Nintendo Projects First Ever Annual Loss, Misses Half-Year Forecasts(gamasutra.com)
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Nintendo Projects First Ever Annual Loss, Misses Half-Year Forecasts
http://www.gamasutra.com/view/news/38055/Nintendo_Projects_First_Ever_Annual_Loss_Misses_HalfYear_Forecasts.php
26 comments
I'm actually pretty underwhelmed by the 3D on the 3DS. I was really looking forward to it but it doesn't seem to add anything to the games.
Market saturation is another one. Nintendo is traditionally strong in it's home market, but I was watching a TV program in Japan prior to the 3DS launch saying that one in four Japanese owns a DS. Hard to imagine they can sell more hardware units.
Market saturation is another one. Nintendo is traditionally strong in it's home market, but I was watching a TV program in Japan prior to the 3DS launch saying that one in four Japanese owns a DS. Hard to imagine they can sell more hardware units.
The genres that ought to really benefit are mostly not out yet. Which is one of the general problems the device has.
I'm going to end up getting one because my DS Lite is biting the dust after 5 years of service, and they've structured the prices so that I have no real reason not to just go for it. (I have a significant enough DS backlog that it isn't economical for me to just abandon it, either.) For me, the touchstone game will actually be Super Mario 3D Land in mid-November. Does 3D solve some of the problems that have plagued 3D platformers since day one, like the extreme difficulty in judging depth that we've just sort of hacked around but is still a problem, or not? If it doesn't add anything to that genre, stick a fork in it, 3D is done, or at least portable 3D. But I'd like to see it before I make that call.
Even Ocarina of Time isn't a good judge, because that was built for 3D-on-2D screens like everything else. SM3DL will have been built for 3D from the beginning. If that doesn't cut it, nothing will.
It's still possible for the 3DS to follow the DS trajectory of recovering from an initial release slump, but only if there's some sort of real benefit to the 3D beyond the first two minutes.
I'm going to end up getting one because my DS Lite is biting the dust after 5 years of service, and they've structured the prices so that I have no real reason not to just go for it. (I have a significant enough DS backlog that it isn't economical for me to just abandon it, either.) For me, the touchstone game will actually be Super Mario 3D Land in mid-November. Does 3D solve some of the problems that have plagued 3D platformers since day one, like the extreme difficulty in judging depth that we've just sort of hacked around but is still a problem, or not? If it doesn't add anything to that genre, stick a fork in it, 3D is done, or at least portable 3D. But I'd like to see it before I make that call.
Even Ocarina of Time isn't a good judge, because that was built for 3D-on-2D screens like everything else. SM3DL will have been built for 3D from the beginning. If that doesn't cut it, nothing will.
It's still possible for the 3DS to follow the DS trajectory of recovering from an initial release slump, but only if there's some sort of real benefit to the 3D beyond the first two minutes.
Nintendo has said that none of the games for the system are allowed to require 3D to play, so I don't know if you should expect anything too groundbreaking there.
I think the 3DS's biggest problem is the overwhelming success of the original DS. Damn near everyone owns one, so people are still making titles for it. Aside from the 3D feature, this leaves little incentive to upgrade, unless your original DS is on its last leg and you still want to play those games. Otherwise, you've still got a working system, a stockpile of games and you still have access to newly released titles. Until there are some worthy 3DS exclusive titles, sales will continue to be pretty slow.
I think the 3DS's biggest problem is the overwhelming success of the original DS. Damn near everyone owns one, so people are still making titles for it. Aside from the 3D feature, this leaves little incentive to upgrade, unless your original DS is on its last leg and you still want to play those games. Otherwise, you've still got a working system, a stockpile of games and you still have access to newly released titles. Until there are some worthy 3DS exclusive titles, sales will continue to be pretty slow.
I'd say I'm satisfied with the 3D. But there've been a few times that I've been playing for 20 minutes and only then noticed that the 3D switch was set to "off" the whole time and then thought "oh yeah". That kind of puts it into perspective for me [err, no pun intended].
That and it's awfully tough to spend $35 on games that I end up playing way less than $1.99 games. Still happy to pay $35 for a Mario or a Zelda, but that's about it.
That and it's awfully tough to spend $35 on games that I end up playing way less than $1.99 games. Still happy to pay $35 for a Mario or a Zelda, but that's about it.
I really curious to see what Nintendo do in the face of devices like the iPod Touch. Portable gaming has always been more casual than "static" gaming, and the iPod Touch is absolutely dominating casual gaming. I sold my DS a long time ago because I simply couldn't be bothered to carry it around any more- I don't think I'm alone on that, and I'm not sure how Nintendo can solve that problem.
