Legal Marijuana Isn’t the Boon Small Businesses Thought It Would Be(fivethirtyeight.com)
fivethirtyeight.com
Legal Marijuana Isn’t the Boon Small Businesses Thought It Would Be
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/legal-weed-isnt-the-boon-small-businesses-thought-it-would-be/
83 comments
I think (speculation based on some light reading) the WA indoor/outdoor split is based on requiring a very high level of oversight and control on the growing operation — from what I understand, WA processes have per-plant requirements.
Put roughly, it’s a lot harder to smuggle 5 plants out of a climate- and access-controlled building than it is to toss a bundle of foliage over a fence.
I live in WA, and have since before the legalization efforts were passed. (I voted for it but do not partake, for various uninteresting reasons.) The approach here was based at least as much on trying to slowly open small, controlled ports in the dam as it was trying to create a viable business opportunity. The idea seems to be “there’s enough demand for a boom now either way, and we can open up later more easily than we can close down.” Honestly, bitcoin miners using super-cheap electricity might be a greater concern for the government, at the moment.
A fence only matters if you have a guard on patrol and that easily offsets the electricity cost.
Two things of interest that the article doesn’t go into:
- Taxes on weed in CA are going to be very high, ~20%. This may drive black market sales.
- Online ordering through Eaze is popular, which might drive the familiar winner take all online commerce market dynamic. A lot of people don’t care for the dispensary experience.
At the end of the day, this is an agricultural product, and a commodity. It was optimistically compared with beer, but beer is made from a recipe, of which there are endless variations to try. Some heavy users care about certain strains and the like, but I have a feeling that for most people weed is weed. The new edible products are a development, but those too will be comoditized.
- Taxes on weed in CA are going to be very high, ~20%. This may drive black market sales.
- Online ordering through Eaze is popular, which might drive the familiar winner take all online commerce market dynamic. A lot of people don’t care for the dispensary experience.
At the end of the day, this is an agricultural product, and a commodity. It was optimistically compared with beer, but beer is made from a recipe, of which there are endless variations to try. Some heavy users care about certain strains and the like, but I have a feeling that for most people weed is weed. The new edible products are a development, but those too will be comoditized.
> Some heavy users care about certain strains and the like, but I have a feeling that for most people weed is weed.
As recently as 5-6 years ago, I would have agreed with this sentiment. These days, however I think this mentality is no longer a responsible one to propagate.
Today's cannabis is, in general, much more potent than it used to be. And now there are ways to consume very large amounts of this extremely potent product in a very short amount of time (concentrates, oils, edibles, etc). No matter how it's consumed, today's average cannabis user is getting a lot more in their hit than prior generations. This means that the difference between a sativa and indica is no longer necessarily a nuanced one.
Today people need to be reasonably sure that what they're getting will meet their needs, because for some one hit may send them spiraling in the totally wrong direction. A user with anxiety issues may need to entirely steer clear of sativas because they are known to cause anxiety attacks. But someone who needs to be around other people may need to avoid indicas because they are known to cause delayed responses and decreased social acumen.
This risk is compounded when people use one of these new, super-powerful 'hybrid' strains because their effects on the individual user are harder to predict than pure indica or sativa strains.
Legalization will put new emphasis on educating users on safe practices, harm reduction, and other such things. In the US, public schools teach harm reduction strategies with alcohol in its various forms, and one day it will probably need to do the same for cannabis.
As recently as 5-6 years ago, I would have agreed with this sentiment. These days, however I think this mentality is no longer a responsible one to propagate.
Today's cannabis is, in general, much more potent than it used to be. And now there are ways to consume very large amounts of this extremely potent product in a very short amount of time (concentrates, oils, edibles, etc). No matter how it's consumed, today's average cannabis user is getting a lot more in their hit than prior generations. This means that the difference between a sativa and indica is no longer necessarily a nuanced one.
Today people need to be reasonably sure that what they're getting will meet their needs, because for some one hit may send them spiraling in the totally wrong direction. A user with anxiety issues may need to entirely steer clear of sativas because they are known to cause anxiety attacks. But someone who needs to be around other people may need to avoid indicas because they are known to cause delayed responses and decreased social acumen.
This risk is compounded when people use one of these new, super-powerful 'hybrid' strains because their effects on the individual user are harder to predict than pure indica or sativa strains.
Legalization will put new emphasis on educating users on safe practices, harm reduction, and other such things. In the US, public schools teach harm reduction strategies with alcohol in its various forms, and one day it will probably need to do the same for cannabis.
> Today people need to be reasonably sure that what they're getting will meet their needs, because for some one hit may send them spiraling in the totally wrong direction. A user with anxiety issues may need to entirely steer clear of sativas because they are known to cause anxiety attacks. But someone who needs to be around other people may need to avoid indicas because they are known to cause delayed responses and decreased social acumen.
What's the source for this, I'm genuinely interested? As far as I'm aware, this is more a marijuana folklore thing than an effect that science has verified.
What's the source for this, I'm genuinely interested? As far as I'm aware, this is more a marijuana folklore thing than an effect that science has verified.
I'm not particularly knowledgeable about this, but I'm guessing that there won't be any really reliable / scientific sources for any of this.
It's been illegal for so long (and at the U.S. Federal level, still is) that I can't imagine there's been much research on this.
It's been illegal for so long (and at the U.S. Federal level, still is) that I can't imagine there's been much research on this.
I don't think it's folklore but am not sure about scientific "proof". I also just heard on the radio yesterday an explanation that high THC content can cause those anxiety effects and the CBDs can balance it out, so in the future they might be marketed in terms of THC:CBD ratios. Interesting.
