Why the Electoral College Will Be Banished(dvorak.substack.com)
dvorak.substack.com
Why the Electoral College Will Be Banished
https://dvorak.substack.com/p/why-the-electoral-college-will-be
89 comments
This article says nothing about how it will be banished and is more like a wish. You need 2/3 of states to change and ratify the constitution. Its not even close to being banished.
I think they are indirectly referring to the NPVIC.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Popular_Vote_Intersta...
So banished - no, circumvented - possibly.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Popular_Vote_Intersta...
So banished - no, circumvented - possibly.
Of course, the most populous states are the most in favor of NPVIC. I would expect that most of the states that are going to approve it have already done so; I expect that there will be very little further movement.
Its basically trying to game the system. The idea is that as swings occur in swing states they get locked into a popular vote if I had to guess. Probably what will happen is every time congress is controlled by republicans they will invalidate the pact which triggers a reset.
Why would any red state join this pact though?
There has been a lot of talk about working from home becoming the new norm and living within 1-2 time zones of your work. It's possible in that scenario for a lot of heavily-populated blue cities to disperse, even if it's only 10%-15% of their population, into what are now known as the 'Red States' and make them 'Blue.' I know I'm interested in doing that. I can move someplace where my quality of life is better and I can afford a better home. It's going to be interesting to see how the demographics change at the end of this pandemic.
From my link:
Some supporters and opponents of the NPVIC believe it gives one party an advantage relative to the current Electoral College system. Former Delaware Governor Pete du Pont, a Republican, has argued that the compact would be an "urban power grab" and benefit Democrats.[19] However, Saul Anuzis, former chairman of the Michigan Republican Party, wrote that Republicans "need" the compact, citing what he believes to be the center-right nature of the American electorate.[33]
A statistical analysis by FiveThirtyEight's Nate Silver of all presidential elections from 1864 to 2016 (see adjacent chart) found that the Electoral College has not consistently favored one major party or the other, and that any advantage in the Electoral College does not tend to last long, noting that "there's almost no correlation between which party has the Electoral College advantage in one election and which has it four years later."[32]
Some supporters and opponents of the NPVIC believe it gives one party an advantage relative to the current Electoral College system. Former Delaware Governor Pete du Pont, a Republican, has argued that the compact would be an "urban power grab" and benefit Democrats.[19] However, Saul Anuzis, former chairman of the Michigan Republican Party, wrote that Republicans "need" the compact, citing what he believes to be the center-right nature of the American electorate.[33]
A statistical analysis by FiveThirtyEight's Nate Silver of all presidential elections from 1864 to 2016 (see adjacent chart) found that the Electoral College has not consistently favored one major party or the other, and that any advantage in the Electoral College does not tend to last long, noting that "there's almost no correlation between which party has the Electoral College advantage in one election and which has it four years later."[32]
Got it. I think thats going to be a hard sell though especially as the population trajectory favors urban areas regardless of the past.
Will be interesting to see how that trajectory changes post-COVID with so many companies forced into remote. For me, my company moved full-time remote and because of that my home search has expanded outward
This is exactly what I was thinking. Though I suspect any changes are likely to happen on the state level. More likely is individual states switch to splitting their electoral votes based on actual vote counts.
Thats a bit fraught though since unless you have some kind of parity it would instantly screw up the current balance.
Thats a bit fraught though since unless you have some kind of parity it would instantly screw up the current balance.
[deleted]
2/3 of Congress (or 2/3 of the states) to propose an amendment and 3/4 of the states to ratify.
While I'd like to agree with him here, if John C Dvorak says it's true, you can bet against it nearly 100% successfully.
Look at some of these doozies... [1]
[1] https://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/John_C._Dvorak
Look at some of these doozies... [1]
[1] https://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/John_C._Dvorak
Sadly, you might be right. E.g. in another post he discusses the "mass hysteria" of covid...."psychogenic" illness, and this:
"The severity of the virus from country to country is a reflection of media coverage, not the other way around."
https://dvorak.substack.com/p/mass-hysteria-and-covid-19
"The severity of the virus from country to country is a reflection of media coverage, not the other way around."
https://dvorak.substack.com/p/mass-hysteria-and-covid-19
It's amazing how many "media personalities" are basically always wrong on the subject they "specialize" in, and yet they get invited back again and again.
I guess that's the whole Gell-Mann Amnesia thing.
I guess that's the whole Gell-Mann Amnesia thing.
Just the face of media disinformation being more apparent for industry practitioners.
Society as a whole has a major dearth of healthy skepticism - perhaps because a consumerist economy doesn't benefit from skeptics, and more from true believers.
Society as a whole has a major dearth of healthy skepticism - perhaps because a consumerist economy doesn't benefit from skeptics, and more from true believers.
I get where this comes from, but it’s very obviously wrong. It acts like media is the only group with money and influence. Many, many, many interests depend on the voting power that the Electoral College supplies to resource-rich states out west. I’d bet my left arm that the Electoral College will not disappear in my lifetime.
The beef about the electoral college is similar to the beef about the Senate filibuster -- terrible when it benefits the other guy.
Modern marketing for political campaigns will adapt either way. It's pretty easy for campaigns to target demographics, and I'm sure that a GOP candidate could pull the right strings to get a plurality vote. Hispanics, for example, are the weak link in the Democratic tent, as are asians who vote democratic but live in a fairly conservative way.
Modern marketing for political campaigns will adapt either way. It's pretty easy for campaigns to target demographics, and I'm sure that a GOP candidate could pull the right strings to get a plurality vote. Hispanics, for example, are the weak link in the Democratic tent, as are asians who vote democratic but live in a fairly conservative way.
