that tech is "too big to fail" in the same way that the financial system is. They'll let one player fail (likely Anthropic, due to the constant fighting with the government) and bail out the rest.
I think at the end of the day, we're still able to produce really effective technology and products. Like the economy is still functioning. I feel like this is different from the Soviet situation where the problems were more related to product quality and shortages and black markets.
We were stuck in the Gilded Age for decades before Roosevelt came along and started big trust-busting efforts. I expect a similar situation to play out here. We're probably in the middle of it in retrospect.
I wish I had a good answer to give you here. I really don't understand financial markets. I more so just have a basic understanding of history and technology - my individual stock purchases are mostly me taking my knowledge base and extrapolating into the future and trying to figure out what companies I think are likely to grow.
As you can probably guess, I mostly try to stick to low-cost index funds, because my above "strategy" is nothing more than gambling.
I'm curious as to what your answers to the question are?
... does it? Are you seeing something I'm not seeing? Number one is that this just doesn't appear to be true (non-lite versions beat it across the board it seems), number two is that this specifically is a low-cost bulk model and not a SOTA frontier model, of course the benchmarks are lower.
This is probably a hot take and I am by no means a financial expert and this is probably quite wrong. I personally think that attempting to value these companies using the same methodology as the history of all American companies is fundamentally wrong. Sure, some mom and pop small local regional business that overperformed is probably more likely to underperform. But when it comes to big tech companies, these companies are operating a data and capital flywheel that doesn't easily just slow down. I mean, you look at the history of these computer tech companies, especially software companies. They really haven't slowed down. Like, look at Microsoft. It's just been growing from the very beginning, pretty much.
What are you even talking about? Everyone knows that Anthropic is drastically subsidizing their plans. It's actually the exact opposite of what you're talking about. The costs are extremely high and the prices are actually what's being subsidized and cheap right now.
Yeah, it's not that computer use is the most theoretically optimal paradigm, but there's a reasonable case that given the constraints of modern software systems and how they're built, that it's the most realistically optimal paradigm.
It depends on what you consider ineffectual to mean. Ineffectual at making new products and innovating? Yes, definitely. Ineffectual at preserving business momentum and continuing to grow profits? Well, the latest numbers speak for themselves.
Is there really a killer app here though? I've tried it and I think the hardware is really cool, but it doesn't really strike me that any of the software justifies the purchase price.
Can you go into a bit more detail about what exactly it is that you are predicting? This is interesting, and definitely cuts against the grain that the rest of these comments are going with.