Is Russia going to war with Ukraine and other questions(bbc.com)
bbc.com
Is Russia going to war with Ukraine and other questions
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-56720589
109 comments
I don't think it is misleading. Novorossiya, as Wikipedia points out, is a historical term. It does not exist on political maps. The phrasing is the same as if someone wanted to carve out a chunk of Germany and call it Prussia.
Yes, it's misleading because it ignores the revanchist reasoning of Russia in favor of simple "Russia bad, Russia invader, Russia imperialist" narratives.
Novorossiya was historically a part of the Russian Empire for a very long time. Russia clearly wants it back. Whether they are justified in getting it or not, I have no comment. But the least we can do is actually understand their reasoning.
Novorossiya was historically a part of the Russian Empire for a very long time. Russia clearly wants it back. Whether they are justified in getting it or not, I have no comment. But the least we can do is actually understand their reasoning.
And India was part of the British empire, Mexico (then called the viceroyalty of New Spain) a part of Spain and the list goes on. Might makes right belongs to a bygone age and people are entitled to self-determination.
To decline to stand up to dictator - nay, a tyrant - such as Putin makes one a coward undeserving of the liberties they were born with.
To decline to stand up to dictator - nay, a tyrant - such as Putin makes one a coward undeserving of the liberties they were born with.
These are not really good examples. India, Mexico, etc. were different cultures with thousands of years of history as independent entities. Novorossiya and indeed large parts of the current political state of Ukraine were a part of "Russia" for hundreds of years. Ukraine itself didn't really exist as a unified state from the end of the Kievan Rus (13th century) until the 20th century and was mostly a battleground between Poland, Russia, and the Ottoman Empire.
Like I said, it's complicated. Does that justify Russia's actions? I don't know and I am deliberately explaining this in a neutral way.
Like I said, it's complicated. Does that justify Russia's actions? I don't know and I am deliberately explaining this in a neutral way.
There are plenty of regions in Europe that have similar histories and few countries in Europe are really that old, even states with long histories have not had constitutional orders lasting more than 50 years. Finland was a part of Sweden for 600 years, Denmark part of Norway for an equal amount time. Neither of those facts in any way reduces the Finnish or Norwegian people's right to self determination.
Waging aggressive war is a violation of international law - The state of Ukraine is the legitimate successor to Ukrainian SFR and if Russia has any claims on its territory those must be pursued through legal means.
There is nothing complicated about the Ukrainian question, it is simply a part of Putin's strategy of death by a thousand cuts. Last time that strategy was used Europe was thrown into a conflict that made the world say never again to nationalism. The Russian people would have done well to listen to their grandfathers now that this conflict is all but forgot.
Waging aggressive war is a violation of international law - The state of Ukraine is the legitimate successor to Ukrainian SFR and if Russia has any claims on its territory those must be pursued through legal means.
There is nothing complicated about the Ukrainian question, it is simply a part of Putin's strategy of death by a thousand cuts. Last time that strategy was used Europe was thrown into a conflict that made the world say never again to nationalism. The Russian people would have done well to listen to their grandfathers now that this conflict is all but forgot.
I don't really know why you're arguing with me. I'm just trying to explain the situation.
With your focus on self-determination: if Ukraine allowed specific regions to hold referendums, it is very likely that many regions would opt to join Russia. Then what?
As I have said numerous times now: it is complicated.
With your focus on self-determination: if Ukraine allowed specific regions to hold referendums, it is very likely that many regions would opt to join Russia. Then what?
As I have said numerous times now: it is complicated.
Please stop spreading lies. Nothing complicated.
Only fools wants to Russia what it become today. State without justice and fair elections, incredibly poor population, no allies.
They've claimed they are "brothers". We were not ready to fight in 2014, not ready to kill "brothers". Now we know who they are. This war affected everyone in Ukraine. Every citizen have seen struggles and poverty caused by war. We know what become of Donetsk and Luhansk. They are going to destroy other cities too. That's not brothers, that's worst enemies.
My mother language in Russian. Now I hate Russia.
Only fools wants to Russia what it become today. State without justice and fair elections, incredibly poor population, no allies.
They've claimed they are "brothers". We were not ready to fight in 2014, not ready to kill "brothers". Now we know who they are. This war affected everyone in Ukraine. Every citizen have seen struggles and poverty caused by war. We know what become of Donetsk and Luhansk. They are going to destroy other cities too. That's not brothers, that's worst enemies.
My mother language in Russian. Now I hate Russia.
Pro tip: If you ever want to have a genuine discussion with someone, don’t start off by saying they are “spreading lies.”