> in the future they might be marketed in terms of THC:CBD ratios
I don't know about marketing per se, but I was at a dispensary in a recreational state a couple of years back and the THC:CBD ratio was prominently displayed as part of each strain's description, and the staff seemed very well-versed with helpful advice for noobs on the expected effects.
I don't know about marketing per se, but I was at a dispensary in a recreational state a couple of years back and the THC:CBD ratio was prominently displayed as part of each strain's description, and the staff seemed very well-versed with helpful advice for noobs on the expected effects.
It's pretty common knowledge among heavy weed smokers that those strains have those effects. Sometimes science lags a bit behind ...
I don't know anything about pot, but it's pretty evident that conducting controlled studies hasn't been terribly easy, so maybe as that becomes more of a possibility, we'll learn something.
Science lags behind stoners. Duly noted.
In this case it's mainly attributable to the DEA's scheduling system. People have to rely on personal experience because there isn't proper research being done.
This is my greatest frustration around the use of drugs. I think it's ludicrous that more research isn't done on substances that millions of people take.
This is my greatest frustration around the use of drugs. I think it's ludicrous that more research isn't done on substances that millions of people take.
Yes, I’ve long said that if you can't trust the rigorously tested and surely unbiased observations of heavy weed smokers, what can you trust?
It is true that this has entered marijuana folklore. Some people say that the strain type makes no difference to them, and others say that it definitely does.
I'd call them guidelines rather than scientifically-verified law. Just like other psychoactive substances, results can vary wildly among individuals. My anecdotal experiences do largely line up with the folklore, for whatever it's worth. It goes beyond cannabis, too. For me, drinking gin can be very dangerous because for some reason I get hammered after one or two drinks, whereas drinking scotch of the same proof does not affect me nearly as much.
I'd call them guidelines rather than scientifically-verified law. Just like other psychoactive substances, results can vary wildly among individuals. My anecdotal experiences do largely line up with the folklore, for whatever it's worth. It goes beyond cannabis, too. For me, drinking gin can be very dangerous because for some reason I get hammered after one or two drinks, whereas drinking scotch of the same proof does not affect me nearly as much.
THC inhibits the GABA neurotransmitter. GABA is responsible for the "calmness" factor in the brain. Low levels of GABA cause anxiety, paranoia, etc. Certain strains have different terpenes profiles. Terepenes are responsible for the aroma of the flower. Some terpenes change the way THC is absorbed, including preventing the inhibition of the THC GABA effect, which is why terpenes are also responsible for the aromatherapy of a strain. Strains have different terpene profiles based on their genetic makeup.
That's really interesting. Do you know of any sources that list these sorts of properties for strains (and that are reliable/empirical)? I presume the tags on sites like Leafly that mark a strain 'calming' or 'good for depression' are anecdotal and not based in chemistry?
Some empirical effects reasearch from the NIH: https://www.cancer.gov/about-cancer/treatment/cam/hp/cannabi...
I think you need to go deeper because each batch can give a different profile so the strains only provide a guideline.
What you could do is map the smell to the terpene profile.
http://maryjanesdiary.com/terpenes/
What you could do is map the smell to the terpene profile.
http://maryjanesdiary.com/terpenes/
One datapoint, but I witnessed an anxiety attack on a first time cannabis user (who consumed homegrown indica - sativa are usually more difficult to grow indoor as they get taller).
My conviction is that all these theories on strains having such different effects is mostly BS. Until we have scientific evidence, I stay very skeptical.
My conviction is that all these theories on strains having such different effects is mostly BS. Until we have scientific evidence, I stay very skeptical.
> My conviction is that all these theories on strains having such different effects is mostly BS.
How scientific do you want your evidence to be? [0] It's pretty much a fact that different strains have different ratios of cannabinoids and terpenes, these can additionally be altered by the way the cannabis is cured and stored.
Badly cured cannabis still has lot's of chlorophyll in it, making it rough to smoke and changing its effect profile, many people get headaches/depressions from smoking such cannabis.
In that regard, your "one datapoint" is nothing but an anecdotal experience which can be explained by a number of reasons: People who are already prone to anxiety attacks can have their moods increased if they feel stressed out by the whole situation of being "the center of attention" for trying the first time. Especially with a high THC strain with barely any CBD in it to counter the THC effect [1]
Just like overfocusing on trying to "feel the effects" can give the user the impression he's not feeling any effects at all, which is something I've witnessed plenty of times with first-time users: They will be sitting there trying to focus on the effects, pretend they don't feel any, while not even realizing they are already on a small trip with their whole "Look at me I'm not feeling anything over here!" behavior, while they expected the effects to be something like seeing pink elephants roaming trough the room.
A lot of this has to do with decades-old stigma about the effects of cannabis forming a lot of users expectations about its effects.
[0] http://www.amjbot.org/content/91/6/966.full
[1] https://prohbtd.com/how-thc-and-cbd-interact
How scientific do you want your evidence to be? [0] It's pretty much a fact that different strains have different ratios of cannabinoids and terpenes, these can additionally be altered by the way the cannabis is cured and stored.
Badly cured cannabis still has lot's of chlorophyll in it, making it rough to smoke and changing its effect profile, many people get headaches/depressions from smoking such cannabis.
In that regard, your "one datapoint" is nothing but an anecdotal experience which can be explained by a number of reasons: People who are already prone to anxiety attacks can have their moods increased if they feel stressed out by the whole situation of being "the center of attention" for trying the first time. Especially with a high THC strain with barely any CBD in it to counter the THC effect [1]
Just like overfocusing on trying to "feel the effects" can give the user the impression he's not feeling any effects at all, which is something I've witnessed plenty of times with first-time users: They will be sitting there trying to focus on the effects, pretend they don't feel any, while not even realizing they are already on a small trip with their whole "Look at me I'm not feeling anything over here!" behavior, while they expected the effects to be something like seeing pink elephants roaming trough the room.
