digitaltrees

24 minuten geledendiscuss

I have started to see what I think are star link satellites at night on walks with my kids. It actually makes me sad to see that on person owns the night sky and is changing the literal stars my kids will grow up with. It feels different when it’s the government that theoretically represents people but when it’s one person that feels truly depressing.

digitaltrees

gisterendiscuss

This is actually really smart. It would be like working with a team of humans.

I have a 3 Mac Studio set up and built an IDE / harness (propelcode.app) and would be interested in contributing if you’re open to collaboration

digitaltrees

gisterendiscuss

Haha. I love the Claude speak.

digitaltrees

eergisterendiscuss

Are you interested in working with partners that are collecting training data?

digitaltrees

4 dagen geledendiscuss

Nice onboarding experience. You should add an explanation of why you need the macOS permissions. I ran a short task and it hung up on one step. But it’s a good project.

digitaltrees

4 dagen geledendiscuss

Haha. Lots of founders are excited that we don't need VCs

digitaltrees

5 dagen geledendiscuss

You might have missed the point.

You don’t get battery charges when there isn’t a functioning state with courts, police and prisons.

City fortifications are an indication that the functional unit of society has compressed to city scale.

It can collapse further to single buildings — castles and further to nomadic warring tribes.

digitaltrees

5 dagen geledendiscuss

A government fortification protects against military attack.

A city fortification protects against basic lawlessness in the absence of a government protective order. It’s a sign of personal level violence

digitaltrees

8 dagen geledendiscuss

I was spending $3000 per month on AI and my team was restrained from using it because we don’t have that type of budget per person. Even $200 per person was a stretch. But we could buy enough hardware that it made sense per person

digitaltrees

8 dagen geledendiscuss

I am going to start using "might need to spend time relaxing with other humans"...brilliant.

digitaltrees

9 dagen geledendiscuss

The thing the overlords are forgetting is they need customers and users.

You are right that the temptation to use the asymmetric advantage AI gives will be intense. But banks felt that temptation in 2008 in with cheap capital and 40x leverage. Some banks resisted. Which ones do you think survived in 2010? Business and technology moves in cycles. Optimize for longevity and let your competitors go out of business

digitaltrees

9 dagen geledendiscuss

I don’t. That’s why I said capitalist not the capital class. Those are distinct groups. You can be a capitalist with no capital and a monopolists that would be happy with state capture once you win and a feudal oligarchy. Much of Silicon Valley is revealing themselves to be just that. They’re going to find out the stark consequences of taking all the toys on the playground

digitaltrees

9 dagen geledendiscuss

Red hat did it for Linux. Someone needs to do the same for AI. Make money on the implementation and maintenance not the api tokens. Tech companies have gotten fat and Happy on recurring revenue. But they are abusing the trust users have placed in them. I feel a back lash in a way I’ve never experienced.

I think AI labs are assuming that if they build and serve intelligence every one will want it. I think the last month has resulted in a lot of people saying “f u I would rather fail in life than serve you”. I personally went from feeling excited and optimistic about building amazing things on top of the models to hell bent on being self reliant and lots of my friends are doing the same.

digitaltrees

9 dagen geledendiscuss

It doesn’t for me.

digitaltrees

9 dagen geledendiscuss

First mover got all the power of the narrative.

digitaltrees

9 dagen geledendiscuss

Many of the improvements are the result of agentic loops and an emphasis on autonomy. Some of us don’t like that because the models go rogue and ignore design patterns, architecture, coding guidelines or other things that are important.

My friends and colleagues that like the agentic autonomy don’t care about the code, they feel like if it works it works and if an AI system is the only intelligence able to understand it that is ok.

I still want to be in the loop. They don’t.

digitaltrees

9 dagen geledendiscuss

I am not sure I understand your arguments. You seem to be taking both positions. I suspect that is because there are a few confounding variables and diverse needs AI solves and that makes a cohesive analysis hard to reach. I have a clear view that cuts through the complexity, whether you find it useful or persuasive is another matter but I’ll lay it out.

1. All intelligence has value. A Harvard MBA or Stanford CS engineer have value. Haiku has value, Opus has value.

2. Sometimes it makes sense to buy, build or rent capabilities. But lack of ownership of something your business requires to operate is an existential risk which requires ownership.

3. Current OSS models are good enough for substantial automation and productivity gains with the right orchestration and harness. Especially with domain experts in the loop.

4. Frontier models while better, introduce existential risk; so they are a temptation that should be ignored if you care about your business being able to continue to exist.

Let’s invert this conclusion. Imagine you build a workflow around Fable 5 and the workflow going down would harm your business. Well the government has demonstrated ability and willingness to impose a multi day / week / month interruption in your business with no legally required notice, right to appeal or compensation. And further demonstrates a willingness to give preferential access to your competitors.

For these reasons, the only viable path is a model you have on servers you control and can replace if needed. That means cloud providers are fine if you have the model archived somewhere.

digitaltrees

9 dagen geledendiscuss

It is. But cash expenditures can be modeled in the business economics. But depending on an unrelated party for a core capability is an existential threat. Imagine if every single computer your business runs on could be bricked without notice or a fallback. You’d go bankrupt within a day. That’s the signal this fiasco has sent.

That being said, I am working on a federated / coop model that will allow smaller companies to pool resources.

digitaltrees

10 dagen geledendiscuss

I am migrating my company to private open source AI and building custom tooling, orchestration, an IDE and harness around it. The commercial labs have show it’s far too risky to build on top of them.

With the labs moving into the app layer every interaction with the API related to product development or innovation is data they will steal and use to compete against you by adding those features to their everything apps. No one would hire a knowledge firm (law firm, accountants, management consultants) if they could steal your information and give it to your competitors. Their actions have remained me that we can’t tolerate that with AI systems.

With spaceX buying cursor and Google buying windsurf, and gathering all the developer interaction as training data, there is too much risk that development process itself will be rug pulled.

digitaltrees

10 dagen geledendiscuss

It’s both. The clients are more impoverished but the caregivers also struggle.

I got into this to build software to lower admin expenses and improve operations for an otherwise under served industry. We are making progress and have supported thousands of people in having stable careers. The horror stories I could tell of other agencies exploiting people due to incompetence or malice are shocking.

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