Tesla’s Musk Takes Charge of Model 3 Production as Problems Persist(theinformation.com)
theinformation.com
Tesla’s Musk Takes Charge of Model 3 Production as Problems Persist
https://www.theinformation.com/articles/teslas-musk-takes-charge-of-model-3-production-as-problems-persist
70 comments
I don't really get this. "What's the story here? Everything is running exactly as planned. Now I'm sleeping at the factory because it's hell."
One of those things doesn't sound much like the other.
One of those things doesn't sound much like the other.
Most people who understand how difficult it is to produce a new line of cars, or have been listening closely to what Elon has been saying pretty much expected that ramping up production would be hard and Tesla would miss their goals many times. Tesla has never delivered a car on time. But there is enormous demand for this car and they will eventually make it work. At the current run rate they are already able to produce around 100,000 Model 3 per year, and are ramping up quickly
This will become a problem if they run out of cash. Not delivering as many cars as planned is fine if you make a profit (or at least positive cash flow). But burning more cash than expected can be problematic. Especially if you constantly miss deadlines which means investors don't know if they should believe any of your plans.
The second issue is that of competition. Model S didn't have any meaningful EV competition. Model 3 competition is still comparably low but this will look different in 2-3 years. If they produce enough cars until then, prospective buyers will eventually switch to another brand.
The second issue is that of competition. Model S didn't have any meaningful EV competition. Model 3 competition is still comparably low but this will look different in 2-3 years. If they produce enough cars until then, prospective buyers will eventually switch to another brand.
Someone will give them cash. Elon will if nothing else.
Does he still have that much cash? Would expect that SpaceX would have to cut if Tesla really needs money. I don't think Musk has much cash lying around that's not already in one of his companies.
Enough people believe in Tesla that they can certainly find a way to generate cash. As a WORST case scenario i’m sure another auto maker would love to recapitalize them in order to acquire their technology. Tesla actually going out of existence seems unlikely to me at this point.
This is why I don't think it's a very big problem for Tesla. There is a big difference between not delivering (so far Magic Leap for example) and slow delivery.
Most people who ordered a Tesla realy want one so they are just going to wait.
Maybe some shareholderd might see it as a problem because they could have sold more Teslas in the same amount of time. But it's not that they are cheap and everyone can afford one.
Most people who ordered a Tesla realy want one so they are just going to wait.
Maybe some shareholderd might see it as a problem because they could have sold more Teslas in the same amount of time. But it's not that they are cheap and everyone can afford one.
Why would he even engage this, he just turned it into an actual story.
I can only imagine how much experience and knowledge Elon is gaining by micromanaging (a good thing) this much, compared to say how much the top executive at other vehicle manufacturers have evolved to become.
Edit: Downvotes on this comment? Really? What, do you think you're able to imagine the amount of experience he's getting? Do you think the top execs at other manufacturers have the same experience and hands-on approach?
Edit: Downvotes on this comment? Really? What, do you think you're able to imagine the amount of experience he's getting? Do you think the top execs at other manufacturers have the same experience and hands-on approach?
From personal experience I can say that I am certain that both Dieter Zetsche and Harald Krüger know more about basically every aspect of producing cars than Elon Musk ever will. Both are very much hands-on people and have 3-4 decades of experience.
Even if they have lots of experience, they failed to see how that the market was going to have to seriously build evs. It took an 'idiot outsider' like Musk to push it as far as it can go. and now we know that separately from the business success of tesla that it's possible to make successful and interesting electric cars like teslas, but also other companies have interesting cars.
Yet they never thought to move away from making cars with internal combustion engines and 2k parts vs 200.
Say what you want about how long it is taking them to get going, Tesla make excellent cars and the longer they make them the better they will be.
Say what you want about how long it is taking them to get going, Tesla make excellent cars and the longer they make them the better they will be.
You know all 3 of these people well? Wow.