> I'm sure that a GOP candidate could pull the right strings to get a plurality vote
There was a bunch of hubub on the Right in the fall about a Democrat win leading to Democrats tilting the tables in all sorts of ways that would lead to a "permanent Democrat majority".
I always came back to the same point as you, two-party politics will naturally self-balance at a pretty even split.
At a city / state level, you might be able to maintain one-party control through various levels of corruption / influence, but the nation itself is way too fickle to put up with that for long.
The weak link in the current majority will always tend to switch sides as soon as it appears that they might gain an advantage by doing so.
There was a bunch of hubub on the Right in the fall about a Democrat win leading to Democrats tilting the tables in all sorts of ways that would lead to a "permanent Democrat majority".
I always came back to the same point as you, two-party politics will naturally self-balance at a pretty even split.
At a city / state level, you might be able to maintain one-party control through various levels of corruption / influence, but the nation itself is way too fickle to put up with that for long.
The weak link in the current majority will always tend to switch sides as soon as it appears that they might gain an advantage by doing so.
It’s not all right people, it’s the more reactionary racist types, who inhabit the right wing media outlets.... end of the day, those folks don’t want certain people voting.
According to something in the papers recently, the idea gained some popularity about 1970, but it was the Southern Democrats who were down on the idea.
I am not holding my breath.
I am not holding my breath.
^this. Yes while it may be true that media will benefit from this, it almost virtually guarantees no more Republican presidents. Given that the House is also trending in that direction, the only real place where power still remains with the Republicans is the Senate. Too many mega corporations benefit from keeping the Dems out, (taxes, employee rights, minimum wage, etc.) and they will fight tooth and nail to maintain the status quo.
> it almost virtually guarantees no more Republican presidents.
No, it doesn’t, unless the Republican Party doesn’t adapt to changing conditions as it has continuously since it’s founding. It probably guarantees the Republican Party will realign slightly around some peripheral issues to shift it's geographic focus slightly while retaining it's core economic message, and continue on without breaking stride.
No, it doesn’t, unless the Republican Party doesn’t adapt to changing conditions as it has continuously since it’s founding. It probably guarantees the Republican Party will realign slightly around some peripheral issues to shift it's geographic focus slightly while retaining it's core economic message, and continue on without breaking stride.
This urban republicians and rual democrats are under represented in our current system. They have some what depressed turn out because of this. Changing to a popular vote empowers them on the national stage and will likely lead to increased turn out, shifting the Ballance.
There will always only be Democrats and Republicans, and because the system is a duopoly, when people get sick of one they will exercise their choice to revolve again to the other, round and round and round. Republicans are no more "finished" by Trump than Democrats were finished by Clinton.
Dislodging the duopoly (that is, opening the electoral system to 3rd parties) will require proportional representation full stop. Nothing else will do.
Dislodging the duopoly (that is, opening the electoral system to 3rd parties) will require proportional representation full stop. Nothing else will do.
> There will always only be Democrats and Republicans, and because the system is a duopoly,
Maybe, but people probably thought that about Democratic-Republicans and Federalists, or Democrats and Whigs. The subsequent realignments have so far been more gradual adaptations within the existing major parties, but a radical and suddenly realignment destroying (and replacing, either immediately or in short order) one of the majors is still possible.
> Dislodging the duopoly (that is, opening the electoral system to 3rd parties) will require proportional representation full stop.
Something like that, yes. (Not necessarily party-list PR, but electoral systems with greater proportionality than FPTP.)
Maybe, but people probably thought that about Democratic-Republicans and Federalists, or Democrats and Whigs. The subsequent realignments have so far been more gradual adaptations within the existing major parties, but a radical and suddenly realignment destroying (and replacing, either immediately or in short order) one of the majors is still possible.
> Dislodging the duopoly (that is, opening the electoral system to 3rd parties) will require proportional representation full stop.
Something like that, yes. (Not necessarily party-list PR, but electoral systems with greater proportionality than FPTP.)
I don't think we disagree. Fair point about "Democrats" and "Republicans" not always helming the Duopoly, but I do maintain that FPTP + winner take all will always and inevitably lead to only 2 dominant parties, whatever they're called.
If you disagree with that last point, I sincerely hope you're right, but one need only cite the weight of history and Duverger's law to support it.
If you disagree with that last point, I sincerely hope you're right, but one need only cite the weight of history and Duverger's law to support it.
Republicans gained 10 seats in the house and lost several in the Senate (and also lost the majority). Typically the house moves away from the President in the first election after they take office, so there is a fair chance that more seats will go Republican in 2022 also.
"the only real place where power still remains with the Republicans is the Senate"
And the Supreme Court, and many lower courts, which have been packed with Republicans.
Not to mention the military and the police, and probably the intelligence agencies too.
And the Supreme Court, and many lower courts, which have been packed with Republicans.
Not to mention the military and the police, and probably the intelligence agencies too.
Technically, they are judges at court and should rule according to the law not their political leanings.
I am aware that is not necessarily true, but it is also in the self-interest of the judges to be perceived as impartial, otherwise they loose their authority.
Police, military and intelligence agencies are government agencies, and are part of the executive. They should do their job irregardless of who is in power. A lot of high ranking people have worked through several administrations because they simply do their job, irregardless of their political leanings. Partisanship is harmful for those people, as it threatens their job security.
I am aware that is not necessarily true, but it is also in the self-interest of the judges to be perceived as impartial, otherwise they loose their authority.
Police, military and intelligence agencies are government agencies, and are part of the executive. They should do their job irregardless of who is in power. A lot of high ranking people have worked through several administrations because they simply do their job, irregardless of their political leanings. Partisanship is harmful for those people, as it threatens their job security.