A lot of this has to do with decades-old stigma about the effects of cannabis forming a lot of users expectations about its effects.
[0] http://www.amjbot.org/content/91/6/966.full
[1] https://prohbtd.com/how-thc-and-cbd-interact
I can't comment on the latter though it may be dangerous to operate machinery or drive just like that's true with SSRIs. Then again, the same might be true with an upper, like Ritalin, or anti psychotics. But the reverse could also be true. Someone with f.e. ADHD who uses Ritalin might be able to be a better driver _due_ to the Ritalin.
As for the former,
1) its widely documented and I can personally attest that marihuana caused anxiety attacks, including one clear case of a psychosis, in numerous occasions.
2) It is also known that people who suffer from schizophrenia should stay clear from marihuana. The same's true if they have a relative who suffers from schizophrenia. Why? Elevated risks to trigger a schizophrenic episode
3) I worked in a Dutch coffeeshop and know that, to put it black-and-white: sativa gets one high, while indica gets one stoned. There's also a lot of hybrids though, as well as some conflicting info. Decent website is Leafly [1]. I was wary to give tourists sativa, as well as spacecakes which we also sold. I recommended them different things instead (including: not buying). My boss didn't give a shit though, as long as people were 18+.
For a good movie about the subject of drug-induced psychosis, see "Das weisse Rauschen" (The White Sound) [2]. Although in this movie the drug which causes the trigger is "magic mushrooms" this movie still takes a good shot at what a drug-induced psychosis could look like.
[1] https://www.leafly.com/
[2] http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0276617/
As for the former,
1) its widely documented and I can personally attest that marihuana caused anxiety attacks, including one clear case of a psychosis, in numerous occasions.
2) It is also known that people who suffer from schizophrenia should stay clear from marihuana. The same's true if they have a relative who suffers from schizophrenia. Why? Elevated risks to trigger a schizophrenic episode
3) I worked in a Dutch coffeeshop and know that, to put it black-and-white: sativa gets one high, while indica gets one stoned. There's also a lot of hybrids though, as well as some conflicting info. Decent website is Leafly [1]. I was wary to give tourists sativa, as well as spacecakes which we also sold. I recommended them different things instead (including: not buying). My boss didn't give a shit though, as long as people were 18+.
For a good movie about the subject of drug-induced psychosis, see "Das weisse Rauschen" (The White Sound) [2]. Although in this movie the drug which causes the trigger is "magic mushrooms" this movie still takes a good shot at what a drug-induced psychosis could look like.
[1] https://www.leafly.com/
[2] http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0276617/
Sorry if my post was a little unclear, I am aware that some marijuana users sometimes experience anxiety as well as the other risks and symptoms you describe, I was specifically referring to the suggested disparate effects of indica vs sativa strains.
> to put it black-and-white: sativa gets one high, while indica gets one stoned.
It's not the first time I've heard this idea, but I have never seen an authoritative source, only the suggestion from marijuana connoisseurs that it is the case. Studies have shown that almost all commercially available marijuana is mislabeled and that many popular marijuana strains are not necessarily chemically distinct despite evident morphological differences - that is to say, most people probably don't know what they're consuming so it may not be wise to rely on the wisdom of the crowd to vet these ideas.
> to put it black-and-white: sativa gets one high, while indica gets one stoned.
It's not the first time I've heard this idea, but I have never seen an authoritative source, only the suggestion from marijuana connoisseurs that it is the case. Studies have shown that almost all commercially available marijuana is mislabeled and that many popular marijuana strains are not necessarily chemically distinct despite evident morphological differences - that is to say, most people probably don't know what they're consuming so it may not be wise to rely on the wisdom of the crowd to vet these ideas.
The Open Cannabis Project curates data from testing labs, the NIH, and elsewhere.
https://opencannabisproject.org/external-data-resources/
I have not seen the mislabeling studies you note. Most of the labels -- strain names -- are not intrinsically meaningful anyway.
w/r/t being chemically distinct, the research I've read show clear differences in cannabinoid and terpene composition between major strains, hybrids created from those, and within all of these per particular harvest, origin, conditions.
The pharmacological effects of those compositions on you won't be exact -- they provide guidance.
https://www.cancer.gov/about-cancer/treatment/cam/hp/cannabi...
(ibuprofen, gin, and brussel sprouts don't effect you and me exactly the same way, either, but we have the general idea of what's involved.)
there's more anecdotal evidence than hard scientific research available because cannabis has been consumed for 3,000 years, but it's been an illegal narcotic in the US for the last 60.
https://opencannabisproject.org/external-data-resources/
I have not seen the mislabeling studies you note. Most of the labels -- strain names -- are not intrinsically meaningful anyway.
w/r/t being chemically distinct, the research I've read show clear differences in cannabinoid and terpene composition between major strains, hybrids created from those, and within all of these per particular harvest, origin, conditions.
The pharmacological effects of those compositions on you won't be exact -- they provide guidance.
https://www.cancer.gov/about-cancer/treatment/cam/hp/cannabi...
(ibuprofen, gin, and brussel sprouts don't effect you and me exactly the same way, either, but we have the general idea of what's involved.)
there's more anecdotal evidence than hard scientific research available because cannabis has been consumed for 3,000 years, but it's been an illegal narcotic in the US for the last 60.
Well, they'll always contain a % of THC and CBD. Together with their taste and freshness, people become a regular of a certain strain from a certain shop because then these factors are the most static.
If you check strains on e.g. Leafly you can see that most are hybrids, and you can also see their ancestry (how they came about). Although in the shop I worked, hybrids weren't sorted as such; all strains were sorted on effect. Clerks were smokers themselves, so they knew what they were selling, because they knew whether they'd get stoned or high. New strains were enthusiastically tested.
