The Antikythera mechanism reveals new secrets(scientificamerican.com)
scientificamerican.com
The Antikythera mechanism reveals new secrets
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/an-ancient-greek-astronomical-calculation-machine-reveals-new-secrets/
205 comments
Chris Budiselic and colleagues also wrote a paper https://bhi.co.uk/antikytheramechanism/ proposing that the front dial might be a 354-day lunar calendar rather than a 365-day solar calendar.
Clickspring is an absolute delight. The videos are straight up machining porn and the stuff that he builds is fascinating in its own right, the Antikythera mechanism being a perfect example. I cannot recommend this channel enough.
https://www.youtube.com/c/Clickspring/
https://www.youtube.com/c/Clickspring/
This series is so good but it is unfinished with the last video being uploaded 5 years ago. I want for Chris to finish it so badly.
The most recent video in that playlist was uploaded in December 2020 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MkKgdq57uOo&list=PLZioPDnFPN... (before that the previous video was from October 2018; maybe you meant ~3 years ago)
There is also an 'antikythera fragments' playlist with the most recent video from September 2021 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BLBDKmFG90U&list=PLZioPDnFPN...
There is also an 'antikythera fragments' playlist with the most recent video from September 2021 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BLBDKmFG90U&list=PLZioPDnFPN...
Yeah, working on the paper put a real stop to the work, but it seems to be back up and running again.
All of his videos are behind a Patreon paywall these days, as far as I can tell. He's still working on the Antikythera mechanism, it's just only visible to patrons.
Patreon has gone from helpful support by a few to an exclusive club.
What an absurd posture. HN is full of people endlessly harping about the shitty quality of free, ad supported SEO-rigged mill content that sucks, but then a site that allows often hard working creators to ask for very modest donations so that you can view their material is labeled as "exclusive" and implicitly elitist. The people who try to make some money on Patreon don't owe any special favors to children without credit cards or to people in other countries without applicable payment methods at their disposal. They owe themselves a living, and their sponsors a decent presentation, nothing more. There are still plenty of free alternatives out there, instead of harping about one person hoping to earn some money for all the work they put into their videos/creativity.
Labelled "exclusive" -- merely for excluding people? The indignity.
> an exclusive club
The club is affordable. What makes it exclusive is the intellectual alignment required to unlock the value of the information. Not everyone has that. If you have it, consider joining the club while you are still alive so you can enjoy the benefits of membership and fraternity with people like you. After that brief period expires, the club will be truly exclusive for a long time.
The club is affordable. What makes it exclusive is the intellectual alignment required to unlock the value of the information. Not everyone has that. If you have it, consider joining the club while you are still alive so you can enjoy the benefits of membership and fraternity with people like you. After that brief period expires, the club will be truly exclusive for a long time.
For the donation of a single dollar, you are given access to all of his videos. I would not describe that as "exclusive," although I understand what you are saying.
It’s pretty alienating to the vast majority of underage minds who don’t have their own credit cards, as well as a tremendous amount of people outside the US who have different payment systems.
Personally, I use it to support public content, because I have the means to do so now, and because I didn’t always.
Personally, I use it to support public content, because I have the means to do so now, and because I didn’t always.
Why does Patreon block prepaid cards?
Probably some kind of interpretation of AML obligations. One could setup their own Patreon and pay themselves via cards in ways that banks, payment processors, and possibly law enforcement would rather you didn’t.
I come across this a lot when trying to pay for things with Cash App or Coinbase Card, as they are both classed as prepaid cards for reasons I don’t understand.
I come across this a lot when trying to pay for things with Cash App or Coinbase Card, as they are both classed as prepaid cards for reasons I don’t understand.
It would be interesting to see real-world numbers on the prevalence of money laundering via $1-$10 monthly payments to Patreon, compared to other online vendors who accept legally-permitted prepaid card payments. Most prepaid cards are limited to relatively small amounts anyway, precisely to make them less usable for money laundering.
Meanwhile, https://wallstreetonparade.com/2020/09/3-count-felon-jpmorga...