I would understand your comments in 2014. Since than we know so many facts. And the last one — you are commenting on full blown war by Russia on Ukraine territory. Like if bullets knows are we Russian enough. That's selective blindness. Sorry, no hope for genuine discussion.
And this is exactly how Ukraine came to life in 1991.
Russia is the name of the historical region too, now called Ukraine. Should Ukraine(historical Russia) annex Russian Federation, because it's Russian?
No, it isn't. The historical region is called Rus. Not the same thing.
It is, though. In other languages the etymology is even clearer. In German the place is called Russland for instance.
No, it isn't. Ruthenians, Belarusians, Ukrainians, and Russians are all descendants of the Rus. Belarus does not mean "White Russia", it means "White Rus."
> Originally, the name Rus' (Cyrillic: Русь) referred to the people,[1] regions, and medieval states (9th to 12th centuries) of the Kievan Rus'. In Western culture, it was better known as Ruthenia from the 11th century onwards,[2] Its territories are today distributed among Belarus, Northern Ukraine, Eastern Poland, and the European section of Russia. The term Россия (Rossija), comes from the Byzantine Greek designation of the Rus', Ρωσσία Rossía—spelled Ρωσία (Rosía pronounced [roˈsia]) in Modern Greek.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Names_of_Rus%27,_Russia_and_...
Using exonyms to determine the "real" name of a place is also a very odd choice.
> Originally, the name Rus' (Cyrillic: Русь) referred to the people,[1] regions, and medieval states (9th to 12th centuries) of the Kievan Rus'. In Western culture, it was better known as Ruthenia from the 11th century onwards,[2] Its territories are today distributed among Belarus, Northern Ukraine, Eastern Poland, and the European section of Russia. The term Россия (Rossija), comes from the Byzantine Greek designation of the Rus', Ρωσσία Rossía—spelled Ρωσία (Rosía pronounced [roˈsia]) in Modern Greek.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Names_of_Rus%27,_Russia_and_...
Using exonyms to determine the "real" name of a place is also a very odd choice.
Australia and Austria
Latvia and Lithuania
South Africa and Africa
You get the gist :)
Latvia and Lithuania
South Africa and Africa
You get the gist :)
Historical region called Russia (Русся), but suffix -sia (-sia) was dropped in Slavic language, because it means this/there: Russia (Русся) -> Rus` sia (Русь ся), Rus` there.
Russia founded by descendants of Russia town, now called Old Russa (Старая Русса), which left their town due to epidemic of plague of Justinian.
Russia founded by descendants of Russia town, now called Old Russa (Старая Русса), which left their town due to epidemic of plague of Justinian.
Russia didn't exist until nearly a thousand years after the plague of Justinian. Unless you just mean the plague?
In either case, Rus comes from the Scandinavians, not from the Slavs.
In either case, Rus comes from the Scandinavians, not from the Slavs.
Canadian here on the ground in Ukraine, on the Eastern side (Kharkiv). The situation is pretty serious as everyone’s talking about war, and I personally am stocking up on non-perishable food items. The prevailing opinion seems to be that Russia is just flexing muscles, but I personally believe a full scale invasion is in the works. The idea that Putin is trying to extract concessions doesn’t make sense to me, because there aren’t many concessions to extract, especially from that young idealistic Zelensky.
But what do I know, read Henry Kissinger: https://www.henryakissinger.com/articles/how-the-ukraine-cri...
But what do I know, read Henry Kissinger: https://www.henryakissinger.com/articles/how-the-ukraine-cri...
Hey, American here, I live in Kyiv.
Things are as tense here as I've ever experienced since I moved here in 2018. Most Ukrainians I know don't think a full-scale invasion is likely, but I think that's just because contemplating the prospect of an escalation of the war with Russia is too unpleasant. I know that the Ukrainian armed forces are taking it seriously, although as far as I know they haven't yet mobilized any reserves.
That said, a lot has changed since 2014. Back then, Ukraine's military was hollowed out by years of neglect and corruption. Ukraine's armed forces have undergone a significant transformation since then, and while I don't think they could hold off the combined forces of Russia's armor, air, and naval assets, they don't have to: they just have to make Russia pay dearly enough for every meter they take that it's not worth it.
To that end, we (the US but also Canada and Great Britain) have done a lot in terms of training and support, and IIRC there are units of Ukrainian Special Forces which have certified as NATO SOF. If I were a Russian tank commander advancing into Ukrainian territory, I'd be very worried about the Javelin anti-tank missile systems Ukraine bought from the US. Ukraine is also operating a pretty advanced Turkish armed UAV platform which could ruin the day of would-be invaders.