If you check strains on e.g. Leafly you can see that most are hybrids, and you can also see their ancestry (how they came about). Although in the shop I worked, hybrids weren't sorted as such; all strains were sorted on effect. Clerks were smokers themselves, so they knew what they were selling, because they knew whether they'd get stoned or high. New strains were enthusiastically tested.
> Today's cannabis is, in general, much more potent than it used to be.
I hear that a lot (especially from anti-legalization people), but I don't believe it makes any difference. What makes a difference to the consumer is the amount of cannabinoids consumed, not the concentration in a given amount of weed.
The typical weed consumption experience is to vaporize/smoke/eat some small amount, and reiterate until satisfaction. Once the sweet spot is reached the experience becomes less enjoyable. If your weed is twice as much potent, you'll iterate two times less...
One could imagine a scenario where a user is caught off-guard by a super strong weed, but I don't see this happening. Standard THC rates are 15-20%(?) you're not going to get much more than that amount and you will always notice at the first inhalation if the weed is more potent than what you're used to.
Edibles are different and need more caution. You can eat an arbitrary amount of cannabinoid and get sick. But this is not related to the weed potency.
I totally agree with you that schools should teach harm reduction strategies (don't smoke week but use vaporizers, be careful with edibles, don't drive, don't make it a habit). I also think that prevention should focus on the real risks of regular cannabis usage, which exist and are not benign (de-socialization, learning impairment...) instead of trying to scare people with things that are extremely unlikely to happen.
I hear that a lot (especially from anti-legalization people), but I don't believe it makes any difference. What makes a difference to the consumer is the amount of cannabinoids consumed, not the concentration in a given amount of weed.
The typical weed consumption experience is to vaporize/smoke/eat some small amount, and reiterate until satisfaction. Once the sweet spot is reached the experience becomes less enjoyable. If your weed is twice as much potent, you'll iterate two times less...
One could imagine a scenario where a user is caught off-guard by a super strong weed, but I don't see this happening. Standard THC rates are 15-20%(?) you're not going to get much more than that amount and you will always notice at the first inhalation if the weed is more potent than what you're used to.
Edibles are different and need more caution. You can eat an arbitrary amount of cannabinoid and get sick. But this is not related to the weed potency.
I totally agree with you that schools should teach harm reduction strategies (don't smoke week but use vaporizers, be careful with edibles, don't drive, don't make it a habit). I also think that prevention should focus on the real risks of regular cannabis usage, which exist and are not benign (de-socialization, learning impairment...) instead of trying to scare people with things that are extremely unlikely to happen.
> I hear that a lot (especially from anti-legalization people), but I don't believe it makes any difference.
Oh, it does. A pre-rolled joint at a coffeeshop from 2017 is far more potent than a pre-rolled joint at a coffeeshop from 1997 or the 70s/80s. Beginners often cannot roll their own, and think that they should finish the whole pre-rolled joint all by themselves or together with that one friend.
Beginners: everyone who smoked was once a beginner. Do yourself a favour and take one puff. Then use an ash tray to put the joint off.
Nevermind the people who want to try spacecake, or make their own hash oil.
Also, not everyone's as sensitive, and stomach/sugar has effect as well.
It also has a long half-life, and I've witnessed people starting to believe all kind of paranormal/new age shenanigans thanks to regular cannabis usage. Heck, I've done that myself as well.
Problem with the advice "don't make it a habit" is that many drug users have serious mental problems which they combat (successfully or not) with self medication.
Oh, it does. A pre-rolled joint at a coffeeshop from 2017 is far more potent than a pre-rolled joint at a coffeeshop from 1997 or the 70s/80s. Beginners often cannot roll their own, and think that they should finish the whole pre-rolled joint all by themselves or together with that one friend.
Beginners: everyone who smoked was once a beginner. Do yourself a favour and take one puff. Then use an ash tray to put the joint off.
Nevermind the people who want to try spacecake, or make their own hash oil.
Also, not everyone's as sensitive, and stomach/sugar has effect as well.
It also has a long half-life, and I've witnessed people starting to believe all kind of paranormal/new age shenanigans thanks to regular cannabis usage. Heck, I've done that myself as well.
Problem with the advice "don't make it a habit" is that many drug users have serious mental problems which they combat (successfully or not) with self medication.
> Once the sweet spot is reached the experience becomes less enjoyable
Not much different than alcohol in that respect. Some people abuse high dosages but most don't because it's usually an unpleasant experience. The problem with marijuana specifically is the advocacy/culture that celebrates over indulgence in a way we haven't seen since the glory days of 'Mad Men' style alcoholism.
Not much different than alcohol in that respect. Some people abuse high dosages but most don't because it's usually an unpleasant experience. The problem with marijuana specifically is the advocacy/culture that celebrates over indulgence in a way we haven't seen since the glory days of 'Mad Men' style alcoholism.
> One could imagine a scenario where a user is caught off-guard by a super strong weed, but I don't see this happening. Standard THC rates are 15-20%(?) you're not going to get much more than that amount and you will always notice at the first inhalation if the weed is more potent than what you're used to.
For infrequent users, I believe the potency does make a difference because undesired effects could come with as little as a single hit.
Cannabis potency 10 years ago was 7%, and yes today's rates are at around 15%. I figure that means that in 10 years the potency of a single hit of cannabis has doubled.
For infrequent users, I believe the potency does make a difference because undesired effects could come with as little as a single hit.
Cannabis potency 10 years ago was 7%, and yes today's rates are at around 15%. I figure that means that in 10 years the potency of a single hit of cannabis has doubled.
I have a hard time finding my preference of 15% THC unless it's CBD-dominant (and then THC is usually below even 5-10%). Here in WA, THC amounts are generally 20-30%.
