Business advice plagued by survivor bias (2009)(longform.asmartbear.com)
longform.asmartbear.com
Business advice plagued by survivor bias (2009)
https://longform.asmartbear.com/survivor-bias/
86 comments
Chat gpt write some explanatory filler around a discovery.
"Choice" is often one of those: https://medium.com/@trendguardian/free-will-a-rich-fairy-tal...
It’s good to be aware of survivor bias but the discussion around it has been overdone and leads to pointless defeatism.
The airplane example is the canonical example but also ironic because it’s an example where there was a ton to learn from survivors. Their first takeaway was logically inconsistent but eventually they realized that places without bullet holes were the most important to armor. Because planes shot in other places survived. If no planes survived they’d learn nothing but instead they learned something useful from the survivors.
It doesn’t change that a WW2 fighter pilot would need some luck to survive but if he took the right lessons from survivors and armored his plane in the correct places he’d improve his probability of surviving.
One of my favorite pieces of business advice is since 90% of businesses fail, start 10 businesses and you’ll probably succeed. Of course that oversimplifies things but so does the original statistic . It’s also useful advice that helps you re-frame “luck” as stochastic risk that you can manage. And learning ways to lower probability of failure is a great way to manage risk even if there’s always some element of randomness at play.
The airplane example is the canonical example but also ironic because it’s an example where there was a ton to learn from survivors. Their first takeaway was logically inconsistent but eventually they realized that places without bullet holes were the most important to armor. Because planes shot in other places survived. If no planes survived they’d learn nothing but instead they learned something useful from the survivors.
It doesn’t change that a WW2 fighter pilot would need some luck to survive but if he took the right lessons from survivors and armored his plane in the correct places he’d improve his probability of surviving.
One of my favorite pieces of business advice is since 90% of businesses fail, start 10 businesses and you’ll probably succeed. Of course that oversimplifies things but so does the original statistic . It’s also useful advice that helps you re-frame “luck” as stochastic risk that you can manage. And learning ways to lower probability of failure is a great way to manage risk even if there’s always some element of randomness at play.
If 90% of businesses fail and you start 10 businesses, you still have about 35% chance of failing at all 10 of them.
This is assuming uncorrelated results too. As you observe more and more of your businesses failing, you would want to update your estimate of your own rate of failure. Each new failure in a string of only failures is slight evidence that your own rate of failure may be >90%, even if it's 90% on average for everyone.
Yes this is crucial. If you can’t improve your odds after nine tries then you are doing something very wrong.
That does not change the fact that the best thing you can do to tilt the odds in your favor is to choose your parents carefully.
That does not change the fact that the best thing you can do to tilt the odds in your favor is to choose your parents carefully.
You can have nine businesses all fail for separate reasons. Learn all you want from each failure but the next business might fail in new and creative ways no matter what lessons you apply from previous failures. The 10% chance to succeed is a combination of lots of factors, many of which are completely out of your control.
Life is probably too short to start 10 businesses
Not if nine of them fail.
Also, Elon Musk has done nine and he is only 52.
Also, Elon Musk has done nine and he is only 52.
I also wonder how many of the failed business in the stats already are an entrepreneurs third or fourth attempt. Some repeated attempts may already be factored into the failure rate!
The surest way to fail is to blame your parents.
> The surest way to fail is to blame your parents.
You wouldn't be wrong as they have a very strong correlation [1].
[1] https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/parents-income-not-smarts-...
You wouldn't be wrong as they have a very strong correlation [1].
[1] https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/parents-income-not-smarts-...
I had a conversation on an airplane with a lady that read scripts for a movie studio. I learned three things. You submit a script they'll read it for purely liability reasons. Most scripts are garbage. But of the ones that aren't about 10% get bought. So if you're good you can make a living script writing.
Some other bit about being a movie producer. Guy said people ask how you can become a producer. He said it's impossible. No one will let you produce a movie unless you've done one before. But if you have even if it is terrible and flops, you're a producer and can get work.
Combine those two. If you have the want, low grade cunning, and persistence you can totally make a living starting businesses after your first disaster.
