danielmarkbruce

4,771 karmajoined 6 jaar geleden

comments

danielmarkbruce

3 dagen geledendiscuss

That's fine though. If that doesn't work for you, don't buy. There are all manner of situations where what one wants or needs and what they get don't match up well. You don't price out every situation - it's take it or leave it. Pricing in a way that is somehow based on cost structure at least enables the provider to work to reduce the cost and hence price and win. Costco prices at a small margin above cost, they don't price "if this meets value prop X, pay Y and if only value prop A, pay B".

danielmarkbruce

5 dagen geledendiscuss

An LLM is an extremely complex thing used for all manner of purposes. The hope that there would be some simple pricing construct that would map nicely to value provided is a pipe dream.

Pricing per token is at least reasonably straight forward. If you aren't getting value, you don't use the service. One doesn't buy a Ferrari and then complain that in their town Ferrari doesn't help them pick up women and hence it should cost less.

danielmarkbruce

8 dagen geledendiscuss

Yeah, we did. It took humans 100,000 or so years to land on the moon - we aren't so clever.

danielmarkbruce

8 dagen geledendiscuss

It's actually market forces. Evolution has almost zero to do with it. It's the past few thousand years where the vast majority of useful abstractions/tools/puzzle pieces have been built that enable any one person to do a lot without knowing so much.

danielmarkbruce

8 dagen geledendiscuss

"We" doesn't mean what you think it means... You don't realize how much detail (and work) you are in fact relying on, but the 8 billion (we) know it in aggregate.

"We" (the 8 billion) have made some insanely great abstractions or puzzle pieces to work with. There is just an insane amount of work that goes into even elementary things to get the world to where it works this way.

danielmarkbruce

11 dagen geledendiscuss

This is getting voted down because people just hate the idea that it's true.

danielmarkbruce

18 dagen geledendiscuss

Other countries take it way more seriously. The US has way more deaths per capita than Australia (just one example) simply due to lack of enforcement of speeding, drunk driving, smart phone use.

danielmarkbruce

23 dagen geledendiscuss

lol if i knew the next big industry i wouldn't be sitting here chatting on hacker news.

New industry after new industry has been created over the past 100 years. It's difficult to believe that all of a sudden that stops.

danielmarkbruce

24 dagen geledendiscuss

No, it doesn't. The economy can grow. Money isn't some fixed amount thing.

danielmarkbruce

24 dagen geledendiscuss

No, I'm not. I was using it to size the market for AI. I don't imagine those people just sit idle. They do something else. Tractors took a good chunk of labor out of farming, those people didn't sit idle.

danielmarkbruce

24 dagen geledendiscuss

No. But stickiness isn't the only way to build a moat. Scale is a way too.

danielmarkbruce

24 dagen geledendiscuss

I meant by dollar amount, not headcount.

danielmarkbruce

24 dagen geledendiscuss

Look at the history of farming. Tractors also don't go to disneyland.

danielmarkbruce

24 dagen geledendiscuss

It's high, really high. But, that isn't bad. In fact... they are better of with it being extremely high. Then scale matters. They need enough revenue at high enough margins to earn a decent return on that spend, but higher is, from a competitive perspective, better.

danielmarkbruce

24 dagen geledendiscuss

It's 40% based on total revenue, not a subset of it.

danielmarkbruce

25 dagen geledendiscuss

I'm not suggesting the people then sit idle. The economy can grow, services can be added, the % done by AI drops, but the raw value of it doesn't. It's just to show that the market is extremely large.

Like agriculture. That market has grown significantly through time, even though it's shrunk dramatically as a % of GDP.

danielmarkbruce

25 dagen geledendiscuss

They are running 40% margins. Every dollar of inference at the margin is profitable.

danielmarkbruce

25 dagen geledendiscuss

If by most, you literally mean > 50%, sure. But I've heard it quoted that knowledge work in advanced economies is something like 40%. So, we are still talking extremely large numbers.

danielmarkbruce

25 dagen geledendiscuss

If you drill a dry well, under successful efforts accounting, you expense it. You also make zero dollars.

On top of that, oil wells decline, slowly but surely, just like... customers churn.

If you spend $100 mill on sales and marketing and get zero customers, I'd agree it should expensed. If you get a bunch of customers, it's hard to argue against the capex treatment idea.

danielmarkbruce

25 dagen geledendiscuss

The words have meaning in accounting. The basic idea of accounting is to communicate what is going on in the business in as consistent a way as possible. It's not a perfect system, but this stuff really is 101.