Couldn't agree more. It's like saying that Boone's farm and Screaming Eagle Cab are both 'just wine'.
Taxes on weed in CA are going to be very high, ~20%. This may drive black market sales.
WA’s taxes are ungodly high for weed (EDIT: w/o looking it up, more than 20%, that’s for sure). Didn’t seem to slow down things much. A new store just opened closer to the house, and I don’t know of a single store that has closed. Personally, I’m more than willing to pay the “convenience fee” to just drive down the road any time I like and score some weed. That, and let’s do what we can to encourage the legal stuff, eh? We collectively get one shot at this, let’s not screw it up.
But if WA is any indication, give it a few years of high prices, then the prices will settle down. Pot was outrageously expensive in WA when it first legal, but it’s pretty reasonable now, I think.
As for online ordering, yeah, that’s going to be a thing. Because the experience of “here’s a menu, hurry and make a selection from 200 different items while you’re in line.” doesnt work for me, either. One local shop offers online ordering, and the only reason I don’t use them exclusively is that they’re out of the way.
But you’re right, pot isn’t beer, it’s corn. The only reason I don’t grow some next to the tomato plants is because WA says I can’t. So the only barrier from me taking production in-house is legal, which seems to be a pretty thin moat with which to protect your castle.
WA’s taxes are ungodly high for weed (EDIT: w/o looking it up, more than 20%, that’s for sure). Didn’t seem to slow down things much. A new store just opened closer to the house, and I don’t know of a single store that has closed. Personally, I’m more than willing to pay the “convenience fee” to just drive down the road any time I like and score some weed. That, and let’s do what we can to encourage the legal stuff, eh? We collectively get one shot at this, let’s not screw it up.
But if WA is any indication, give it a few years of high prices, then the prices will settle down. Pot was outrageously expensive in WA when it first legal, but it’s pretty reasonable now, I think.
As for online ordering, yeah, that’s going to be a thing. Because the experience of “here’s a menu, hurry and make a selection from 200 different items while you’re in line.” doesnt work for me, either. One local shop offers online ordering, and the only reason I don’t use them exclusively is that they’re out of the way.
But you’re right, pot isn’t beer, it’s corn. The only reason I don’t grow some next to the tomato plants is because WA says I can’t. So the only barrier from me taking production in-house is legal, which seems to be a pretty thin moat with which to protect your castle.
> As for online ordering, yeah, that’s going to be a thing.
If the Darknet is any indication (and according to High Times[0], it is), you're right about this. Cannabis is the most popular product sold on the various illicit online drug marketplaces.
[0] https://hightimes.com/business/marijuana-is-the-most-popular...
If the Darknet is any indication (and according to High Times[0], it is), you're right about this. Cannabis is the most popular product sold on the various illicit online drug marketplaces.
[0] https://hightimes.com/business/marijuana-is-the-most-popular...
I don't have any data on WA's black market vs white market, but I do have some anecdata: the thriving community of illicit entrepreneurs hanging out by the U District Jack in the Box has completely vanished since legalization.
(And it is quite literally a black/white thing, too - the people selling weed in shops are pretty much uniformly white, whereas the illegal market was a lot more mixed-race.)
(And it is quite literally a black/white thing, too - the people selling weed in shops are pretty much uniformly white, whereas the illegal market was a lot more mixed-race.)
Have a Heart? Their online ordering is the best, and they do essentially a constant 10% off discount if you sign up for their membership (every time you order you get a discount based on your purchase amount you can apply on your next order. I believe it's roughly equivalent to $1 for every $10 purchased.) I switched from Uncle Ike's and never looked back.
The only pro I see for the line is that the staff can help you pick out a nice strain depending on your needs and you don't have to do the research yourself. Personally, I'm in the same boat as you. I get stressed out looking at all the choices while in the store and almost exclusively use the online ordering system before I leave the house. By the time I reach the store (a few minutes away) the order is ready for pickup.
It's crazy to think of how far it's come in the few years since it got legalized. From the quasilegal delivery services or even worse going to Westlake Park or another sketch location at night to a clean, accessible system with some of the nicest people around.
The only pro I see for the line is that the staff can help you pick out a nice strain depending on your needs and you don't have to do the research yourself. Personally, I'm in the same boat as you. I get stressed out looking at all the choices while in the store and almost exclusively use the online ordering system before I leave the house. By the time I reach the store (a few minutes away) the order is ready for pickup.
It's crazy to think of how far it's come in the few years since it got legalized. From the quasilegal delivery services or even worse going to Westlake Park or another sketch location at night to a clean, accessible system with some of the nicest people around.
Have a Heart? Their online ordering is the best
I’m actually over in Redmond. Choices are a little slimmer in the ‘burbs, I notice. :-) No matter, I’ve pretty much settled on what I want, so I go to the one closer, waltz in and get it, go home. When I walk and they say, “the usual, mikestew?”, then I’ll know I need to dial back. :-)
I’m actually over in Redmond. Choices are a little slimmer in the ‘burbs, I notice. :-) No matter, I’ve pretty much settled on what I want, so I go to the one closer, waltz in and get it, go home. When I walk and they say, “the usual, mikestew?”, then I’ll know I need to dial back. :-)
Cigarettes cost about $0.10 a pack to manufacture so maybe $0.50 price for highly marketed brands. Price these days, with the added tax and sudo-tax lawsuit settlement, $5-$10 a pack. About 10x so 1000% tax or so. 20% seems mild especially considering normal sales tax in CA is around 10%.
I don't see a fundamental reason the cost of weed won't be around the price of tobacco in a fully legalized and big-ag growing environment. 5-10 years?
I don't see a fundamental reason the cost of weed won't be around the price of tobacco in a fully legalized and big-ag growing environment. 5-10 years?