Some other bit about being a movie producer. Guy said people ask how you can become a producer. He said it's impossible. No one will let you produce a movie unless you've done one before. But if you have even if it is terrible and flops, you're a producer and can get work.
Combine those two. If you have the want, low grade cunning, and persistence you can totally make a living starting businesses after your first disaster.
[deleted]
If 90% of businesses fail then just put armor on the ones with bullet holes.
Yes I understand basic math but I would implore you to improve your reading comprehension as I used the word “probably “ (which 65% qualified as) and emphasized we can’t eliminate luck but can influence it.
Sir, this is Hacker News. Replying with snarky arithmetic is pretty much the what passes for a bon mot around here. If you don't enjoy that, you will probably (>65% chance) find HN a stressful forum.
OTOH, if you assume we're not on average dumb or trying to get a rise out of you, you'll have a good time.
If I wanted to be really snarky, I would point out that words like "probably" actually have agreed upon numerical values (give or take), and 65% would often be described as "about as likely as not". [^1] Although it's close to the "likely" range, I will grant you. :P
[^1]: https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/ar4-uncertai...
OTOH, if you assume we're not on average dumb or trying to get a rise out of you, you'll have a good time.
If I wanted to be really snarky, I would point out that words like "probably" actually have agreed upon numerical values (give or take), and 65% would often be described as "about as likely as not". [^1] Although it's close to the "likely" range, I will grant you. :P
[^1]: https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/ar4-uncertai...
Your account is from 2021 so spare me the lecture on the rules of Hacker News. If you don’t want me to assume you have poor reading comprehension skills, don’t leave comments indicating that.
Being pissy to strangers on the internet is a choice, friend. I hope whatever is making you feel bad about yourself gets better.
The odds of being shot down in a B-17 were the same for the first 5 missions as for the next 25.
They definitely had a level of control over their fate.
They definitely had a level of control over their fate.
The risk compounds. It's like playing Russian roulette more than once. The risk for each trigger pull is the same. Yet taking that risk repeatedly means your odds of ending up dead are worse the more times you have to play.
> The risk for each trigger pull is the same
The point of my remark is for B-17 crews, each pull is less risky, because they learned how to avoid getting shot down. For example, at the end of each mission, the crews were required to clean the guns. Some crews on the way back over the channel, would take their guns apart and clean them to save time.
One day, my dad said a Junkers was lurking near the airfield, and got behind the crews lined up for landing. Brrp! Brrp! Brrp! and down they went, without firing a shot in return. He said he never dismantled his gun before they were safely on the ground.
Crews who successfully survived 30+ missions were often rotated back to the states to train the next crews in how to survive.
The point of my remark is for B-17 crews, each pull is less risky, because they learned how to avoid getting shot down. For example, at the end of each mission, the crews were required to clean the guns. Some crews on the way back over the channel, would take their guns apart and clean them to save time.
One day, my dad said a Junkers was lurking near the airfield, and got behind the crews lined up for landing. Brrp! Brrp! Brrp! and down they went, without firing a shot in return. He said he never dismantled his gun before they were safely on the ground.
Crews who successfully survived 30+ missions were often rotated back to the states to train the next crews in how to survive.
A shower thought I had recently is that we should start referring to "Business cases" as "Survival cases" and "Business books" as "Survival books" and that makes the inherent bias so much clearer.
Well,… my fave post grad course was Bankruptcy. It was insolvency after insolvency after insolvency and in a way also survivorship bias, but I digress — like Poor Charlie (RIP) used to say: find out where you are going to die and make sure never to go there.
And if you happen to end up there any way, make sure you die properly and in grace. Aka, manage your bankruptcy properly, without any shenenigans and refusal to accept the inevitable.
When I first found Jason's blog, I was surprised not to see it posted here more frequently. Many of his old posts ring just as true today as a decade ago, and his writings about the personal aspects of startup life are unlike most of what you find written by successful founders.
Well, it is posted pretty frequently, including old posts: https://news.ycombinator.com/from?site=asmartbear.com
Doesn’t ever make it to the front page? I’ve been here a decade and don’t ever remember seeing it there.