> secret documents leaked from FinCEN, the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network, a unit of the U.S. Treasury. The documents “show that five global banks — JPMorgan, HSBC, Standard Chartered Bank, Deutsche Bank and Bank of New York Mellon — kept profiting from powerful and dangerous players even after U.S. authorities fined these financial institutions for earlier failures to stem flows of dirty money.”
In comparison to 7 figure flows, Patreon restrictions on already-limited prepaid cards are AML theater.
Meanwhile, https://wallstreetonparade.com/2020/09/3-count-felon-jpmorga...
> secret documents leaked from FinCEN, the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network, a unit of the U.S. Treasury. The documents “show that five global banks — JPMorgan, HSBC, Standard Chartered Bank, Deutsche Bank and Bank of New York Mellon — kept profiting from powerful and dangerous players even after U.S. authorities fined these financial institutions for earlier failures to stem flows of dirty money.”
In comparison to 7 figure flows, Patreon restrictions on already-limited prepaid cards are AML theater.
I love this conversation. If anything, I feel like I’m late to this party, and I’m not even trying to do anything that isn’t expressly allowed.
To your point about small amounts, I think that is also monetizable with fake/stolen accounts cashing in on referral and promotional “free money,” combined with widespread flip/swap scams. I wonder if patio11 could enlighten us with some hard numbers on the dollar values of attempted fraudulent purchases. I suspect that actual card swipe fraud to be high dollar items sent to dead drops, and low dollar fraud utilizing unauthorized access to others’ accounts and money transfer apps, and so-called “friendly fraud.”
On a related note, scam rap is so lit right now. I’ll just leave this right here. Teejayx6 really gets the subculture, and as a child who grew up learning how to hack in the wild 90s, he speaks truth. He may have created the subgenre, but raps about ill-gotten gains are as old as soul music.
> I just made a fake GoFundMe someone send donations
https://genius.com/Teejayx6-gofundme-lyrics
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Teejayx6
To your point about small amounts, I think that is also monetizable with fake/stolen accounts cashing in on referral and promotional “free money,” combined with widespread flip/swap scams. I wonder if patio11 could enlighten us with some hard numbers on the dollar values of attempted fraudulent purchases. I suspect that actual card swipe fraud to be high dollar items sent to dead drops, and low dollar fraud utilizing unauthorized access to others’ accounts and money transfer apps, and so-called “friendly fraud.”
On a related note, scam rap is so lit right now. I’ll just leave this right here. Teejayx6 really gets the subculture, and as a child who grew up learning how to hack in the wild 90s, he speaks truth. He may have created the subgenre, but raps about ill-gotten gains are as old as soul music.
> I just made a fake GoFundMe someone send donations
https://genius.com/Teejayx6-gofundme-lyrics
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Teejayx6
> For the donation of a single dollar..
x100 channels I may watch.
I can't afford to be a patron for all the channels I like. Maybe I'm in the minority for my salary but $100 or $200 / month is not a thing I can afford, or even half that.
edit: in a way it's the paywall of videos
x100 channels I may watch.
I can't afford to be a patron for all the channels I like. Maybe I'm in the minority for my salary but $100 or $200 / month is not a thing I can afford, or even half that.
edit: in a way it's the paywall of videos
It was always meant for people to be patrons of someone, like artists were back in the Renaissance. It's simply a way for people to be paid for their work, and what better way than exclusivity? That's basically the same as being able to use software only if it's paid for, like most SaaS these days.
SaaS feels like a huge scam, not sure that is the direction I’d go on that argument.
I miss buying Photoshop on a disc and it was yours forever.
I miss buying Photoshop on a disc and it was yours forever.
Ok, then using your Photoshop example, it's like only being able to use it if you buy it. Same thing, doesn't have to be a recurring purchase.
[deleted]
It still beats the other main business model for content creators which is peppering things with ads and SEO spam by a country mile in my opinion.
The club is so exclusive it costs $5.
i'm 5m in to the first video and already hooked. incredible work... i saw the actual device in athens and the craftsmanship is still visible, and this is a fitting tribute. :)
Tools from that age? I’m on video 2, and it looks like he’s using a bunch of modern tools that wouldn’t have been available 2000+ years ago?
