Crypto Theses for 2022 [pdf](messari.io)
messari.io
Crypto Theses for 2022 [pdf]
https://messari.io/pdf/messari-report-crypto-theses-for-2022.pdf
57 comments
I think Vite (https://www.vite.org/) aims to do something like this
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- Read 3 pages and Balaji was mentioned 6 times
- Top 10 crypto people to watch is mostly VCs, ok
- Links to some big claims are direct links to tweets
- "It’s inaccurate to call Tether a fraud."
- TIL: Balaji backed Worldcoin (Worldcoin is the retina-scaning dystopia Sam Altman crypto startup)
- They call OHM an unpegged stablecoin, but it's actually a ponzi: "However, judging by the number of forks it has spawned, OlympusDAO may be the year’s most important new project, and non-pegged stablecoins may be the best bet this industry has when it comes to de-pegging from the US dollar." Wow, let's see how that statement will age...
- Have I mentioned that Balaji is cool?
Actually, it's pretty entertaining to read.
- Top 10 crypto people to watch is mostly VCs, ok
- Links to some big claims are direct links to tweets
- "It’s inaccurate to call Tether a fraud."
- TIL: Balaji backed Worldcoin (Worldcoin is the retina-scaning dystopia Sam Altman crypto startup)
- They call OHM an unpegged stablecoin, but it's actually a ponzi: "However, judging by the number of forks it has spawned, OlympusDAO may be the year’s most important new project, and non-pegged stablecoins may be the best bet this industry has when it comes to de-pegging from the US dollar." Wow, let's see how that statement will age...
- Have I mentioned that Balaji is cool?
Actually, it's pretty entertaining to read.
For reference, Balaji is the guy who promised a massive project to put bitcoin miners in all of your household appliances so they could get bitcoins to make microtransactions with. This was somehow pitched as both desirable and possible, two things which is most certainly wasn't.
Having raised large amounts of money for this, he then proceeded to deliver absolutely nothing except an outdated mining chip duct-taped to a Raspberry Pi, and then pivoted to... paying people to answer surveys?
Everyone in the cryptocurrency sphere thinks he is a genius and visionary.
Having raised large amounts of money for this, he then proceeded to deliver absolutely nothing except an outdated mining chip duct-taped to a Raspberry Pi, and then pivoted to... paying people to answer surveys?
Everyone in the cryptocurrency sphere thinks he is a genius and visionary.
oh yeah, amazing how quickly everyone forgot about 21.com and the vaporware kleptocurrency-mining toasters Balaji Bullshitivasan somehow (claimed to) raise $100MM+ to develop and market. Even roped in Qualcomm, though what their role was, nobody seemed to know or care.
Where did all that vaporized money go and why aren't there a dozen lawsuits on his back from angry, defrauded investors?
Where did all that vaporized money go and why aren't there a dozen lawsuits on his back from angry, defrauded investors?
Can confirm. But hey Peter Thiel then recommended him to Trump for like some government positions.
Everybody's origin story in crypto is criminality
My origin story was being a nerdy kid interested in how I could turn compute power into magic internet money. Hardly criminal, wouldn't you say?
I was generally refering to the people running the projects and selling tokens
Were you paying for the energy you used?
I already feel sorry for the future historians who are going to have to parse thousands of broken Twitter threads when they study this stuff.
I think the report is pretty good. It has an obvious bias towards crypto/web3 being great but when you put so much money into it I suppose it kinda has to be that way.
As someone who sorta accepts some parts of the crypto narrative and use it on a daily basis the chapter about NFTs just does not make sense to me. All these people high on play-to-earn games and buying non existant land in a game/virtual place that doesn't really yet exist. The world just isn't there yet, this is a classic overhype situation and will have to go through years of winter before maybe actually working.
Could you see virtual land being worth something in a world where the Ready Player One Oasis exists? Yes sure.. but we're so far from that and I think a lot of these finance guys don't understand the gaming/technical challenges to get there.
As someone who sorta accepts some parts of the crypto narrative and use it on a daily basis the chapter about NFTs just does not make sense to me. All these people high on play-to-earn games and buying non existant land in a game/virtual place that doesn't really yet exist. The world just isn't there yet, this is a classic overhype situation and will have to go through years of winter before maybe actually working.
Could you see virtual land being worth something in a world where the Ready Player One Oasis exists? Yes sure.. but we're so far from that and I think a lot of these finance guys don't understand the gaming/technical challenges to get there.
I agree that play-to-earn is still very early, but there are several projects in the space making significant progress towards making it a reality.
I view investing in these projects no differently than my TSLA positions. Over hyped for sure, but the potential upside is massive and I am unwilling to sit on the sidelines.
Right now I am active in a few communities and it’s been a lot of fun watching these games evolve on a near weekly basis. I relate it to Kickstarter but you actually own a part of the company.
I view investing in these projects no differently than my TSLA positions. Over hyped for sure, but the potential upside is massive and I am unwilling to sit on the sidelines.
Right now I am active in a few communities and it’s been a lot of fun watching these games evolve on a near weekly basis. I relate it to Kickstarter but you actually own a part of the company.
