Replacing the PC(dcurt.is)
dcurt.is
Replacing the PC
http://dcurt.is/the-death-of-the-tablet
83 comments
While I'm not necessarily disputing your conclusion, I can't agree with the validity of Japanese trends as evidence in this context. Curtis' argument was largely focused on behaviors of differing age demographics, and Japan's age distribution is nowhere near that of the US currently (highly weighted towards the elderly).
> and Japan's age distribution is nowhere near that of the US currently (highly weighted towards the elderly).
Nope, Curtis is talking about behaviors of younger people, just as I am. My point is that Japan is the most mature market out there for mobile phone, since there's no other country that has such a long and significant mobile phone history out there. It's been prevalent even with teenagers since the mid 90s, and now most kids get a smartphone before they even reach 10. And they could do everything with it. Yet the kids from the mid 90s and mid 2000s still went and purchased PCs when they grew up.
People's behavior changes as they age. That's why you don't keep eating "happy meals" at McDonald's when you are 30.
Nope, Curtis is talking about behaviors of younger people, just as I am. My point is that Japan is the most mature market out there for mobile phone, since there's no other country that has such a long and significant mobile phone history out there. It's been prevalent even with teenagers since the mid 90s, and now most kids get a smartphone before they even reach 10. And they could do everything with it. Yet the kids from the mid 90s and mid 2000s still went and purchased PCs when they grew up.
People's behavior changes as they age. That's why you don't keep eating "happy meals" at McDonald's when you are 30.
My point is that despite the fact Japan has a more mature mobile phone market, the surrounding society doesn't have the same age demographics as, say, the United States. This difference will affect marketing, product and service design, etc. Even if that's the way younger people behave in the marketing environment of Japan, it may not be the way they would behave in the marketing environment of a younger country.
Not sure what you are aiming at here. Nobody does marketing for the whole population at once. You know, marketing target segments of people, and you have marketing for younger people as well as for older people, and design follows the needs of each of these segments. It's not because there are more older people in Japan than in other countries in proportion that companies stop targeting younger people. Come in Japan and you'll see a very different picture with most of the culture catering to younger audiences.
There is some difference between the Japanese Mobile Phone market, and the Smart Phone Market, in terms of jobs could be accomplished. The smart phone market was effectively launched when the Android/iPhone devices that could run third party apps, came about in 2007/2008. The disruption that these devices brought about was not to mobile phones, but to laptops/PCs, and should be viewed from that angle.
No, Japanese mobile phones could already do most of what you can do nowadays on a smartphone with web interfaces instead of application for most of the services available in Japan. They had defined a specific protocol for mobile phones web pages to make it easy to navigate and display information. Technically you did not need a PC for most services anymore - that's precisely why I am using Japan as an example. If you don't believe me, go back and check what Japanese mobile phones could do back in the 90s. They were not pretty, but you could do a whole lot with them.
The PC will die when phones can do everything PCs can do. This will require both the ability to hook up larger screens and/or other larger form factor interfaces (e.g. Oculus-type things) and serious evolution in the abilities and openness of mobile phone OSes. Feudalized devices that can only run a narrow subset of special-purpose "apps" cannot replace PCs for anyone who wants to do more than browse, photograph, play games, and e-mail. That might be some percentage of the population but it's not going to be everyone, probably not even a majority.
The reason why I believe that PCs will never go completely extinct is that you need large computers for a number of specific applications. 3D rendering, Video editing are computing intensive. Gaming is extremely intensive and it will be even more so with the Occulus Rift and the like, and there's no way mobile devices will bring the same level of graphics as a 1000 dollar graphics card eating 500 Watts, unless there is some kind of technology breakthrough nobody knows about yet. Plugging your mobile phone into a larger screen will work fine for basic browsing and basic use, and that's certainly where Ubuntu wants to go (and they are not alone), but anything beyond that is not going to cut it.
They won't go completely extinct, the way mainframes haven't. But they'll get relegated to smaller and smaller niches.
My computer is in a huge tower case. In the mid 90's I could go into any computer store and pick one up. Today, finding even a full size ATX case on display is a rarity, and most of the PCs on sale local to me are in form factors closer to Mini-ITX, or are all-in-one PCs.
Most people simply don't need enough computing power to need the big units any more - their needs may increase, but they're increasing at a slow enough pace that the size of computer they need keeps dropping.
It may not "cut it" for anything beyond basic browsing and basic use today, but that's rapidly changing. My phone performance over the last 3 years have increased several times faster than my desktop and laptop performance (to a large extent because there's lots of "cheap" gains still for phones). The gap is narrowing.
My computer is in a huge tower case. In the mid 90's I could go into any computer store and pick one up. Today, finding even a full size ATX case on display is a rarity, and most of the PCs on sale local to me are in form factors closer to Mini-ITX, or are all-in-one PCs.
Most people simply don't need enough computing power to need the big units any more - their needs may increase, but they're increasing at a slow enough pace that the size of computer they need keeps dropping.
It may not "cut it" for anything beyond basic browsing and basic use today, but that's rapidly changing. My phone performance over the last 3 years have increased several times faster than my desktop and laptop performance (to a large extent because there's lots of "cheap" gains still for phones). The gap is narrowing.
Well if virtual reality (OR) becomes any popular in the near future, I tell you the PC is going to undergo a revival very quickly, because none of the ARM devices out there have any hope of catching up on the graphical power of the better PC graphic cards out there.
> They won't go completely extinct, the way mainframes haven't. But they'll get relegated to smaller and smaller niches.
PC are STILL selling by hundreds of millions every single year. Saying it's dying is like saying winter is coming just because you have a cooler summer day.
> They won't go completely extinct, the way mainframes haven't. But they'll get relegated to smaller and smaller niches.
PC are STILL selling by hundreds of millions every single year. Saying it's dying is like saying winter is coming just because you have a cooler summer day.
"They won't go completely extinct, the way mainframes haven't. But they'll get relegated to smaller and smaller niches."
The small screen size of a mobile phone will always limit it's suitability for particular tasks. I can't imagine any office, for example, replacing their desktop PCs with smartphones. That's hardly a niche market. Smartphones are good for consumption, but not so good for creation. For example, even the simple task of word-processing is painful on such a small screen using an on-screen keybboard.