I think the reason for high tobacco taxes is because of the harm smoking tobacco causes. At least in the UK, where the taxpayer foots the nation's medical bills, the escalating taxes seem designed to slowly but surely make smoking a thing of the past. It seems to be working.
The taxes won't be an issue. They'll easily be swamped by lowered costs, eventually.
One major issue is retail store licenses; few cities are deciding to license stores, and they're not happening on day 1 (for the most part).
Another issue is licenses for growers. Currently growing licenses only allow 1 acre under cultivation, and it sounds like production will be nowhere near high enough to meet demand, at least initially.
It sounds like CA's start into the legal market will be a lot rockier than most.
One major issue is retail store licenses; few cities are deciding to license stores, and they're not happening on day 1 (for the most part).
Another issue is licenses for growers. Currently growing licenses only allow 1 acre under cultivation, and it sounds like production will be nowhere near high enough to meet demand, at least initially.
It sounds like CA's start into the legal market will be a lot rockier than most.
> It was optimistically compared with beer, but beer is made from a recipe, of which there are endless variations to try. Some heavy users care about certain strains and the like, but I have a feeling that for most people weed is weed.
Weed is weed when it's illegal--you take what the dealer's got or you get nothing. Same thing with booze, during Prohibition. When it's actually possible to comparison-shop, you see a lot more preferences developing.
Weed is weed when it's illegal--you take what the dealer's got or you get nothing. Same thing with booze, during Prohibition. When it's actually possible to comparison-shop, you see a lot more preferences developing.
"for most people weed is weed"
Never underestimate the power of marketing.
Everywhere I look in our world, marketing is king. It doesn't matter how crappy your product is, if it's marketed well, people will buy it.
Never underestimate the power of marketing.
Everywhere I look in our world, marketing is king. It doesn't matter how crappy your product is, if it's marketed well, people will buy it.
>> if it's marketed well, people will buy it.
Budweiser. The people who like to talk about bear don't drink Bud. Nevertheless, by volume and market share, Bud is probably America's favorite beer. If you want to be the pot equivalent of a craft beer company then complain about the prices and taxation. But if you want to play in the big leagues, price and consistency are all that matters.
Budweiser. The people who like to talk about bear don't drink Bud. Nevertheless, by volume and market share, Bud is probably America's favorite beer. If you want to be the pot equivalent of a craft beer company then complain about the prices and taxation. But if you want to play in the big leagues, price and consistency are all that matters.
> I have a feeling that for most people weed is weed.
That oversimplification works both ways: For many people, beer is just beer. And just like with beer, there are endless variations of cannabis strains, different ways or preparation and different ways of consuming. Just the way cannabis is cured can make a vast difference in taste and effect.
With alcohol, many places often have centuries-old traditions for consumption and brewing, cannabis just started going down that route, so imho it's just logical that there's a lot of catching up to happen because most of the knowledge we collected is stuck in the realm of "illegality" and spread thin between users, with no real way of consolidating it in a useful way.
It's gonna take a lot of time to lose the stigma which has been, purposely, build up around cannabis for decades.
That oversimplification works both ways: For many people, beer is just beer. And just like with beer, there are endless variations of cannabis strains, different ways or preparation and different ways of consuming. Just the way cannabis is cured can make a vast difference in taste and effect.
With alcohol, many places often have centuries-old traditions for consumption and brewing, cannabis just started going down that route, so imho it's just logical that there's a lot of catching up to happen because most of the knowledge we collected is stuck in the realm of "illegality" and spread thin between users, with no real way of consolidating it in a useful way.
It's gonna take a lot of time to lose the stigma which has been, purposely, build up around cannabis for decades.
I'm sure some black market activity will remain because of the tax rate, but I'm also sure most middle- and upper-class people would prefer to pay more for their weed at a legal venue than risk arrest by buying from a black market dealer.
There also exists a black market for cigarettes because of taxes, but the vast majority of smokers buy cigarettes legally because it is easier and safer and runs no risk of arrest.
There also exists a black market for cigarettes because of taxes, but the vast majority of smokers buy cigarettes legally because it is easier and safer and runs no risk of arrest.
This may drive black market sales.
> Taxes on weed in CA are going to be very high, ~20%. This may drive black market sales.
The last I heard was that those with a prescription wouldn't have to pay the tax, and since it's so easy to get a prescription, at least ATM, I would imagine that would be the first avenue before the black market (heck, I would even say that getting it from friends who grow their own would be a gray market angle that would probably happen before getting it from the black market suppliers).
But I don't know if there have been any changes in the law during this past year regarding taxation for medical patients.
The last I heard was that those with a prescription wouldn't have to pay the tax, and since it's so easy to get a prescription, at least ATM, I would imagine that would be the first avenue before the black market (heck, I would even say that getting it from friends who grow their own would be a gray market angle that would probably happen before getting it from the black market suppliers).
But I don't know if there have been any changes in the law during this past year regarding taxation for medical patients.
Taxes in Oakland are increasing from 14.25% to 34.25%, and in San Jose they are increasing from 19.25% to the same 34.25%. [1]
Medical users with a county Medical Marijuana Information Card (MMIC) are only exempt from a portion of this, the 8.5% sales and use tax. [2]
To get an MMIC you first need a doctor's recommendation (typically $40/year). The maximum cost of an MMIC from the county is $100/year, or $50/year for Medi-Cal patients.
So to save the 8.5% sales tax, you need to visit a cannabis doctor, wait in line, and pay $40, then visit the county public health department, wait in line again, and pay as much as another $100.
If you are a heavy user, this could save you some money, but I have a feeling that most people in California who are currently medical users will simply drop the medical recommendation and buy under the new adult-use rules.