"Technically, they are judges at court and should rule according to the law not their political leanings."
If that were true you wouldn't have liberals appointing liberal judges and conservatives appointing conservatives, and fighting tooth and nail over it.
Also, the Supreme Court effectively makes the law, not just follows it, and that's true to some extent of lower courts as well, as most cases never make it to the SC.
It's not a coincidence that now that we have a conservative Supreme Court it's widely expected that Roe v Wade is going to get overturned soon. The law didn't change, but who's on the SC did.
"They should do their job irregardless of who is in power."
They have a lot leeway as to how to do their job, and many of them will use their power to pursue vendettas against people they don't like, as we saw with Abu Ghraib, Gitmo, Bagram, black sites around the world, and all the torture and murder that the police engage in.
Prison guards and employees of ICE and Homeland Security are also probably mostly Republicans, and it's hard to argue that their politics and world view doesn't affect the way they do their job or why they are in those jobs in the first place.
If that were true you wouldn't have liberals appointing liberal judges and conservatives appointing conservatives, and fighting tooth and nail over it.
Also, the Supreme Court effectively makes the law, not just follows it, and that's true to some extent of lower courts as well, as most cases never make it to the SC.
It's not a coincidence that now that we have a conservative Supreme Court it's widely expected that Roe v Wade is going to get overturned soon. The law didn't change, but who's on the SC did.
"They should do their job irregardless of who is in power."
They have a lot leeway as to how to do their job, and many of them will use their power to pursue vendettas against people they don't like, as we saw with Abu Ghraib, Gitmo, Bagram, black sites around the world, and all the torture and murder that the police engage in.
Prison guards and employees of ICE and Homeland Security are also probably mostly Republicans, and it's hard to argue that their politics and world view doesn't affect the way they do their job or why they are in those jobs in the first place.
Why is the conversation always "abolish vs keep as is?" The EC seems like a good idea that brings equity to a diverse nation but needs some updating as things have changed dramatically since its creation. There are other possible changes that might help, like removing the winner take all situation. But just basing on popular vote alone creates the same problem we're in but from the other direction. We need cities but we also need the rural areas (like our farm lands) and we need to represent both. But rural areas will never have the population size/density of cities. We shouldn't let fly over states decide the elections just the same way we shouldn't let California and New York decide them. There's got to be a better solution here that provides good equity.
I don't think the concerns you're bringing up have anything to do with Electoral College, which doesn't care about cities or rural areas and doesn't favor small states in any case. It favors a handful of medium to large states that are seen as battleground states. The swing states that received disproportionate attention in the last election are on average quite a bit more urban than the United States as a whole.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-urban-or-rural-is-y...
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-urban-or-rural-is-y...
If most people live in the cities, I don't see an argument for letting rural areas have more than their proportional share of representation.
Because their labor matters too. But the thing is that their labor, which is extremely essential to the operation of the country (and the country would fail without their labor), requires more land than hands (especially as we've drastically introduced automation into their labor). We need food and natural resources, arguably more than we need investment bankers and programmers (not that we don't need these things, but one is essential to being able to breathe). The idea is to create a system that can fairly represent those laborers too.
That's not an argument for them having more than their population-proportional share of representation.
One person, one vote.
Not to mention that the US has a surplus of food, and the US government often pays farmers not to make food, so their value is really overestimated, if anything, especially considering all the subsidies they get at the expense of more populous states.
Most of the people that work in agriculture are probably undocumented immigrants with zero votes and zero representation, and those people who claim to care about the welfare of agricultural workers should have undocumented immigrant rights and representation at the forefront of their agenda. But somehow anti-immigrant, and thus anti-agricultural worker sentiment is rife among such people.
Many people are still under the illusion that small family farms are the ones that are being supported when they give agricultural subsidies. But those people are mostly gone. What are left in their place are huge corporations, and it's they who are benefiting most from the status quo.
One person, one vote.
Not to mention that the US has a surplus of food, and the US government often pays farmers not to make food, so their value is really overestimated, if anything, especially considering all the subsidies they get at the expense of more populous states.
Most of the people that work in agriculture are probably undocumented immigrants with zero votes and zero representation, and those people who claim to care about the welfare of agricultural workers should have undocumented immigrant rights and representation at the forefront of their agenda. But somehow anti-immigrant, and thus anti-agricultural worker sentiment is rife among such people.
Many people are still under the illusion that small family farms are the ones that are being supported when they give agricultural subsidies. But those people are mostly gone. What are left in their place are huge corporations, and it's they who are benefiting most from the status quo.
> If most people live in the cities, I don't see an argument for letting rural areas have more than their proportional share of representation.
It does act to prevent the rural areas from becoming totally neglected hinterlands, help them implement polices that may be necessary because of the different conditions of non-urban areas.
That said, I do think the current bargain tips the balance too much, so I'm now in favor of abolishing the Electoral College, and giving the House an advise-and-consent role (in addition to that of the Senate), at least for judges. These smaller states can keep their extra representation in the Senate.
It does act to prevent the rural areas from becoming totally neglected hinterlands, help them implement polices that may be necessary because of the different conditions of non-urban areas.
That said, I do think the current bargain tips the balance too much, so I'm now in favor of abolishing the Electoral College, and giving the House an advise-and-consent role (in addition to that of the Senate), at least for judges. These smaller states can keep their extra representation in the Senate.
While I understand your point, the counter argument to this is "Land doesn't vote, people do." Why does someone deserve to have greater representation because they live on a larger plot of land in a different part of the country? Why does someone in a big city deserve to have less representation?
