Germany’s current Covid-19 crisis is mainly driven by the unvaccinated(rocs.hu-berlin.de)
rocs.hu-berlin.de
Germany’s current Covid-19 crisis is mainly driven by the unvaccinated
https://rocs.hu-berlin.de/news/role_of_vaccinated/
30 comments
I think it’s actually the kind of simplistic analysis you are referring to that got us into this mess. If we would have put a bit more belief in the epidemic models and acted accordingly from the beginning, we would be a lot better off right now.
But even now, two years into the pandemic, the “people” and policy still seem to be unable to take any action until we see very widespread disastrous effects that were predicted weeks or months in advance. Even now, people still don’t care about an increase from 10 to 20 cases (or any other metric) and won’t take action until they see cases going from 1,000 to 2,000.
Remember the ridicule Merkel faced when she told journalists in summer 2020 that models showed that Germany would see a huge second wave by fall? That just seemed completely nuts to those journalists at the time given the very low number of cases at the time, even if there was already exponential growth again at that moment.
But even now, two years into the pandemic, the “people” and policy still seem to be unable to take any action until we see very widespread disastrous effects that were predicted weeks or months in advance. Even now, people still don’t care about an increase from 10 to 20 cases (or any other metric) and won’t take action until they see cases going from 1,000 to 2,000.
Remember the ridicule Merkel faced when she told journalists in summer 2020 that models showed that Germany would see a huge second wave by fall? That just seemed completely nuts to those journalists at the time given the very low number of cases at the time, even if there was already exponential growth again at that moment.
I certainly remember how the first death toll estimation by neil fergusson were off by (at least) an order of magnitude, and completely changed european countries attitudes from being careful to being hysterical.
I don't think much has changed...
I don't think much has changed...
Epidemic modeling has been quite accurate at predicting this current wave in Germany.
It's been obvious that covid is seasonal for a long time now. The winter season is here, the covid wave is here. No need for complex math models. BTW, funny how those models usually ignore seasonality, natural immunity or quarantine on symptoms, i.e. basic respiratory infectious disease common sense.
Here's yours truly, cautioning that 'the coming winter risks being brutal', 58 days ago: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=28700532
Here's yours truly, cautioning that 'the coming winter risks being brutal', 58 days ago: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=28700532
Country-specific predictions are a bit more detail than "covid is seasonal", and at least in the models relevant here percentage of people with immunity and (quarantine and other) policies obviously play a role. Are they perfect? No, but "models are pointless and only give trivial results" is too easy.
Do you happen to have 2 months old predictions of the models you find non-trivial? My sense is that this is weather vs. climate prediction. They may be able to do a somewhat reasonable job a few days ahead, but beyond that it's all about common sense, i.e. similar to the historical record, as limited as it may be. They probably constantly retrofit the models with current data, which makes it look like the models where accurate all along.
Common sense can also work in the short term. E.g. Austria (and Netherlands) seem to have crested the cases wave [1], which I predicted a 3 days ago by looking at the death rates plateauing, and noticing that the same pattern happened in US southern states and BG/RO [2]. I wonder what said models were saying 3 days ago, if such models exist for AT/NL and if they happen to publish their historical predictions.
[1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29334288
[2] https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explor...
Common sense can also work in the short term. E.g. Austria (and Netherlands) seem to have crested the cases wave [1], which I predicted a 3 days ago by looking at the death rates plateauing, and noticing that the same pattern happened in US southern states and BG/RO [2]. I wonder what said models were saying 3 days ago, if such models exist for AT/NL and if they happen to publish their historical predictions.
[1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29334288
[2] https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explor...
[deleted]
In British Columbia as of Friday, “91.0% (4,219,790) of eligible people 12 and older in B.C. have received their first dose of COVID-19 vaccine and 87.6% (4,060,193) have received their second dose” and “Past two weeks, cases hospitalized per 100,000 population after adjusting for age: Not vaccinated: 38.3; Fully vaccinated: 2.0”
If this new variant of concern is highly lethal, I expect that post-pandemic we will have far fewer people around who reject facts and simple math. Maybe then we can solve some of the other crises facing this world.
