Ask HN: How do you think the banking crisis unfold?
4 comments
Thanks everyone for sharing thoughts. Pretty interesting to see very different thoughts and ideas. I guess now only option is to wait and see.
What I find remarkable is how victimization is a theme for just about every group today. “Woke” and “anti-Woke” are like matter and antimatter, both of which speak the language of victimization and being attacked on both sides it is little wonder that SV executives feel the same way.
This chart is amazing https://i.imgur.com/Qb8qv8o.png basically there's no end in sight. Everyone is moving their money to just 4 banks: Chase, Wells Fargo, Citi, and Bank of America. Because, why risk having your money in a small bank now?
At the same time Commercial Real Estate is imploding. SF has a 40% vacancy rate where pre-void it was 5%. It's like this in other cities too. These buildings have loans and without rent the loans will default. Then the bank owns it but what can the bank do with it? Sell it for a huge loss?
At the same time Commercial Real Estate is imploding. SF has a 40% vacancy rate where pre-void it was 5%. It's like this in other cities too. These buildings have loans and without rent the loans will default. Then the bank owns it but what can the bank do with it? Sell it for a huge loss?
It's not clear it's a "crisis" yet. (Everyone agrees it won't be like 2008, with large banks ever since then required to have more cash on hand to stave off any possible problems.)
If anything, banks that engaged in risky behavior are now being scrutinized and hardened. (And new kinds of lifelines are being made available to banks in trouble.)
There tends to be a baseline skepticism of the government and the banking sector (especially from vocal cryptocurrency advocates). I think some people are viewing current events through that lens. The future isn't always that easy to predict. (And yet that doesn't mean this is a crisis.)
If anything, banks that engaged in risky behavior are now being scrutinized and hardened. (And new kinds of lifelines are being made available to banks in trouble.)
There tends to be a baseline skepticism of the government and the banking sector (especially from vocal cryptocurrency advocates). I think some people are viewing current events through that lens. The future isn't always that easy to predict. (And yet that doesn't mean this is a crisis.)