Second this, it's a great blog. I discovered it about 2 months ago and have been reading through the old posts ever since.
Most advice has bias. Of course the people giving business advice want to talk about their successes. Just like the people on social media post how perfect their lives are.
It's especially interesting to hear advice from people who lack empathy. Maybe high performers giving advice to someone with a disability. Or someone who got lucky that credits their hard work and denies luck had anything to do with it.
I'm tired of it. I'll look at some advice just for curiosity, but I'm done trying. What happens, happens. No point in repeatedly wasting effort.
It's especially interesting to hear advice from people who lack empathy. Maybe high performers giving advice to someone with a disability. Or someone who got lucky that credits their hard work and denies luck had anything to do with it.
I'm tired of it. I'll look at some advice just for curiosity, but I'm done trying. What happens, happens. No point in repeatedly wasting effort.
This bias is particularly dangerous, in that so much business advice comes down to "work hard and persevere". In the case of a business that's just not going to happen, this is pessimal advice that makes a bad situation worse.
I think a fair amount of "common advice" is wrong. Things like "work hard", "you can be whatever you want", "persevere"
.
There are truths in there; success does take hard work, but hard work does not lead to success. Success takes perseverance, but perseverance does not lead to success.
Baking bread requires time, but having time does not lead to bread.
You can do all the work, you can have most of the ingredients, but without yeast you don't get bread. It doesn't matter how much time, perseverance, work or dreams you put in.
Finding the right advice is hard because unless someone can see what you are doing right, it's hard to know what is missing.
Yes, sometimes the yeast is luck. But even knowing that is helpful. Luck (aka chance) can often be improved. I was lucky to land in the job I did, but I am least put myself in the right place at the right time.
The worst advice is something you are already doing (hard work perseverence) without success. It's the equivalent of "what you are doing is not working, but keep doing it anyway" which is terrible.
There are truths in there; success does take hard work, but hard work does not lead to success. Success takes perseverance, but perseverance does not lead to success.
Baking bread requires time, but having time does not lead to bread.
You can do all the work, you can have most of the ingredients, but without yeast you don't get bread. It doesn't matter how much time, perseverance, work or dreams you put in.
Finding the right advice is hard because unless someone can see what you are doing right, it's hard to know what is missing.
Yes, sometimes the yeast is luck. But even knowing that is helpful. Luck (aka chance) can often be improved. I was lucky to land in the job I did, but I am least put myself in the right place at the right time.
The worst advice is something you are already doing (hard work perseverence) without success. It's the equivalent of "what you are doing is not working, but keep doing it anyway" which is terrible.
Empathy is useful, but also a hindrance. I don't-want- to tell you your product is crap, your market is non-existent, your strategy is flawed, you are a terrible manager, your hard work is on things that don't matter, because you're a human and I have empathy.
But sometimes the advice you really really need is not platitudes that make you feel better, but hard hitting truths that (as a side effect) may make you feel useless.
-Good advice- that applies to your specific context, is hard to find. But it is invaluable.
But sometimes the advice you really really need is not platitudes that make you feel better, but hard hitting truths that (as a side effect) may make you feel useless.
-Good advice- that applies to your specific context, is hard to find. But it is invaluable.
That's still empathy because your catering to their true needs and not just their ego.
Is it -empathy- though? I suppose I can deliver it in an empathetic way, but I'm not sure telling someone bad news straight will win empathetic points with observers.
The truth hurts sometimes, and empathy makes us want to soften that hurt. But advice is valuable if it's right, not just kind.
Of course its also possible to deliver good advice in such a noxious way that it's impossible to take seriously.
The truth hurts sometimes, and empathy makes us want to soften that hurt. But advice is valuable if it's right, not just kind.
Of course its also possible to deliver good advice in such a noxious way that it's impossible to take seriously.
Failure to learn from one's failures will induce inevitable further failure.
