Schiendelman

gisterendiscuss

It worked out fine for Kent State. None of those National Guard troops were even tried, IIRC.

That's the problem - we haven't really enforced consequences for abuse of power.

Schiendelman

gisterendiscuss

See their reply that came two minutes before yours. ;)

Schiendelman

gisterendiscuss

I'd be happy to help you! I'm working on a game myself.

My first piece of advice is: Pick one mechanic or idea, and ship it all the way to a player (a friend) to see if it's legible or fun.

Schiendelman

gisterendiscuss

The people touting LLMs or the people complaining about LLMs? :)

Schiendelman

gisterendiscuss

You've replied to me before - I really wish you would engage positively.

Schiendelman

gisterendiscuss

You're making a bit of a category error there - the "everyone" is different after LLMs. You aren't comparing the same market.

Schiendelman

gisterendiscuss

Thanks! I appreciate the positive feedback! :)

Schiendelman

gisterendiscuss

I doubt it. We're less than six months in to really good coding agents, and they keep improving. Software will eat a lot more of the business world when it's this much cheaper and faster to produce.

Schiendelman

gisterendiscuss

These gas fired plants are just not that meaningful, it's too little to be a big deal - we're limited by gas supply and pricing. Renewables are already most new generation: https://environmentamerica.org/center/updates/renewable-ener...

Schiendelman

gisterendiscuss

The price of electricity in Seattle has effectively dropped - we went from a flat 13.4c/kWh to an opt-in time of use system with an overnight rate of 8c/kWh. My bill dropped by a third.

Schiendelman

gisterendiscuss

All three employers I've had over the last ten years now offer free charging at work. New houses everywhere have been putting in extra circuits for charging for years. Apartment buildings are commonly built with chargers now, and older ones are starting to see retrofits.

Electricity generation is almost always much, much cleaner than burning fuel in an internal combustion engine, and has been since long before EVs became available.

I think you may need to reset some of your assumptions. :)

Schiendelman

gisterendiscuss

Yes, that value calculation result has changed. The gap between building software and financial value is knowing which software to build and how to break into a market, not how much code you can write. There are not very many good product managers. Not that I'm necessarily good! But I try to be. :)

Schiendelman

eergisterendiscuss

In the last year we've gone from "this is annoying but sometimes useful" to "I don't need to hire junior engineers". There are some 25 million software engineers worldwide today, and do not ignore Jevon's Paradox - there are far more people who would hire software engineers if the price of engineering was slashed 90% (which is likely an understatement).

If you don't think this will be profitable, you're saying you don't think software, the most profitable enterprise in human history, will be profitable. Looking at it that way, does it make sense why those of us on the business side of software disagree? I've produced more software (and quite good software) in the last six months than I did in the first ten years of my engineering career.

Schiendelman

eergisterendiscuss

The scenario we're discussing is "if OpenAI can't find sufficient additional financing."

It looks like you want to discuss "if prices and demand drop", which would be a different scenario, which I do not believe is likely in the same timeframe barring some separate economic meltdown.

In today's world, the selling price would likely be an increase over what OpenAI paid. This isn't selling hardware, it's selling contracts for future hardware. It's basically futures trading.

Schiendelman

eergisterendiscuss

I'm extremely unconvinced. The article didn't at all address what OpenAI would really do if they couldn't get new financing. They'd sell the contracts for some of that compute to the fifty other companies desperate for it. With supply constrained, they'd likely make money on those sales, and there'd be little or zero downstream impact.

Schiendelman

eergisterendiscuss

See my reply to the other person who replied to me :)

Schiendelman

eergisterendiscuss

You're right. I bet they're going to buy companies that do those things soon, if they haven't already! They're just starting the ball rolling on the corpdev side of things, I think their processes aren't that mature but they'll get it.

Schiendelman

eergisterendiscuss

What's exciting is the line of investment, not the first product.

Nvidia isn't just releasing this and washing their hands. They probably have 2-3 generations in development at the same time. And they wouldn't make this investment if they didn't have strong evidence they can compete with the Apple and ARM products in the same timeline.

Schiendelman

eergisterendiscuss

I don't agree it's going to break these companies; they are all capable of paying their debt service. The reason this was an issue in mortgages was that the mortgages were adjustable rate - the borrowers were defaulting when the rates adjusted because they weren't able to pay the new rates. I'm not aware of any financial instruments for these AI companies that would balloon like this.

Schiendelman

eergisterendiscuss

I think it could be because investors are worried their record valuations won't continue to grow - and are more interested in a guaranteed more conservative investment.

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