China has ALREADY transitioned from an "aging society" (7% of the population over 65) to an "aged society" (14% over 65).
There are roughly five working-age adults to support every retiree today. This is going to crater. United Nations projections show that by 2050, that ratio will more than double, climbing past 50%. At that point, China will have fewer than two working-age adults for every retiree. The west grew rich before growing old. China, Vietnam, Brazil are aging as middle income countries.
The one child policy was like doing speed, it temporarily freed up massive amounts of capital and labor. But China's work force peaked over a decade ago. The bill is now due, and all the those "single children" know that they are expected to support 2 parents and 4 grandparents.
Aside from the dubious wisdom of similar interventions, cruelly forcing abortions was a lot easier policy to enforce then it would be to try to shove pro-natalist policies on people increasingly overburdened with caregiving for elders because of earlier interventions.
This is fundamentally a failure of political leadership. You don't try to achieve a goal when you don't have the military means to achieve at a cost you are willing to bear.
There are endless numbers of military objectives that the US military that could have been sent on where they would have had no chance to succeed. That they generally weren't is a function other administrations, however bad, not being so embarrassingly incompetent as this.
There's probably at 10-15% percent chance of a war between the US and China over the next 10 years. Maybe better than even chance of a militarized crisis that might have led to war, but somehow de-escalates.
Regardless of how sad late stage capitalism makes you, or how outrageous one claims to find "hypocrisy", any national security argument about limiting Chinese AI capability stands on it's own, at least for nations likely to be drawn into a war.
Also, all the local model enthusiasts who assume Chinese firms are going be allowed to endlessly release models if they have disruptive potential attributed to Mythos are probably in for a rude awakening. Just because the PRC is content about what has happened in the past doesn't mean that they would tolerate an open model that could be truly destabilizing.
The essay lays out a wide range of reasons why normal people reasonably fear that their OWN lives are going to get worse, but your assumption is that what they really care about is the lives of artists, despite the fact that you admit that they understand they have always lived in a world where nearly all artists get very little back compared to their efforts?
That seems more likely your own sentiments, rather than an plausible explanation as to why most people have feelings on this issue.
I'm not saying that this isn't the main reason for some people (for example artists fearful about the technology) or that it doesn't come up in conversation in some niches--young educated people from the West who are terminally online.
But is it really likely to be a true root cause of broad concern across society?
Somehow we'll all have to endure a world where you don't post your amateur photos online because you are "troubled" that you might not be able to shake down a personal stylist for incidental use on their blog.
Even if it could, it probably ought not makes this precise episode, because the technological, philosophical and social context is remarkably different.
A similar episode, actually informed by what we know or can forsee about AI and LLMs, and addressing our hopes and fears about what they mean would be interesting though.
What does this random sentiment have to do with the article, which is about him using a particular tool for storyboarding, which is a process of communicating a vision to a range of human contributors?
Given that, according to the article, he's just using it for storyboarding, in attempt to better communicate a vision to a range of human contributors, it's really unclear how this decision will "age badly." either this is a stronger way to create storyboards or it isn't.
Presumably he has the experience to evaluate if this is likely to actually help or not. Or at least if it is worth exploring.
It is rather unclear why you believe he is likely wrong, aside from conjuring up rather ageist speculations about his motives.
I mean, between SynthID and C2PA don't you already have labels and watermarks that covering a lot of major players like Google, Adobe, ElevenLabs, NIVIDEA? No real concern about false negatives there.
As for false positive, the most straightforward path seems to be to let stuff slide unless you are really sure. Maybe that slightly rewards players like Kling because they keep the invisible watermarks for their own use, and that of the CCP,but not third parties. NBD.
It's not like catching everything is that important. YouTube isn't claiming this is perfect. And I don't know that anyone need this to be perfect. It's not like even the best photorealistic video creation tools don't have plenty of tells anyway.
This doesn't seem like ZeroGPT at all. Having a flag or not having flag on a YouTube short is low stakes. Its not like it's being sold as a solution for something high stakes like academic grading.
Having the reporting from the local paper amplified outside the immediate community strengthens the signal, and supports the general norm of holding officials accountable.
"No man is an island entire of itself; every man
is a piece of the continent, a part of the main"
The MP3 spec was defined a decade before we had iPods. Spreadsheets took a decade to become indispensable to businesses.
Clifford Stoll had used the internet for two decades before writting his infamous 1995 essay in Time saying the internet was overhyped, and "normal" people would never e-mail because they can just fax.
CRISPR was first observed in 1987, and the gene-editing breakthrough came in 2012.
It's really, really unclear why you think LLMs would have faster adoption, when they are already that being adopted faster that anything other tech, ever.
Do you honestly know of no non-technical person who use LLMs? Because an absurd number of people report on surveys that they use it every week.
LLM apps are regularly the top downloads on the iPhone.
In the absence of any evidence, it is really unclear why anyone needs to catastrophize about generations of harms.
Is there any reason to believe that "social media existing" is a worse and more enduring harm than tens of millions of people dying in the Second World War, the trauma of the survivors, the vast destruction of infrastructure,or the start of the risk of nuclear war?
Yet the post war baby boom seems to have led a remarkably fortunate life, overall.
It literally doesn't matter why search revenue is growing. What is observably true is that it is that it is growing, as has it has been, throughout the LLM era.
Absent additional information, no one else can identify the false assumption underlies a strong belief that this should not be case. But something is flying in the face of the facts, and has been for a while. So, yeah, might want to take a look at those priors.
Oh, sure, putting a million or more Uyghurs in internment camps, sterilizing people, and trying to systematically erase a culture and a religion is "just as repressive" as the what is happening in Europe, as long you one is willing to ignore nearly everything relevant about the scale, recourse, and consequence of the PRCs atrocities.
Also, reducing Germany’s complex, decade-long process of grappling with the Holocaust as "self-shame" is... a choice.
What precisely are you doing other than posting stuff that pretends that a party in minority in both houses of Congress could actually stop a president, unless some politicians in the majority chose to join them.
And, as underwhelming as the press are, the facts are that surveys show that American's broadly disapprove of the war. Presumably because of what they have learned about it from the press and the opposition.
The people who are responsible are the people in power and their remaining supporters. Aided, arguably, by people who espouse cynical, self-soothing complaints that ignore what most people learn about civics in middle school.
I guess we'll see how Meta did this time.