The small screen size of a mobile phone will always limit it's suitability for particular tasks. I can't imagine any office, for example, replacing their desktop PCs with smartphones. That's hardly a niche market. Smartphones are good for consumption, but not so good for creation. For example, even the simple task of word-processing is painful on such a small screen using an on-screen keybboard.
This entirely misses the point: As you say, the mobile still does not replace every of the PC's uses. But that is rapidly changing.
The performance of the average persons PC is stagnating. Not because they can't get faster PC's, but because people increasingly have opted to slow their upgrades, and upgrade to cheaper units.
Meanwhile smartphone performance has skyrocketed.
Couple that with wireless streaming of display, and wireless keyboards, and we're very rapidly converging on a situation where a large portion of the population can get everything their want in terms of computing from their phone.
This is not something Japan has had since the late 90s.
Maybe people won't use their phone, but the current desktop form factors are as good as dead. They've been rapidly shrinking for years already. My local stores pretty much only have all-in-one PC/screen combo's and various tiny form-factors already. There's no reason to believe the shrinking won't continue, and when the phone form factors and PC form factors meet, there'll be little reason for most people not to carry their primary PC with them.
The performance of the average persons PC is stagnating. Not because they can't get faster PC's, but because people increasingly have opted to slow their upgrades, and upgrade to cheaper units.
Meanwhile smartphone performance has skyrocketed.
Couple that with wireless streaming of display, and wireless keyboards, and we're very rapidly converging on a situation where a large portion of the population can get everything their want in terms of computing from their phone.
This is not something Japan has had since the late 90s.
Maybe people won't use their phone, but the current desktop form factors are as good as dead. They've been rapidly shrinking for years already. My local stores pretty much only have all-in-one PC/screen combo's and various tiny form-factors already. There's no reason to believe the shrinking won't continue, and when the phone form factors and PC form factors meet, there'll be little reason for most people not to carry their primary PC with them.
> Meanwhile smartphone performance has skyrocketed.
It's mainly because they started from zero in the first place. But I can tell you the performance of newer phones is nothing like 3 times of last year's ones. The increase of performance in single thread is also stagnating on phones, and you will soon hit a barrier in how much you can deliver per watt and per core in the same form factor.
PCs hardware is increasing at a slow pace because there's plenty of power available to run most applications very well already. On phones, demanding applications can make your phone crawl, so obviously there's a clear need for better performance, while my 4 years old laptop still runs most applications just fine.
That's also why PC sales seem to stagnate: you don't replace your PC as often as your phone or tablet.
It's mainly because they started from zero in the first place. But I can tell you the performance of newer phones is nothing like 3 times of last year's ones. The increase of performance in single thread is also stagnating on phones, and you will soon hit a barrier in how much you can deliver per watt and per core in the same form factor.
PCs hardware is increasing at a slow pace because there's plenty of power available to run most applications very well already. On phones, demanding applications can make your phone crawl, so obviously there's a clear need for better performance, while my 4 years old laptop still runs most applications just fine.
That's also why PC sales seem to stagnate: you don't replace your PC as often as your phone or tablet.
Smartphones are not technologically capable of doing all things a desktop can right now, but they are quickly moving in that direction (in terms of speed/capacity). When they are and you can dock your phone to a larger screen/keyboard at work and then take it when you are ready to go and access the same apps/data on the go, the traditional desktop PC market for the majority of people will die quickly.
Technologically, consumer electronics in Japan is not as far ahead of western countries as it once was in the 90s. Going into a Japanese electronics store, you will find it does not look that much different from a Best Buy in the US. What does look different? All those "different kind of devices for different purposes" have folded into smartphones.
Technologically, consumer electronics in Japan is not as far ahead of western countries as it once was in the 90s. Going into a Japanese electronics store, you will find it does not look that much different from a Best Buy in the US. What does look different? All those "different kind of devices for different purposes" have folded into smartphones.
> the traditional desktop PC market for the majority of people will die quickly.
Who cares about the traditional market ? The point of the article is that the PC will die. It's simply not going to be the case, even if the PC stops being mainstream - there will still be USES for the PC, even if it's for a minority of people. And it does not look like it, there are still hundreds of millions of PCs sold every year, and they are not replaced as fast as subsidized phones and tablets, therefore it "looks like" the PC is dying, except it isn't.
Who cares about the traditional market ? The point of the article is that the PC will die. It's simply not going to be the case, even if the PC stops being mainstream - there will still be USES for the PC, even if it's for a minority of people. And it does not look like it, there are still hundreds of millions of PCs sold every year, and they are not replaced as fast as subsidized phones and tablets, therefore it "looks like" the PC is dying, except it isn't.
This idea "becomes new" every few years, and yet PC games are predicted to outsell console games by the end of 2014.
What most people misunderstand is that, given the choice, most people would choose a PC for a lot of their computing needs.
The issue is lugging that PC around everywhere they go. In other words, physics doesn't give people that choice, and so other form factors become extremely popular.
But at no point will PC's be replaced by them. It's been predicted before, and they were wrong then too.
What most people misunderstand is that, given the choice, most people would choose a PC for a lot of their computing needs.
The issue is lugging that PC around everywhere they go. In other words, physics doesn't give people that choice, and so other form factors become extremely popular.
But at no point will PC's be replaced by them. It's been predicted before, and they were wrong then too.
in Japan ... you'd be hard pressed to find any young person (maybe not teenager, but at least university students) who does NOT have a laptop
My experience is the complete opposite. My wife's family has one computer in the entire extended family, everyone else uses their phone exclusively and I rarely see people using laptops in cafes, etc. My wife has multiple relatives that she can't even email without using a japanese prepaid phone because Docomo encourages invalid email username construction.
My experience is the complete opposite. My wife's family has one computer in the entire extended family, everyone else uses their phone exclusively and I rarely see people using laptops in cafes, etc. My wife has multiple relatives that she can't even email without using a japanese prepaid phone because Docomo encourages invalid email username construction.
> and I rarely see people using laptops in cafes,
Go to Starbucks. I see people using laptops every time there. And not just old geezers.
Go to Starbucks. I see people using laptops every time there. And not just old geezers.
In the middle of Tokyo I see a lot of laptops in Starbucks but that isn't really the case in most of the cafes I visit elsewhere. Not a great idea to extrapolate from a metropolis of 20 million to an entire country. If laptops are doing so great in Japan why is Sony selling off their VAIO business?
Children and young adults don't have tablets and cell phones because they have limited disposable income.
Kids also don't need appointment books, the ability to read/edit documents from work, and so on.
