Ask YC: (Contrarian) Is this a great time to start or what?
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I think it's more that many of these unfunded, small-team startups (possibly including mine) will throw in the towel and get regular jobs, abandoning their startups. Heck, they may join other startups, and the winners will emerge strong with many of these former single founders having rather generous stock option grants.
A good comparison might be the automobile industry in the 1920s or the oil industry in the 1870s. Market was glutted with small fly-by-night operators, who were bought up at or below cost. However, they were often bought for stock in the acquirers, which then skyrocketed when competition declined. Many of them became very wealthy as manager-employees, much better than if they'd been employees from the beginning.
A good comparison might be the automobile industry in the 1920s or the oil industry in the 1870s. Market was glutted with small fly-by-night operators, who were bought up at or below cost. However, they were often bought for stock in the acquirers, which then skyrocketed when competition declined. Many of them became very wealthy as manager-employees, much better than if they'd been employees from the beginning.
COMPETITION, GLUT. And the smart money, like Marc Andreesson is already preparing for cheap roll-ups for the coming "nuclear winter" (his words, not mine).
I hope my prediction doesn't come true, but a lot of people here are going to get acquired for at or below cost. Market gluts do that, every single time.
In 2002, you could have picked up an optical company (or 100 of them!) for 1/10th of the total VC in.
Start up school 2008 == Contrarian Indicator?