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This reads like a high school student council wrote a financial research booklet and then took themselves seriously.
Touche lol
"The alpha in this report is free, and many have gleaned insights from past reports that helped them make money, but nothing herein is investment advice. Be an adult."
I don't know why but just the choice of words here made me nauseous.
I don't know why but just the choice of words here made me nauseous.
You can tell this promotion is about making money selling tokens.
web3 is BS
everything runs on centralized servers, where are the peers in these p2p networks?
everything runs on centralized servers, where are the peers in these p2p networks?
I'm one, with a node running within arm's reach from me; so make that two I guess
congrats for being one of the minority 20% residential nodes
btw is it archival node or what?
btw is it archival node or what?
It's currently a standard Geth node due to storage limitations (a 1 TB disk for both Geth and Lighthouse). I'll bump the storage up next year to 2 TB (or more), so I can run an erigon archive node and thus won't need to prune geth regularly either.
are you aware of issues around MEV? and how it will centralize further with proof of stake and with staking derivatives?
I'm aware, but I don't know if there are any clear-cut solutions. I'm honestly not too knowledgeable on the issues surrounding MEV in the first place, beyond the obvious issues with censorship and the power large node operators wield. Block proposer/builder separation is one step, but it obviously doesn't help with the fundamental issues surrounding MEV [1].
[1] https://ethresear.ch/t/proposer-block-builder-separation-fri...
e: a letter + source
[1] https://ethresear.ch/t/proposer-block-builder-separation-fri...
e: a letter + source
one is running next to me (geth + lighthouse)
Pretty bold claim with 0 evidence.
0 evidence? I think you mean endlessly endlessly evidence for fake decentralisation
https://twitter.com/dydxprotocol/status/1468293558360805381
Here is a "decentralised" exchange going down with aws
https://twitter.com/dydxprotocol/status/1468293558360805381
Here is a "decentralised" exchange going down with aws
Please make the effort to understand the difference between frontend and backend.
The nice thing about the decentralised exchanges such as Uniswap or -dydx- is that you do not need their websites/ frontends because their smart contracts/ backend is available on the blockchain. Anybody can make a website that interacts with any smart contracts on the blockchain. There are even aggregator websites (e.g. https://app.defisaver.com/).
Do you know any website that aggregates the services of any TradFi banks and brokers?
Edit: Actually dydx is layer 2 now: https://dydx.exchange/blog/layer-1-wind-down
The nice thing about the decentralised exchanges such as Uniswap or -dydx- is that you do not need their websites/ frontends because their smart contracts/ backend is available on the blockchain. Anybody can make a website that interacts with any smart contracts on the blockchain. There are even aggregator websites (e.g. https://app.defisaver.com/).
Do you know any website that aggregates the services of any TradFi banks and brokers?
Edit: Actually dydx is layer 2 now: https://dydx.exchange/blog/layer-1-wind-down
Nice condescending tone you got going
Backend/frontend? I thought this was a decentralized network. There should just be users with nodes. Backends point to clear points of failure from a disingenuous misleading project
Backend/frontend? I thought this was a decentralized network. There should just be users with nodes. Backends point to clear points of failure from a disingenuous misleading project
If you made even a passing attempt at understanding this space you would see how wrong you are.
Anyone can interact with a contract directly, you don't need any FE or BE at all.
I can't speak to the specifics of dydx since I am not a user and haven't done my due diligence on them, but with every other dex I have ever interacted with it is entirely possible to use their service entirely from the contract interface.
Its usually the first thing I do to ensure that I can access my funds without any external dependencies.
Anyone can interact with a contract directly, you don't need any FE or BE at all.
I can't speak to the specifics of dydx since I am not a user and haven't done my due diligence on them, but with every other dex I have ever interacted with it is entirely possible to use their service entirely from the contract interface.
Its usually the first thing I do to ensure that I can access my funds without any external dependencies.
How can I make a passing attempt to understand the space when I've already been teaching decentralised tech for 6 years
Then as an educator you are doing your students a disservice and allowing your personal bias to impact their future.
You are just contradicting the parents comments while trying to claim they aren't being misleading. The exchange when down with aws and they were lying about being decentralised to sell tokens
dYdX is a layer-2 zk-rollup-based exchange that is definitely not decentralized in the sense that e.g. Uniswap is on layer-1. It still, however, inherits the security guarantees of L1 despite not being directly intractable with from L1.
I already know they aren't decentralised
And yet they claim right on the front page "Decentralized"
Also L1 exchanges on Ethereum are arguably not decentralised. They delegate power to miners as a shortcut
And yet they claim right on the front page "Decentralized"
Also L1 exchanges on Ethereum are arguably not decentralised. They delegate power to miners as a shortcut
even your L1 is 70% hosted nodes , why not just run an api on a trusted company's servers that verifies your balances using pub/priv keys and signatures
you guys are up for rude awakening when this rube goldberg machine bricks
you guys are up for rude awakening when this rube goldberg machine bricks
its been over a decade now.
would like to point out that HN was also saying BTC was over valued at $1k.
Didn't listen to you guys then, not going to now either.
would like to point out that HN was also saying BTC was over valued at $1k.