[1] https://www.shopharborside.com/adult-use-regs.html (expand the "new taxes" item)
[2] https://www.thegreencross.org/newsletter
Medical users with a county Medical Marijuana Information Card (MMIC) are only exempt from a portion of this, the 8.5% sales and use tax. [2]
To get an MMIC you first need a doctor's recommendation (typically $40/year). The maximum cost of an MMIC from the county is $100/year, or $50/year for Medi-Cal patients.
So to save the 8.5% sales tax, you need to visit a cannabis doctor, wait in line, and pay $40, then visit the county public health department, wait in line again, and pay as much as another $100.
If you are a heavy user, this could save you some money, but I have a feeling that most people in California who are currently medical users will simply drop the medical recommendation and buy under the new adult-use rules.
[1] https://www.shopharborside.com/adult-use-regs.html (expand the "new taxes" item)
[2] https://www.thegreencross.org/newsletter
Those taxes on weed don't look bad compared to what I think is the current equivalent product with even higher taxes - cigarettes - how is the situation different in your view?
There’s a much more robust black market already in place for marijuana than for cigarettes. Washington has all the same products and is right next door, and taxes at 3% [1]. Also at least in CA municipalities are adding their own taxes, so the distance you need to travel to enable black market arbitrage might not be much.
1 - https://dor.wa.gov/sites/default/files/legacy/Docs/Reports/2...
1 - https://dor.wa.gov/sites/default/files/legacy/Docs/Reports/2...
The WA tax on marijuana is far higher than 3% -- there's a 37% excise tax[1] and then additional local sales taxes may be applied as well.
[1]: https://dor.wa.gov/about/statistics-reports/recreational-and...
[1]: https://dor.wa.gov/about/statistics-reports/recreational-and...
Your link shows the weighted local sales tax rate at 3%. The state sales tax is 6.5%, reflected under 'Estimated state sales tax collections'.
The state excise tax (pre-sales tax) is 37% according to https://lcb.wa.gov/mj2015/faqs-on-taxes .
The state excise tax (pre-sales tax) is 37% according to https://lcb.wa.gov/mj2015/faqs-on-taxes .
There seems to be no shortage of prosecutions for people smuggling cigarettes, or avoiding the taxes.
I've literally never heard of a cigarette-smuggling prosecution. I don't doubt that it happens, but it's small-time. Given the option, it seems that most people would rather pay a bit more than creep around like criminals to get their fix.
Here in Virgnia they have police set up on the north side of the Chesapeake Bay Bridge Tunnel. Alot of contraband moves to NYC via US Highway 13 North and the police are pretty good at spotting smugglers. Coming out of the tunnel you are in a pinch spot and they use this area for recon.
The tax on cigarettes in NYC is so high they smuggle from Virginia. Lot of guns move the same route and the NYC people keep complaining that we have weak enforcement.
>There’s a much more robust black market already in place for marijuana than for cigarettes
Dunno, it's easier to order black market cigarettes online with a credit card than to order black market marijuana.
Dunno, it's easier to order black market cigarettes online with a credit card than to order black market marijuana.
Excise taxes in Washington state on weed are 37%, much higher than the ~20% you suggest for CA.
https://lcb.wa.gov/mj2015/faqs-on-taxes
https://dor.wa.gov/find-taxes-rates/taxes-due-marijuana
https://lcb.wa.gov/mj2015/faqs-on-taxes
https://dor.wa.gov/find-taxes-rates/taxes-due-marijuana
>Online ordering through Eaze is popular, which might drive the familiar winner take all online commerce market dynamic. A lot of people don’t care for the dispensary experience.
Anecdotally, I've seen a ton of small delivery services popping up in the Bay Area recently and doing well. Turns out selling weed is profitable.
Anecdotally, I've seen a ton of small delivery services popping up in the Bay Area recently and doing well. Turns out selling weed is profitable.
>Some heavy users care about certain strains and the like, but I have a feeling that for most people weed is weed.
I'd be surprised if that's the case, and even if it's the case in the beginning, I'd be surprised if it's still the case after a few years.
I'd be surprised if that's the case, and even if it's the case in the beginning, I'd be surprised if it's still the case after a few years.
Have you tried Eaze? Could you describe the experience? There's a couple of online sites in Oregon (where I am based) but they don't reach my area and the local dispensary is 10 minutes away.
I've used Eaze. You pick an item from a menu in the website or app (although the Android app doesn't work for me), then someone drives up 20 minutes later and hands the item over. In my case I've gone outside to the driver's passenger window, they didn't come to my door. Think Uber, except the driver takes longer to arrive and gives you weed.
It's like any other delivery service, but I suspect the economics work better than food delivery because users make larger orders, you don't need to pick up from restaurants, and freshness is not as important (comparing to a central kitchen for food delivery).
It's like any other delivery service, but I suspect the economics work better than food delivery because users make larger orders, you don't need to pick up from restaurants, and freshness is not as important (comparing to a central kitchen for food delivery).
Hi folks, I'm one of the founders of https://www.topshelfdata.com, the site that provided most of the data used in the article.
Let me know if you have any questions related to the data that I can answer (it may take a few hours since I am about to hit the sack).
Related: here's our Show HN post that was on the front page of HN earlier this year. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=13767772
Let me know if you have any questions related to the data that I can answer (it may take a few hours since I am about to hit the sack).
Related: here's our Show HN post that was on the front page of HN earlier this year. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=13767772
This is interesting for the fact of watching a black market item go to retail and the expectations of "street" price versus actual market price might have been just too high.
There will certainly be a niche market for gourmet, organic, homegrown and cared for buds, but for the remainder of products: oils, waxes, edibles, infusions - you are not going to notice the difference between a small business and a larger growing operation except on price.
It seems rather obvious when you think about it though. I would compare cannabis to produce rather than beer/wine/spirits, in the sense that your small growers are going to have a tough time competing with giant farm operations, and will really have to differentiate themselves in specific ways to actually make it worth while.
