OPSEC critique of the Michigan Governor kidnap plot(twitter.com)
twitter.com
OPSEC critique of the Michigan Governor kidnap plot
https://twitter.com/thegrugq/status/1314237833276612609
66 comments
This part about wanting to be conquerors really made it clear to me: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ej09htBVkAADsqu.jpg . These are just people who've ended up being "nobodies" in society, probably feeling jealous of successful people, and wanting to be seen as heroes. They are (un-)surprisingly no different to most jihadists: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qlbirlSA-dc
Basically describing the conditions of a majority on social media...
It always surprises me how hard it seems for people to take OpSec seriously (whether for terrorist plots or darknet markets). There are really a few basic ground rules that always seem to be violated, even by those with seemingly sufficient experience, like Ross Ulbricht.
On the note of OpSec, there's an awesome project called USBKill, which probably would've saved Ross Ulbricht from prison.
> USBKill is anti-forensic software distributed via GitHub, written in Python for the BSD, Linux and OS X operating systems. It is designed to serve as a kill switch if the computer on which it is installed should fall under the control of individuals or entities the owner or operator does not wish it to. It is free software, available under the GNU General Public License. [1]
[0]: https://github.com/hephaest0s/usbkill
[1]: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/USBKill
On the note of OpSec, there's an awesome project called USBKill, which probably would've saved Ross Ulbricht from prison.
> USBKill is anti-forensic software distributed via GitHub, written in Python for the BSD, Linux and OS X operating systems. It is designed to serve as a kill switch if the computer on which it is installed should fall under the control of individuals or entities the owner or operator does not wish it to. It is free software, available under the GNU General Public License. [1]
[0]: https://github.com/hephaest0s/usbkill
[1]: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/USBKill
I've also thought about this, why most terrorists are so dumb.
I think it's because if they were smart, they would realize how hard it is to get away with it. This is literally one of the few criminal acts where no expenses will be spared in catching the perps.
Also, smart people tend to do something with their life, so they are less inclined to be attracted by terrorism.
Regarding Ross, once they figured out his name, it was over for him, USBKill or not.
I think it's because if they were smart, they would realize how hard it is to get away with it. This is literally one of the few criminal acts where no expenses will be spared in catching the perps.
Also, smart people tend to do something with their life, so they are less inclined to be attracted by terrorism.
Regarding Ross, once they figured out his name, it was over for him, USBKill or not.
>I've also thought about this, why most terrorists are so dumb.
My theory is that when a terrorist does a stupid thing there are millions of dollars available, and thousands of people trained and ready, to take advantage of that stupidity.
When we do something stupid a couple people might point at us and say slightly mean things.
Everyone is stupid at least a few times a day.
My theory is that when a terrorist does a stupid thing there are millions of dollars available, and thousands of people trained and ready, to take advantage of that stupidity.
When we do something stupid a couple people might point at us and say slightly mean things.
Everyone is stupid at least a few times a day.
On the bright side, an attested (N=1) method for de-radicalising former terrorists has been simply hooking them up. They may be dumb, but they're not stupid:
https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2001/12/all-you...
So we must sacrifice one person to save many?
What makes you think it's a sacrifice rather than a reverse proselytization (or de-radicalization as some call it)?
For the flagger: quoting the opening line of Pride and Prejudice is simply a more verbose way to say /s.
(I have double checked, and all three of google, weibo, and yandex pull Austen up as the top hit for the key phrase.)
(I have double checked, and all three of google, weibo, and yandex pull Austen up as the top hit for the key phrase.)
Public perception about the average intelligence of any type of criminal is likely influenced by survivorship bias: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Survivorship_bias
Also note that criminals are the ones who failed. We don't get to see how the successful ones are. Same with terrorists.
Unlike most other crimes, a terrorist act that goes unnoticed is almost by definition unsuccessful.
Well, there's a conspicuously unoccupied middle ground between the two, but if the terrorist's goal is only to inflict harm, without necessarily revealing the reason or taking credit, they would presumably prefer their actions to look like a natural disaster, riot, (industrial/medical/etc) accident, forest fire, or other non-deliberate and/or non-planned event.