"Zetsche joined Daimler-Benz in 1976, working in the research department. In 1981, he became Assistant Development Manager at the Vehicles business unit. He became a member of DaimlerChrysler's Board of Management in 1998 and served as the President/CEO of Chrysler Group from mid-2000 to 31 December 2005, where he was credited with a turnaround of DCX's American operations. Since 1 January 2006 he succeeded Jürgen Schrempp as Chairman of DaimlerChrysler (now Daimler AG), being succeeded in the position of Chrysler Group CEO by Thomas W. LaSorda."
and
"Mr. Krüger joined BMW in April 1992 and served as Director of its Production Strategy, Control and Planning Division. He managed BMW Group's engine plant at Hams Hall in the UK and served a number of positions within the Human Resources division. He served as the Chairman and Director of Rolls-Royce Motor Cars Ltd. from May 1, 2012 to March 31, 2013. Mr. Krüger serves as a Director of BMW Manufacturing Co. LLC."
Yep, quite a fair bet that any of those two know far more about auto-making than Musk ever will.
and
"Mr. Krüger joined BMW in April 1992 and served as Director of its Production Strategy, Control and Planning Division. He managed BMW Group's engine plant at Hams Hall in the UK and served a number of positions within the Human Resources division. He served as the Chairman and Director of Rolls-Royce Motor Cars Ltd. from May 1, 2012 to March 31, 2013. Mr. Krüger serves as a Director of BMW Manufacturing Co. LLC."
Yep, quite a fair bet that any of those two know far more about auto-making than Musk ever will.
Ever is a long timeframe especially if Tesla continues selling double yoy.
I'm not sure how Musk's experience grows with sales on a linear basis.
Or how sustainable "double yoy" sales are.
Or how sustainable "double yoy" sales are.
Double yoy? Where?
https://www.statista.com/statistics/502208/tesla-quarterly-v...
https://www.statista.com/statistics/502208/tesla-quarterly-v...
I totally believe that reading resumes can support the conclusion, but stannol claimed they knew this info from personal experience.
How is that your personal experience?
The person who posted that wasn't the same person.
I think the reason why you are getting downvotes is "micromanaging (a good thing)"
I don't mean to overly shill for "In Search of Excellence". (And yeah, I remember when it came out.)
But I just happened to catch the bulk of an hour long interview with its author, Tom Peters, today.
https://the1a.org/shows/2018-04-02/excellence-explained
And the parent comment reminds me of what he had to say about MBWA -- Management By Wandering Around.
It doesn't exactly fit what it appears Musk is currently doing. But as for the experience gained and benefit of being down on the floor, on the front line. Well, Peters' enthusiasm and description of same, seemed on point, to me.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Management_by_wandering_around
If there are problems, at least Musk is not sitting in his office, learning of them and trying to deal with them through layers of reports (both people and paper/electrons/photons).
P.S. As a possible counter-balance to this, I'll mention the complaints that have been reported about worker welfare on those same production lines. To the extent those are true, they would be in opposition to the practices Peters espouses.
But I just happened to catch the bulk of an hour long interview with its author, Tom Peters, today.
https://the1a.org/shows/2018-04-02/excellence-explained
And the parent comment reminds me of what he had to say about MBWA -- Management By Wandering Around.
It doesn't exactly fit what it appears Musk is currently doing. But as for the experience gained and benefit of being down on the floor, on the front line. Well, Peters' enthusiasm and description of same, seemed on point, to me.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Management_by_wandering_around
If there are problems, at least Musk is not sitting in his office, learning of them and trying to deal with them through layers of reports (both people and paper/electrons/photons).
P.S. As a possible counter-balance to this, I'll mention the complaints that have been reported about worker welfare on those same production lines. To the extent those are true, they would be in opposition to the practices Peters espouses.
See also: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Genchi_Genbutsu
Also liked from Wikipedia:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gemba#Gemba_walk
If I had to pick two tools from Lean production methods that everyone at every level of any company should use, it would be Go and See (Genchi Genbutsu) and Ask Why 5 Times.
Also liked from Wikipedia:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gemba#Gemba_walk
If I had to pick two tools from Lean production methods that everyone at every level of any company should use, it would be Go and See (Genchi Genbutsu) and Ask Why 5 Times.
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I have no interest or involvment in Tesla. But from an outsider's perspective I can't help but notice that when you're this little company with no chance of making it, the press is very bulish about your company.