I'm not yet at the point where I'm considering leaving Ukraine, but it is a pretty stressful time. However you have to understand that Ukraine has been at war with Russia since 2014; Ukrainian soldiers have continued to fight and die on the contact line in Eastern Ukraine ever since. So to some extent the population here are used to the looming threat of violence from Russia since it never went away. Nonetheless, this feels like an escalation and that worries me.
Things are as tense here as I've ever experienced since I moved here in 2018. Most Ukrainians I know don't think a full-scale invasion is likely, but I think that's just because contemplating the prospect of an escalation of the war with Russia is too unpleasant. I know that the Ukrainian armed forces are taking it seriously, although as far as I know they haven't yet mobilized any reserves.
That said, a lot has changed since 2014. Back then, Ukraine's military was hollowed out by years of neglect and corruption. Ukraine's armed forces have undergone a significant transformation since then, and while I don't think they could hold off the combined forces of Russia's armor, air, and naval assets, they don't have to: they just have to make Russia pay dearly enough for every meter they take that it's not worth it.
To that end, we (the US but also Canada and Great Britain) have done a lot in terms of training and support, and IIRC there are units of Ukrainian Special Forces which have certified as NATO SOF. If I were a Russian tank commander advancing into Ukrainian territory, I'd be very worried about the Javelin anti-tank missile systems Ukraine bought from the US. Ukraine is also operating a pretty advanced Turkish armed UAV platform which could ruin the day of would-be invaders.
I'm not yet at the point where I'm considering leaving Ukraine, but it is a pretty stressful time. However you have to understand that Ukraine has been at war with Russia since 2014; Ukrainian soldiers have continued to fight and die on the contact line in Eastern Ukraine ever since. So to some extent the population here are used to the looming threat of violence from Russia since it never went away. Nonetheless, this feels like an escalation and that worries me.
"on the ground" as in military service or are you living/visiting?
Living and working on a tech startup. Fiance is Ukrainian.
Hello from Kharkiv, article is largely outdated.
Russia invasion consolidated Ukrainians. Only NATO could bring peace to my country. Crimea with Russia returns to its native state, land without much water. That was a reason Crimea was handled to Ukraine, on its balance, it was not "present".
Putin is trying to distract from internal problems — rising prices, peaceful meetings breakdown, his Palace [1], dying in prison opposition leader Navalny. And on top of it Baiden called Putin a killer. He is playing "strong leader" again. Full scale invasion is higly possible, but only because RF government is insane.
[1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ipAnwilMncI
Russia invasion consolidated Ukrainians. Only NATO could bring peace to my country. Crimea with Russia returns to its native state, land without much water. That was a reason Crimea was handled to Ukraine, on its balance, it was not "present".
Putin is trying to distract from internal problems — rising prices, peaceful meetings breakdown, his Palace [1], dying in prison opposition leader Navalny. And on top of it Baiden called Putin a killer. He is playing "strong leader" again. Full scale invasion is higly possible, but only because RF government is insane.
[1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ipAnwilMncI
Hey, given that you're "on the ground", in your opinion, what is the mood there and what do you think is more likely:
- no invasion (flex muscles, drills, go home)
- limited invasion
- full-scale invasion
Lets check, in 2014 there were two cases:
* Crimea invasion — unexpected "brother nation" invasion, brainwashing about Ukrainian fascists, largely pro-Russian population.
* Donbass — brainwashing, traitors in government and police, RF mercenaries and brainwashed Russians [1].
Since then largely people understood that "Russian peace" is war, poverty and crime. Pro-Russian parties popularity plummeted, last incarnation got 10% [2]. I do not think it is possible to reproduce Donbass scenario. And invasion would not be praised.
Last remaining option is forceful occupation. War goal is North Crimean Canal [3] in Kherson Oblast [4].
Overall mood — we have to be ready. No one can predict Russia — it's information autocracy. Putin does anything to improve his rating. Crimea annexation improved his approval rating up to 87%. And it is falling again — poverty, Putins palace, Navalny in jail, COVID deaths, too much to hide without external enemy.
I hope it is flexing muscles. Preparation is too obvious, compare with Crimea occupation. Yet we have to be ready for "Russian speaking Ukrainians" from nearby Russian cities. It could happen again. In such case I would be in a city center.
[1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M7NSj8aRWao
[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opposition_Platform_%E2%80%94_...
[3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Crimean_Canal
[4] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kherson_Oblast
* Crimea invasion — unexpected "brother nation" invasion, brainwashing about Ukrainian fascists, largely pro-Russian population.
* Donbass — brainwashing, traitors in government and police, RF mercenaries and brainwashed Russians [1].