Keep watching -- he gets more into the period appropriate tools later in the series including home made drills, files, layout ink, soldering tools, etc
It's not exactly "making the whole thing with period tools" but rather "exploring how each part could have been made using available technology (but still doing the bulk of the work with modern tooling)".
The ancient tool series is another list of his: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLZioPDnFPNsGnUXuZScwn...
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This detailed description and his musings make me further convinced that if high quality clear glass technology had been created at this time, human history and discovery could have been profoundly different. Eyeglasses, telescopes, and microscopes would have allowed the Greeks to take discovery to the next level.
Surely that’s an oversimplification, but I always wonder.
Surely that’s an oversimplification, but I always wonder.
There are some rather compelling theories positing that ancient Egyptians discovered how they could make a type of glass that they moulded in to a lens at least 5M in diameter. At that size, the focused light from the sun gets hot enough to melt granite (among other things).
I thin you’re right that they likely would not have had the clarity to make those smaller optics useful, but it feels interesting enough to add here.
I thin you’re right that they likely would not have had the clarity to make those smaller optics useful, but it feels interesting enough to add here.
Got any links for this? I'd like to know more.
I am ashamed that we think so little of ancient cultures.
they weren't stupid. they were as smart as we are, perhaps smarter.
they were far fewer in number than we are today, and the library of technology they could draw from to solve a problem was much smaller for them, is all.
nothing about the Antikythera mechanism is complex; the math is simple and the construction is that of a machine made many times and made slightly smaller each iteration, as sections are moved to fit into a more compact arrangement.
even coming up with the ratios to describe the motion of the planets would be easily done by one or more people who were dedicated observers who wrote their observations down.
nothing here is complex, yet we still consider new discoveries about the device which reveal unpredicted complexity to be "too advanced" to be made at the time it appears to be made...
I don't know why scientists do this. why can't we just admit that we don't know what ancient civilizations were capable of, rather than assuming they were incapable of simple tasks?
they weren't stupid. they were as smart as we are, perhaps smarter.
they were far fewer in number than we are today, and the library of technology they could draw from to solve a problem was much smaller for them, is all.
nothing about the Antikythera mechanism is complex; the math is simple and the construction is that of a machine made many times and made slightly smaller each iteration, as sections are moved to fit into a more compact arrangement.
even coming up with the ratios to describe the motion of the planets would be easily done by one or more people who were dedicated observers who wrote their observations down.
nothing here is complex, yet we still consider new discoveries about the device which reveal unpredicted complexity to be "too advanced" to be made at the time it appears to be made...
I don't know why scientists do this. why can't we just admit that we don't know what ancient civilizations were capable of, rather than assuming they were incapable of simple tasks?
Scientists build on what they know, not what they speculate. "We" don't look down on ancient peoples, it's just that history didn't show any devices this complicated so this "unique" device has captured everyone's attention. No one is looking down on the Greeks. Ancients humans were as smart as we are, they just didn't have as much data to draw from to create new things or come up with new theories.
I'm not sure in general "scientists" do what you suggest. Not all scientists are required to take them, but there are courses in the history of science. I took two semesters and it was quite enlightening. The texts we used were replete with admonishments against the sort of chauvinism you suggest.
At the same time, if we discover some feat of engineering or scrap of insight that was heretofore thought unknown in the period it was created in, it's worth noting: it permits us to revise what we know about the investigators of the time and what they actually knew to begin with.
At the same time, if we discover some feat of engineering or scrap of insight that was heretofore thought unknown in the period it was created in, it's worth noting: it permits us to revise what we know about the investigators of the time and what they actually knew to begin with.
The ancient Greeks did the same thing. They believed that the walls of Mycenae were built by cyclops because they couldn't imagine how their forefathers built them - and so they dubbed it cyclopean masonry. Ancient aliens for ancient Greeks.
