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4 comments
That's just a gamble.
The font page of this subreddit is full of huge trading success, such as of turning 3-4 figures into 5-6 figures or more. The usual or default response is to blame survivorship bias, but I have long believed that there are a handful of individuals, maybe a couple dozen out of the thousands of active members, who have actual demonstrable trading skill that cannot be explained by luck or insider trading. They can read or see the future, and also optimal position sizing, so they do not lose everything if wrong. Wall street is 'mostly' random, so the parts that are not random, in theory if someone is smart enough, can be predicted to profit.
If you have 1024 people each of whom make 8 trades (and win/loss is 50/50), 4 of those thousand will succeed with every trade.
Given that, survivorship bias is 100% the right answer. If you have a "gut feel" that something else is going on, chances are your gut feel is wrong.
Given that, survivorship bias is 100% the right answer. If you have a "gut feel" that something else is going on, chances are your gut feel is wrong.
Especially in this case where it seemed like he didn't even expect this result.