That's because it isn't the land that is voting. You're trying to represent a diverse set of people and industries. We shouldn't screw over farmers because laws that work in cities are disastrous in rural areas and we shouldn't screw over cities because of laws that work well in rural areas. We need the farms, mining, energy (solar and wind as well as coal and natural gas), fishing, etc that comes with rural areas. They provide us with food and many of our essential resources. Similarly we need cities and the resources they bring us: tech, finance, logistics, etc. We need both for a highly functioning state. So it isn't so much land as voting but labor and utility.
And I want to be clear, I'm talking about equitable not equal. It seems weird to me that we don't talk about it this way when we do in so many other conventionally left topics (race, gender, culture, religion, etc). So why screw over the other side just because they disagree with us politically? I'm all for proportionate representation but at some point you have to strike a balance. You need both sides of the country to be operating as efficiently as possible and while now we favor the rural states swinging in the opposite direction isn't a balance, it is still a skew. Fairness doesn't always mean equality because the nature of reality isn't equal. Pretending that doesn't exist just creates inequality.
And I want to be clear, I'm talking about equitable not equal. It seems weird to me that we don't talk about it this way when we do in so many other conventionally left topics (race, gender, culture, religion, etc). So why screw over the other side just because they disagree with us politically? I'm all for proportionate representation but at some point you have to strike a balance. You need both sides of the country to be operating as efficiently as possible and while now we favor the rural states swinging in the opposite direction isn't a balance, it is still a skew. Fairness doesn't always mean equality because the nature of reality isn't equal. Pretending that doesn't exist just creates inequality.
We're trying to represent a diverse set of people and industries by dividing them into a false binary partitioned by largely arbitrary state lines, many of which were defined over 200 years ago, and leaving the vote for the presidency up to a tiny fraction of the population in a few of those arbitrary partitions. How is that equal or equitable? All states have some combination of rural, urban, and all the shades of gray in-between. Texas has Austin, Massachusetts is over half rural, NY is a Blue state that's mostly Red by area. Why should someone's vote have no weight because of where they live? I'm not saying that a popular vote would be perfect, I'm just saying that the Electoral College is absurd.
It's weird to divide the 300 million people that live in urban conditions and the 60 million people that live in rural conditions into 2 sides (that's using the statistical definition of urban that counts many small towns as urbanized areas, not the definition of urban that means super-dense megalopolis).
And then Kansas actually has cities in it. Why does a resident of Kansas City (Kansas) get more national voting power than a resident of Los Angeles?
And then Kansas actually has cities in it. Why does a resident of Kansas City (Kansas) get more national voting power than a resident of Los Angeles?
In my mind one of the biggest negative effects of the Electoral College is that it doesn't just provide more/less national voting power, but in many cases effectively strips voters of any power over the Presidential election.
Unless you live in a swing state, you generally know how the Presidential election will turn out in your state. So if you're in the minority in a non-swing state, you know going in that your vote will have no effect on the outcome, it's effectively just going to get discarded. If you're in the majority, your individual vote still doesn't have a lot of power, anything over the 51% is irreverent and effectively discarded.
With a popular vote, every single vote counts. No matter how big the majority or how small the minority in a state, every vote still has power. Nobody's vote is invalidated by where they happen to live.
Unless you live in a swing state, you generally know how the Presidential election will turn out in your state. So if you're in the minority in a non-swing state, you know going in that your vote will have no effect on the outcome, it's effectively just going to get discarded. If you're in the majority, your individual vote still doesn't have a lot of power, anything over the 51% is irreverent and effectively discarded.
With a popular vote, every single vote counts. No matter how big the majority or how small the minority in a state, every vote still has power. Nobody's vote is invalidated by where they happen to live.
This is why I've suggested a proportionate representation within the states (several states do this already). I do think the EC needs a lot of restructuring but I feel like most of the responses I'm getting are still reducing it to the dichotomy and applying positions to me that I don't hold. All I've stated is that the EC is broken so keeping it as is isn't a great solution and I don't think going to purely a popular vote is a good solution either. But there's a lot in between there and limiting ourselves to only those two solutions is a bit insane.
I did not intend to imply anything in regard to your positions, my intention was only to argue my interpretation of, and issues with, the current system and discuss why I think alternatives are better. Apologies if any of my posts came off as a personal attack.
I am in full agreement that proportionate representation (e.g. Maine and Nebraska) is a step in the right direction, but my personal feeling is that the presidential election should be the one place that every citizen's voice and vote should be equal. I can't imagine another situation where that should/could be the case and I think it's important to have that one place where every voice in the country can be equally involved and every vote equally weighted.
The short version of why I don't think any vote-per-district approach makes sense for the presidential election is that it will always reduce the election down to the "swing" districts that actually decide the outcome and get the most attention from the candidates. It can come down to very few votes, and a candidate pandering to the more extreme fractions can flip those sometimes-tiny margins.
I'm left-of-center in a very Blue state, but it bothers me that more conservative voices in my state have no impact on federal elections. They can't swing the state for the presidential election or congressional representatives, so they are provided little voice on the national stage. I think giving more influence to right-leaning voices from left-leaning areas, and visa-versa, could help bring the whole nation much more into balance and away from extremism.
You can try to minimize the issues I'm describing, but I think they're inherent to any vote-per-district approach such as the Electoral College. So I am seeing the two options as vote-per-district, and popular vote. Are there other solutions you're considering that I'm not seeing here?
I am in full agreement that proportionate representation (e.g. Maine and Nebraska) is a step in the right direction, but my personal feeling is that the presidential election should be the one place that every citizen's voice and vote should be equal. I can't imagine another situation where that should/could be the case and I think it's important to have that one place where every voice in the country can be equally involved and every vote equally weighted.