They also have smaller hands - a cell phone is already big to them. Their eyesight is at the best that it will ever be. I would have been able to use a cell screen to browse the internet at 20; now, not so much.
Kids also don't need appointment books, the ability to read/edit documents from work, and so on.
They also have smaller hands - a cell phone is already big to them. Their eyesight is at the best that it will ever be. I would have been able to use a cell screen to browse the internet at 20; now, not so much.
This isn't an original view, but I suspect that PCs will become specialized devices for particular groups (professional writers / coders / video editors, or those who aspire to do professional work; PC gaming enthusiasts; a couple of others), while most other people doing most other things will migrate to cell- and tablet-like form factors; maybe they'll have a computer around for something but does it matter if the computer is five or even ten years old?
The migration factor would seem to be an important part of Dustin's point—along with the idea that teens and 20-somethings are leading indicators, as they were for social networks, mp3s, etc.
(I'm typing this on a 27" iMac but would broadly define myself as part of the "specialist" group.)
Incidentally, cameras appear to be following a similar trajectory to PCs, with sales falling off in the last two or so years. See e.g. http://www.dslrbodies.com/newsviews/when-will-the-panic-star... or http://www.dslrbodies.com/newsviews/march-2014-nikon-news/ha....
The migration factor would seem to be an important part of Dustin's point—along with the idea that teens and 20-somethings are leading indicators, as they were for social networks, mp3s, etc.
(I'm typing this on a 27" iMac but would broadly define myself as part of the "specialist" group.)
Incidentally, cameras appear to be following a similar trajectory to PCs, with sales falling off in the last two or so years. See e.g. http://www.dslrbodies.com/newsviews/when-will-the-panic-star... or http://www.dslrbodies.com/newsviews/march-2014-nikon-news/ha....
There is, for me, a peculiar connection between cameras and pc computing power (I used to work for muvee technologies). As computing power grows, I've been quite frustrated with how he extra tends to get eaten up by a higher qualiy video format. 320x240 was enough at one point and 300mhz machines could deal with these well. Then came DV at 720x576@30fps, needing faster machines. We have HD today at 1920x1080. Each step has so far been 4x bump in resolution. We're now going to get hit by another 2x bump - 4k video, and then perhaps a bump to the frame rat to 60fps (or at least 48fps).
Today's "normal pc" compute power is inadequate for 4k video ... Unless you plug in a decent gpu and your machine includes a decent bandwidth to that gpu.
Given that parents have always wanted to film thir kids at the highest quality they can afford, where do you thnk this trend might take us industry wise?
Edit: if i cannot type out this post error free, mobiles phons suck as PC replacements ;)
Today's "normal pc" compute power is inadequate for 4k video ... Unless you plug in a decent gpu and your machine includes a decent bandwidth to that gpu.
Given that parents have always wanted to film thir kids at the highest quality they can afford, where do you thnk this trend might take us industry wise?
Edit: if i cannot type out this post error free, mobiles phons suck as PC replacements ;)
> Incidentally, cameras appear to be following a similar trajectory to PCs, with sales falling off in the last two or so years.
Yeah, but just like the PC, phones are never going to replace reflex cameras, for a number of reasons I will not develop here. It's not because a market actor gains or loses that it wipes the entire market - and that was Dustin's entire point.
Yeah, but just like the PC, phones are never going to replace reflex cameras, for a number of reasons I will not develop here. It's not because a market actor gains or loses that it wipes the entire market - and that was Dustin's entire point.
"aspire to do professional work" - any office work really.
I think the future is coming to your office and getting a bigger screen via a wireless connection to your tablet automatically (like Surface Pro with Miracast). You even said "27 iMac" instead of "powerful iMac".
I think the future is coming to your office and getting a bigger screen via a wireless connection to your tablet automatically (like Surface Pro with Miracast). You even said "27 iMac" instead of "powerful iMac".
A lot of the supporting data comes from adults 18-29. I include data from teens 14-20, because I think the habits they are learning will continue as they grow older.
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This is similar what I was going to say: disposable income, behavior; and I was going to add replacement cycle.
> If you want to predict the future, just look at what middle-class American teens are doing.
I know people love to say/write this, but I'm trying to think of a period of time where this has held up within the last century. Technology, especially today, doesn't allow it. Also, teens hop on and off of fads quicker than any age group. Teens and early-20s adults have behaviors that will all change within just a few years, along with the things they deem necessary vs nice-to-have.
That the iPad, or tablet, has plateaued (or even shrinking) may be true, but I don't think the data or reasoning supports it.
> If you want to predict the future, just look at what middle-class American teens are doing.
I know people love to say/write this, but I'm trying to think of a period of time where this has held up within the last century. Technology, especially today, doesn't allow it. Also, teens hop on and off of fads quicker than any age group. Teens and early-20s adults have behaviors that will all change within just a few years, along with the things they deem necessary vs nice-to-have.
That the iPad, or tablet, has plateaued (or even shrinking) may be true, but I don't think the data or reasoning supports it.
I can't program on less than a 30" or so screen. And I need a full size keyboard, too.
I can't imagine trying to write complex code on a phone. Heck, I can't even imagine trying to write an article, or anything much longer than a tweet on those tiny phone screens.
I can't imagine trying to write complex code on a phone. Heck, I can't even imagine trying to write an article, or anything much longer than a tweet on those tiny phone screens.
You could have all that with airplay/chromecast and a bluetooth keyboard/mouse.
Since my large monitor & keyboard are nailed to my desk, having a box under it to drive it is not a burden in any way - and those boxes are cheap.
I would like a PC without fan noise, though.
I bought a Galaxy tablet for reading books, because it is nearly paper-sized, had an HD display, and is completely silent. It's marvelous for that, and I'm very pleased with it. But it's still too small to program on, both the display size and the inadequate storage.
I would like a PC without fan noise, though.
I bought a Galaxy tablet for reading books, because it is nearly paper-sized, had an HD display, and is completely silent. It's marvelous for that, and I'm very pleased with it. But it's still too small to program on, both the display size and the inadequate storage.
> Since my large monitor & keyboard are nailed to my desk, having a box under it to drive it is not a burden in any way - and those boxes are cheap.
That makes sense and I'm in a similar situation right now. However, going forward, monitors and desktop computers will become increasingly redundant with the smart tvs and phones that most consumers will already own.
