Why there's no dominant AI app store yet: The hardware platform thesis
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I have been consistently bad at predicting things related to AI, but I never get the insistence that a personal assistant would be that valuable?
I honestly don't think it would save me that much time and for things an assistant would plausibly do (making purchases, planning vacations, responding to emails) I actually enjoy doing.
I honestly don't think it would save me that much time and for things an assistant would plausibly do (making purchases, planning vacations, responding to emails) I actually enjoy doing.
iPhone (2007): Touch interface, GPS, camera, accelerometer → Instagram, Uber, Angry Birds
Steam (2004): Powerful PCs with broadband → complex multiplayer games
Gaming consoles: Custom chips → exclusive AAA games that drove platform adoption
VR headsets: Spatial tracking → immersive experiences impossible on phones
Smart TVs: Living room + remote → streaming apps optimized for 10-foot UI
Current AI "apps" are mostly glorified chat interfaces because they're constrained by cloud API limitations. You get text-in, text-out because that's what works over HTTP requests.
Companies are already recognizing this constraint:
Apple: New Macs ship with 16GB+ RAM standard, M-series chips with NPUs, explicit "AI PC" positioning
OpenAI: Just acquired io ($6.5B) - Jony Ive's AI hardware startup - the largest "acquihire" ever
Microsoft: Heavy investment in "AI PCs" with dedicated NPU requirements
Google: Pushing Gemini Nano for on-device processing
NVIDIA: Massive push into edge AI chips (Jetson, etc.)
But nobody has executed the full platform play yet: Hardware + killer first-party apps + developer ecosystem.
The pattern suggests AI needs local processing hardware to unlock the next generation of startups:
Real-time multimodal experiences (voice + vision + context)
Privacy-preserving personal AI that learns from your data
Instant response times (not 200ms+ cloud round trips)
Rich interactive experiences beyond conversation
Counterarguments:
"Web apps don't need special hardware" → But the most successful app stores do have hardware differentiation
"Current AI apps are making billions" → From early adopters; mass market adoption requires different UX
"Edge AI chips are shipping" → In laptops/enterprise, but no consumer platform has nailed the ecosystem play
The opportunity: The first startups/companies to ship consumer AI hardware with compelling pre-installed experiences, then open to developers.
Think: What would iPhone's app store have looked like if iOS shipped with only Safari?
Hardware investments suggest this isn't profound. The question is who executes the hardware strategy best.