The short version of why I don't think any vote-per-district approach makes sense for the presidential election is that it will always reduce the election down to the "swing" districts that actually decide the outcome and get the most attention from the candidates. It can come down to very few votes, and a candidate pandering to the more extreme fractions can flip those sometimes-tiny margins.
I'm left-of-center in a very Blue state, but it bothers me that more conservative voices in my state have no impact on federal elections. They can't swing the state for the presidential election or congressional representatives, so they are provided little voice on the national stage. I think giving more influence to right-leaning voices from left-leaning areas, and visa-versa, could help bring the whole nation much more into balance and away from extremism.
You can try to minimize the issues I'm describing, but I think they're inherent to any vote-per-district approach such as the Electoral College. So I am seeing the two options as vote-per-district, and popular vote. Are there other solutions you're considering that I'm not seeing here?
[deleted]
This discussion was had when the original 13 colonies made a decision, for the second time, to unify under a single federal umbrella government.
After the complete failure of the Articles of Confederation, a second initiative was created to desperately try to get the 13 states to subjugate themselves to a collective government. They all wanted the benefits of this shared collective, but had various gripes about joining it.
The biggest gripe:
At the time of the drafting of the Constitution, Virginia alone had over 20% of the entire population of the US. New York and Pennsylvania were also populous, compared to states like Delaware, Connecticut, South Carolina, etc.
The original design of just having a purely population-based House of Representatives (and Presidency) was immediately rejected by all of the smaller states. Only the big states were ok with that. The smaller states were unwilling to join under an umbrella government that could be fully controlled by two or three populous states, at the expense of the interests of their own citizens. They immediately rejected the Constitution. This resulted in the creation of the Senate, and it's role as being the UPPER body of Congress, with more power than the House of Rep.
Without removing the pure popular vote, the union could have never been created in the first place, because it was immediately viewed as a way for populous states to subjugate less populous states. And those states and their citizens were unwilling to take that risk.
When you understand that this system was DEMANDED by smaller states before they were willing to join the union, you quickly realize why removal of such a system would likely result in some form of gradual disintegration of the union.
The system now makes it so liberals in Mass and rednecks in Wyoming occasionally get people that match their beliefs running the Federal government, with cycles of fury from the losing side every election. Abolishing the EC would have the near-term effect of having one of those groups, the one that dominates large, sparsely populated states that control most food production, become perennial losers, in a permanent and unending fury at a government that doesn't listen to or care about them. If you want to understand what this looks like, go talk to your average voter in upstate New York, whose state government and tax policies are dictated by NYC voters who are mostly renters. Do you think upstate New York has similar needs to NYC? I can guarantee they don't, and those needs are unaddressed. Ditto for voters in southern Illinois. The animosity is palpable, and that's for neighbors a hundred miles away.
Eventually, states will secede. And in a modern world like ours, I don't think it would be dramatic and violent. Likely just modern secession referendums.
The current conversation about abolishing the EC has always been a partisan power-game, just like giving DC statehood. If the conversation around DC statehood were actually about representation, rather than 2 new Senate seats that are guaranteed to represent city-dweller interests, the Congressional Act that allocated land from Maryland to be DC would simply be reversed, with the land ceded back to Maryland, and the addition of two new Congressional representatives to Maryland. This is exactly what was done in the 1800s with the unused portion of land Virginia allocated to form DC with Maryland. (the Virginia side of the Potomac was ignored by Fed gov, so the residents demanded to be rejoined with Virginia, and they were.)
After the complete failure of the Articles of Confederation, a second initiative was created to desperately try to get the 13 states to subjugate themselves to a collective government. They all wanted the benefits of this shared collective, but had various gripes about joining it.
The biggest gripe:
At the time of the drafting of the Constitution, Virginia alone had over 20% of the entire population of the US. New York and Pennsylvania were also populous, compared to states like Delaware, Connecticut, South Carolina, etc.
The original design of just having a purely population-based House of Representatives (and Presidency) was immediately rejected by all of the smaller states. Only the big states were ok with that. The smaller states were unwilling to join under an umbrella government that could be fully controlled by two or three populous states, at the expense of the interests of their own citizens. They immediately rejected the Constitution. This resulted in the creation of the Senate, and it's role as being the UPPER body of Congress, with more power than the House of Rep.
Without removing the pure popular vote, the union could have never been created in the first place, because it was immediately viewed as a way for populous states to subjugate less populous states. And those states and their citizens were unwilling to take that risk.
When you understand that this system was DEMANDED by smaller states before they were willing to join the union, you quickly realize why removal of such a system would likely result in some form of gradual disintegration of the union.
The system now makes it so liberals in Mass and rednecks in Wyoming occasionally get people that match their beliefs running the Federal government, with cycles of fury from the losing side every election. Abolishing the EC would have the near-term effect of having one of those groups, the one that dominates large, sparsely populated states that control most food production, become perennial losers, in a permanent and unending fury at a government that doesn't listen to or care about them. If you want to understand what this looks like, go talk to your average voter in upstate New York, whose state government and tax policies are dictated by NYC voters who are mostly renters. Do you think upstate New York has similar needs to NYC? I can guarantee they don't, and those needs are unaddressed. Ditto for voters in southern Illinois. The animosity is palpable, and that's for neighbors a hundred miles away.
Eventually, states will secede. And in a modern world like ours, I don't think it would be dramatic and violent. Likely just modern secession referendums.
The current conversation about abolishing the EC has always been a partisan power-game, just like giving DC statehood. If the conversation around DC statehood were actually about representation, rather than 2 new Senate seats that are guaranteed to represent city-dweller interests, the Congressional Act that allocated land from Maryland to be DC would simply be reversed, with the land ceded back to Maryland, and the addition of two new Congressional representatives to Maryland. This is exactly what was done in the 1800s with the unused portion of land Virginia allocated to form DC with Maryland. (the Virginia side of the Potomac was ignored by Fed gov, so the residents demanded to be rejoined with Virginia, and they were.)