I won't be surprised if we see them take an approach similar to Sony- partner with a phone manufacturer to make a top tier casual gaming device that is also a phone, connected to an app store.
I won't be surprised if we see them take an approach similar to Sony- partner with a phone manufacturer to make a top tier casual gaming device that is also a phone, connected to an app store.
They can't, it goes against the company core philosophy.
Anybody can program for the iPod, and anybody can program for the DS(with the homebrew libs), but you can't officially do so for the DS without paying huge amounts of money and "proving" that you are a professional(You can't program in your house), and giving a big share of the profits to Nintendo.
So developers just go away and the only games you have are those made by Nintendo itself: Zelda, Mario and the like...the same games over and over again.
Anybody can program for the iPod, and anybody can program for the DS(with the homebrew libs), but you can't officially do so for the DS without paying huge amounts of money and "proving" that you are a professional(You can't program in your house), and giving a big share of the profits to Nintendo.
So developers just go away and the only games you have are those made by Nintendo itself: Zelda, Mario and the like...the same games over and over again.
They've had years to do something about the iPod Touch. If they didn't face it then, they're never going to face it.
iOS is a gold mine for 3rd party. Someone needs to look at how well Scribblenauts http://itunes.apple.com/us/app/scribblenauts-remix/id4448447... is doing on iOS vs. DS as an example. This affects the casual market for DS. Why spend $250 (can't believe they launched at that heinous console-level price) to play casual games?
Beyond that though, is terrible timing and business decisions on Nintendo's part. Remember the DS Phat? The 3DS actually sold really well initially relative to the DS phat. What did well before were titles like Mario Kart, Tetris, and Jump Superstars in Japan timed during peak season with the release of the aesthetically pleasing DS Lite + the convenience of the r4. Then Nintendo went ahead and released 2 new versions to annoy customers. Now they release a 3DS and expect early adopters? Their main titles come now during the holidays and we'll see how well the system sells before making a firm opinion.
Additionally they're shelling tons of cash on Wii U whose innovation is nowhere near as revolutionary as the Wii. I demo-ed it @ E3 and there's simply nothing but a tech demo to showcase anything worthy of hype.
So, I think they've realized their mistakes. And it's not surprising at all that they've projected an annual loss. Also, 1st party games ported out? Never, I don't know why people keep bringing that idea up.
Beyond that though, is terrible timing and business decisions on Nintendo's part. Remember the DS Phat? The 3DS actually sold really well initially relative to the DS phat. What did well before were titles like Mario Kart, Tetris, and Jump Superstars in Japan timed during peak season with the release of the aesthetically pleasing DS Lite + the convenience of the r4. Then Nintendo went ahead and released 2 new versions to annoy customers. Now they release a 3DS and expect early adopters? Their main titles come now during the holidays and we'll see how well the system sells before making a firm opinion.
Additionally they're shelling tons of cash on Wii U whose innovation is nowhere near as revolutionary as the Wii. I demo-ed it @ E3 and there's simply nothing but a tech demo to showcase anything worthy of hype.
So, I think they've realized their mistakes. And it's not surprising at all that they've projected an annual loss. Also, 1st party games ported out? Never, I don't know why people keep bringing that idea up.
Nintendo has always done that with their handheld game systems though, at least the successful ones. They iterate the thing to death and then come out with something new. The 3DS's problem is that it looks like simply another iteration of the original DS, not something new. Whether or not that's really true, that's definitely how it looks. Games don't look significantly better, they are lacking any "must have" 3DS titles (the holidays might change this, time will tell) and the 3D feature doesn't really add that much to the games (in my case, I get a headache after a few minutes with 3D enabled).
Graphically speaking it's actualy a pretty huge jump from the DS. But yes, you're right, there's nothing added. Most people play it with 3D turned off. Augmented reality isn't used at all. And yep, we'll have to wait until their core titles come out to really see what's up.
For me though, I told myself "I'm playing Zelda 3D. That's what's happening next". But, I still haven't bought the damn system and game yet. It just doesn't feel right to early adopt it.
For me though, I told myself "I'm playing Zelda 3D. That's what's happening next". But, I still haven't bought the damn system and game yet. It just doesn't feel right to early adopt it.
Nintendo's days as an independent company may be numbered. With no clear path forward on either the handheld or the console side, their greatest strength is their content. Possible suitors? Their neighbor Microsoft might benefit. Or Apple, which is rumored to be entering the console space. Sony seems to have its hands full right now. How about Disney, they'd love to add Mario and company to their IP. Out of left field, maybe Samsung would jump in.
I think Apple+Nintendo would probably be the best fit in terms of corporate culture, much more than Sony, and Disney is a maybe, but that's really an industry they don't have much internal knowledge of.
