A call to honesty in pandemic modeling(medium.com)

https://medium.com/@wpegden/a-call-to-honesty-in-pandemic-modeling-5c156686a64b

3 comments

I think the assumption is that in 2 months, we'll have test capacity, lower number of cases, and we'll be able to switch to containment.

But this assumption definitely needs to be articulated.

lowdose6 lat temu

Such an assumption should be explicitly been represented in the prediction model. Cutting off the time window of a model at an arbitrary period of 2 months is ambiguous at best when the model is about estimating the cumulative outcome in time.

lern_too_spel6 lat temu

The point of these models is to estimate peak utilization of health facilities, not to predict outcomes of different remedies after the initial suppression period.