That is not terrorism though. The point of terrorism is to achieve political goals by spreading fear.
That's true by definition, sure, but that's not how governments actually use the word.
How would causing a riot not achieve political goals by spreading fear?
"Also, smart people tend to do something with their life,"
Dunno. The Unabomber had probably a higher IQ than most people on hackernews.
And on a side note: who cares about James bond? It is always the villain who makes or breaks a James bond movie. I am actually sad that Jet Lee never played the villain.
Dunno. The Unabomber had probably a higher IQ than most people on hackernews.
And on a side note: who cares about James bond? It is always the villain who makes or breaks a James bond movie. I am actually sad that Jet Lee never played the villain.
Your comment was extremely insightful. Thank you for this. I rarely favorite (to be fair I only knew about it recently) but...your comment is in my favorites.
I dunno. I believe it's actually pretty easy to get away with lots of crime. It's just that the smart ones don't get caught.
> Also, smart people tend to do something with their life, so they are less inclined to be attracted by terrorism.
that probably plays a role. And they are perhaps more likely to consider the ethical dimension.
> Also, smart people tend to do something with their life, so they are less inclined to be attracted by terrorism.
that probably plays a role. And they are perhaps more likely to consider the ethical dimension.
OpSec is HARD. It is a challenge for militaries, brilliant hackers and dumb criminals.
> There are really a few basic ground rules that always seem to be violated, even by those with seemingly sufficient experience, like Ross Ulbricht.
Well yes, for the people that get caught.
and then the DOJ always says "see! this proves you can't hide from us"
and everyone else on darknet is like "yeah here's the refined checklist implementation for how not to get caught and here's why" which should be like everyone's first purchase on any darknet market for $.99 and should be any vendor's primary first item for sale to gain reputation
I pretty much never see indictments that actually undermine the best practices.... you don't need to pay to understand the best practices, but it does save time to see what the tools are that implement those best practices, or understanding why some secret chat apps should be avoided versus others.
Well yes, for the people that get caught.
and then the DOJ always says "see! this proves you can't hide from us"
and everyone else on darknet is like "yeah here's the refined checklist implementation for how not to get caught and here's why" which should be like everyone's first purchase on any darknet market for $.99 and should be any vendor's primary first item for sale to gain reputation
I pretty much never see indictments that actually undermine the best practices.... you don't need to pay to understand the best practices, but it does save time to see what the tools are that implement those best practices, or understanding why some secret chat apps should be avoided versus others.
Getting caught is not just about OPSEC, but also visibility. The DOJ has limited time and resources, so will always go after the "big fish" and the cases that give them the best PR.
If you had two scenarios:
1. Great OPSEC, high profile
2. OK OPSEC, minimal profile
You're still at greater risk for scenario #1. When Ross Ulbricht did his Forbes interview and basically said "I dare the gov't to shut me down", he pretty much guaranteed they'd go to the ends of the earth to shut him down.
The only thing worse than committing multiple felonies is making the gov't look stupid or weak.
If you had two scenarios:
1. Great OPSEC, high profile
2. OK OPSEC, minimal profile
You're still at greater risk for scenario #1. When Ross Ulbricht did his Forbes interview and basically said "I dare the gov't to shut me down", he pretty much guaranteed they'd go to the ends of the earth to shut him down.
The only thing worse than committing multiple felonies is making the gov't look stupid or weak.
Right, you don’t want governments running half of the exit nodes looking for you, while posing as moderators, customers and running your whole website just to take you down in your ongoing crime.
But precise targeted activities that require investigation later are pretty ease to have sufficient OPSEC for.
But precise targeted activities that require investigation later are pretty ease to have sufficient OPSEC for.
Only correct you to say not about making the government look weak, it’s about the ego of the persons who are in leadership in those government organizations. Entirely about people and their careers and vanities and not so much about the government which belongs to us voters.
I mean if you see some dude with nothing for sale but "how to not get busted doing crimes really i promise.txt"...