That makes sense and I'm in a similar situation right now. However, going forward, monitors and desktop computers will become increasingly redundant with the smart tvs and phones that most consumers will already own.
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Yes, but you're not the average internet user. Most people who use the internet use it to consume, not to produce.
I wonder why he just didn't ask a young person?
I did. I asked a 15 year old cousin.
"I use my mobile phone exclusively for email and internet."
why?
"I have privacy on my phone and it's the only thing I can use at school and at home."
Huh. Makes sense.
But when these students get older, and aren't as concerned about privacy from their parents, and aren't restricted from using other devices by school rules, I suspect they will adopt the device appropriate for the task at hand -- just like older folks do now.
Maybe tablets as a separate product are going to be more niche but I personally don't see it. But one thing I'm fairly sure of, as long as people have to type long things, a real keyboard is indispensable. I'm not sure what the 2030 Macbook Air will be, but i feel pretty confident that it (or similar) will be.
I did. I asked a 15 year old cousin.
"I use my mobile phone exclusively for email and internet."
why?
"I have privacy on my phone and it's the only thing I can use at school and at home."
Huh. Makes sense.
But when these students get older, and aren't as concerned about privacy from their parents, and aren't restricted from using other devices by school rules, I suspect they will adopt the device appropriate for the task at hand -- just like older folks do now.
Maybe tablets as a separate product are going to be more niche but I personally don't see it. But one thing I'm fairly sure of, as long as people have to type long things, a real keyboard is indispensable. I'm not sure what the 2030 Macbook Air will be, but i feel pretty confident that it (or similar) will be.
Here is a reasoned counterpoint to the notion that the iPad has maxed out:
http://www.asymco.com/2014/04/30/the-ipad-discontinuity/
I know so many older people who now live entirely on their tablets - heck, in Canada, I've got family who do all their email and browsing on playbooks .
Personally, I could never, ever, live without a Laptop (Not a day goes by where I don't spent at least 15 minutes on Terminal.app) - but, I totally understand how 90% of the population has different "jobs that need to be done" than myself - so there will be some tablet/Smart Phone that will take over those jobs.
The 20-30% of us hackers, knowledge workers, and gamers will keep a vibrant PC / Laptop market going for at least another 5-10 years, until Tablets/Smart Phones get powerful enough to just drive a display technology and get hooked into a keyboard.
That's the day that I carry my entire processing/storage/memory unit in my pocket.
I know so many older people who now live entirely on their tablets - heck, in Canada, I've got family who do all their email and browsing on playbooks .
Personally, I could never, ever, live without a Laptop (Not a day goes by where I don't spent at least 15 minutes on Terminal.app) - but, I totally understand how 90% of the population has different "jobs that need to be done" than myself - so there will be some tablet/Smart Phone that will take over those jobs.
The 20-30% of us hackers, knowledge workers, and gamers will keep a vibrant PC / Laptop market going for at least another 5-10 years, until Tablets/Smart Phones get powerful enough to just drive a display technology and get hooked into a keyboard.
That's the day that I carry my entire processing/storage/memory unit in my pocket.
i think pg already captured this idea when he said that once mobile phones were powerful enough to run an IDE, so you could carry it in your pocket wherever you go, plug into a monitor and keyboard and work - then the PC would be dead.
i disagree that middle-class teens are the harbinger of this future out of enlightenment - more like just managing household expenses and the reality of living at home. write your homework on the shared family PC, and everyone has their own phone.
i disagree that middle-class teens are the harbinger of this future out of enlightenment - more like just managing household expenses and the reality of living at home. write your homework on the shared family PC, and everyone has their own phone.
That high-powered pocket-size device will be nice, but it's existence will mean that I can have a 20x as powerful desktop-sized device. And I'm going to want that for software development even though the pocket-sized device can run an IDE, because my desktop is going to have a much better IDE that does all kinds of code analysis and live testing for me as I work, and it's going to be able to compile my code much faster than the pocket device will.
Today's mobile phones are much more powerful than yesterday's PCs, but they didn't replace yesterday's PCs. We just have much more powerful PCs as well.
Today's mobile phones are much more powerful than yesterday's PCs, but they didn't replace yesterday's PCs. We just have much more powerful PCs as well.
For some very, very, very small percentage of the population, that extra power can be useful - but I strongly suspect that, outside of gamers, that percentage is less than 10%.
For most people, PCs and Laptops became powerful enough about 5 years ago. I am a serious power user, run VMware, Cisco Network Simulators, Multiple Drawing Applications, Aperture, the entire Office Suite, VPNs, plus the normal host of twitter, text editor, skype, google earth apps, iTunes - all simultaneously - and my 2010 MacBook Air is still sufficient . I'm still doing all my Desktop PC work (Mostly Outlook and Visio) on my 2004 Dell Precision 650 (All that I've upgraded is the SSD and Monitor).
The Laptop and PC market is wildly over served today for 90%+ of the population. A MacBook Air is way more powerful than people need in terms of Processor, Wireless, and CPU performance for those people.
Yes - of course you will be able to take advantage of more powerful systems, but if we've already reached the point where I can't, then it won't be too far off before Phones/Tablets will have more than enough processing power for most ordinary people.
For most people, PCs and Laptops became powerful enough about 5 years ago. I am a serious power user, run VMware, Cisco Network Simulators, Multiple Drawing Applications, Aperture, the entire Office Suite, VPNs, plus the normal host of twitter, text editor, skype, google earth apps, iTunes - all simultaneously - and my 2010 MacBook Air is still sufficient . I'm still doing all my Desktop PC work (Mostly Outlook and Visio) on my 2004 Dell Precision 650 (All that I've upgraded is the SSD and Monitor).
The Laptop and PC market is wildly over served today for 90%+ of the population. A MacBook Air is way more powerful than people need in terms of Processor, Wireless, and CPU performance for those people.
Yes - of course you will be able to take advantage of more powerful systems, but if we've already reached the point where I can't, then it won't be too far off before Phones/Tablets will have more than enough processing power for most ordinary people.
"gaming" is a billion dollar industry, calling it a "very very small percentage of the population" may be exaggerating a bit ;)
Oh, absolutely I get that, that's why I wrote:
"For some very, very, very small percentage of the population, that extra power can be useful - but I strongly suspect that, outside of gamers, that percentage is less than 10%. "
I.E. If we eliminate the PC gamers, probably less than 10% of people need the extra power we are getting from PCs. I realize that PC gamers can always, and will always need more power than they will ever, ever get.