Related:
Business Advice Plagued by Survivor Bias - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=4314107 - July 2012 (1 comment)
Business Advice Plagued by Survivor Bias - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=768297 - Aug 2009 (36 comments)
Business Advice Plagued by Survivor Bias - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=4314107 - July 2012 (1 comment)
Business Advice Plagued by Survivor Bias - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=768297 - Aug 2009 (36 comments)
Why didn't the RAF just preemptively shoot holes in the locations of those red dots to make their planes more likely to survive?
It was cheaper to have the enemy do the work and waste the ammo.
[deleted]
I've built quite a few apps and web pages that ultimately failed primarily due to not having a client. To take a lesson from my failures, always make sure you have a client.
A successful business is where you get enough money out to make the investment worthwhile.
Given X clients paying Y with the total expenses by Z as long as X * Y > Z the business can remain solvent.
Profitability, return on investment, scale, and whatever other metric you add changes this formula.
Given X clients paying Y with the total expenses by Z as long as X * Y > Z the business can remain solvent.
Profitability, return on investment, scale, and whatever other metric you add changes this formula.
You hear about failure case studies too. I think it's more of a selection bias, or a narrative bias: they pick case studies that prove a point, the same way you look for and cite statistics and articles to support the point you were already going to make in an internet fight, rather than trying to represent the entire complexity of the domain you're squabbling in.
If you want to be a pop star, is it better to get advice from Taylor Swift, or your local garage band getting high school gigs?
False dichotomy.
Get advice from a 2nd-hand source who has collected a bunch of 1st-hand sources and done analysis on them.
Same reason Wikipedia doesn't like primary sources; being a primary source doesn't mean you're correct. [1]
[1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:Identifying_and_usin...
Get advice from a 2nd-hand source who has collected a bunch of 1st-hand sources and done analysis on them.
Same reason Wikipedia doesn't like primary sources; being a primary source doesn't mean you're correct. [1]
[1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:Identifying_and_usin...
For me „generic business advice” is like Taylor Swift explaining how to sing.
It is not going to make you sing like her.
So I’d go for advice to actual voice coach.
It is not going to make you sing like her.
So I’d go for advice to actual voice coach.
The only thing Taylor Swift is qualified to advise about is how to succeed if you are born Taylor Swift.
As if all the work she put into it and her single minded focus made no difference.
You cannot be a Taylor Swift without putting in work.
Putting in the work, in 99.lotsofnines% of cases, still won't make you Taylor Swift. Her success is - quite literally - unique; https://www.npr.org/2023/07/17/1188091063/taylor-swift-billb....
Putting in the work, in 99.lotsofnines% of cases, still won't make you Taylor Swift. Her success is - quite literally - unique; https://www.npr.org/2023/07/17/1188091063/taylor-swift-billb....
Once again, doing the work means nothing if you're not working smart. Swift is a very good businessman, and only a mediocre singer/songwriter. She works like hell, and works smart.
99.lotsofnines% of people are simply not willing to do what it takes.
The success of the Rolling Stones is no accident, either. Mick Jagger relentlessly studied successful artists and emulated what worked for them. Freddie Mercury's success is the same. KISS is not a very good band, but they are very very good businessmen and showmen.
This kind of work is not a guarantee of success, but not doing the work is a guarantee of not being very successful. You see this in the one-hit wonders. You could say they got lucky, because they were unable to deliver again.
99.lotsofnines% of people are simply not willing to do what it takes.
The success of the Rolling Stones is no accident, either. Mick Jagger relentlessly studied successful artists and emulated what worked for them. Freddie Mercury's success is the same. KISS is not a very good band, but they are very very good businessmen and showmen.
This kind of work is not a guarantee of success, but not doing the work is a guarantee of not being very successful. You see this in the one-hit wonders. You could say they got lucky, because they were unable to deliver again.
> Once again, doing the work means nothing if you're not working smart.
Once again, at the Taylor Swift scale of things, working smart doesn't either. Not by itself. There are fundamentally more smart, hard working, pretty, fit young women who really really want to be a music superstar than there are available slots.
Talent, effort, and luck are all required. The need for luck fades with repeated success, but plenty of those one-hit wonders put in lots of talent and smart effort, but were still not lucky enough to parlay it into a long career.