More seriously, there's an element of performative deterrence in the way stuff like this gets handled. Giving people without the experience to know it's nonsense the idea they can't do dark web crimes and get caught probably cuts down on the rate of people dipping a toe into the exciting world of dark web crimes, where they can for example learn how to not get caught and then talk on the open web about how much they know I guess? What kind of opsec is that?
More seriously, there's an element of performative deterrence in the way stuff like this gets handled. Giving people without the experience to know it's nonsense the idea they can't do dark web crimes and get caught probably cuts down on the rate of people dipping a toe into the exciting world of dark web crimes, where they can for example learn how to not get caught and then talk on the open web about how much they know I guess? What kind of opsec is that?
there is different OPSEC for different attack vectors
in the universe of dark web activities, most of them are not crimes and of the crimes most of those do not require stonewalling an eventual multi-jurisdictional state actor
there are just different OPSEC models, if we aren't talking about crimes its fine to talk on the open web about them, some of those OPSEC models would still accomplish thwarting the aforementioned threat model.
in the universe of dark web activities, most of them are not crimes and of the crimes most of those do not require stonewalling an eventual multi-jurisdictional state actor
there are just different OPSEC models, if we aren't talking about crimes its fine to talk on the open web about them, some of those OPSEC models would still accomplish thwarting the aforementioned threat model.
USBkill is useful if you want to prevent cops from seeing what you have saved in your porn folder. It wont stop them from tapping your facebook chats. Or bugging your basement prepper shelter. Or tracking your cellphone movements. In cases like this, whether the cops can pull anything from your harddrive doesnt change anything.
The refusal to wear masks, which is a trivial form of "opsec" against infection, shows what happens.
It's boring, uncomfortable, unsexy, protects you against an outcome you think is low probability, and you don't find out if you're doing it right - only if you've done it wrong, by which time it's too late.
Besides, since these terrorists had no concrete grievance, only internet radicalization, they ended up doing more cosplay than effectiveness.
It's boring, uncomfortable, unsexy, protects you against an outcome you think is low probability, and you don't find out if you're doing it right - only if you've done it wrong, by which time it's too late.
Besides, since these terrorists had no concrete grievance, only internet radicalization, they ended up doing more cosplay than effectiveness.
A funny side note with that... there was a recent theft of $3000 worth of Crest Whitestrips in my city that got some news attention. It was 3x 40-50 year old white folks that did the theft; the woman distracted the clerk while the two men loaded up. All caught on camera. AND THEY DIDN’T WEAR MASKS.
They had every opportunity to cover up their faces in a completely socially acceptable way and didn’t. C’mon.
They had every opportunity to cover up their faces in a completely socially acceptable way and didn’t. C’mon.
I guess the only people who need to whiten their teeth right now are anti-maskers.
You never hear about the people who do take opsec seriously.
Criminals are not dumb, the ones you hear about are.
Criminals are not dumb, the ones you hear about are.
You pull the tails usb out and it does a far better job, this is shit software aimed at people with shit practices and there's simply no nice or pleasant way to say it.
Just fucking use tails if you are a terrorist intent on murdering billions of people.
Just fucking use tails if you are a terrorist intent on murdering billions of people.
If you're that ambitious of a terrorist you have faceless minions to travel to internet cafes in distant locations and access the internet for you. Using Tails wouldn't do a damn thing for such a high-profile target, though; Osama bin Laden didn't have interwebs at all in Abbottabad, and the US government still dropped in for a visit.
I once, just for the fun of the exercise, tried to set up an unused netbook and be as safe as possible.
It was incredibly difficult to not mess up, knowing what I know. In practice, I'd say it was usually convenience or rote behavior that caused me to 'compromise' the laptop.
It was a humbling experience, and while I had no aspirations to become a spy, it showed me how bad I'd probably be at it.
It was incredibly difficult to not mess up, knowing what I know. In practice, I'd say it was usually convenience or rote behavior that caused me to 'compromise' the laptop.
It was a humbling experience, and while I had no aspirations to become a spy, it showed me how bad I'd probably be at it.