There will certainly be a niche market for gourmet, organic, homegrown and cared for buds, but for the remainder of products: oils, waxes, edibles, infusions - you are not going to notice the difference between a small business and a larger growing operation except on price.
It seems rather obvious when you think about it though. I would compare cannabis to produce rather than beer/wine/spirits, in the sense that your small growers are going to have a tough time competing with giant farm operations, and will really have to differentiate themselves in specific ways to actually make it worth while.
I think it is pretty similar to the boutique small volume/high-cost products sold in Whole Foods. There are still a number of small artisanal handmade soap manufacturers, and they command premium prices for what is perceived as a premium product. People buy them. People also buy giant packs of soap at Walmart. Both markets exist simultaneously. The small places will almost certainly not be able to compete in a race to the bottom on pricing with corporate entities that have the capital to spend several million on a farming facility.
Access to the banking services other small businesses enjoy would help.
I will pay tax on an 1/8th before I will subject myself to Criminal Prosection.
I will pay tax on an 1/8th before I will subject myself to Criminal Prosection.
Well for growers you can get better quality on a smaller scale so the grow side of the business will always have a door open for people who can grow high quality medicines.
If you ask me, this "slow roll-out" of legal cannabis in the United States has been planned and directed entirely by big business the entire time.
Maybe it's a plot to make the lower classes more passive so they don't revolt. I've been amazed to see the GOP reverse course on this.
Plenty of Democrats have "reversed course" as well.
I think Hillary was against legalizing the herb wasn't she? Did she ever reverse position?
Politicians are just politicians for the most part. Whatever they think will get them in office.
I think Hillary was against legalizing the herb wasn't she? Did she ever reverse position?
Politicians are just politicians for the most part. Whatever they think will get them in office.
She’s always been against legalization. Still is AFAIK.
The GOP largely reversed course because of the obvious reason: their voters have changed their minds about marijuana over the last two decades. Opinion polls among GOP voters from the early 1990s to now, tell that story.
It's the same reason the GOP is gradually shifting its mindset on how to deal with opioid addiction (incarceration vs treatment, decriminalization, lessened criminalization, etc). GOP voting districts are getting hammered by it. It has become personal. It's likely everyone living in a GOP-dominated area, knows someone who is dealing with or has dealt with opioid addiction. There are now millions of opioid addicts in GOP voting districts in a given five year time span.
It's the same reason the GOP is gradually shifting its mindset on how to deal with opioid addiction (incarceration vs treatment, decriminalization, lessened criminalization, etc). GOP voting districts are getting hammered by it. It has become personal. It's likely everyone living in a GOP-dominated area, knows someone who is dealing with or has dealt with opioid addiction. There are now millions of opioid addicts in GOP voting districts in a given five year time span.
Easy answer.... Squares don't know how to sell weed. It's been so underground for so long, walking in a store or searching online comparing prices is both a foreign and weird process. These shops may need to recruit some real hustlers. No different than hiring a sales staff.
Holy guacamole those weed prices are off the scales!
$7.50 a gram? Weed should cost about the same amount as catnip.
I can buy 4 oz of catnip for $8 on eBay. That's over 100g, about 8 cents a gram.
$7.50 a gram? Weed should cost about the same amount as catnip.
I can buy 4 oz of catnip for $8 on eBay. That's over 100g, about 8 cents a gram.
Catnip is sold as leaves and stems, but marijuana is usually sold as the flowers. The percentage waste is much higher. And catnip does not require careful segregation of male and female plants to avoid unwanted seed production.
Catnip and marijuana are different enough that I wouldn't expect them to cost the same.
However, I don't see why it wouldn't be similar to growing bittering hops like the ones used by beer homebrewers.
I can buy a pound of "Mosaic" hops -- 450 grams -- for $30 at my local homebrew supply store. That's less than 7 cents per gram....
However, I don't see why it wouldn't be similar to growing bittering hops like the ones used by beer homebrewers.
I can buy a pound of "Mosaic" hops -- 450 grams -- for $30 at my local homebrew supply store. That's less than 7 cents per gram....
Black market prices in the UK are around $14/g for weed, so these prices seem great from the other side of the pond!
What's with the catnip comparison?
What's with the catnip comparison?
Weed "should" be mandatory for every citizen, supplied free from the Government.
It should maybe but it doesn’t.
That's because what we need is deregulation of cannabis, not "legalization". You need only look at the massive tome of over 200 pages that California has proposed to regulate recreational marijuana starting in 2018 to see what the issue is. Laws and regulations have their place in society to a certain degree. Our country has gone way, way overboard as far as laws and regulations are concerned. This massive over-litigation on every level acts as a massive drain on our resources, our economy, and our society as a whole. Any regulations "needed" for cannabis should be able to fit on a single sheet of paper - but we would be far better off if the government had no role at all. The burdensome, poorly-written, oft-conflicting tangle of regulations written by unintelligent politicians at the behest of their wealthy donors do far more harm than good in most cases, and certainly as it regards cannabis. It isn't some sort of an accident that startup costs for regulatory compliance are massive - that's the whole reason for their existence. We are $21 trillion dollars and debt on the federal level and saturated with even more debt on every level from state to county to village. Our bridges and roads are falling apart, our pensions are underfunded and every year more Americans slide into poverty. Not only is the nanny state a terrible idea, but its an idea that we no longer afford - especially when the nanny is a corrupt Wall Street crony.
I honestly don't understand this, since it is a lot less expensive to build a highly secure double-perimeter razorwire fence around a farm than it is to pay $4500/month electrical bills.
Sunlight is free.
In Canada's recently announced system, which gives a lot of control to individual provinces, BC has announced that they will allow greenhouse based farms.