"It seems more likely..." "It might not happen that way..." "someone does need to check..." "seems entirely possible..." "I'd want more like 5 years to be confident..."
Lot of different ways to say you don't know anything at all. This isn't a new market. This isn't the first time laws have changed in this way. This isn't the first time they've had this effect. We already know all of this. You're just waffling and enjoying the sound of your own voice.
> Whether or not the SovCit practitioners understand that's what's happening is anyone's guess.
Probably more of them don't understand. I am very unfortunate to have one in my extended family, and they have fully lost their grip on reality and basic cause-and-effect. They skate by most of the time, which reinforces their beliefs, and then once the pile gets large enough, the whole thing collapses on them, and then cycle starts over.
You tax the everloving hell out of the rich, so they can't just buy whatever policy or judiciary outcome they want or build mega "just in case, i promise uwu" bunkers.
The intuition is that they are not truly independent statistical events. Each trial reveals more information about the underlying "quality" of the resume (for passing this trial, not necessarily real world "quality" of the candidate). We are not rolling dice where each toss is fundamentally unrelated to prior tosses.
> But I doubt the impacts of rent control would appear in the market this quickly, it'd take years for the market signals to be measurable.
Hard disagree. Rational investors have no problem whatsoever projecting the impact to future cash flows and adjusting the amount they're willing to pay now. That's like saying the stock market wouldn't respond quickly to changes in next year's tax law.
Yet another moment where Strangers in Their Own Land[0] is prescient.
From an interview[1] given by the author:
"I think the next most important reason they distrusted the federal government is their experience with protective agencies in the state of Louisiana, and they thought, “Gosh, these are a lot of people we pay taxes to but they don't really protect us.” And they’re right, because Louisiana is an oil state - that was a big discovery for me - and it outsources, in a way, the moral dirty work to the state. So, the state actually pretends to protect the citizenry from hazardous waste and pollution of air and water and ground, but it doesn't actually protect it very much. It gives out permits, as one Tea Party person said "like candy." And so, they felt the federal government is just a bigger, badder version of a state government which isn't protecting us. So, they'd had bad experience. They’d been burned, and I think that's the second kind of source of resistance to the government. But the third is that they saw the government as an instrument of what I'll call “the line cutters.”"
This has been the historical cycle for as long as we have records of human history. Power begets power and greed. Eventually either everyone else reaches a breaking point and "eat the rich", or an external group takes advantage and eats everyone. Then we try again.
This is the laziest, most egregious "WeLl AkShUaLlY!!!" comment I've seen in a little while. Like, really embarrassing.
> According to the regulator for Ontario doctors, Jamal initially tried to place all the blame on her innocent research associate, almost ruining her career. She then tried to discredit her colleagues, claiming they had ulterior motives for questioning her results.
> When that didn’t work, they found Jamal tried to cover up her fraud: She illegally accessed patient records to destroy and change files, disposed of an old computer so investigators couldn’t examine it and even went into the Canadian Blood Services facility and changed freezer temperatures to damage blood and urine samples to mask her deception.
> And in March 2018, after admitting her misconduct before a disciplinary committee of the College of Physicians and Surgeons, Jamal was stripped of her medical license.
This is exactly the main lesson of Finite and Infinite Games. There are finite games, in which the goal is to win, and there are infinite games, in which the goal is to continue playing the game. Using this framing, one can account for quite a large amount of long-term, large-scale problems as breakdowns wherein some participants choose to play formerly infinite games as finite ones, thus crushing their competition but destroying the game itself.
Lot of different ways to say you don't know anything at all. This isn't a new market. This isn't the first time laws have changed in this way. This isn't the first time they've had this effect. We already know all of this. You're just waffling and enjoying the sound of your own voice.