Can someone explain how they thought taking over a state within the US would do anything?
Like even if they got out of Michigan which has its own militia and police force, along side its own line of succession, the feds would be descending on them from every angle either way and both governments would nullify the takeover attempt.
Can someone explain the line of reasoning here? I've only read headlines and it sounds too dumb to dedicate more thought on. Any summary about why this wasn't as dumb as it sounds would be helpful thanks.
Like even if they got out of Michigan which has its own militia and police force, along side its own line of succession, the feds would be descending on them from every angle either way and both governments would nullify the takeover attempt.
Can someone explain the line of reasoning here? I've only read headlines and it sounds too dumb to dedicate more thought on. Any summary about why this wasn't as dumb as it sounds would be helpful thanks.
These sorts of people always think they are the voice of a "silent majority". They think that thier actions will trigger an uprising. All the fat guys with ar-15s will come out of basements and rebiuld the country ... the right way this time. They are, every one of them, deluded narcisists.
They planned to kidnap the governor and then put her on "trial" which is terrorist-speak for murder.
Like most terrorist plots, this one didn't require the terrorists to take over the government.
It's about fear and media amplification of fear to (1) inspire like-minded individuals to join their cause and become terrorists, and (2) intimidate other government officials to fall in line.
Like most terrorist plots, this one didn't require the terrorists to take over the government.
It's about fear and media amplification of fear to (1) inspire like-minded individuals to join their cause and become terrorists, and (2) intimidate other government officials to fall in line.
thanks, yeah I saw that, earlier headlines were saying something closer to taking over Michigan government
It was as dumb as it sounds. These aren't serious people. Unfortunately, unserious people can still manage to be quite dangerous, if they put their minds to it.
> Can someone explain how they thought
They didn’t.
They didn’t.
Yeah, they were planning a kidnap-murder of a judge, not some kind of forcible state house coup.
Not that it's any less dumb, or that they're any less dangerous for it.
Not that it's any less dumb, or that they're any less dangerous for it.
> Can someone explain how they thought taking over a state within the US would do anything?
There is no logical case to be made, but there is a strong emotional one.
People need to belong and have a sense of purpose. For years, these people have had NRA TV and the militia movements telling them that they and their guns are the only thing keeping America from being destroyed from within. That Patriots like them, who are willing to die for their beliefs, are the only thing that save America.
After armed militia members descended on the Michigan state house earlier this year and demanded to let into the the legislative chambers, not only was there no real consequences, but many people hailed them as heroes, with President Trump himself tweeting his support with "FREE MICHIGAN!!!!"
They were encouraged and supported at every point of their escalation, and now people want to pretend it came out of no where.
Just a group of lone wolves, who happened to be acting together.
There is no logical case to be made, but there is a strong emotional one.
People need to belong and have a sense of purpose. For years, these people have had NRA TV and the militia movements telling them that they and their guns are the only thing keeping America from being destroyed from within. That Patriots like them, who are willing to die for their beliefs, are the only thing that save America.
After armed militia members descended on the Michigan state house earlier this year and demanded to let into the the legislative chambers, not only was there no real consequences, but many people hailed them as heroes, with President Trump himself tweeting his support with "FREE MICHIGAN!!!!"
They were encouraged and supported at every point of their escalation, and now people want to pretend it came out of no where.
Just a group of lone wolves, who happened to be acting together.
On Friday, the Washington Post profiled several members of the group.
"One of alleged plotters, 23-year-old Daniel Harris, attended a Black Lives Matter protest in June, telling the Oakland County Times he was upset about the killing of George Floyd and police violence."
Another alleged plotter, Brandon Caserta, called President Trump a 'tyrant' - adding 'Trump is not your friend, dude.' Caserta notably has an anarchist flag behind him in several videos he's recorded.
"One of alleged plotters, 23-year-old Daniel Harris, attended a Black Lives Matter protest in June, telling the Oakland County Times he was upset about the killing of George Floyd and police violence."
Another alleged plotter, Brandon Caserta, called President Trump a 'tyrant' - adding 'Trump is not your friend, dude.' Caserta notably has an anarchist flag behind him in several videos he's recorded.