As soon as you become large, they look up at you and can't wait to see you fall, overly negative.
Who thought making cars was difficult? And mass production? And electrical cars, pushing the boundaries or batteries.
The light are still on in the factory, so the company's doing well.
As soon as you become large, they look up at you and can't wait to see you fall, overly negative.
Who thought making cars was difficult? And mass production? And electrical cars, pushing the boundaries or batteries.
The light are still on in the factory, so the company's doing well.
His big problem is over promise. Yes, he promises big but does not deliver. The press loves to play both sides. It reports the promises and the lack of delivery on his part too. The press couldn't care either way as long as it brings in readers.
He only overpromises when it comes to timelines. Most other things he actually achieves. Elontime is a real thing though...
FWIW a Martian year is 687 days.
Unfortunately that's not their financial year. They still need to generate cash or find more investors.
Oh come on ! The guy delivered the first practical electrical car and a freaking spaceship 10 time cheapers than the competition.
Show me somebody in this comment thread that remotely matches this.
Of course he messes it up and he is late. He is not creating a twitter clone.
Show me somebody in this comment thread that remotely matches this.
Of course he messes it up and he is late. He is not creating a twitter clone.
He still overpromises frequently, the model 3 is one example. His claims of how soon Tesla's vehicles will be self-driving ready is another.
I would say the big problem is financial. Tesla is not profitable and needs money. The thing which keeps the lights on is the willingness of investors to keep supporting high valuations of stock and bonds.
> But from an outsider's perspective I can't help but notice that when you're this little company with no chance of making it, the press is very bulish about your company. As soon as you become large, they look up at you and can't wait to see you fall, overly negative.
This isn't just a press bias, but a seemingly-universal human bias.
[1] https://undark.org/article/why-we-root-for-the-underdog/
This isn't just a press bias, but a seemingly-universal human bias.
[1] https://undark.org/article/why-we-root-for-the-underdog/
People are so excited about Tesla that they may overlook the risks. It is responsible of the press to highlight the problems Tesla faces so people can make responsible financial decisions when buying Tesla bonds and stocks, and so Tesla is pressured to minimize these risks.
There seems to be a strong anti-Tesla campaign afoot. I'm not surprised given that the entire auto industry wants them to fail and a significant portion of the auto industry (and unions, etc.) want EVs to fail in general.
Tesla seems to be having some severe growing pains, but I have learned not to count Elon or any of his ventures out. Self-landing reusable rockets were impossible too according to pretty much the entire aerospace industry. If it comes down to it Tesla could still raise quite a bit of money almost overnight, albeit probably with more dilution than they would prefer. I have little doubt that they will eventually scale up. Question is how much blood they will have to spill in the form of liquidity and market cap before they get there.
Tesla seems to be having some severe growing pains, but I have learned not to count Elon or any of his ventures out. Self-landing reusable rockets were impossible too according to pretty much the entire aerospace industry. If it comes down to it Tesla could still raise quite a bit of money almost overnight, albeit probably with more dilution than they would prefer. I have little doubt that they will eventually scale up. Question is how much blood they will have to spill in the form of liquidity and market cap before they get there.
> Self-landing reusable rockets were impossible too according to pretty much the entire aerospace industry.
Only if they have forgotten the DC-X, which I doubt they have done.
Only if they have forgotten the DC-X, which I doubt they have done.
of course the dc-x was yet another different flight vehicle that wasn't given enough time to be successful. and it was a bit different in that there wasn't a separate capsule from the launch rocket. if musk had his passionate engineering self behind it he could have made it work.
[deleted]
> Self-landing reusable rockets were impossible too according to pretty much the entire aerospace industry.
I guess they didn't ask the people who designed and built the Apollo lunar landing modules in the 1960s?
I guess they didn't ask the people who designed and built the Apollo lunar landing modules in the 1960s?
The lunar module was neither self-landing nor reusable.
The lunar module was navigated and landed by a human pilot (with computer assistance).
The descent stage stayed on the Moon, and wasn't reused (except as a launch platform for the ascent stage). The ascent stage also wasn't reused - after the astronauts exited from the ascent stage into the command module, the ascent stage was jettisoned to crash into the lunar surface (or sent into solar orbit). Only the command module returned to Earth.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apollo_Lunar_Module
The lunar module was navigated and landed by a human pilot (with computer assistance).