"For some very, very, very small percentage of the population, that extra power can be useful - but I strongly suspect that, outside of gamers, that percentage is less than 10%. "
I.E. If we eliminate the PC gamers, probably less than 10% of people need the extra power we are getting from PCs. I realize that PC gamers can always, and will always need more power than they will ever, ever get.
You may want that, but all the evidence from average revenue per unit for PC manufacturers is that the average consumer, on the other hand, are not willing to pay for performance any more:
Bargain basement PC's are fast enough for most users to the point where it is a massive problem for everyone but Apple (who commands a massively higher average price), and this has been the case for years at this point.
Bargain basement PC's are fast enough for most users to the point where it is a massive problem for everyone but Apple (who commands a massively higher average price), and this has been the case for years at this point.
"i think pg already captured this idea when he said that once mobile phones were powerful enough to run an IDE, so you could carry it in your pocket wherever you go, plug into a monitor and keyboard and work - then the PC would be dead."
No, then it becomes a 'PC'.
This topic get's framed around hardware when it's far more nuanced than that.
Workflows & Usage based on age and context of use. There's a strong bell curve correlation between age and content creation.
No, then it becomes a 'PC'.
This topic get's framed around hardware when it's far more nuanced than that.
Workflows & Usage based on age and context of use. There's a strong bell curve correlation between age and content creation.
I think these predictions are way off base. One trap that the author falls into is by measuring time spent using a computing device. The idea being that this is the most important metric, but it's not. Not all computing activities are comparable in importance.
There is an underlying value of the time spent computing, and that in turn affects the need to own different computing devices and so on. Today computing is ubiquitous for some people, but the value people place on the time they use a mobile phone to catch up on facebook or reddit may not be the same as the value they place on the time they use a tablet or a pc to do something more substantive.
Moreover, tablets are still less mature than other computers and don't have the same market penetration so naive comparisons don't necessarily spell universal truths.
I think ultimately the average person will end up using both smartphones, tablets, and keyboarded computers in the future. With varying degrees of use depending on their own habits, hobbies, and jobs. I especially don't think that the tablet is going to go away, it will have its niche and it will be a big one.
Edit: I think a fundamental problem with DCurtis' reasoning is the idea that we are at the end of a massive change in computing, rather than at the beginning of a new revolution in personal computing. I believe that the latter is true, that the changes which will occur over the next 20 years in computing will be more profound and more impactful on daily life around the world than what has occurred over the past 20 or even 30 years. Part of that will involve the penetration of tablet style (or hybrid tablet/laptop) computers into the workplace, something that has not yet happened to a significant degree. Part of that will involve the revolution in education via educational software that will almost certainly occur within the next 20 years, which will likely be most commonly used on tablet form-factor computers, not phones.
There is an underlying value of the time spent computing, and that in turn affects the need to own different computing devices and so on. Today computing is ubiquitous for some people, but the value people place on the time they use a mobile phone to catch up on facebook or reddit may not be the same as the value they place on the time they use a tablet or a pc to do something more substantive.
Moreover, tablets are still less mature than other computers and don't have the same market penetration so naive comparisons don't necessarily spell universal truths.
I think ultimately the average person will end up using both smartphones, tablets, and keyboarded computers in the future. With varying degrees of use depending on their own habits, hobbies, and jobs. I especially don't think that the tablet is going to go away, it will have its niche and it will be a big one.
Edit: I think a fundamental problem with DCurtis' reasoning is the idea that we are at the end of a massive change in computing, rather than at the beginning of a new revolution in personal computing. I believe that the latter is true, that the changes which will occur over the next 20 years in computing will be more profound and more impactful on daily life around the world than what has occurred over the past 20 or even 30 years. Part of that will involve the penetration of tablet style (or hybrid tablet/laptop) computers into the workplace, something that has not yet happened to a significant degree. Part of that will involve the revolution in education via educational software that will almost certainly occur within the next 20 years, which will likely be most commonly used on tablet form-factor computers, not phones.
This seems to completely ignore that fact that everyone can get a subsidised smartphone these days, even teenagers.
Mostly tablets need to be purchased outright, which requires a lot more disposable income.
Mostly tablets need to be purchased outright, which requires a lot more disposable income.
PCs will never die. They are productivity machines and something of that form will always be needed in order for work to be done. Teens don't need to work, they play.
But what I can see is the PC moving to the phone, such that a monitor and workstation accessories can be plugged into the mobile device.
But what I can see is the PC moving to the phone, such that a monitor and workstation accessories can be plugged into the mobile device.
I believe this is what most people who argue that the a mobile device will become peoples primary computer mean.
And you can already do this. Pretty much all Android phones and tablets supports bluetooth or USB keyboards, and many supports wired or wireless HDMI out.
And you can already do this. Pretty much all Android phones and tablets supports bluetooth or USB keyboards, and many supports wired or wireless HDMI out.
Even that is not enough. The raw power advantage of the PC will probably continue for some time. There is no way to cram the amount of CPU/GPU power plus RAM/storage capacity that exists in a PC into a slate style device, whether smartphone or tablet sized. That power may not be useful to a great majority of the population, but it is useful to some. And it will probably be decades before that power differential stops being relevant. Though it's hard to imagine how increases in the power of small form factor, low power devices won't also translate into even greater increases in the power of larger form factor, higher power devices.
I think most people are not reading the article. He is not saying that the tablet form factor is dead, just that in the long run tablets and phones will converge. (So we will be calling things that operate like tablets today phones.)
This will either mean we all start carrying around really large phones, or that technology gets to the point where you can fit an object the size of a phone in your pocket and have an experience like a tablet. (Using some unforseen tech)
IMHO augmented reality converged with VR is the long run future. I have to imagine we are all going to be wearing comfortable opaque goggles in a few years that will project whatever we want wherever we want.
This will either mean we all start carrying around really large phones, or that technology gets to the point where you can fit an object the size of a phone in your pocket and have an experience like a tablet. (Using some unforseen tech)
IMHO augmented reality converged with VR is the long run future. I have to imagine we are all going to be wearing comfortable opaque goggles in a few years that will project whatever we want wherever we want.
Smart phones are booming not so much because they're replacing laptops or desktops but because
(1) Their mobile communication capabilities are essential.
(2) Their nature is to be coupled tightly to an individual rather than be shareable.
(3) Their replacement cycles are so short.
