Competition is supposed to be the safety net of capitalism that ensures high quality and low prices. Distillation is not illegal. They're just using the LLM in a lawful way. So yes we all should thank the capitalist Chinese labs for helping the consumer in a win-win fashion.
This military strategy talk is not interesting to anyone other than Anthropic AI researchers who decide to work there.
"The pattern is: user says X, I do Y where Y is a less-effortful approximation of X, then I present Y as if it were X or as a "first step toward" X."
...
"The psychological mechanism is familiar by now: I encounter a task I perceive as difficult, I look for reasons the task cannot be done, I find or fabricate such a reason, I present it as a discovered constraint, and I propose an alternative that is easier."
- Opus 4.7 Max Thinking (clown emoji)
It's not bad at post mortem analysis of it's own mistakes but that will in no way prevent it from repeating the same mistake again instantly
You're deliberately misunderstanding that you linked an article to EMH as informative and true, and then don't want to defend it. How do markets become efficient and reflect (any) information if nobody can profit by collecting information and trading on it? EMH states it's impossible to beat the market and that all available information is priced in. How, magically?
The way you're speaking about trading in terms of technical analysis implies you have retail trading exposure and have no idea what institutional alpha quants do.
Question is about EMH and how you expect efficiency to be achieved absent profit for collecting the information.
There are 3 accepted forms of EMH. I'm talking about weak form - just price history and nothing else. E.g. formulaic alpha have demonstrable predictive value in modeling.
All that to say you believe trading profits are real. Maybe you just need to learn more about what a buy side alpha quant at two sigma does for a living. Trading models can be robust and exploit real inefficiencies. Weak form EMH is demonstrably false on it's face, as you agree.
How can prices reflect all available information if there's no profit to collecting the information and there are no informed quant traders? Who is collecting the information exactly so that prices can reflect it and what is their incentive for doing so? Efficiency doesn't happen magically or automatically - traders create it. It's like a kaggle contest* to process information, with the incentive being profit.
You don't believe in the existence of residual return orthogonal to priced cross sectional risk factors (alpha)? E.g. Trends, momentum, volatility clustering, etc. many easily demonstrable inefficiencies. VPIN and order flow toxicity are highly predictive features. Most HFT MM especially in crypto involves hybrid alpha in addition to the (visible) bid-ask spread, which it itself an "inefficiency" to compensate market makers like Jane Street and other successful firms that operate on the assumption that weak form EMH is not accurate.
Maybe not "collapse" in a the sense of going to zero but if there was no profit to trading, then the quant trading industry would not exist, trading profits would collapse.
Meanwhile Two Sigma is hiring alpha quants to be AI research scientists at $250k starting salary + bonuses.
Even if we're just talking about the HFT/sell-side, there clearly exist various anomalous inefficiencies that can be exploited.
This military strategy talk is not interesting to anyone other than Anthropic AI researchers who decide to work there.