Did hard work, smarts, fitness, looks, etc. all play a role? Sure. Are they the full equation? No.
Once again, at the Taylor Swift scale of things, working smart doesn't either. Not by itself. There are fundamentally more smart, hard working, pretty, fit young women who really really want to be a music superstar than there are available slots.
Talent, effort, and luck are all required. The need for luck fades with repeated success, but plenty of those one-hit wonders put in lots of talent and smart effort, but were still not lucky enough to parlay it into a long career.
Did hard work, smarts, fitness, looks, etc. all play a role? Sure. Are they the full equation? No.
I've heard a one-hit wonders play their other songs. It makes it pretty clear why they were one-hit wonders - they lacked the ability to create more good songs.
Take a listen to Led Zeppelin I. Every song on the album is very good. Enter Led Zeppelin II. Every song is even better. Led Zeppelin III. Same story. I can't even think of a bad Zep song.
Then look at the Monkees. They thought they were hot stuff. The album they did on their own, Headquarters, is a simply awful album.
> There are fundamentally more smart, hard working, pretty, fit young women who really really want to be a music superstar than there are available slots.
The ones who get to the top aren't there because they are lucky, they're there because they worked harder and smarter than the also-rans.
Are you going to run down Bruno Mars, too?
"They lived in the "slums of Hawaii", on the back of a car, on rooftops, and in an abandoned bird zoo"
Take a listen to Led Zeppelin I. Every song on the album is very good. Enter Led Zeppelin II. Every song is even better. Led Zeppelin III. Same story. I can't even think of a bad Zep song.
Then look at the Monkees. They thought they were hot stuff. The album they did on their own, Headquarters, is a simply awful album.
> There are fundamentally more smart, hard working, pretty, fit young women who really really want to be a music superstar than there are available slots.
The ones who get to the top aren't there because they are lucky, they're there because they worked harder and smarter than the also-rans.
Are you going to run down Bruno Mars, too?
"They lived in the "slums of Hawaii", on the back of a car, on rooftops, and in an abandoned bird zoo"
--- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bruno_MarsExactly right. The way I see is (made up numbers):
1. People in the world - 10 billion
2. People who want to be successful like Swift - 10 million
3. People who have all necessary ingredients to be successful like Swift - 10K
4. People who will actually reach to that level - 10
Somehow people think that either number 10K does not exist or they can achieve Swift level success because they fulfill the criteria.
1. People in the world - 10 billion
2. People who want to be successful like Swift - 10 million
3. People who have all necessary ingredients to be successful like Swift - 10K
4. People who will actually reach to that level - 10
Somehow people think that either number 10K does not exist or they can achieve Swift level success because they fulfill the criteria.
How many others did exactly this (the advice she would give?) and didn't make it, because they weren't her.
Taylor Swift is 34. How much effort do you suspect she puts in to keeping her figure fit for her skimpy outfits? I bet it's a lot. Wealth cannot buy that, it comes from concerted, sustained effort.
I’d say not much, genetics plus being rich does all the hard work.
I do know ladies that can munch sweets all day plus eat meals and they are just skinny as they always were.
Rich people also don’t have to eat that much better to stay fit.
Personally I don’t gain weight if I just eat what is normal for me, I gain weight when I go on vacations and have beer every day
I do know ladies that can munch sweets all day plus eat meals and they are just skinny as they always were.
Rich people also don’t have to eat that much better to stay fit.
Personally I don’t gain weight if I just eat what is normal for me, I gain weight when I go on vacations and have beer every day
Tell me how being rich keeps one effortlessly trim and fit.
You don't have to be obscene rich to afford box diets that are catered directly to your home, that has counted amount of calories for you. But still being able to afford that one is quite rich I'd say.
Software dev, middle management job can easily afford box diet, you don't have to be Taylor swift.
Other thing is if you go to the shop and you are rich you can afford all the chocolate bars that are there and there is no money that can buy you willpower to stop you from doing that and then eating them all at once - this kind of thing I agree. But that is also a caricature of being obese.
