Ask HN: How is the current crypto/tech climate any different from .com bubble?
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4 comments
The principal question, is whether or not there are any Google or Amazon equivalents. Nearly all of the late 90's internet startups went bust, in many cases after spending a lot of startup money and accomplishing little. However, there were a few that had viable business models. The question of whether or not any of the cryptocurrency companies today actually have a viable business model, is still open. One could perhaps imagine Block (formerly Square) finding a way to survive, and making crypto some part of that.
So, if a couple of crypto companies manage to survive: there is no difference. If not, the difference is that it was an "emptier" bubble than the .com one.
So, if a couple of crypto companies manage to survive: there is no difference. If not, the difference is that it was an "emptier" bubble than the .com one.
More ponzi schemes and outright fraud and theft. And retail investors (normal people) ripped off for their life savings. The .com bubbles mainly hit professional investors. People lose their jobs when a company goes bust, and the stock market might plunge for a while. But the .com bubble companies mostly at least intended to build something, whereas crypto is just a non-stop train wreck of insider trading and fraud.
It is no different. There will always be mania, bubbles and hype in the speculation round and it always ends in a crash with a few survivors.
From the crash of 2000, 90% of the dotcom-era companies had collapsed, with the surviving 10% still here today; some that are trillion dollar companies. The same is true for the tech startups today founded in 2010 which the same rule applies there and also in crypto, given it has still survived the crashes of 2013, 2018 and now 2022.
What will likely happen to crypto will be the same with the internet and tech startups and it is on regulations which many companies have been waiting for before re-entering again into using a select few cryptocurrencies and their technologies that fit their use-case and after regulatory clarity.
But you will frequently hear from the extreme anti-crypto folks who have for years have been praying for the 'total collapse of all cryptocurrencies' and a 'total ban on everyone using them'. I'm sure there were similar calls for the internet to be shutdown by many other skeptics as well, and there was a push back against 'Web 2.0'. But the more realistic outcome is the coexistence of a select few compliant cryptocurrencies and other crypto companies or projects that work with the current system with clear regulations. Crypto maximalists are just as unrealistic as the extreme anti-crypto folks in their goals of what will happen.
So like the internet and the tech bubble of 2010 - 2022, all had regulations and crypto will be the same. Hence the point that 90% of these crypto companies won't survive, but the remaining 10% will. Just exactly like the dotcom and 2010 tech startups you see existing today.
From the crash of 2000, 90% of the dotcom-era companies had collapsed, with the surviving 10% still here today; some that are trillion dollar companies. The same is true for the tech startups today founded in 2010 which the same rule applies there and also in crypto, given it has still survived the crashes of 2013, 2018 and now 2022.
What will likely happen to crypto will be the same with the internet and tech startups and it is on regulations which many companies have been waiting for before re-entering again into using a select few cryptocurrencies and their technologies that fit their use-case and after regulatory clarity.
But you will frequently hear from the extreme anti-crypto folks who have for years have been praying for the 'total collapse of all cryptocurrencies' and a 'total ban on everyone using them'. I'm sure there were similar calls for the internet to be shutdown by many other skeptics as well, and there was a push back against 'Web 2.0'. But the more realistic outcome is the coexistence of a select few compliant cryptocurrencies and other crypto companies or projects that work with the current system with clear regulations. Crypto maximalists are just as unrealistic as the extreme anti-crypto folks in their goals of what will happen.
So like the internet and the tech bubble of 2010 - 2022, all had regulations and crypto will be the same. Hence the point that 90% of these crypto companies won't survive, but the remaining 10% will. Just exactly like the dotcom and 2010 tech startups you see existing today.