This only holds if people still think they are a "Virginian" first and an "American" second. I've lived in several states, have close family in a dozen different states, and extended friends and family in almost every state. For me and many others, the state borders don't mean a whole lot, they're artificial lines drawn based on political maneuvering from 200 years ago.
You make a good point, but keep in mind that nothing will create a culture of distinctiveness from the Fed and group-cohesion within a state/region than imposition of rules that are popular nationally, but highly unpopular in said region.
As of now, the Federal government still treats cannabis like it's supremely harmful, with zero medical use, along with other DEA schedule 1 classified drugs. This is about to change, but since the 1990's, there have been locations in the US where a majority of the population reject this.
California was the first, and eventually in 2014 you had Colorado become the first state to wholesale legalize it, in spite of Federal law. Along with those movements, came a feeling of identity as a Californian first, an American second, that became particularly strong when the Feds raided businesses which complied with state, but not federal law. The people who really wanted legal weed increasingly viewed the Fed as an overreaching, far away tyrant. Imagine what it will be like in states that embrace low taxation if the Federal Govt is controlled for 3 consecutive decades by the party that represents city dwelling voters? Just like the reaction from Californians and Coloradans when the Feds raided citizens in their states for activities made legal at state level, it will help fuel anti-fed sentiment.
I think that's the risk we run today:
City residents are upset with what they correctly view as an intransigent, backwards system that gives too much power to small states and rural residents. They want to tilt this more in their favor, and correctly state the common sense "every vote should have equal weight" argument. The issue is that the construct that ties these states together always assumed that each state would have some form of pure democracy, and that the coalition of states would funnel each state's democratic desires into the Federal construct that was, by design, not democratic.
My view is that the majority of citizens, most of whom don't even care to know about US history at a remotely detailed level, and don't understand that the system they want will gradually erode the benefits of staying in for many states, and simultaneously raise the costs. Resentment grows, and next thing you know you have a secession movement.
As of now, the Federal government still treats cannabis like it's supremely harmful, with zero medical use, along with other DEA schedule 1 classified drugs. This is about to change, but since the 1990's, there have been locations in the US where a majority of the population reject this.
California was the first, and eventually in 2014 you had Colorado become the first state to wholesale legalize it, in spite of Federal law. Along with those movements, came a feeling of identity as a Californian first, an American second, that became particularly strong when the Feds raided businesses which complied with state, but not federal law. The people who really wanted legal weed increasingly viewed the Fed as an overreaching, far away tyrant. Imagine what it will be like in states that embrace low taxation if the Federal Govt is controlled for 3 consecutive decades by the party that represents city dwelling voters? Just like the reaction from Californians and Coloradans when the Feds raided citizens in their states for activities made legal at state level, it will help fuel anti-fed sentiment.
I think that's the risk we run today:
City residents are upset with what they correctly view as an intransigent, backwards system that gives too much power to small states and rural residents. They want to tilt this more in their favor, and correctly state the common sense "every vote should have equal weight" argument. The issue is that the construct that ties these states together always assumed that each state would have some form of pure democracy, and that the coalition of states would funnel each state's democratic desires into the Federal construct that was, by design, not democratic.
My view is that the majority of citizens, most of whom don't even care to know about US history at a remotely detailed level, and don't understand that the system they want will gradually erode the benefits of staying in for many states, and simultaneously raise the costs. Resentment grows, and next thing you know you have a secession movement.
It’s true that many citizens feel little loyalty to their state. I think that’s because the feds are so far beyond their remit that states are left with few options for policy differences that would attract like-minded citizens. We now have different people enacting largely the same federal policies.
That, and it's just easier to travel now.
It seems like geographical proximity influences votes. I am not sure why cities tend to lean so heavily dem, but they do. So if it were just raw vote count the cities would control the whole country. Not sure that is preferable. Then it starts to look like a serfdom, where cities gain wealth through taxing the poor rural areas.
I'm not disagreeing that right now there is strong ideological divide between a majority of people in rural and urban populations, that's patently obvious. But what is the justification for providing someone with a larger representation per-individual based on what are largely arbitrary boundaries? Why should votes from Massachusetts for a Republican president and votes from Arkansas for a Democratic president be rendered meaningless?
It is not the land voting, but political municipalities which are tied by common culture and people. I think it makes sense to try and give smaller municipalities equal footing with larger municipalities. E.g. in the global scheme we think it is a bad thing when super powers stomp all over the little guy. Same thinking applies internally. Each state is sort of like a mini country.
In general our country seems to try and prevent a tyranny of the majority, which is one of the historical flaws of pure democracy. E.g. see kulaks in USSR, jews in Nazi germany, other minority groups in the US etc.
In general our country seems to try and prevent a tyranny of the majority, which is one of the historical flaws of pure democracy. E.g. see kulaks in USSR, jews in Nazi germany, other minority groups in the US etc.
Part of my point is that states, and often congressional districts, do not really represent a "common culture and people" in a lot of cases. NY for example is a Blue state, but is Red by area. Those same boundaries can also introduce arbitrary borders that divide people with a common culture and life experience. The problem with the Electoral College is that it's just become a set of meaningless rules and lines that the political parties game to their advantage. I'd be less opposed if it weren't winner take all by state, and even less opposed if the electoral college districts ignored state lines and actually represented real cultural and environmental boundaries (instead of gerrymandered puzzle pieces) while trying to strike a reasonable balance between population and area. Given the virtual impossibility of that, I think that a popular vote is more reasonable then the Electoral College.