Software dev, middle management job can easily afford box diet, you don't have to be Taylor swift.
Other thing is if you go to the shop and you are rich you can afford all the chocolate bars that are there and there is no money that can buy you willpower to stop you from doing that and then eating them all at once - this kind of thing I agree. But that is also a caricature of being obese.
How many did nothing, and failed?
Honestly, I think it'd be better to get advice from both. Following either advice will unlikely yield the same results, but that doesn't mean either option is without something beneficial to offer.
...I'm not sure what you think the answer to this is?
For the most part, it's a rhetorical question.
But there's a massive trend of people born wealthy to attribute their success to hard work, rather than giving any credit to the fact that they had a massive safety net if they failed at their ventures. Every billionaire was born a millionaire.
Taylor Swift had a huge amount of support, both financial and emotional, from her parents. Her parents weren't millionaires, but they were decently well off, enough that they could move her to Nashville just to help put her career on a launch pad. She's extremely talented, but talent alone is extremely unlikely to be enough. You have to be able to meet the right people at the right time in the right place. All that together takes money and flexibility, which aren't things you earn by just working super hard.
But there's a massive trend of people born wealthy to attribute their success to hard work, rather than giving any credit to the fact that they had a massive safety net if they failed at their ventures. Every billionaire was born a millionaire.
Taylor Swift had a huge amount of support, both financial and emotional, from her parents. Her parents weren't millionaires, but they were decently well off, enough that they could move her to Nashville just to help put her career on a launch pad. She's extremely talented, but talent alone is extremely unlikely to be enough. You have to be able to meet the right people at the right time in the right place. All that together takes money and flexibility, which aren't things you earn by just working super hard.
> Every billionaire was born a millionaire.
Not Musk. Not Jobs. Not Gates. Not Bezos. Not Oprah. Not Paul McCartney. And so on.
> Her parents weren't millionaires
Not Taylor Swift, either.
> She's extremely talented
I've heard her songs. Her talent seems mediocre to me.
> which aren't things you earn by just working super hard
You have to work smart. Working hard at the wrong things leads to nowhere.
Not Musk. Not Jobs. Not Gates. Not Bezos. Not Oprah. Not Paul McCartney. And so on.
> Her parents weren't millionaires
Not Taylor Swift, either.
> She's extremely talented
I've heard her songs. Her talent seems mediocre to me.
> which aren't things you earn by just working super hard
You have to work smart. Working hard at the wrong things leads to nowhere.
a statistician, so you will know how stacked the odds are
If you quit before you start, your odds are 0%.
You've been posting on HN since 2009, so at a rough guess you're either late 20s if you started early or somewhere around 35-45.
That's 15 years of time to apply your own advice. Where's your billion dollars? How many "tries" have you made in that time? What do you think the odds of success are based on the number of failures?
We're not talking about middle class family home lifestyles and salaried jobs here, we're talking about SUCCESS which you seem to think has some obvious advice that just needs to be applied and also that you know who is dispensing the good advice. No personal factors, no luck right? Has that worked for you so far? Will you have a billion dollars by the time you're 50? In terms of % towards a billion dollars, where do you sit?
That's 15 years of time to apply your own advice. Where's your billion dollars? How many "tries" have you made in that time? What do you think the odds of success are based on the number of failures?
We're not talking about middle class family home lifestyles and salaried jobs here, we're talking about SUCCESS which you seem to think has some obvious advice that just needs to be applied and also that you know who is dispensing the good advice. No personal factors, no luck right? Has that worked for you so far? Will you have a billion dollars by the time you're 50? In terms of % towards a billion dollars, where do you sit?
Are you having a bad day or something? The tone of this is way too close to a personal attack for a response to the controversial statement of "you miss all the shots you don't take".
You've been posting to HN for longer than I have, so I figured you would already know who Walter Bright is. You don't have to guess how old he is, it's easy to find that information here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Walter_Bright . If he can be told that he hasn't accomplished enough for his opinion to matter, what of the rest of us?