The descent stage stayed on the Moon, and wasn't reused (except as a launch platform for the ascent stage). The ascent stage also wasn't reused - after the astronauts exited from the ascent stage into the command module, the ascent stage was jettisoned to crash into the lunar surface (or sent into solar orbit). Only the command module returned to Earth.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apollo_Lunar_Module
There is an implicit "on earth". Gravity wells being vastly different. If the earth was bigger then we wouldn't even be able to get to orbit.
Wouldn't we just need to generate more velocity?
Easier said than done. Rockets have to carry their own fuel, so they are heaviest at launch. If you’re in a deeper gravity well, then you need a longer burn to reach escape velocity, and then also more thrust at launch because you have to carry more fuel (which means still more fuel...)
It never becomes mathematically impossible to achieve escape, but it can become engineering-impossible, ie the propellant fraction becomes so high that it’s impossible to build a structure that can contain the propellant and maintain mechanical stability. Just for reference, modern rockets are 90+ percent propellant by mass.
For more, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/station/expeditions/exped...
It never becomes mathematically impossible to achieve escape, but it can become engineering-impossible, ie the propellant fraction becomes so high that it’s impossible to build a structure that can contain the propellant and maintain mechanical stability. Just for reference, modern rockets are 90+ percent propellant by mass.
For more, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/station/expeditions/exped...
The press loves controversy.
Learn much from overcommitting and under-delivering yet [1]
Still waiting on the self-driving vaporware that thousands paid advance for...
1. https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/823727035088416768 3 months maybe, 6 months definitely 23 Jan 2017
Still waiting on the self-driving vaporware that thousands paid advance for...
1. https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/823727035088416768 3 months maybe, 6 months definitely 23 Jan 2017
The NHTSA faulted Tesla for the last fatal crash and its likely they will get faulted for the current. I am just shocked that after this one that they haven't suspended its use. The level of chutzpah this company operates at is very dangerous to its future but the public as well.
The production issues are a whole different can of worms but the autonomous driving accidents are what the public sees.
People need to understand that Tesla is not the only company that can deliver self driving hardware nor are they the only manufacturer of EVs. They are currently the maker of the more desired EV but with some of the old school automakers joining the fray they will see their high end model profit vanish.
finally, I am still not convinced they ever plan to actually sell a base model.
downvote edit Please see an owner recreation using the same version AP with the same condition zhttps://youtu.be/6QCF8tVqM3I
What is the rational thought it permitting that on the road.
The production issues are a whole different can of worms but the autonomous driving accidents are what the public sees.
People need to understand that Tesla is not the only company that can deliver self driving hardware nor are they the only manufacturer of EVs. They are currently the maker of the more desired EV but with some of the old school automakers joining the fray they will see their high end model profit vanish.
finally, I am still not convinced they ever plan to actually sell a base model.
downvote edit Please see an owner recreation using the same version AP with the same condition zhttps://youtu.be/6QCF8tVqM3I
What is the rational thought it permitting that on the road.
Why aren't you convinced they ever plan to sell a base model? They've been very clear when in their production schedule they would ship the base model. It makes sense to get the production nailed down with all possible options then scale back for basic models then to start basic and go through production pains making more complex models.
I would think you always sell the cheap model after selling the expensive ones, especially if you are a smaller company with less money coming through the pipes.
They don't have to suspend Autopilot as legally they can claim they require you to be fully alert at all times. Of-course this negates all benefits of Autopilot and still let's them continue to scam people into selling Tesla's as more safer than common adaptive cruise control.
https://youtu.be/6QCF8tVqM3I
that is what happened in the recent fatality, tell me how that is even remotely acceptable regardless of disclaimers. I seriously doubt adaptive cruise control would do the same, the majority of them work by following other vehicles.
that is what happened in the recent fatality, tell me how that is even remotely acceptable regardless of disclaimers. I seriously doubt adaptive cruise control would do the same, the majority of them work by following other vehicles.