Let's take your NY example. What do you think is the fairest way to represent the people in the state? The current setup, or something else?
Because in this country there are dichotomies. There's my chotomy and the wrong chotomy.
In times of stress people tend more to seek simple answers. I can only assume forcing false dichotomies on everything is a sign that people don't feel secure.
In times of stress people tend more to seek simple answers. I can only assume forcing false dichotomies on everything is a sign that people don't feel secure.
Interestingly I'm noting most of the replies to my comment are assuming I want to keep the EC as is. Which I'm not sure how to even respond to comments like that since my opening line states the opposite. That just I don't like the conventional alternative. But I guess this is the problem that we're talking about (and seems to becoming increasingly more common), that we're removing the nuance from problems and trying to apply overly simplified solutions. All that results is in continued problems and continued infighting. I'm not sure how to break the cycle when people on HN are forcing a position on me that I explicitly stated I did not hold.
I had the thought back in the fall that a reasonable compromise could be:
Every house district gets an electoral vote, and then each state's popular vote counts for the two votes provided by the senate seats.
Every house district gets an electoral vote, and then each state's popular vote counts for the two votes provided by the senate seats.
I think you're describing exactly what Maine and Nebraska already do: https://www.fairvote.org/maine_nebraska
The issue is not with the Electoral College, but with the artificial limit on the House of Representatives. The limit of 435 Reps skews the numbers.
House of Representatives is suppose to be 1 Rep per a fixed number of people. But Congress put a hard limit of 435, that means Small States have more people per Rep than Large States.
For example, Wyoming has 1 Rep for 480900 people.
California has 1 rep per 736000 people. To be fair and agree with the original intent of the US Constitution, California should have about 82 Reps instead of 53.
Texas for that matter should really have 52 Reps instead of 36 as it as now. The way it is now it has one rep per 700279 people.
Fixing that limit should solve a lot of problems
House of Representatives is suppose to be 1 Rep per a fixed number of people. But Congress put a hard limit of 435, that means Small States have more people per Rep than Large States.
For example, Wyoming has 1 Rep for 480900 people.
California has 1 rep per 736000 people. To be fair and agree with the original intent of the US Constitution, California should have about 82 Reps instead of 53.
Texas for that matter should really have 52 Reps instead of 36 as it as now. The way it is now it has one rep per 700279 people.
Fixing that limit should solve a lot of problems
Here's what I don't understand - this is is constantly framed as a matter of reforming Federal law, when the states could remedy this themselves by changing from a winner-gets-all paradigm to a Maine- or Nebraska-like system that allocates delegates proportionally.
The proximate reason why they don't do this, I would imagine, is that in the short term a party-controlled state wouldn't want a bunch of its Presidential vote delegates to go to the other party; e.g., California Democrats, who currently have the political power to change how their state awards delegates, don't want dozens of delegates going to the GOP and vice versa for Texas Republicans not wanting a bunch of Texas delegates going to the Democrats.
On the other hand, states like Ohio and Florida want to keep the influence they have as swing states -- they want presidential candidates to spend an insanely disproportionate amount of time campaigning there and making promises about future policy decisions that disproportionately affect local industries. If they awarded delegates proportionally, they'd lose the attention they enjoy every four years.
I'm not sure what the way to break the equilibrium would be, but do think that the solution to this is action on the state level rather than Federal. Am I missing anything?
The proximate reason why they don't do this, I would imagine, is that in the short term a party-controlled state wouldn't want a bunch of its Presidential vote delegates to go to the other party; e.g., California Democrats, who currently have the political power to change how their state awards delegates, don't want dozens of delegates going to the GOP and vice versa for Texas Republicans not wanting a bunch of Texas delegates going to the Democrats.
On the other hand, states like Ohio and Florida want to keep the influence they have as swing states -- they want presidential candidates to spend an insanely disproportionate amount of time campaigning there and making promises about future policy decisions that disproportionately affect local industries. If they awarded delegates proportionally, they'd lose the attention they enjoy every four years.
I'm not sure what the way to break the equilibrium would be, but do think that the solution to this is action on the state level rather than Federal. Am I missing anything?
Nationalpopularvote.com is the (exhaustive) website for the interstate compact, which has an actual chance of enactment by 2024..
No, zero chance. There is no way you will get states to agree to forever nullify their electoral influence. If you really want perpetual one-party rule, granting DC and PR statehood are also unlikely but far more realistic than abolishing the electoral college, which will literally only happen when the US itself is dissolved.
You need only the states which hold a majority of the electoral votes.
The only states with electoral influence are swing-states. Every "blue" and "red" state has practical zero "electoral" influence, meaning their topics will never be as important as the swing state ones.
Exactly.. it can eventually pass because there are (way) more states that gain from an NPV than lose from it.
Any state can become a swing state, it just needs to vote less decively in favour of one party. Do that, and it'll suddenly start mattering more on the national scale.
Now if only they could do away with gerrymandering
Given that republicans have lost the popular vote in every election since 2000 I don't see them getting on board with going to a straight popular vote anytime in the near future to determine the Presidential election.
> Given that republicans have lost the popular vote in every election since 2000
They also just don't devote resources in heavily blue states for the Presidential race.
Why work to gain votes in a race you will lose anyway? Particularly given that you can win without putting in that effort.
Campaigns are optimized for the rules as they exist. Changing the rules changes the game. Just because the proposed rules look favorable to one side doesn't mean that they would remain that way if the changes took place.
They also just don't devote resources in heavily blue states for the Presidential race.
Why work to gain votes in a race you will lose anyway? Particularly given that you can win without putting in that effort.