Walter doesn't need me to white-knight him, but I'd really hate to see HN turn into the kind of place where the mere concept of trying hard to succeed is attacked. Yeah, the odds suck, and most advice sucks too. But unabashed pessimism is some of the worst advice out there.
You've been posting to HN for longer than I have, so I figured you would already know who Walter Bright is. You don't have to guess how old he is, it's easy to find that information here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Walter_Bright . If he can be told that he hasn't accomplished enough for his opinion to matter, what of the rest of us?
Walter doesn't need me to white-knight him, but I'd really hate to see HN turn into the kind of place where the mere concept of trying hard to succeed is attacked. Yeah, the odds suck, and most advice sucks too. But unabashed pessimism is some of the worst advice out there.
This isn't a question of what he's accomplished, this is about money - that's what this conversation was founded on. Lots of people accomplish lots of things, they don't get rich (around the USD$billion valuation by the terms of this discussion) from them.
The metric we've had put up is the money == "good advice on how to get it". And if that's the case, then giving any advice now asks the important question: where's your piles of cash?
The metric we've had put up is the money == "good advice on how to get it". And if that's the case, then giving any advice now asks the important question: where's your piles of cash?
Bill Gates famously spend a couple decades working 10 hours a day, 7 days a week, no vacations. I was never willing to work that hard, and so I accept that I never made Bill Gates billions.
I've made enough off of my investments to be able to work full time for the D Language Foundation. I've shared many times on HN how to do this, and have advised many friends, and nobody follows the advice. :-/
Advice like I bought a used Ford and used it as a daily driver for well over 30 years until it finally disintegrated.
I've made enough off of my investments to be able to work full time for the D Language Foundation. I've shared many times on HN how to do this, and have advised many friends, and nobody follows the advice. :-/
Advice like I bought a used Ford and used it as a daily driver for well over 30 years until it finally disintegrated.
If you worked a standard 9 to 5 and took 4 weeks of vacation a year, then you worked ~1920 hours per year.
Bill Gate's self-reported work schedule would give him 3640 hours per year, meaning he worked about double the hours of a "regular person".
Bill Gates in 2018 dollars as of 1999 was worth about $150 billion dollars. Giving him an hourly rate of 2018-USD$1,369,863 per hour over 30 years.
Whatever you, or I, or pretty much anyone else on HN is worth is a rounding error towards 0 of that value.
While it is certainly possible that value goes exponential after that first 40 hours, there's plenty of people on Earth who work far longer hours then that and will never be worth anywhere near as much.
Bill Gate's self-reported work schedule would give him 3640 hours per year, meaning he worked about double the hours of a "regular person".
Bill Gates in 2018 dollars as of 1999 was worth about $150 billion dollars. Giving him an hourly rate of 2018-USD$1,369,863 per hour over 30 years.
Whatever you, or I, or pretty much anyone else on HN is worth is a rounding error towards 0 of that value.
While it is certainly possible that value goes exponential after that first 40 hours, there's plenty of people on Earth who work far longer hours then that and will never be worth anywhere near as much.
That's because they're working on the wrong things.
I emphasize over and over that if you want to get ahead, working hard isn't enough. You have to be working on the right things.
I emphasize over and over that if you want to get ahead, working hard isn't enough. You have to be working on the right things.
All my life most people I encountered have a defeatist attitude about success, i.e. they attribute success to anything and everything other than their own choices.
One of my friends made and lost two fortunes, and was building a third when a brief illness tragically took him. He never lost his enthusiasm and optimism for going at it again. He rose far beyond his peers from his childhood, even having a couple WSJ articles about him.
It saddens me to read constantly in HN comments about how people are determined to convince others that one cannot succeed in America without wealth, luck, etc. It's all defeatism and nonsense.
One of my friends made and lost two fortunes, and was building a third when a brief illness tragically took him. He never lost his enthusiasm and optimism for going at it again. He rose far beyond his peers from his childhood, even having a couple WSJ articles about him.
It saddens me to read constantly in HN comments about how people are determined to convince others that one cannot succeed in America without wealth, luck, etc. It's all defeatism and nonsense.
I've missed at least 4 opportunities to be a billionaire. I missed them because I was stupid. The failures were entirely my fault.
