At this point it's pretty obvious that the easy scaling gains have been made already and AI labs are scrounging for tricks to milk out extra performance from their huge matrix product blobs:
-Reasoning, which is just very long inference coupled with RL
-Tool use aka an LLM with glue code to call programs based on its output
-"Agents" aka LLMs with tools in a loop
Those are pretty neat tricks, and not at all trivial to get actionable results from (from an engineering point of view), mind you. But the days of the qualitative intelligence leaps from GPT-2 to 3, or 3 to 4, are over. Sure, benchmarks do get saturated, but at incredible cost and forcing AI researchers to make up new "dimensions of scaling" as the ones they were previously banking on stalled. And meanwhile it's all your basic next token prediction blob running it all, just with a few optimizing tricks.
My hunch is that there won't be a wondorous life turning AGI (poorly defined anyway), just consolidating existing gains (distillation, small language models, MoE, quality datasets, etc.) and finding new dimensions and sources of data (biological data and 'sense-data' for robotics come to mind).
-Reasoning, which is just very long inference coupled with RL
-Tool use aka an LLM with glue code to call programs based on its output
-"Agents" aka LLMs with tools in a loop
Those are pretty neat tricks, and not at all trivial to get actionable results from (from an engineering point of view), mind you. But the days of the qualitative intelligence leaps from GPT-2 to 3, or 3 to 4, are over. Sure, benchmarks do get saturated, but at incredible cost and forcing AI researchers to make up new "dimensions of scaling" as the ones they were previously banking on stalled. And meanwhile it's all your basic next token prediction blob running it all, just with a few optimizing tricks.
My hunch is that there won't be a wondorous life turning AGI (poorly defined anyway), just consolidating existing gains (distillation, small language models, MoE, quality datasets, etc.) and finding new dimensions and sources of data (biological data and 'sense-data' for robotics come to mind).