The dead comment is unfortunately correct, there will probably be no herd immunity with these vaccines. That's what I hear from every virologist/epidemiologist lately anyways, and the real world data with highly vaccinated countries having record surges appears to confirm it.
I agree that it would be a much stronger argument. However, I also find it cruel to force people into an injection that they do not want, and would probably still oppose a universal vaccine mandate for that reason. I'd be okay with a mandate that allows people who really don't want the vaccine to opt out. I'd even be okay with that for the COVID vaccines if it wasn't for the 2G stuff and the awful rhetoric against unvaccinated people that preceded it. Enacting the mandate now makes the whole thing feel too much like "we'll get you somehow". Like I said, I find it cruel. It's not my idea of a humane society.
Values such as politicians not insulting a group of people on television, not taking their rights away because they might potentially get sick eventually, generally not judging before proven guilty, not forcing someone to put something in their body that they absolutely do not want, not punishing one person for another person's crime. Last one is what they're doing to you if you feel like unvaccinated people are holding you hostage.
Lockdowns end when we stop enacting them, there is no reason (except governmental screw up) to insist that people who chose to take the risk must not get sick under any circumstances, or to assume that everyone must be in lockdown until every last soul is jabbed and boostered whether they want to or not.
Yeah, it's possible. I tried to word it carefully. There seems to be a trend in Bavaria though, Saxony maybe, but it's too soon to tell. Those two were the first to be hit by the current wave, and some areas of Bavaria had the highest incidence for a decent while I believe, so that might be an indicator of having reached the peak at least in some parts of the country. But you are correct, it's absolutely not clear yet, and could be due to lack of testing capacity.
... yeah, okay, I disagree with everything. I don't think it's acceptable for a government to insult its citizens, and I do think boundaries should be respected.
Nothing more to say, our worldviews are too far apart.
No, it's not the goal. The goal is also not to split society in two and create a group that'll hate everyone forever, just because our leaders can't own up to their mistakes. The goal is to get through the pandemic best we can, and keeping societal values and principals intact should be an important part of that.
Fair enough, thanks for the info, I'll check it out. But let it be 2594 then, that is still too many given that we should have increased it by any means possible before starting to publically insult 20% of the population. I'm not assuming a deliberate reduction, I am assuming negligence.
Growth isn't exponential forever, cases appear to be going down again in Germany already. Delta waves seem to be only about 8 weeks long (check data from different countries, or here: https://www.nytimes.com/2021/09/01/briefing/delta-peak-covid...), so two extra weeks would help a lot.
I agree that vaccines are part of the solution. I disagree that stripping citizens of their rights and insulting them on TV is part of literally any solution for anything. If a government feels the urge to do that, it should look for alternatives instead. Maintaining ICU capacity from one year before (decreased by 4000 in 2021, see: https://www.intensivregister.de/#/aktuelle-lage/zeitreihenht... - "Gesamtzahl gemeldeter Intensivbetten"), is the lowest-hanging fruit, I'm sure there are additional alternatives that I'm not qualified to comment on.
Edit: It was pointed out to me that the DIVI numbers have some complexity that I did not account for. So grain of salt on the actual ICU number, but I've not yet seen anyone deny the trend. Here's a fact check that confirms that beds were lost: https://correctiv.org/faktencheck/2021/11/17/divi-praesident...
In three months, the booster efficiency might start waning again, we don't know that yet. These vaccines so far aren't looking like they are the solution to the pandemic either, better vaccines or better treatment might be. I'm not saying it doesn't make sense to get vaccinated if you want to help with the situation, but I do find the way our politicians deflect blame and openly insult a not so small segment of the population completely distasteful. They shouldn't be surprised if the people they're insulting are not willing to help anymore, now or in the future.
A strategy that would make sense would include BOTH vaccination and ICU capacity, one of which could have been started in March 2020, and it would have put us in a much better position today. Letting capacity decrease while waiting for vaccines that may or may not end the pandemic is negligent. Not getting vaccinated may be seen by some as negligent also, but different standards apply for governments and citizens.
The pandemic comes in waves, we do not need to plan for endless exponential growth. A few weeks of extra capacity would make the whole thing much easier to handle, given that we might be already at the peak and cases seem to be going down again[0]. The RKI weekly report[1] currently lists 1700 ICU cases, a month ago it was 1100[2]. So the 4000 beds we lost throughout the year[3] could have made a big difference.