If this new variant of concern is highly lethal, I expect that post-pandemic we will have far fewer people around who reject facts and simple math. Maybe then we can solve some of the other crises facing this world.
Someone should invent a vaccine that can spread through air like COVID itself
>:)
>:)
Seems way more risky to the individual, however the individuals seem to have zero regard for the whole, so this will happen.
Overdoses…
"... incidence started growing exponentially in October 2021 with about 41% of recorded new cases aged twelve or above being symptomatic breakthrough infections, presumably also contributing to the dynamics. At the time, it (i) remains elusive how significant this contribution is and (ii) whether targeted non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) may stop the amplification of the ongoing crisis."
So despite just over half of adults being vaccinated, and just under half of new cases (in adults) being vaccinated "breakthrough" cases, they estimate that it's the unvaccinated spreading covid? Makes no sense unless they're blaming the kids and lumping in with the unvaccinated.
So despite just over half of adults being vaccinated, and just under half of new cases (in adults) being vaccinated "breakthrough" cases, they estimate that it's the unvaccinated spreading covid? Makes no sense unless they're blaming the kids and lumping in with the unvaccinated.
Well, if it’s really only among the unvaccinated - let them live with their decision.
If I made the choice to not get it, and this is happening with it spreading everywhere, I am continuously choosing the risk over getting the vaccine. Everyone else who has the vaccine shouldn’t be affected by my choice.
If I made the choice to not get it, and this is happening with it spreading everywhere, I am continuously choosing the risk over getting the vaccine. Everyone else who has the vaccine shouldn’t be affected by my choice.
Everybody else is affected as well, as unvaccinated people fill up ICUs which aren't available for non-COVID related cases anymore.
Fair enough, but what are you going to do? Round them up in camps and forcibly inject them at this point?
If the hospitals need to set limits to ensure balanced distribution of resources - the unvaccinated should be alerted and then the “hospital rationing” begins.
If the hospitals need to set limits to ensure balanced distribution of resources - the unvaccinated should be alerted and then the “hospital rationing” begins.
> Fair enough, but what are you going to do?
Isolate them away from the population. We've already started to mandate vaccination for work in many places in US, mask mandates, etc.
If the area gets hot enough, then we lock down. We've been doing it already.
We can't force anyone to take the vaccine but we don't have to accept them.
Why do you think there has been so many protests in US and other countries because of the said mask/vaccine mandates?
Everyone's action has consequences, choosing not to get vaccinated does not mean they should be free from any consequences; their consequences are the isolation policies.
> If the hospitals need to set limits to ensure balanced distribution of resources - the unvaccinated should be alerted and then the “hospital rationing” begins.
They already have and not only that, they're losing a lot of hospital staff as well. A lot of hospitals have stopped or postponed surgeries, dealing with long lines of people in the ERs waiting a long time.
Remember, hospitals have the duty to save everyone, they should never be in the situation where they should start to deny help to everyone coming into ER.
The whole point of the original lockdowns was to "flatten the curve" where the hospitals can serve everyone as they come in.
Isolate them away from the population. We've already started to mandate vaccination for work in many places in US, mask mandates, etc.
If the area gets hot enough, then we lock down. We've been doing it already.
We can't force anyone to take the vaccine but we don't have to accept them.
Why do you think there has been so many protests in US and other countries because of the said mask/vaccine mandates?
Everyone's action has consequences, choosing not to get vaccinated does not mean they should be free from any consequences; their consequences are the isolation policies.
> If the hospitals need to set limits to ensure balanced distribution of resources - the unvaccinated should be alerted and then the “hospital rationing” begins.
They already have and not only that, they're losing a lot of hospital staff as well. A lot of hospitals have stopped or postponed surgeries, dealing with long lines of people in the ERs waiting a long time.
