It's unfortunately far, far more true than whatever lead Meta still has over Apple on the VR headset side.
Also it's not just the chip itself, but moreso the whole hardware-sofrware vertical integration. Despite being a decade-long Apple-hater, ever since I got an M2 max macbook from work I simply have never touched my Windows/Linux Thinkpads again. The difference in user experience isn't even on a generational level, but more of a I-can't-imagine-how-Apple's-competitors-can-begin-to-close-this-gap level. Sadly I think all this talk of Quest-vs-AVP war is just an illusion, the outcome is very much preordained at this point.
Yeah that's a common statistical fallacy -- if your goal is to predict the likelihood of AGI becoming a reality in a few centuries, what you really want is "of all the things medieval farmers thought would happen, how many ended up actually happening", not "of all the things that happened, how many did medieval farmers think of"
While I don't have the exact numbers, if you used the correct formula, you'll find that P(AGI happening in a few centuries) to be in the range of "pretty friggin low"