I mean I also hear the same argument all the time about the "human touch" and interpersonal abilities etc. Which is apparently why managers and sales are safe from AI.
But the more I see LLMs the more I realise that if it is good at one thing it is convincing other people and manipulating them. There have been multiple studies on this.
People seem to have a innate prejudice and against nerds and programmers - coupled with envy at the high salaries - which is why they seem to have latched on to this idea it is mainly to replace them (and maybe data input people) as 'routine cognitive work' - but this slightly political obsession with a certain class of worker seems to be ignoring many of the things AI is actually good at.
The reason management thinks coding is the bottleneck is because they don't understand the first thing abiut code and neither have the ability or temprament to. Their whole professional career is about plausibly convincing other people through jargon, manipulation and popularity contests, which generally oprn up doors, solve problems and provoke seal like clapping from all involved. The idea that the core problem in many systems and software is due to their constitutonal inability to think rigorously to define requirements logically has never crossed their mind: it must be the magic spells those losers we bullied at school use and we are now tragically dependent on.
> However, I think this pipeline has been taking a hit for a while already because juniors as a whole have been devaluing themselves
I have seen the standards for junior devs in free fall for a few years as they hired tons of bootcamp fodder over the last few years. I have lost count of the number of whinging junior devs who think SQL or regex is 'too hard' for their poor little brains. No wonder they are being replaced by a probabilistic magician's hat.