Thanks, that was an interesting video. I had to rely on auto-translated subtitles but from the little Dutch I can understand, it seems like they got the gist across.
Yeah, Germany has a ton of ICU beds in comparison, and yet, we're struggling exactly the same as any other country. I find it strange, too. In early 2020 I expected we'd see big differences between different countries based on ICU capacity, but we saw the same story everywhere (regional overload around the peak of a wave), with a few minor differences (whether some patients are transferred within the country or to other countries). Perhaps countries have different standards for when they put patients in ICU's, allowing hospitals (and governments) to always operate close to capacity? Would be one explanation, but I really don't know.
High total number notwithstanding though, our ICU capacity actually decreased during the pandemic, see:
The graph under "Gesamtzahl gemeldeter Intensivbetten" shows total capacity (light blue) + emergency reserve (green), dark blue is occupied beds. There was a pretty sharp drop-off in the total capacity a year ago, and a slower decrease all throughout 2021. Apparently, that's mostly due to nurses quitting in droves since the pandemic made their already bad working conditions even worse.
Our politicians didn't lift a finger to prevent or revert this, and now they're blaming a minority for this massive, massive failure. Just makes me really angry, I'll take downvotes for that if I have to :)
What we're seeing here is one of the wealthiest countries in the world with a population of > 80M people crumbling over a few thousand ICU patients because of long-standing issues that were never addressed.
The staffing problems in hospitals (and nursing homes) have existed much longer than Covid. I heard a lot about them myself when I did my FSJ (volunteer work) back in 2004, and it's only gotten worse since then. Our government is in full CYA mode, and doing everything they can to blame a scapegoat for problems they themselves have willingly created over decades. It's despicable, and nobody should support it.
FSJ is a year-long volunteer program for young people typically organized and funded by NGOs like the Red Cross and similar. I worked with small children, plenty of the other volunteers I met regularly worked in hospitals and nursing homes. They all talked at length about how atrocious the working conditions were and how they were asked to do things they weren't legally allowed to (e.g. taking blood, handing out medication) because the staff shortages were severe enough that people didn't have enough time to adhere to very reasonable safety rules anymore. That was 17 years ago.
This is a well known, widely publicized[0] and not at all new problem, and the unvaccinated are not to blame for it. Let me repeat, we're talking about one of the wealthiest countries in the world with a population of 83M people crumbling over a few thousand ICU patients.
I agree with you on everything, except 94% is out of date. 35% of ICU patients are now vaccinated, 46% in the 60+ age group. And the percentage keeps rising, especially in the most vulnerable group > 60.
Check out their weekly reports, the relevant tables are usually around page 21 or 22. In the most recent one, it's on page 24.
There are currently no lockdowns, but we had an eight-month long one last winter and plenty of people are afraid of having it repeated.
Indoor mask mandates yes, I think there's only one state that lifted it, but could be one or two more, I'm not sure.
Vaccine isn't mandated yet, we currently have the same system as France where you need to show proof of vaccine, recovery or negative test to enter restaurants, bars, clubs, cinemas, gyms, etc. Tests are free as of now, but will have to be paid out of pocket starting on Oct 11. There's a lot of talk about dropping the test option, i.e. make the current system a vaccine/recovered only one, so basically vaccine passports. Many people expect this to happen (or a vaccine mandate) after the election. Some states have implemented a system where venues can choose whether or not they allow guests with negative tests, and if they opt for vaxxed and recovered only, the remaining restrictions (masks and distancing mainly) are lifted for the venue. This regulation is currently in effect in five or six states I believe, and others might follow.
I agree that it would be a much stronger argument. However, I also find it cruel to force people into an injection that they do not want, and would probably still oppose a universal vaccine mandate for that reason. I'd be okay with a mandate that allows people who really don't want the vaccine to opt out. I'd even be okay with that for the COVID vaccines if it wasn't for the 2G stuff and the awful rhetoric against unvaccinated people that preceded it. Enacting the mandate now makes the whole thing feel too much like "we'll get you somehow". Like I said, I find it cruel. It's not my idea of a humane society.