Since then largely people understood that "Russian peace" is war, poverty and crime. Pro-Russian parties popularity plummeted, last incarnation got 10% [2]. I do not think it is possible to reproduce Donbass scenario. And invasion would not be praised.
Last remaining option is forceful occupation. War goal is North Crimean Canal [3] in Kherson Oblast [4].
Overall mood — we have to be ready. No one can predict Russia — it's information autocracy. Putin does anything to improve his rating. Crimea annexation improved his approval rating up to 87%. And it is falling again — poverty, Putins palace, Navalny in jail, COVID deaths, too much to hide without external enemy.
I hope it is flexing muscles. Preparation is too obvious, compare with Crimea occupation. Yet we have to be ready for "Russian speaking Ukrainians" from nearby Russian cities. It could happen again. In such case I would be in a city center.
[1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M7NSj8aRWao
[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opposition_Platform_%E2%80%94_...
[3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Crimean_Canal
[4] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kherson_Oblast
> Yet we have to be ready for "Russian speaking Ukrainians" from nearby Russian cities
Yes this is an important point. Russia's official position to this day is that they have not invaded Donbass, and that the conflict there is a civil war. That's transparently false propaganda, and extensive evidence exists of specific identifiable Russian military units operating in Ukraine, but it's nonetheless the Russian narrative. If they escalate further it would not surprise me if it were "Russian speaking Ukrainians" again; Russian operatives furthering Russian interests using Russian equipment and Russian resources, but officially deniable by Russia.
Another favored narrative is that they are protecting Russian-speaking peoples from oppression, and that these oppressed peoples want to be under Russian rule. That worked to some extent in 2014, and I knew many educated and prosperous Ukrainians who believed that propaganda. It will be a harder sell today, as it's very obvious that seven years of "freedom" in Donbass has destroyed the region and made life worse for the Ukrainians who still live there. But, again, I don't think Putin cares if the rest of the world believe that propaganda; the target audience is the Russian people.
Yes this is an important point. Russia's official position to this day is that they have not invaded Donbass, and that the conflict there is a civil war. That's transparently false propaganda, and extensive evidence exists of specific identifiable Russian military units operating in Ukraine, but it's nonetheless the Russian narrative. If they escalate further it would not surprise me if it were "Russian speaking Ukrainians" again; Russian operatives furthering Russian interests using Russian equipment and Russian resources, but officially deniable by Russia.
Another favored narrative is that they are protecting Russian-speaking peoples from oppression, and that these oppressed peoples want to be under Russian rule. That worked to some extent in 2014, and I knew many educated and prosperous Ukrainians who believed that propaganda. It will be a harder sell today, as it's very obvious that seven years of "freedom" in Donbass has destroyed the region and made life worse for the Ukrainians who still live there. But, again, I don't think Putin cares if the rest of the world believe that propaganda; the target audience is the Russian people.
Kharkiv and the T-34 factory that built the tanks which stopped the Nazis from invading Moscow is one of the most remarkable stories in history. The timeliness of Mikhal Koshkin’s armor column can not be understated. This is especially interesting because the T-34 platform was invented by J. Walter Christie, an American! The story has got it all for a major blockbuster. Its worth reading about Christie’s life.
Haven't the Ukrainians diverted important rivers upstream on Crimea? Undoing that could be the concession Putin is hoping for.
no. they did block water in artificial canal.
hmm... can you leave?
From the guideline: "Otherwise please use the original title, unless it is misleading or linkbait; don't editorialize". [1]
The original article title is "Is Russia going to war with Ukraine and other questions"
[1] https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html
The original article title is "Is Russia going to war with Ukraine and other questions"
[1] https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html
Aye, fixed.
The more important guideline there is really 'Don't post regular news articles, for the most part'
Ukraine is important in tech industry, given crazy amount of outsourcing and strong tech sector which are mostly american companies (e.g. Lyft, Snapchat, Oracle, Google, Ring)
Everything is important in some way, HN is just not a good place to discuss regular news. As the guidelines mention.
Reading between the lines: Western Intelligence agencies are gearing up for a war with Russia.
Western intelligence agencies must have really upped their HUMINT game if they can park some 100,000 Russian regulars and heavy armor on the border.
Selective reporting and editorial bias, is what I'm referring to.
Selective reporting on what? Russia has been massing troops on the border.
The reporting is fine, at this point it’s not a question if Russia would invade the Ukraine they already have, the question is would the west stand up to them with this time or not.
The reporting is fine, at this point it’s not a question if Russia would invade the Ukraine they already have, the question is would the west stand up to them with this time or not.