(1) Their mobile communication capabilities are essential.
(2) Their nature is to be coupled tightly to an individual rather than be shareable.
(3) Their replacement cycles are so short.
Also worth noting, most phone companies that I've seen push smart-phones pretty heavily because they want to get you on a data-plan, and really don't have many dumb-phones around. My family switched our cell-phone plan a few years ago, and none of us really care for smart-phones so we didn't want a data-plan and just wanted dumb-phones, and it was surprisingly hard to actually accomplish this. It's not extremely hard, but the 'default' is definitely to just give everybody smart-phones.
Another reason that older people adopt tablets easily: they are a very good match for older eyes. The natural degradation of human vision with age lends itself to larger screens and buttons.
Oddly, even a retina iPod is far more readable to old eyes like mine than the non-retina one. I found this out when I upgraded.
"This is very odd. Why would teens and young adults, who are almost without exception the earliest adopters of new technological trends, use tablets less often than older adults, who are least likely to be early adopters? Compared to most new technologies, the tablet is being adopted backwards!"
Because iPads are used mostly by professionals eg doctors and people who want to read stuff or watch a movie on it.
Because iPads are used mostly by professionals eg doctors and people who want to read stuff or watch a movie on it.
Every time I see a prediction like this, it seems like people are forgetting how much we are diversifying, not unifying, our computers. Almost every home appliance can be bought with a computer in it.
At the moment, most of these appliances are missing a central controller, one big home computer to coordinate all your smart devices, smart walls, etc. Once we move into 8K wall displays in every room, a smartphone will not be able to drive most of what people do with computers. They will need a big home PC to handle their homes, but it will probably not have a desktop interface. Maybe it won't be called a PC, but rather a home server or something like that, but it will be a big bulky box installed in the home for personal computing.
The mobile phone is currently moving to replace the primary interface to the many computers we all use, but it also has wearable candidates to replace it in the near future. However, if you define the PC as a Windows desktop/laptop, I definitely agree with the premise, but let's not forget about all the upcoming power-hungry applications for home computing like AR and VR.
At the moment, most of these appliances are missing a central controller, one big home computer to coordinate all your smart devices, smart walls, etc. Once we move into 8K wall displays in every room, a smartphone will not be able to drive most of what people do with computers. They will need a big home PC to handle their homes, but it will probably not have a desktop interface. Maybe it won't be called a PC, but rather a home server or something like that, but it will be a big bulky box installed in the home for personal computing.
The mobile phone is currently moving to replace the primary interface to the many computers we all use, but it also has wearable candidates to replace it in the near future. However, if you define the PC as a Windows desktop/laptop, I definitely agree with the premise, but let's not forget about all the upcoming power-hungry applications for home computing like AR and VR.
What useful distinction is there between a mobile phone which is hooked up to a physical keyboard plus a 30 inch monitor and a desktop computer? It seems inevitable that smartphones will eventually be powerful enough to "act" as the "computer" in "desktop computer like" setups or as the "computer" in "tablet like" devices but why call those systems "mobile phones"? Isn't it more useful to categorise in terms of human-computer interfaces (physical keyboard + monitor = desktop, physical keyboard attached to screen = laptop, large touch screen = tablet, small touch screen = mobile, etc.)? Or does dcurtis actually predict a future where people want to program without physical keyboards and watch movies on 5 inch screens?
Personally I still haven't found a tablet that fulfill my needs to "create". Tablets are good (maybe even great) as consumption devices. However I have found that the closer a table gets to a laptop (add keyboard and bigger display) the easier it is for me to create content
Your analysis is possibly flawed, right at the beginning.
30+ is not "old". You don't start hitting your stride until your 28/29 plus. Lumping together everyone over the age of 30 is wrong.
Another point, people in 30+ have the income that younger people lack. Why are 15-20 year olds using mainly mobile? Because that's what they can afford or what their parents get them. Desktops, laptops, and tablets are expensive in comparison.
Why do more "old" people use tablets? Because a lot of us have found a tablet is useful in many circumstances where a phone or laptop is not. We also have more spare money, so I can splurge on an iPad every couple years. If I had kids, they wouldn't be getting the newest thing for sure. There's work we can do that doesn't require a full laptop.
30+ is not "old". You don't start hitting your stride until your 28/29 plus. Lumping together everyone over the age of 30 is wrong.
Another point, people in 30+ have the income that younger people lack. Why are 15-20 year olds using mainly mobile? Because that's what they can afford or what their parents get them. Desktops, laptops, and tablets are expensive in comparison.
Why do more "old" people use tablets? Because a lot of us have found a tablet is useful in many circumstances where a phone or laptop is not. We also have more spare money, so I can splurge on an iPad every couple years. If I had kids, they wouldn't be getting the newest thing for sure. There's work we can do that doesn't require a full laptop.
Personally i believe the Phone and the Laptop will sort of merge.
A lot of us use our laptops and PC's to Work and Create, Our Phones to Stay in touch,communicate and Play.
It is not fun/easy writing Python Code on your mobile so why not just plug it into a laptop-like case with a Keyboard and Screen then Plug it out when you are done.
Phones already have the computing power to do this and we already have a couple of OS'es (Ubuntu OS) that work well on both Mobile and Desktop.
I believe this is where we are headed.
Well, here at the trailing edge, the cellphones (many feature) are the main device but lots of love for bigger screens. If given an iPad they use it (a lot), so I would expect the first iPad sitting at $99 bucks with a cell contract will kill off the cellphone in a lot of youngsters with a big second to the phablets. Bonus, once someone figures out a decent dock that we can add a big screen to and leave around.
Its a price thing right now, not an I want thing.
Its a price thing right now, not an I want thing.
It doesn't seem to make sense to group 14-year-olds with 22-year-olds here. One group has to share the family computer, the other doesn't.
The personal computer is not dying. Yes, people aren't buying desktop and laptop computers as much, but there is a very simple explanation people often like to brush off to the side when making wild claims like this. The reason is computing power has reached a point where you don't need to upgrade your computer every year to run the latest games or suite of word processing software. My Core i5 PC which I was running for years before only recently upgrading is still going and can still run everything I throw at it. People just don't need to upgrade as often as they did during the nineties when computing power was increasing basically every year as was storage.