The world is not so binary.
Just because one member attended a BLM rally and another was photographed with an Anarchy flag behind him does not mean they were immune to radicalization.
These people are part of the larger militia movement that has been egged on by the factors I mentioned. Whether or not you personally like Trump, having the president of the US cheer your cause is both validating and motivating.
Just because one member attended a BLM rally and another was photographed with an Anarchy flag behind him does not mean they were immune to radicalization.
These people are part of the larger militia movement that has been egged on by the factors I mentioned. Whether or not you personally like Trump, having the president of the US cheer your cause is both validating and motivating.
This is a local news link from MI. These half-wits were indeed dangerous but were clearly on the fringe and bound to fail. The "leader" of these flunkys was homeless and living in the basement of a vac shop via the benevolence of family friend.
https://www.freep.com/story/news/local/michigan/2020/10/10/w...
https://www.freep.com/story/news/local/michigan/2020/10/10/w...
As domestic terrorist plots go, this was actually one of the more competent ones. In many such cases, the FBI undercover agents took a rather active role in advancing the plot, because the suspects were so clueless. If the criminal complaint here is to be believed, despite the presence of multiple moles, it was primarily the suspects who developed the plot.
If anyone prefers this as a readable document:
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1314237833276612609.html
That’s the link most news sites are using.
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1314237833276612609.html
That’s the link most news sites are using.
Having recently watched Triumph of the Will[1] I have to admit I'm reassured by the impression that US reactionary extremists, at least the goofier part of them as revealed by indictments, just plain lack teutonic thoroughness.
Example: before the Nazis came to power, what would become the brownshirts had disguised themselves as a gymnastics and sport group (Turn- und Sportabteilung), not as a "we carry in tacticool" group.
[1] somewhere after 32:00, what I believe to be the sauce for "I'm doing my part!"
~48:16, Hitler stans Sparta, "we will die, but germany will live on in you".
Bonus satire: https://local.theonion.com/man-with-20-rifles-can-t-remember...
Compare https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=24389335 , which I wrote after reading about guys similar to these, neither of whom appear to have considered that any "Hamas" agent who desperately needed a couple of farmboys to machine silencers might just be sus.
Example: before the Nazis came to power, what would become the brownshirts had disguised themselves as a gymnastics and sport group (Turn- und Sportabteilung), not as a "we carry in tacticool" group.
[1] somewhere after 32:00, what I believe to be the sauce for "I'm doing my part!"
~48:16, Hitler stans Sparta, "we will die, but germany will live on in you".
Bonus satire: https://local.theonion.com/man-with-20-rifles-can-t-remember...
Compare https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=24389335 , which I wrote after reading about guys similar to these, neither of whom appear to have considered that any "Hamas" agent who desperately needed a couple of farmboys to machine silencers might just be sus.
Post WWI Germany was in a much worse state economically than the US currently is. Consequently, there were far more people who were capable of that kind of planning who also weren’t invested in the status quo.
It's not just economics there. Weimar was a garbage fire from top to bottom, and that made extremist groups that promised to fix the nation actually viable. People are much more willing to vote for loons if everything is broken and no one has really done much of substance about it. In their eyes they have nothing to lose. A common thought then was "Maybe these nazi/communist/anarchist guys can fix things. They seem well organised even if they are a bit wacky. How could they make things worse? We'll just vote them out if they don't deliver the goods like we did the last guys".
Little did they know of what was to come.
Little did they know of what was to come.
For reference, what a german ballot looked like by 1936: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1936_German_parliamentary_elec...
November 1933 was already similar: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/November_1933_German_parliamen...
and March 1933 was highly irregular: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/March_1933_German_federal_elec...
> "In a decree issued on 17 February 1933, Göring ordered the Prussian police force to make unrestrained use of firearms in operations against political opponents" and (as mentioned in previous posts) the police were not the only armed paramilitary group in play.
One additional item of context is that there were many people (including Ezra Pound and Oswald Spengler) going about saying that WWI+depression had proved that the edwardian vision of progress and social democracy was broken forever, and something new needed to be tried.
