Re: model Supremacy -- I think there's so much cross-pollination between the AI labs that this is unlikely. Everybody at these labs basically know what everybody at the other labs are doing. *data* can be hard to get but I don't think acquiring good data is positive feedback loop-y where whoever wins just skyrockets away from everybody else.
Model stagnation, I thought stagnation was coming last year, then Opus 4.5 came out. I think maybe the models are slowing at getting *smarter* per se, but they are still getting better at coding. And even if they stopped getting better at coding, if they got as good as they have gotten at coding on other fields of inquiry (like, say, writing) so I think we've got a ways to go yet before the progress in terms of economic usefulness slows down.
Model stagnation, I thought stagnation was coming last year, then Opus 4.5 came out. I think maybe the models are slowing at getting *smarter* per se, but they are still getting better at coding. And even if they stopped getting better at coding, if they got as good as they have gotten at coding on other fields of inquiry (like, say, writing) so I think we've got a ways to go yet before the progress in terms of economic usefulness slows down.