Ukraine threatens to invade DPR and LPR. Russia gathers forces to scare Ukraine and to prevent that invasion. For me it's pretty simple. War is unlikely, because Ukraine won't risk it. Russia does not want to invade Ukraine either, because it's just don't make sense, at least right now, when they want to finish Nord Stream 2.
> Ukraine threatens to invade DPR and LPR
That's what Russian propaganda says, but it has no basis in reality.
That's what Russian propaganda says, but it has no basis in reality.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-56678665
It's not Russian propaganda, it's Russian officials.
It's not Russian propaganda, it's Russian officials.
Is there any difference?
Propaganda presumes lies. Official position is just that: official position. Kremlin believes that Ukraine is preparing to war. There are reports about Ukraine forces gathering up, so those beliefs probably are justified.
Is there any presumption that Russia politicians are not lying? They are the spokesperson of propaganda.
There's not, just like there's not any presumption that BBC reports about Russian forces are not lying. So one should weight all the information and choose which one to believe. I expressed my point of view which might be wrong. There's absolutely no reason right now for Russia to invade Ukraine. They had plenty of time before. They have to finish Nord Stream 2, so they absolutely don't want to impose any additional sanctions on themselves. While US have all the incentive to break bonds between Russia and Germany and to prevent Nord Stream 2, so they commanded Zelensky to start a war, hoping that Russia will join it and Europe will be forced to impose additional sanctions.
Russia could have attacked before. Russia could attack later, when Nord Stream 2 is finished and Germany is on hook and won't go anywhere. But right now it's just the wrong time.
Russia could have attacked before. Russia could attack later, when Nord Stream 2 is finished and Germany is on hook and won't go anywhere. But right now it's just the wrong time.
> US ... commanded Zelensky to start a war
Do you think the US has such influence over _any_ country to command it to go to war with another country?
> They have to finish Nord Stream 2, so they absolutely don't want to impose any additional sanctions on themselves.
One would think so, yes; but on the other hand, hasn't Russia annoyed the Western world enough over the last 6-7 years, with Syria, Skripal, or Navalny, despite its obvious need to finish Nord Stream?
Do you think the US has such influence over _any_ country to command it to go to war with another country?
> They have to finish Nord Stream 2, so they absolutely don't want to impose any additional sanctions on themselves.
One would think so, yes; but on the other hand, hasn't Russia annoyed the Western world enough over the last 6-7 years, with Syria, Skripal, or Navalny, despite its obvious need to finish Nord Stream?
> Do you think the US has such influence over _any_ country to command it to go to war with another country?
They definitely have enough influence to suggest doing so. I remember Victorya Nuland openly supporting Ukraine revolution by physically being there, so obviously they supported them financially. And when US pays someone dollars, they expect something in return. Ukraine officials promised to their people that Ukraine will join NATO, so that's another leverage.
> One would think so, yes; but on the other hand, hasn't Russia annoyed the Western world enough over the last 6-7 years, with Syria, Skripal, or Navalny, despite its obvious need to finish Nord Stream?
I don't fully trust Skripal and Navalny stories, so that's more of western propaganda trying to paint Russia's black from my PoV. Not sure about Syria, probably there were enough geopolitical reasons for that.
They definitely have enough influence to suggest doing so. I remember Victorya Nuland openly supporting Ukraine revolution by physically being there, so obviously they supported them financially. And when US pays someone dollars, they expect something in return. Ukraine officials promised to their people that Ukraine will join NATO, so that's another leverage.
> One would think so, yes; but on the other hand, hasn't Russia annoyed the Western world enough over the last 6-7 years, with Syria, Skripal, or Navalny, despite its obvious need to finish Nord Stream?
I don't fully trust Skripal and Navalny stories, so that's more of western propaganda trying to paint Russia's black from my PoV. Not sure about Syria, probably there were enough geopolitical reasons for that.
> I remember Victorya Nuland openly supporting Ukraine revolution by physically being there, so obviously they supported them financially
Oh yes. There's no doubt the US is supporting Ukraine, at least militarily. They make no secret of it. But it's one thing to ask for, say, access to trade or to natural resources in return, and it's quite another to demand that receiving party commit to something that can potentially turn into a suicide.
Oh yes. There's no doubt the US is supporting Ukraine, at least militarily. They make no secret of it. But it's one thing to ask for, say, access to trade or to natural resources in return, and it's quite another to demand that receiving party commit to something that can potentially turn into a suicide.