Remember, hospitals have the duty to save everyone, they should never be in the situation where they should start to deny help to everyone coming into ER.
The whole point of the original lockdowns was to "flatten the curve" where the hospitals can serve everyone as they come in.
> Fair enough, but what are you going to do? Round them up in camps and forcibly inject them at this point?
Given that up until very recently there was quite little in way of actual restrictions on unvaccinated in Germany, this is really just a false dichotomy.
Given that up until very recently there was quite little in way of actual restrictions on unvaccinated in Germany, this is really just a false dichotomy.
> if it’s really only among the unvaccinated
Where do you get that from? The article certainly doesn't say that. (And even if it were, the follow-up effects like load on the medical system do impact everyone, so unless you opt-out of that too your decision affects everyone)
Where do you get that from? The article certainly doesn't say that. (And even if it were, the follow-up effects like load on the medical system do impact everyone, so unless you opt-out of that too your decision affects everyone)
The title of the article says it’s mostly the unvaccinated.
"mainly driven by" and "only among" is really not the same thing.
It is not. The article clearly stated right away in the abstract section:
> While the major- ity (about 65%) of the German population were fully vaccinated, incidence started growing exponentially in October 2021 with about 41% of recorded new cases aged twelve or above being symptomatic breakthrough infections, presumably also contributing to the dynamics.
Breakthrough infections means infections after the vaccinations. Vaccinations is not a cure nor a prevention, it helps tune the body to fight better against the virus.
Vaccinated folks can still get sick with COVID, they just have a much lower risk of dying but they can still have long covid symptoms.
Second, this article is not talking about people getting infected, it is talking about how this virus spreads more by unvaccinated people over vaccinated folks.
Your choice has an impact on the evolution of the virus by getting infected or allowing it to spread among more hosts.
The more hosts infected, the faster the rate of mutation with greater success of spreading and severity or mortality of the disease. Where did you think the Delta variant came from? It wouldn't have evolved on its own if there weren't enough sick folks.
By allowing more mutations, it can in fact evolve to the point that our current vaccines will not work against it. This is where it affects everyone in the world, and yes, your choice affects everyone; that is absolutely possible.
This is not a choice against getting vaccinated or not, this is a fight against the virus itself to prevent it from evolving into a worse one.
By not getting vaccinated, you are choosing to be a host and giving the virus a chance to be worse; while fighting against yourself and your family and friends.
> While the major- ity (about 65%) of the German population were fully vaccinated, incidence started growing exponentially in October 2021 with about 41% of recorded new cases aged twelve or above being symptomatic breakthrough infections, presumably also contributing to the dynamics.
Breakthrough infections means infections after the vaccinations. Vaccinations is not a cure nor a prevention, it helps tune the body to fight better against the virus.
Vaccinated folks can still get sick with COVID, they just have a much lower risk of dying but they can still have long covid symptoms.
Second, this article is not talking about people getting infected, it is talking about how this virus spreads more by unvaccinated people over vaccinated folks.
Your choice has an impact on the evolution of the virus by getting infected or allowing it to spread among more hosts.
The more hosts infected, the faster the rate of mutation with greater success of spreading and severity or mortality of the disease. Where did you think the Delta variant came from? It wouldn't have evolved on its own if there weren't enough sick folks.
By allowing more mutations, it can in fact evolve to the point that our current vaccines will not work against it. This is where it affects everyone in the world, and yes, your choice affects everyone; that is absolutely possible.
This is not a choice against getting vaccinated or not, this is a fight against the virus itself to prevent it from evolving into a worse one.
By not getting vaccinated, you are choosing to be a host and giving the virus a chance to be worse; while fighting against yourself and your family and friends.
You want to know how many people an unvaccinated person can contaminate ? Well, that's easy: measure the virus load difference between vax & non vax, as well as the time it's still in one person's body.
That's biology, not rocket trajectory dynamics. You won't solve the problem just by looking at numbers and slopes.