As a developer who can't do his day job without a PC, I couldn't picture using my phone or a tablet to code with or administer servers. Believe me, I've tried using my phone for many aspects of my job and besides being able to maybe restart a server, NOTHING beats a good old fashioned terminal and keyboard. The restrictive nature of applications available for devices like iPhones and iPad's also means there are certain things I cannot do (like transferring large database dumps that are tens of gigabytes to a remote server).
I work for a design-led agency and let me tell you something, you cannot design on a mobile phone or tablet (well tablet you sort of can, but the results aren't that pretty or easy to accomplish). I'm sure some will argue otherwise, but I challenge you to open up a 1gb PSD file on an iPad and see how well you can work with it (switching between layers/groups, text sizes, resizing things). Some devices aren't meant to do everything and people like Dustin have been generalising and proclaiming these new portable touch devices will replace everything, but the reality is they cannot replace everything.
People use different devices for different purposes. I've never seen anyone coding on a train using an iPad or their iPhone before. People seem to use their portable devices for email, gaming, phone calls and social media mostly. How often do you see someone on public transport on Facebook, Twitter or Instagram? A hell of a lot more then you would using said devices for other purposes.
Then there is the issue of battery life. These new phones (especially phablet phones) are lucky to last a day on a full charge with the stock battery because of the constant drain of the screen, GPS and Wifi. You can't rely on a smartphone, not even in 2014 to be reliable. Battery life followed by form factor are the two biggest hurdles and the bigger you go, the less you can call the device a phone or tablet. I can get like 5 hours from my laptop, comparative use on my phone would maybe be half that...
As a developer who can't do his day job without a PC, I couldn't picture using my phone or a tablet to code with or administer servers. Believe me, I've tried using my phone for many aspects of my job and besides being able to maybe restart a server, NOTHING beats a good old fashioned terminal and keyboard. The restrictive nature of applications available for devices like iPhones and iPad's also means there are certain things I cannot do (like transferring large database dumps that are tens of gigabytes to a remote server).
I work for a design-led agency and let me tell you something, you cannot design on a mobile phone or tablet (well tablet you sort of can, but the results aren't that pretty or easy to accomplish). I'm sure some will argue otherwise, but I challenge you to open up a 1gb PSD file on an iPad and see how well you can work with it (switching between layers/groups, text sizes, resizing things). Some devices aren't meant to do everything and people like Dustin have been generalising and proclaiming these new portable touch devices will replace everything, but the reality is they cannot replace everything.
People use different devices for different purposes. I've never seen anyone coding on a train using an iPad or their iPhone before. People seem to use their portable devices for email, gaming, phone calls and social media mostly. How often do you see someone on public transport on Facebook, Twitter or Instagram? A hell of a lot more then you would using said devices for other purposes.
Then there is the issue of battery life. These new phones (especially phablet phones) are lucky to last a day on a full charge with the stock battery because of the constant drain of the screen, GPS and Wifi. You can't rely on a smartphone, not even in 2014 to be reliable. Battery life followed by form factor are the two biggest hurdles and the bigger you go, the less you can call the device a phone or tablet. I can get like 5 hours from my laptop, comparative use on my phone would maybe be half that...
I use a tablet instead of a phone, the screen and battery are significant hooks. It is slightly too large, I'm wondering if we won't all just settle on six inch screens for both soon.
For phones to completely win, we need terminals in offices and libraries that let you type on a full keyboard and use multiple monitors. Maybe you can just dock a phablet to power the dumb HCI? That would be my dream.
For phones to completely win, we need terminals in offices and libraries that let you type on a full keyboard and use multiple monitors. Maybe you can just dock a phablet to power the dumb HCI? That would be my dream.
Do you use your tablet while walking around outside? Many people I see on a typical urban sidewalk are using their phone. Nobody is using a tablet.
Multiple surveys have shown that tablets are used almost entirely at home. People still see them as largely entertainment devices.
Multiple surveys have shown that tablets are used almost entirely at home. People still see them as largely entertainment devices.
> Do you use your tablet while walking around outside?
Yes, absolutely.
I get that I'm an outlier, but I used to have a phone, and my experience has improved on net since I moved up a size category.
I might just be weird, but it's improved in ways that I would imagine would hold universal appeal: longer battery life, easier HCI (easier to type and swipe, easier to see nav, more readable text, better video).
The downsides are that it doesn't play nice with some phone plans, and it's kind of awkward in one hand. Not completely awkward, but probably unreasonable for a lot of smaller handed people (teens?), killing wider adoption. That's why I think six inch phablets might hit the sweet spot.
Yes, absolutely.
I get that I'm an outlier, but I used to have a phone, and my experience has improved on net since I moved up a size category.
I might just be weird, but it's improved in ways that I would imagine would hold universal appeal: longer battery life, easier HCI (easier to type and swipe, easier to see nav, more readable text, better video).
The downsides are that it doesn't play nice with some phone plans, and it's kind of awkward in one hand. Not completely awkward, but probably unreasonable for a lot of smaller handed people (teens?), killing wider adoption. That's why I think six inch phablets might hit the sweet spot.
>I suspect this behavior will continue as these young people grow up
I don't. I spend a lot of my time browsing on a phone. I could probably be counted in that "cell mostly" demographic. You can't get work done on a phone though. When I actually need to get things done for school/work/etc. I'm using a real computer, not a mobile device.
I don't. I spend a lot of my time browsing on a phone. I could probably be counted in that "cell mostly" demographic. You can't get work done on a phone though. When I actually need to get things done for school/work/etc. I'm using a real computer, not a mobile device.
Mobile devices are rapidly becoming "real computers". I have 4 cellphone sized ARM devices in my house that are capable enough to use as desktops. I have wireless keyboards for them. Several devices supports streaming the display.
For many Android phones, you can already use them as desktop replacements of sorts, with HDMI out (including some with "wireless HDMI") and bluetooth keyboards.