Do you think Zelensky is so stupid to star the war with Russia just because he is told to(no reason to believe this, probably russian propaganda again). He would end up like arab countries when they tried to destroy Israel... stub of state left. The reason is probably not war but russia alwyas has some reasons to send troops. Invade something here. Cause fog of war there. And do some other stuff. Maybe they are trying to hide that thair vaccine is total scam. Or they are blackmailing ukraine. Putin is in trouble so he is flexin like a school bully. If he invades Ukraine he is done for the west. Also when russia says that Ukraine started. It should be taken with the same seriousness as when Hitler claimed that Poland started.
As I already said, I don't think that Zelensky will start the war. He's just doing his thing and Russia's doing theirs thing and that's all. He could do that if NATO would support him with army, but they did not support him for obvious reasons and that's about it.
There's a difference?
It doesn’t matter what Ukraine is attempting to do, and it wouldn’t be an invasion it’s their territory.
It's not their territory though, not for some years now. That is the reality of it.
It is their territory. Occupied by Russia. Ilegally. Period.
It is managed by Russia so it is Russia, now. The same way Ireland one day was administered from London and now is not (excl. Northern Ireland). The rest is emotional talk.
The difference is that the while world on the fact that Ireland is self governed. Almost no one agrees that Criema is Russian.
I don't think that is true. I think most people would agree the people in Crimea understand they speak Russian, have a Russian passport, can travel inside Russia, pay taxes to the Russian government, their children are schooled in Russian topics. Culturally the majority probably feel quite Russian, or as Russian as any other "republic" of the Russian "federation".
There are countries with less cultural and linguistic similarity, for instance Catalonia comes to mind, yet there is also the general agreement that Catalonia is part of Spain and not fully self governed, much less governed by any other country.
There are countries with less cultural and linguistic similarity, for instance Catalonia comes to mind, yet there is also the general agreement that Catalonia is part of Spain and not fully self governed, much less governed by any other country.
Well it is more of... Hungary takes tanks and goes to Romania because there is large hungarian population and aquires some of their land with 50% romanians and if they leave they take their property. They started giving hungarian passports left and right in the past... with some kind of hope of leverage on other countries. Not as mas or menos independent community that wants(at least some part) to leave as is happening in spain.
The situation in these areas is substantially more complicated than that. They're part of Ukraine's internationally recognized territory, yes, but they seceded in response to a 2014 overthrow (very arguably a coup) of the democratically elected president they supported. So there are good reasons that a Ukranian military takeover would be seen as aggression.
I can't understand how some smart people still sympathize Russia and say it acts only for defense. Russia has made the first annexation in Europe since WW2 and effectively control another part of Ukraine.
Right now it looks like Russian logic is that every free person in the world is a potential threat to Russia. Because threat is anything that you don't control.
Right now it looks like Russian logic is that every free person in the world is a potential threat to Russia. Because threat is anything that you don't control.
It's more tricky than it seems. For example, do you support the right of people to self-determine? Should Scotland be allowed to secede from the UK and join the EU?
While elections in Crimea were clearly not "fair" and the method by which it "joined" Russia was nebulous, the peninsula is absolutely Russian-speaking. It's pretty likely that the population would choose to join Russia, if they'd been given the chance.
Not defending Russia here, but as I said, it's complex.
While elections in Crimea were clearly not "fair" and the method by which it "joined" Russia was nebulous, the peninsula is absolutely Russian-speaking. It's pretty likely that the population would choose to join Russia, if they'd been given the chance.
Not defending Russia here, but as I said, it's complex.
I am Russian-speaking. But also Ukrainian, English and a bit German. Is this a reason to occupy my country by GB?
Please stop spreading lies. Scotland self determination is peaceful. Crimea had its parliament. No one cared to vote until occupation and brainwashing by RF controlled propaganda spreading awful lies about Ukraine.
And there are no fair elections in Russia.
Please stop spreading lies. Scotland self determination is peaceful. Crimea had its parliament. No one cared to vote until occupation and brainwashing by RF controlled propaganda spreading awful lies about Ukraine.
And there are no fair elections in Russia.
"Right now it looks like Russian logic is that every free person in the world is a potential threat to Russia. Because threat is anything that you don't control."
Don't you mean "American logic"? If not, have you looked at a political and military map in the last couple of years, as well as paid attention to the changes?
Don't you mean "American logic"? If not, have you looked at a political and military map in the last couple of years, as well as paid attention to the changes?
> Russia has made the first annexation in Europe
What an interesting choice of regions to single out.
What an interesting choice of regions to single out.
Did the people of Crimea want to be in Russia or the Ukraine?