That said, Apple+Nintendo may never happen due to nationalism. I can't imagine a Japanese national treasure like Nintendo being sold to a uniquely American company like Apple. I'm not saying it's impossible. It would just be a very big deal if it did happen.
That said, Apple+Nintendo may never happen due to nationalism. I can't imagine a Japanese national treasure like Nintendo being sold to a uniquely American company like Apple. I'm not saying it's impossible. It would just be a very big deal if it did happen.
If we're talking Japanese cultural ego, America > Korea >> China.
I wouldn't count them out yet. People were saying this 10 years ago during the Gamecube era, only to have Nintendo come back and dominate with the DS and the Wii. There might still come a day when Nintendo gets bought out by a larger company, or more likely goes the way of Sega and develops games only instead of hardware.
They do need to address the current climate of free to play and cheap casual games, not just on iOS devices but across the board.
They do need to address the current climate of free to play and cheap casual games, not just on iOS devices but across the board.
The Wii was a fluke that, unfortunately, Nintendo wasn't able to capitalize on. Everything that's wrong with the Wii is exactly what was wrong the Gamecube a generation before.
Nintendo wants to desperately hold onto the idea that they can continue to sell plastic for $50 a pop. They think that iPhone games for $1.99 will destroy the industry, and they might be right, but they also can't stop it.
Nintendo is also locked into the idea that they continue to sell hardware based on gimmicks. Given the success of the DS and Wii, you can hardly blame them. But I think the DS succeeded not because of the "dual screens" but because it hit the right price point with the right capabilities and a touch screen allowed for casual gaming. The Wii sold hugely but is also mostly collecting dust around the world and I don't think they can build more business on that.
Nintendo wants to desperately hold onto the idea that they can continue to sell plastic for $50 a pop. They think that iPhone games for $1.99 will destroy the industry, and they might be right, but they also can't stop it.
Nintendo is also locked into the idea that they continue to sell hardware based on gimmicks. Given the success of the DS and Wii, you can hardly blame them. But I think the DS succeeded not because of the "dual screens" but because it hit the right price point with the right capabilities and a touch screen allowed for casual gaming. The Wii sold hugely but is also mostly collecting dust around the world and I don't think they can build more business on that.
It's not going to get any easier for them: iPhone 4S and iPad2 apps that play with Apple TV look to encroach on living room consoles. http://www.engadget.com/2011/10/07/real-racing-2-shows-off-i... Fortunately for them, the iPod Touch can't do the mirroring so they have a year to defend the living room.
Project forward a generation or two, though, with improved and widespread Apple TV and better graphics, and it's hard to see how the Xbox and Playstation won't be affected - the Infinity Blade 2 demo might not be state of the art, but it be enough for functionally similar ports of console games. I think we're at most 3 years away from having iOS be the lead platform for Madden and/or FIFA.
Project forward a generation or two, though, with improved and widespread Apple TV and better graphics, and it's hard to see how the Xbox and Playstation won't be affected - the Infinity Blade 2 demo might not be state of the art, but it be enough for functionally similar ports of console games. I think we're at most 3 years away from having iOS be the lead platform for Madden and/or FIFA.
Only if Apple (and not some random third party) releases a wireless gamepad as an accessory for iOS devices. Then it could really take of.
Did you watch the video? If the game video is beamed to the TV, the iPad and even iPhone can be very competent controllers. Once you can use the gyroscope/accelerometer freely and use the entire screen for gestures (without worrying you're obscuring the gameplay), they can make fantastic gamepads. Plus, since every kid is using their own device, everyone has instant access to their preferences.
Nobody wants to carry around another gaming device in addition to phones that are completely capable of doing the same things. 3DS' 3D abilities seem more gimmicky than useful. Putting classic titles on the App Store and Android Marketplace (that are no longer being sold or generating revenue) seems like a no brainer to me.
2 words: iPod Touch
- Extremely strong yen.
- 3DS is an expensive platform in the youth space at a time of economic uncertainty. (They've since price dropped to ~$169)
- 3DS appears to be a mere Nintendo DS 0.5 update until you actually experience the 3D in person.
- Weak 3DS games.
- Nintendo got over protective parents concerned by stating themselves that young kids (Nintendo's core market) shouldn't play the device.
- The Wii is dead.
The iOS platform is popular but we have to consider how many of the folks engaging in iOS gaming were likely to buy a 3DS in the first place. I'm not convinced yet that we're seeing a mass switch over. I think Nintendo does have to treat this competition very seriously, but I think some of the other points I listed above have had a larger negative impact on the 3DS and Nintendo's recent performance than the rise of iOS gaming.