Campaigns are optimized for the rules as they exist. Changing the rules changes the game. Just because the proposed rules look favorable to one side doesn't mean that they would remain that way if the changes took place.
Exactly.
"But I had more pieces left! Just because I was checkmated doesn't mean I should have lost."
Strategy is informed by the victory conditions.
"But I had more pieces left! Just because I was checkmated doesn't mean I should have lost."
Strategy is informed by the victory conditions.
George Bush (Republican) won the popular vote in 2004.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2004_United_States_presidentia...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2004_United_States_presidentia...
Ahh - touche - one time out of 6 - not looking like good odds for Republicans to be in favor of going the popular vote route.
> This dichotomy between the two types of states along with constant usage of the terms "divisive" and "divisiveness" by the media (and now the politicians themselves) promotes the notion that we are splitting apart along political lines in ways that we've never witnessed before. This is hardly true as any history professor will attest.
Citation needed
Citation needed
Well, there was that whole Civil War thing. We are less divided than that, at a minimum.
I think a better intermediate step would be to get rid of winner take all electoral college votes. Do it by county. This would move closer to a democracy but still retain the form of a republic.
It won't happen until foreign actors deliberately exploit the electoral college by taking actions that harm the GOP specifically in swing states. As long as the electoral college gives an edge to the GOP, none of the reliably red states will want to abolish it, and together with the swing states benefiting directly from the electoral college, there aren't enough votes to get rid of it.
If the president is elected by popular vote, then significant amounts of voting fraud in any one state becomes a national issue. So does significant amounts of voter suppression. Opening that can of worms to be fought on a national scale... well, be careful what you wish for.
> If the president is elected by popular vote, then significant amounts of voting fraud in any one state becomes a national issue. So does significant amounts of voter suppression.
If the President is elected by the Electoral College and the parties aligned to near electoral parity, then it often doesn't even take significant fraud or suppression to swing the national election, as long as you target easily-identifiable swing states.
If the President is elected by the Electoral College and the parties aligned to near electoral parity, then it often doesn't even take significant fraud or suppression to swing the national election, as long as you target easily-identifiable swing states.
Zero chance, if only because the resulting chaos would put the assets of the wealthy at risk.
NPVIC is state level-electoral meddling exactly on a par with what 45 tried in Michigan and Georgia, and aiming for the same outcome. The democrats pushing for it are not trying to correct some abstract statistical imbalance or make it easier for third party candidates to get seats: they are trying to swing elections in those states democratic, pure and simple.
Any change to any voting system is likely going to benefit one party more than others, and said party will always be motivated for that reason. This is a given. This should not then imply that we never change how voting works. When republicans want to do the right thing for bad reasons, and when democrats want to do the right thing for bad reasons, roll with it.
How is it state level meddling? It is up to the states to legislate how to appoint their electors:
https://constitution.congress.gov/browse/essay/artII-S1-C2-1...
Trump was not trying to change the respective laws in the states, but to get someone to change the outcome where they were not in his favour. _After the fact_.
The NPVIC is designed that any change can only come in effect well before an election.
Trump was not trying to change the respective laws in the states, but to get someone to change the outcome where they were not in his favour. _After the fact_.
The NPVIC is designed that any change can only come in effect well before an election.
I think that people aren't addressing the root cause. The existence of a two-party system is intended to keep parties in power. Yes, there are other parties, such as Constitution or Libertatian, but until things change they are inconsequential.
People should elect candidates, not parties. If we do not stop electing parties, we will continue to elect gatekeepers and politicians who spend all their time creating and then pretending they can't solve wedge issues, while spending money frivolously to bribe people and pay-off the corporations who later hire them.
These politicians, who all seem to hate each other, are friends with each other, and they play citizens for fools. Why don't we all take a step back and stop playing _their_ game? The problem isn't the electoral college, it's the people who we let matriculate and the party system.
People should elect candidates, not parties. If we do not stop electing parties, we will continue to elect gatekeepers and politicians who spend all their time creating and then pretending they can't solve wedge issues, while spending money frivolously to bribe people and pay-off the corporations who later hire them.
These politicians, who all seem to hate each other, are friends with each other, and they play citizens for fools. Why don't we all take a step back and stop playing _their_ game? The problem isn't the electoral college, it's the people who we let matriculate and the party system.
The elephant in the room is voter fraud. If we switch to raw vote count then it takes just one loosely regulated precinct to flood the election with fraudulent votes to win the election, and anyone can do this. Sure, this time around one group may win the fraud vote, but next time it will be another group, and the the best fraudsters will conspire to run the country and we will cease to be a democracy and become a kleptocracy. At least with the electoral college the fraud has to be much better organized and spread more across the country.
Carrying out voter fraud is pointless unless you can do it without being detected. If you flood one precinct with enough votes to swing an entire election it becomes very obvious that something fishy went on there.
The only way to rig the election with voter fraud and get away with it is exactly the same - by spreading your fraudulent votes thinly so that no one area is too suspicious.
The only way to rig the election with voter fraud and get away with it is exactly the same - by spreading your fraudulent votes thinly so that no one area is too suspicious.
Even so, eliminating the college makes it easier. We need defense in depth to maintain rule of the people.
It seems like it’d be a lot harder to swing a National popular vote election fraudulently, where you’d need to register millions of fraudulent votes, than an electoral college vote where at times you’d only need a few thousand? Or even just a couple high-pressure phone calls...
That's a good point. There would be fewer votes required. My thinking is when spread across more distinct political regions a greater amount of collusion is required across a more diverse political body, even if the raw vote count is smaller. In my mind this seems harder to pull off, but I can see where you are coming from.