Many Germans in the Sudetenland were happy to become part of Germany in WW2, that doesn't mean anything. That was one of Hitler's excuses for invading and annexing early on. He took it too far (in the eyes of the allies) when he invaded Poland, though the Polish Corridor was formerly German as well.
Does "what the people of Crimea wanted" change whether or not Russia annexed the territory against the wishes of the current owners of the territory and against international law that Russia claims to respect?
It suggests that Russia isn't planning to annex "every free person in the world" as the parent comment suggested. They're taking blatant, aggressive advantage of the Ukrainian Revolution to expand their power and influence, and that's undoubtedly a bad thing to do, but I don't think it indicates any substantial risk to other countries in the region.
Transnistria in Moldova (1991), South Ossetia in Georgia (2008), Crimea and Donbass in Ukraine (2014). They've embraced USSR, claim to return territories, its representatives claims to bomb West. No worries?
Well, worries about what? I'd certainly be worried if I were in charge of a post-Soviet state with unresolved separatist movements, but I'm not sure that's really an issue the international community can solve. It's not as though these regions would be safe and peaceful if Russia weren't taking advantage.
Are you trolling? Insurgence and indifference, that's what happened in Donbass and Crimea. From start to end it is RF controlled operation.
No one in their mind would ask for "Russian peace", yet they are going to kill us. It is not possible to separate Russian speaking Ukrainians, there are no borders. I speak Russian, Ukrainian, English. For sure my city would be destroyed.
RF claims basically every country with Russian speaking population. Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Belarus. Germany maybe? Their politicians claims dominance over the world. They blame West on every problem, and people believe.
No one in their mind would ask for "Russian peace", yet they are going to kill us. It is not possible to separate Russian speaking Ukrainians, there are no borders. I speak Russian, Ukrainian, English. For sure my city would be destroyed.
RF claims basically every country with Russian speaking population. Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Belarus. Germany maybe? Their politicians claims dominance over the world. They blame West on every problem, and people believe.
We don't know. They didn't have a free and fair plebiscite.
Russians want to live in Crimea, so they packed up peoples of Crimea and sent them to Siberia. Can you travel to Siberia and ask them, please?
I bet they would prefer to be a part USA, France, or Japan at least, if not brainwashed.
What's the answer to this question?
There were definitely some Crimeans who preferred to be part of Russia. But I don't think the referendum was free or fair. And even if we could say that 51% of them genuinely wanted to secede from Ukraine and join Russia, it doesn't change the fact that Russia annexed Crimea first, and then, lo and behold, the Crimean people wanted Russian rule all along. I don't think there's any way to square what happened with international law.
There's another devious tactic Russia uses which is IMHO even worse than the bogus referendum: They've started issuing Russian passports to Ukrainian citizens in the part of Eastern Ukraine that is controlled by the "independent republics" which are de facto controlled by Russia. So now, Russia can say, truthfully, that there are many Russian citizens in Donbass, and justify military escalation there as a purely defensive act responding to Ukrainian abuses of Russian citizens. Meanwhile, life in Donbass gets worse and worse, Russian passport or not.
There's another devious tactic Russia uses which is IMHO even worse than the bogus referendum: They've started issuing Russian passports to Ukrainian citizens in the part of Eastern Ukraine that is controlled by the "independent republics" which are de facto controlled by Russia. So now, Russia can say, truthfully, that there are many Russian citizens in Donbass, and justify military escalation there as a purely defensive act responding to Ukrainian abuses of Russian citizens. Meanwhile, life in Donbass gets worse and worse, Russian passport or not.
If you really want to know just go there and ask around. But make sure you do not use your google account or log in to github while there.
I figured someone like Pew would've run a poll there but perhaps it's too dangerous to do so?
Any poll is subject to influences, cheating, biases, etc, etc... Just spend a week there during not so high season, so you meet mostly locals, and speak to some random people. It takes some effort probably but in my believe it is the only way to make at least a little informed opinion on any topic.
Russia is information autocracy state. TV controlled by state for more than 20 years. Average Russian knows all sort of weird things, basically everything that helps Putin. West is evil, Putin is the only choice, Ukraine is fascist state, Russian is superior culture.
Liberals are better, yet their culture is based on occupation, it brings joy. Annexation of Crimea have raised Putin rating to 87%.
Liberals are better, yet their culture is based on occupation, it brings joy. Annexation of Crimea have raised Putin rating to 87%.
If 55% wanted what about the 45%?
After 7 years of war with Ukraine, Russians are preparing to war with Ukraine.
Goood! Now you noticed that the article is at least partially a bullshit. But I wonder what conclusions you'll make?
I live in Ukraine. After 7 years of proxy war RF prepares for open war.
