A persistent bias in prediction markets is pricing very non likely events as slightly more likely than they are. ie; a 1% event priced at 4%, etc, because people like to bet long shots.
Whether there is enough of a predictable bias there to snag enough low return high probability bets to beat the vig and not shift the markets I have not looked into in any way,but it is a known bias with them.
The real money to be made in prediction markets is being the ones with the actual knowledge which is arguably why they are useful and why for some topics, people find them abhorrent.
Location: US
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Technologies: Ruby/Rails, Python, Ops (Heroku/AWS/Docker), CI/CD, API Design, System Architecture, thoughtful experimentation. Some: React, IoT, bit o elm, ML, LLM ops and automation.
Senior/Staff Engineer with a deep focus on backend, ops, and architecture. Can also get in there and knock out frontend features if nec, but don't prefer architechting there. I build durable, scalable systems and have a knack for mentoring teams and leading projects.
I solve problems at every level of abstraction—from the 10,000-foot view down to the code you don't have to write. My first career as a social worker and policy statistician means I never forget the 'who' and 'why' behind the technology. I've been building for the web since '95 and have worked at every stage of startup, plus solo consulting.
I have a special love for complex system design, wrangling crappy third-party APIs, and hunting down really weird bugs. I can step in as a PM in a pinch, but I'd rather work with your great PMs.
Also open to short-term engagements around a specific issue (performance bottlenecks, test suite optimization, a particular stuck feature, etc) at a weekly rate.
I'm looking for a team that genuinely believes their work is making the world a bit better (or even... a lot!)
Senior/Staff full-stack dev (lean more towards devops->backend than backend->frontend, but I can still sling some React components together and reduce your JS payload size). Technical Lead.
I excel at figuring out how to solve problems at all levels of abstraction (including what level of abstraction you should use), getting a solution in place, and then figuring out the feedback loops to iterate on that solution. Sometimes the most impactful code is the code you don't write.
I've been programming on the web since 1995, had a first career as a social worker and policy statistician, and have worked full-time as a coder for almost a decade now at all stages of startup as well as done solo consulting.
Especially enjoy API and system design, integrating with crappy systems, user research, and really weird bugs. Make a decent PM in a pinch, but would prefer you have great PMs. Enjoy mentoring and light mgr/people stuff.
Will give you more looks if you can tell me why what you are doing makes the world better, but you've got to really believe it.
There's not enough high-value jobs to go around. We can either automate and share the wealth, or automate and have a class of useless poor people and some factory owners. Historically the former tends to end in violent ways. And so far, we haven't experimented enough with sharing the wealth in ways that also didn't turn incredibly authoritarian and also oppressive with violent ends...
Senior full-stack dev (lean more towards devops->backend than backend->frontend, but I can still sling some React components together and reduce your JS payload size. Lately I've been loving Stimulus Reflex.)
I excel at figuring out how to solve problems at all levels of abstraction (including what level of abstraction you should use), getting a solution in place, and then figuring out the feedback loops to iterate on that solution. I'm the senior engineer that knows that most coding is coming to an understanding of what problem you are trying to solve. Sometimes the most impactful code is the code you don't write.
Trying to change the world, still parsing the source code. I've been programming on the web since 1995, had a first career as a social worker and policy statistician, and have worked full-time as a programmer for almost a decade now.
Especially enjoy API design, integrating with crappy systems, and really weird bugs
Will give you more looks if you can tell me why what you are doing makes the world better, not just makes you richer, but you've got to really believe it in your heart.
Seeking Work | 5 year+ backend/fullstack web dev (Ruby/Rails mostly, but open to new stacks)
Location: Midwest US/occasionally Europe (US Citizen with EU work permit)
Remote: Only looking for remote work at this time
Technologies: Ruby, Rails, API design, integrations, microservice or monolith architecture, TDD, ops stuff, enough React/JS to fill in for your FE dev for a week or two, but not forever
Whether there is enough of a predictable bias there to snag enough low return high probability bets to beat the vig and not shift the markets I have not looked into in any way,but it is a known bias with them.
The real money to be made in prediction markets is being the ones with the actual knowledge which is arguably why they are useful and why for some topics, people find them abhorrent.