The same rationale that applies for allowing cars with Cruise Control? Is it impossible to have a fatal crash when you set the car on cruise control and doze off? Chances are probably exponentially higher than that of a Tesla on an Autopilot.
No, the same rationale does not apply at all. It's not even close. Cruise control does nothing but maintain a set speed. No steering, no lane assist, nothing else. All drivers know that if they set cruise control, they are still in control of the car and have to remain aware of the road to handle all the actual driving while their foot gets a break. On the other hand, here was a conversation with my dad in his Model 3 yesterday:
Me: Why aren't your hands on the wheel?
Him: They don't need to be. It tells me once in a while when I need to touch the wheel.
Think about that for a minute. This is representative of your average driver. People are so blindly trusting of autopilot that they deliberately don't even touch the wheel at all, opting instead to play with their phone until the car nags them to pay attention for one second.
This is so completely different than cruise control that the two are barely comparable in terms of driver mindset.
Me: Why aren't your hands on the wheel?
Him: They don't need to be. It tells me once in a while when I need to touch the wheel.
Think about that for a minute. This is representative of your average driver. People are so blindly trusting of autopilot that they deliberately don't even touch the wheel at all, opting instead to play with their phone until the car nags them to pay attention for one second.
This is so completely different than cruise control that the two are barely comparable in terms of driver mindset.
That's not even the average driver, but an early adopter. The average driver would more likely think they can take a nap in the back seat while autopilot drives them to the office.
>The same rationale that applies for allowing cars with Cruise Control?
Cruise control ll control the steering? I thought it just maintain the speed...
Cruise control ll control the steering? I thought it just maintain the speed...
I think Musk is outstanding, but I could never see how he could run SpaceX, Tesla, OpenAI, the Boaring Company, Hyperloop all at the same time. It could be twice as Smart as the next smartest individual on the planet but there’s no free lunch. Time spent in one place is time given up somewhere else. We’ve known that Tesla has had production problems for a long time and if I was on the board I would have said drop all of your side projects and focus on fixing this company. I’m sure Musk has fired people for a lot less.
Musk has tweeted:
“Can’t believe you’re even writing about this. My job as CEO is to focus on what’s most critical, which is currently Model 3 production. Doug, who I regard as one of the world’s most talented engineering execs, is focused on vehicle engineering.”
https://mobile.twitter.com/elonmusk/status/98091067176319385...
“Can’t believe you’re even writing about this. My job as CEO is to focus on what’s most critical, which is currently Model 3 production. Doug, who I regard as one of the world’s most talented engineering execs, is focused on vehicle engineering.”
https://mobile.twitter.com/elonmusk/status/98091067176319385...
He has also tweeted :
"About a year ago, I asked Doug to manage both engineering & production. He agreed that Tesla needed eng & prod better aligned, so we don’t design cars that are crazy hard to build. Right now, tho, better to divide & conquer, so I’m back to sleeping at factory. Car biz is hell …"
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/980913157739765761
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/980913157739765761
This article feels a bit over reaching to meet the current narrative that Tesla is failing. As someone who has owned a Tesla, I'd much rather they ramp when they are ready to ramp than skip steps just to hit their targets. QA is a very important step that they have to get right.
Here's an article not behind a paywall:
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/04/02/elon-musk-takes-charge-of-te...
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/04/02/elon-musk-takes-charge-of-te...
Thanks!
I thought he was already sleeping at the factory..
I wish success to Tesla, at least a little bit, but I'm really curious to know how they fixed their assembly line
I wish success to Tesla, at least a little bit, but I'm really curious to know how they fixed their assembly line
Ah yes, the tried-and-true method of jump-starting a project by adding managers.
Wait. The author wants me to pay for what appears to be an outside-in, uneducated, irrelevant take on Tesla's internal problems? No thank you. Let them deal with it.
paywalled
"About a year ago, I asked Doug to manage both engineering & production. He agreed that Tesla needed eng & prod better aligned, so we don’t design cars that are crazy hard to build. Right now, tho, better to divide & conquer, so I’m back to sleeping at factory. Car biz is hell …"
[1] https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/980910671763193856
[2] https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/980913157739765761