Didn't listen to you guys then, not going to now either.
What does this have to do with bitcoin? Their claims don't relate to bitcoin
exactly
Bitcoin is decentralized, 13,000 nodes - mostly residiential nodes, not hosted.
You're assuming too much.
You're assuming too much.
what's this then : https://www.ethernodes.org/network-types
Pretty bold counter claim with 0 evidence.
Uniswap, ApeSwap, PancakeSwap, SushiSwap, AAVE, Compound, Relay, and many many more.
Check out dappradar for a more exhaustive list of the literal thousands of decentralized finance projects that are currently live.
You can interact with any of these directly from the contract interface itself.
Check out dappradar for a more exhaustive list of the literal thousands of decentralized finance projects that are currently live.
You can interact with any of these directly from the contract interface itself.
where is the code being executed ? hosted nodes or real peers in a "p2p" network?
why does it hard fork so much and make prior clients incompatible? why do they have a monetary policy? isn't that what fiat currency is?
why does it hard fork so much and make prior clients incompatible? why do they have a monetary policy? isn't that what fiat currency is?
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> Whether you’re here as a missionary or a mercenary, you’ll find that one of the primary unifying forces behind this movement is the belief that decentralized technologies with embedded financial incentives (a good shorthand for Web3) offer a compelling, often lucrative, alternative to our decaying legacy institutions
The only reason people are interested in these "lucrative" alternatives is because our "decaying legacy institutions" have incentivised wealth. I've yet to read a compelling argument as to why making a bunch of nerds (like myself) rich is not just a continuation of capitalism. An alternative to capitalism is something that removes financial incentives from life.
The only reason people are interested in these "lucrative" alternatives is because our "decaying legacy institutions" have incentivised wealth. I've yet to read a compelling argument as to why making a bunch of nerds (like myself) rich is not just a continuation of capitalism. An alternative to capitalism is something that removes financial incentives from life.
> I've yet to read a compelling argument as to why making a bunch of nerds (like myself) rich is not just a continuation of capitalism.
Yes, crypto is a continuation of capitalism.
Yes, crypto is a continuation of capitalism.
If anything, crypto is about explicitly enabling and exploiting the best of what capitalism has to offer.
Open access and competition at every step is when capitalism is at its best. It tries to structurally avoid the emergent problem of institutional capture that we're all too familiar with in the US. Finance is probably the best example of institutional capture. So, I see the value of an alternate system.
It reminds me of the development of ML. ML has allowed statisticians, supply chain folks and industrial engineers to market themselves as AI people and implement much needed solutions that existed before the AI boom, but never had the clout or funding needed to push ot through.
Crypto is the Trojan horse. Inside are important traditional solutions whose only shortcoming was lack of a cool factor. So they've hopped on the crypto bandwagon to attract talent and resources needed to make these academic solutions a reality.
Open access and competition at every step is when capitalism is at its best. It tries to structurally avoid the emergent problem of institutional capture that we're all too familiar with in the US. Finance is probably the best example of institutional capture. So, I see the value of an alternate system.
It reminds me of the development of ML. ML has allowed statisticians, supply chain folks and industrial engineers to market themselves as AI people and implement much needed solutions that existed before the AI boom, but never had the clout or funding needed to push ot through.
Crypto is the Trojan horse. Inside are important traditional solutions whose only shortcoming was lack of a cool factor. So they've hopped on the crypto bandwagon to attract talent and resources needed to make these academic solutions a reality.
but is "capitalism at its best" the same as "humanity at its best" or even "humanity at its pretty goodest"? Does the average person without capital want capital, or do they want... to live a happy, stress-free life? right now, obtaining capital is a way to achieve that _because_ capital is so unevenly distributed, but it's not the end game of humanity. caveat: I'm not an academic so I could be missing a very obvious piece of nuance in what "capitalism" means in the context of this discussion.
I grew up in country that spent 40 years ravaged by socialism, so capitalism certainly feels like an upgrade.
We as a society, have yet to figure out how to work around human greed and a need for status. Capitalism offers transparent and relatively productive ways of pursuing them.
I often talk about systems for persons and systems for people. Capitalism is a good system for people. Individual persons should find individual goals separate from the capitalistic system at large. If not capitalism, then what....is a common retort, but it makes sense.
Capitalism is the current of the river. While it incentivizes you to row downstream, you are also free to row where you see fit. Albeit with varying levels of difficulty.
We as a society, have yet to figure out how to work around human greed and a need for status. Capitalism offers transparent and relatively productive ways of pursuing them.
I often talk about systems for persons and systems for people. Capitalism is a good system for people. Individual persons should find individual goals separate from the capitalistic system at large. If not capitalism, then what....is a common retort, but it makes sense.
Capitalism is the current of the river. While it incentivizes you to row downstream, you are also free to row where you see fit. Albeit with varying levels of difficulty.
"Today there is still no scalable, decentralized, widely integrated protocol that moves value and data between blockchains without relying on trusted third parties."
There is absolutely nothing technical or interesting from an engineering perspective in this pdf, but if you want a summary of the crypto-VC-twitterVerse then you might find it entertaining.