My parents were lower middle class.
My parents were lower middle class.
We can learn from failures if we really want.
For example, see https://www.failory.com
For example, see https://www.failory.com
Good advice doesn't stop being good just because people stop following it. Ultimately success is a matter of effort.
> Ultimately success is a matter of effort
It's so sad that people still believe this lie.
It creates a victim-blaming mentality of assuming that anybody that failed simply didn't try hard enough.
Sometimes, the success of a business comes down to just being at the right place at the right time. Sometimes, it's just a matter of having rich parents that gave you enough seed money that you could actually dedicate time to your business rather than having to work 40 hours/week just to pay the bills before being able to spend any time on your business.
It's so sad that people still believe this lie.
It creates a victim-blaming mentality of assuming that anybody that failed simply didn't try hard enough.
Sometimes, the success of a business comes down to just being at the right place at the right time. Sometimes, it's just a matter of having rich parents that gave you enough seed money that you could actually dedicate time to your business rather than having to work 40 hours/week just to pay the bills before being able to spend any time on your business.
I took "Ultimately success is a matter of effort" to mean only that.
Even if you were handed opportunities on a silver platter (ie. rich parents), you still had to put in your own effort somewhere along the chain to get the ball rolling.
If you never start, no matter how lucky or good your circumstances are, you will still be at 0%. Therefore, there's no success without effort.
Even if you were handed opportunities on a silver platter (ie. rich parents), you still had to put in your own effort somewhere along the chain to get the ball rolling.
If you never start, no matter how lucky or good your circumstances are, you will still be at 0%. Therefore, there's no success without effort.
If that were true, people who work harder at their small business would make more, but that is not the case.
Ehh, you should always take general business advice for what it is. It is usually not a great idea to treat them as gospel given that for every best-practice, there is an exception. Instead, realize that some things are (probably) necessary but not sufficient for success. Also, try to understand why the recommended approaches succeeded. That way, you can examine for yourself if that particular bromide applies to your situation.
This seems overly reductive. Why would you want to take business advice from people who weren't able to build a sustainable business. I get that starting a business is fraught with risk and there are factors outside your control that can impact, but the reasoning on this seems to basically boil down to. "There is nothing you can do to be successful and everything is at the arbitrary whims of fate."
Or to put it about another aspect
"Career advice plagued by survivorship bias." That souns equally stupid.
Or to put it about another aspect
"Career advice plagued by survivorship bias." That souns equally stupid.
If you're successful then you can benefit from advice of other successful people because you live on an easier monetary playing field where just about any piece of advice you are given becomes self-fulfilling because of the amounts of capital involved.
Also, if some rich person gives you advice and you follow it, they (and their friends) will be more likely to invest in your company because they agree and believe in their own advice and they don't want to see your startup fail because of them. There is ego at play.
If you're not successful (which is almost everyone) then you should not listen to advice from successful people because it doesn't actually work in your situation. Instead, you should listen to people who failed and understand why they failed. They'll tell you useful things like "find a niche where you can sell your product 100% word of mouth" because they understand how search engines and social media works against you when you don't have capital or influential social connections. And these failed entrepreneurs probably know one person who was able to launch a small lifestyle business like that. This is realistic and achievable and minimizes the role of luck.
Also, if some rich person gives you advice and you follow it, they (and their friends) will be more likely to invest in your company because they agree and believe in their own advice and they don't want to see your startup fail because of them. There is ego at play.
If you're not successful (which is almost everyone) then you should not listen to advice from successful people because it doesn't actually work in your situation. Instead, you should listen to people who failed and understand why they failed. They'll tell you useful things like "find a niche where you can sell your product 100% word of mouth" because they understand how search engines and social media works against you when you don't have capital or influential social connections. And these failed entrepreneurs probably know one person who was able to launch a small lifestyle business like that. This is realistic and achievable and minimizes the role of luck.
> It turns out Jim started by combing through 1435 companies looking for good candidates for the book, and picked eleven.
This to not survivor bias! Call it selection bias if you want, but it's plain old data manipulation!