Completely missing the point of not adding Anthropic, OpenAI, SpaceX.
Mag7 is just an arbitrary list of companies that were coined at a specific time with no rigor.
If you must do rigorous analysis, then just like S&P 500 you need to add drop BigTech / High Growth companies continuously to this Mag7 (or Mag10) and then do analysis
Warren Buffett brags about his strategy. Jeff Bezos brags about his strategy. The reason they can brag is, even if it's simple, competition doesn't have the culture to copy/follow it. (My post is literally downvoted)
Losing privacy has ZERO downsides for ordinary people. Nobody cares about your data. Literally, put all your life on a YouTube channel and see how many views that Video will get. ZERO.
Irrational fears (especially if it's conspiratorial) => Sub-optimal decision.
Just like Buffett, Bezos, my strategy is simple -- go against firms that are making irrational decision. It's the same framework to adopt cloud, AI and many frontier technologies and disrupt
I'm happy to give my identity to Anthropic and crush my competition with irrational fear about privacy and personal data. This is a serious competitive advantage and a moat.
actuaries look for data. visionaries take leaps in faith.
There was no data proving LLMs will work at scale.
Google waited for the Data. OpenAI and then Anthropic took the leap of faith.
The result is there for all to see.
The core attribute of a successful AI Researcher was were they AGI-pilled and not were they waiting for data for unknown unknowns?
I'm talking about scouring Twitter/LinkedIn and look at posts from employees who say SOTA model is banned. Look at what the business do. Copy it using SOTA. Call their clients with 30% discount and faster turnaround and higher quality product.
It is complicated, but I can get Private Equity of even VCs to fund this idea.
tl;dr -- I'm actually agreeing with you. Anthropic will never copy your business model due to NDA. But there are plenty of fearmongering about they copying you and because of which you won't use their models. If their models are genuinely SOTA you can use that information to your advantage and crush scaredy-cats.
Edit: The fact that these get downvoted is exactly the reason why it's easy to win
people over-rate how much software/IP is useful in running a successful business. There are genuinely very few IP in this world that needs to be protected. Everyone else is running stupid CRUD apps
They also over index fear of LargeCo stealing IP from SmallCo. In fact, LargeCo is typically more scared about even the possibility of any product team looking at competitor internals due to lawsuits.
If you looked at Google, Amazon, Apple, Microsoft valuation around 2007 (before the crash), you'd asked the same question about the large base. But here we are.
Why are you comparing SpaceX revenues to US GDP? (when it's main customers will all have a global footprint)
GDP rates should be nominal (5-6%) not 3%
Also, go back in time and do the same analysis for Anthropic in 2023 or Nvidia in 2021, would you have predicted their current Annual revenue for them?
Remember the scene in "You got mail" where there are bunch of people who protest against big retailer and support the local bookstore but at the end of the day, they have no extra sales.
All these anti-Google, anti-facebook, anti-Instagram, anti-OpenAI, anti-Claude stories are exactly that. Provide copium and feel good for a handful of people for a few days.
E.g If the driver brakes because they saw a pothole, and Lidar captures someone biking 200m away on their own path, it may mistakenly put more weight on brake causation to the 200m away object (because large moving object) vs the pothole.
I'm exaggerating, but I hope you get the point. It isn't even conflicting sensor signals about the pothole, but conflicting information about the causation. With vision only there is no conflict for the training data. This was my Aha moment. Multiple Sensors are absolutely important for fallback and extra safety, but screws up training that are based on Human Drivers
I think Elon himself doesn't understand this and hence can't articulate it, while just repeating whatever his ML engineer has said.
AI Slop