For many Android phones, you can already use them as desktop replacements of sorts, with HDMI out (including some with "wireless HDMI") and bluetooth keyboards.
here's a startup/business IT anecdote: in our office we have pretty much at least two of every modern apple device...
mac pro, imac, macbook pro, macbook air, iphone, ipad 1/2/3/air/mini, apple tv, mac mini, airport xt, airport xp, hell even an ipod or two. jeez, it's actually kind of embarrassing now that i see it all typed out.
mac pros and macbook pro/airs get by far the most usage (dev and sales staff, respectively), followed (by a safe margin in terms of clock time) by iphone (everyone, all day long, for short bursts). everything else is highly incidental and we could easily get by without. the ipad (of which we have 3 or 4, i believe) sit pretty much unused. our imacs are kind of dead-ends functionally and the rest... more of a novelty than anything.
i tried to use ipads during meetings and even phone calls but found myself fumbling. completely unnecessary when a macbook air is just as easy to carry around and offers a traditional interface.
mac pro, imac, macbook pro, macbook air, iphone, ipad 1/2/3/air/mini, apple tv, mac mini, airport xt, airport xp, hell even an ipod or two. jeez, it's actually kind of embarrassing now that i see it all typed out.
mac pros and macbook pro/airs get by far the most usage (dev and sales staff, respectively), followed (by a safe margin in terms of clock time) by iphone (everyone, all day long, for short bursts). everything else is highly incidental and we could easily get by without. the ipad (of which we have 3 or 4, i believe) sit pretty much unused. our imacs are kind of dead-ends functionally and the rest... more of a novelty than anything.
i tried to use ipads during meetings and even phone calls but found myself fumbling. completely unnecessary when a macbook air is just as easy to carry around and offers a traditional interface.
There is certainly a convergence point, but when it's $500+ for an iPad... how many teenagers can afford that? The utility of the screen size is secondary when put in those terms. I find it more likely that we're entering a world where we have multiple devices surrounding us.
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The PC will never die because a phone / tablet or even a laptop will never be able to do what a desktop can do. Both technologies are constantly getting more powerful and they will never be equal.
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most children aren't allowed phones in school, let alone tablets.
Phones are easier to hide from teachers than 9" tablets. So it would make sense they would have phones with them all the time and a smaller amount have tablets (that have probably been bought for them, I doubt many could afford both) at home.
Until multitasking on tablets is fixed it will never replace the PC for them. Young people switch tabs and applications like mad!
Until multitasking on tablets is fixed it will never replace the PC for them. Young people switch tabs and applications like mad!
One reason for the apparent drop in mobile Internet usage as Americans grow from teenagers to 20-somethings has to do with work. Compared to high school students, young professionals (and, to a lesser degree, college students) are much more likely to use laptops. Many of them have to use laptops or desktop computers for at least 8 hours a day.
So, the statistics may suggest that mobile web usage drops off in the 20s range, but that may not mean that 20-somethings are any less savy or interested in it.
So, the statistics may suggest that mobile web usage drops off in the 20s range, but that may not mean that 20-somethings are any less savy or interested in it.
Edit: Just noticed a downvote. If anyone disagrees with this observation, I'm interested in hearing your feedback. One of the things I appreciate about HN is that it's one of the few places on the Internet were people with differing opinions can have truly productive and enlightening debates.
I can't even get enough affordable solid state storage in my PC and you are telling me a phone is the answer?
Maybe young people don't need a dumb down interface because they know how to use a computer?
One day the interface will be on our retina. The form factor will no longer be relevant.
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I think cell phones are a fad.
Millenials can't afford to move out from home because they get bamboozled by framily plans and handset discounts that drain their pocketbooks. At 10 a GB, you have to be a wall street or Washington fat cat to watch Netflix.
I can't wait until tablets get Blu ray players cause the rent on LTE is too damn high and all the kids think it is retro cool like 8 track tapes.
Millenials can't afford to move out from home because they get bamboozled by framily plans and handset discounts that drain their pocketbooks. At 10 a GB, you have to be a wall street or Washington fat cat to watch Netflix.
I can't wait until tablets get Blu ray players cause the rent on LTE is too damn high and all the kids think it is retro cool like 8 track tapes.
Don't think phones are so much a fad as they are hopefully a dead end.
I would prefer if telecoms died a horrible death so that we could just use the infinitely better infrastructure for moving information, AKA the internet. They only stand to benefit by holding back the internet with bandwidth caps to promote their crappier SMS tech.
That way instead of this marketing abomination called "Smartphones" (Phone/PC hybrid failure mishmash) to using agnostic modular mobile PCs (not laptops) without the GPS tracker and the cellular chipset (both being optional, the magic of modularity). To have a hub that would connect to the mPC, interfacing with all USB/HDMI/Audio devices. Not everyone likes current wireless devices. Adding the ability to install whatever OS you want with an actual friendly & helpful bootloader.
A man can dream...
I would prefer if telecoms died a horrible death so that we could just use the infinitely better infrastructure for moving information, AKA the internet. They only stand to benefit by holding back the internet with bandwidth caps to promote their crappier SMS tech.
That way instead of this marketing abomination called "Smartphones" (Phone/PC hybrid failure mishmash) to using agnostic modular mobile PCs (not laptops) without the GPS tracker and the cellular chipset (both being optional, the magic of modularity). To have a hub that would connect to the mPC, interfacing with all USB/HDMI/Audio devices. Not everyone likes current wireless devices. Adding the ability to install whatever OS you want with an actual friendly & helpful bootloader.
A man can dream...
I honestly hope so. Not because I refuse to believe the 21st century exists or because - well, not entirely because they extend the NSA's reach so much, but just because they sound so earthshatteringly bad.
The phone network isn't supposed to sound like that. Compare AMR, EVRC-B, and mu-law side by side sometime.
That being said, the PC has a level of flexibility that mobile devices really can't touch. If the PC really is dying, then I think it's a failure or a lack of interest from consumers to take full advantage of their capabilities.
The phone network isn't supposed to sound like that. Compare AMR, EVRC-B, and mu-law side by side sometime.
That being said, the PC has a level of flexibility that mobile devices really can't touch. If the PC really is dying, then I think it's a failure or a lack of interest from consumers to take full advantage of their capabilities.
Haha. D Curtis and his predictions, always very funny. Japan is where you should look at. Japan's penetration of the mobile phone is close to 100% since the late 90s, and Japanese could already do everything they wanted using ONLY their mobile phone even before the iPhone came out.
Yet the PC did not die. It's still very much alive even in Japan, because your mobile phone still won't replace every of its uses, and you'd be hard pressed to find any young person (maybe not teenager, but at least university students) who does NOT have a laptop.
PCs are not going to die anytime soon, as I said before so many times you are just going at a more fragmented market down the road, with people using different kind of devices for different purposes. And OMG, let's stop relying on what 15 years old kids do to predict the future. My former 15 yo self had none of the needs and uses as my present self, so of course you'll tend to go to different devices as you age. There's no silver bullet for every use out there.