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=24696859
November 1933 was already similar: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/November_1933_German_parliamen...
and March 1933 was highly irregular: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/March_1933_German_federal_elec...
> "In a decree issued on 17 February 1933, Göring ordered the Prussian police force to make unrestrained use of firearms in operations against political opponents" and (as mentioned in previous posts) the police were not the only armed paramilitary group in play.
One additional item of context is that there were many people (including Ezra Pound and Oswald Spengler) going about saying that WWI+depression had proved that the edwardian vision of progress and social democracy was broken forever, and something new needed to be tried.
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=24696859
I agree with the sibling comment that post-WW1 was a different place, but I'll add that from the reading I've done Hitler and his cronies were so much worse at their stuff than the 'tactical genius evil' the Nazis are often presented as being.
So maybe it was just a matter of having enough of these 'dumb' types and and some of them learning over time? I could see that happening if the US keeps increasing the number of these types of people.
So maybe it was just a matter of having enough of these 'dumb' types and and some of them learning over time? I could see that happening if the US keeps increasing the number of these types of people.
This is the sort of planning a 12 year old would come up with while daydreaming. Except these guys are adults so they have an actual chance of trying to put it into action. It's part scary and part embarrassing.
Even though they raise some interesting points, there's also a lot of assumptions that don't seem to be backed up by the actual day-glo text
For example the analysis says that they're a bunch of idiots driving around shooting shit because they have no leadership or hierarchy. Then you read the citation, and it's about how one of the terrorists didn't shoot because he asked for permission and was denied
For example the analysis says that they're a bunch of idiots driving around shooting shit because they have no leadership or hierarchy. Then you read the citation, and it's about how one of the terrorists didn't shoot because he asked for permission and was denied
I must say, twitter is not the best way to write about things longer than, well, a tweet.
Dunning-Kruger gets thrown around a lot, but in this case it's spot on.
David Dunning - "If you're incompetent, you can't know you're incompetent ... The skills you need to produce a right answer are exactly the skills you need to recognize what a right answer is."
These are dogs chasing cars with the goal of driving the car, once they catch it.
Luckily most people aren't very motivated, self directed or willing to risk everything. Of course these guys don't really understand what they've put at risk.
What I want explained to me is why the right, and even the middle of the road right seems like they've lost their minds. They are willing to support and ignore the really crazy far right, like it's normal.
Is it just their racism finally bubbling to the surface after being artificially suppressed all these years? I don't just believe that they've been brainwashed by the right-wing media, I think there needs to be something else under the surface that makes the susceptible, and I think it's racism. Am I wrong?
David Dunning - "If you're incompetent, you can't know you're incompetent ... The skills you need to produce a right answer are exactly the skills you need to recognize what a right answer is."
These are dogs chasing cars with the goal of driving the car, once they catch it.
Luckily most people aren't very motivated, self directed or willing to risk everything. Of course these guys don't really understand what they've put at risk.
What I want explained to me is why the right, and even the middle of the road right seems like they've lost their minds. They are willing to support and ignore the really crazy far right, like it's normal.
Is it just their racism finally bubbling to the surface after being artificially suppressed all these years? I don't just believe that they've been brainwashed by the right-wing media, I think there needs to be something else under the surface that makes the susceptible, and I think it's racism. Am I wrong?
You're not wrong. Eight years of Obama was enough for the racist cancer in the heart of American culture to finally metastasize and start to consume the body politic.
It doesn't help that Donald Trump basically shares many of those extremists' beliefs, prejudices and conspiratorial mindset (he's the man who made birtherism a thing,) and so does nothing but fan the flames and grant them an air of legitimacy. But he's more of a symptom than a cause IMHO.
It doesn't help that Donald Trump basically shares many of those extremists' beliefs, prejudices and conspiratorial mindset (he's the man who made birtherism a thing,) and so does nothing but fan the flames and grant them an air of legitimacy. But he's more of a symptom than a cause IMHO.
[deleted]
These guys are useful fools for those how ignite them.