There are plenty of facts. RF controls occupied territories, "republic" leaders claimed many times it would be impossible without RF supply, mercenaries and army. They've written books on the matter. It is not a secret.
There are plenty of facts. RF controls occupied territories, "republic" leaders claimed many times it would be impossible without RF supply, mercenaries and army. They've written books on the matter. It is not a secret.
RF is out of money, runway is too short, crash will happen soon. Germany will not be able to help RF.
I highly recommend this Lawfare podcast episode that talks about the Ukraine issue. Alex Vindman is literally an expert on the topic.
The Lawfare Podcast: Alex Vindman on the Escalation in Ukraine
https://www.lawfareblog.com/lawfare-podcast-alex-vindman-esc...
The Lawfare Podcast: Alex Vindman on the Escalation in Ukraine
https://www.lawfareblog.com/lawfare-podcast-alex-vindman-esc...
Insurgence would have been crashed if not RF army [1]. RF military responsible for passenger plane [2]. I am from Ukraine, our army protects us from invasion. We've seen "Russian peace" in occupied territories, that's slow death.
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russo-Ukrainian_War
[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malaysia_Airlines_Flight_17
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russo-Ukrainian_War
[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malaysia_Airlines_Flight_17
If you are a Russian "president" and have domestic troubles like a crappy economy and lots of Covid, always remember the 34th rule of acquisition "War is good for business".
Until inevitably people start asking why they spent all that money, time and lives on it and where's their cut of the spoils.
What lots of covid??? Is there some new source of information I'm not aware of?
> The country’s official coronavirus death toll is 102,649. But at least 300,000 more people died last year during the pandemic than were reported in Russia’s most widely cited official statistics.
362,302 Total Excess Deaths
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/10/world/europe/covid-russia...
362,302 Total Excess Deaths
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/10/world/europe/covid-russia...
That is interesting. Very reasonable approach. The only problem is that they failed to provide the link to the materials they used in the study. And I don't see death rate statistics for 2020, only for 2019 and before. Publication calendar states that the nearset publication is expected on May, 15.
I have not checked source but it's claimed around the world. There is a link [1] in another article [2]. RF propaganda would react on false claims, silence means it is correct. So far its response is "I can't compare numbers" [3].
[1] https://rosstat.gov.ru/storage/mediabank/TwbjciZH/edn12-2020...
[2] https://www.rbc.ru/economics/08/02/2021/602132e19a7947073f7d...
[3] https://lenta.ru/news/2021/04/12/nyt_kreml/
[1] https://rosstat.gov.ru/storage/mediabank/TwbjciZH/edn12-2020...
[2] https://www.rbc.ru/economics/08/02/2021/602132e19a7947073f7d...
[3] https://lenta.ru/news/2021/04/12/nyt_kreml/
[deleted]
If you are president of RF and caused Covid-19 epidemic (search for "blast at Vector lab"), the most rational move is to increase tension and then try to trade peace for amnesty.
An actual war with the thousands of troops they're moving? I don't know, I hope not.
Surely Russian leaders remember how the war in Afghanistan affected the USSR. It was a massive waste of money and resources, and it played a big role in destabilizing the whole regime.
This would be similar, imo, if NATO backs Ukraine. Russia will just waste money, destroy lives and whatever prosperity the region had, for little to no return. Maybe they get two more republics into the federation.
They're just pushing Ukraine, Georgia into NATO and everyone else away from them. What a sad state of affairs.
Surely Russian leaders remember how the war in Afghanistan affected the USSR. It was a massive waste of money and resources, and it played a big role in destabilizing the whole regime.
This would be similar, imo, if NATO backs Ukraine. Russia will just waste money, destroy lives and whatever prosperity the region had, for little to no return. Maybe they get two more republics into the federation.
They're just pushing Ukraine, Georgia into NATO and everyone else away from them. What a sad state of affairs.
I wonder how much Crimea running out of water has to do with this military build up.
Caspian report has a good video on the water situation https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Aqq8clIceys
Caspian report has a good video on the water situation https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Aqq8clIceys
The NATO part seems curious. I was under the impression that NATO does not generally accept membership from nations that don't currently control their claimed territory, and that part of the reason Russia seems to like biting off small chunks of neighboring countries was thought to be that those nations couldn't reasonably join NATO as long as the Russians were there.
There is a precedent - Cyprus and North Cyprus which is controlled by Turkey.
Not commenting on Russia vs. Ukraine here, but I wanted to point out this somewhat misleading line. Novorossiya is the name of that historical region going back to the 1700s. The way it's written by the BBC, it sounds like Russia is just inventing their own new entity from nothing.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Novorossiya