" Do we have any standard benchmarks for humanoids to do domestic tasks?" The answer is yes. Steve Wozniak proposed the Coffee Test. See https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MowergwQR5Y
It's actually very clever. Despite the apparent simplicity, no current model could pass it.
Re your forecasts, I think they are optimistic in terms of timing but not ridiculously so.
I use Claude. It's really good, but you should try to use it as Boris suggests. The other thing I do is give it very careful and precisely worded specs for what you want it to do. I have the habit, born from long experience, of never assuming that junior programmers will know what you want the program to do unless you make it explicit. Claude is the same. LLM code generators are terrific, but they can't second guess unclear communication.
Using carefully written specs, I've found Claude will produce flawless code for quite complex problems. It's magic.
LLMs are parameter based representations of linguistic representations of the world. Relative to robot predictive control problems, they are low dimensional and static. They are batch trained using supervised learning and are not designed to manage real time shifts in the external world or the reward space. They work because they operate in abstract, rule governed spaces like language and mathematics. They are ill suited to predictive control tasks. They are the IBM 360s of AI. Even so, they are astonishing achievements.
LeCun is right to say that continuous self supervised (hierarchical) learning is the next frontier, and that means we need world models. I'm not sure that JEPA is the right tool to get us past that frontier, but at the moment there are not a lot of alternatives on the table.
The Robodebt scandal in Australia didn't spill over to violence in the streets, but it came close. Robodebt was a debt collection system introduced by the Federal government to recover supposed overpayments of social security. It was flawed at every level, including software design, and resulted in nationwide protests. see https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6037228/robo-debt-cen...
It's actually very clever. Despite the apparent simplicity, no current model could pass it.
Re your forecasts, I think they are optimistic in terms of timing but not ridiculously so.