If you enjoy this kind of rabbit hole, check out Randall Carlson. People tend to dismiss him but what I like about him, is that he tries to put everything into the correct context, as time goes back. He is not just looking at a tiny slice of what/how things could have been in one domain (say, climate change or ancient structures or math) but tries to put all of it into context of everything else around it & regarding timelines. He also seem to not go out of his way to attribute historical findings to fantastical causes (aliens, gods, giants, reptiles etc) - he tends to boil them down to the simplest explanations (as boring as that is vs aliens etc) and also tries to imagine the mindset and the way the ancient peoples thought about things, how they gathered and transferred knowledge etc. Even if he is incorrect, most of what he claims seems very plausible and it is very humbling to reflect on what our home (the earth) has endured, how much our ancestors and other animals & plants have endured and just how perfect our planet is for us. We must cherish and protect it by all means if we can, but we must also protect knowledge and pass it forward. And then ultimately we need a way to store/send knowledge and life off-planet to somehow ensure we can repopulate the earth if things go sideways (again)(and it will, just a matter of time).
As I said, very nice rabbit hole to fall into. Randall Carlson and Paul Stamets are my two favourite bearded story tellers of our time, about our relationship to our home, our place in the universe & consciousness. They are our Gandalfs. They are perhaps not super accepted by mainstream science or all scientists, but they play a very valuable role.
Anyone else reading this, do you have any other Gandalfs that you can recommend?
As I said, very nice rabbit hole to fall into. Randall Carlson and Paul Stamets are my two favourite bearded story tellers of our time, about our relationship to our home, our place in the universe & consciousness. They are our Gandalfs. They are perhaps not super accepted by mainstream science or all scientists, but they play a very valuable role.
Anyone else reading this, do you have any other Gandalfs that you can recommend?
* Ben Cerveny
* Don Norman
* Karl Pribram
* Wim Hof
* Don Norman
* Karl Pribram
* Wim Hof
> why can't we just admit that we don't know what ancient civilizations were capable of, rather than assuming they were incapable of simple tasks?
A quirk of humans CS Lewis calls "Chronological Snobbery" - that what we know and generate now is obviously superior to what they knew and generated then - because if they were so smart like we were, they'd have invented the stuff we did.
It falls apart with the slightest interaction with actual history (even the known bits - Roman cement and aquaducts are obvious examples that stick out), but since we don't really teach history, and that which we do teach is a bit "religion of progress" biased ("From the caves, to the stars, through us, always onward and upward!" - again, doesn't match reality, but nobody seems to care).
The gizmos we have now are mostly a function of the energy resources we've cracked open in the past few hundred years, which were related to some quirks of a small island to the west of the European continent a few hundred years back, and so on back through time.
Human nature hasn't changed for much of recorded history, and neither has human intelligence. It's been used in different ways in different times, for different goals, but if anything, we've spent the past 30+ years finding ways to destroy the human ability to focus in pursuit of profits - look at any modern smartphone app. Great profit, for someone else, because it destroys your attention. Oral epics and such are just a different focus from what we currently value, which is mostly "How can I capture and process behavioral surplus to generate prediction products to sell advertisements?" (to paraphrase Zuboff).
Never underestimate what a bored machinist can accomplish in their spare time.
A quirk of humans CS Lewis calls "Chronological Snobbery" - that what we know and generate now is obviously superior to what they knew and generated then - because if they were so smart like we were, they'd have invented the stuff we did.
It falls apart with the slightest interaction with actual history (even the known bits - Roman cement and aquaducts are obvious examples that stick out), but since we don't really teach history, and that which we do teach is a bit "religion of progress" biased ("From the caves, to the stars, through us, always onward and upward!" - again, doesn't match reality, but nobody seems to care).
The gizmos we have now are mostly a function of the energy resources we've cracked open in the past few hundred years, which were related to some quirks of a small island to the west of the European continent a few hundred years back, and so on back through time.
Human nature hasn't changed for much of recorded history, and neither has human intelligence. It's been used in different ways in different times, for different goals, but if anything, we've spent the past 30+ years finding ways to destroy the human ability to focus in pursuit of profits - look at any modern smartphone app. Great profit, for someone else, because it destroys your attention. Oral epics and such are just a different focus from what we currently value, which is mostly "How can I capture and process behavioral surplus to generate prediction products to sell advertisements?" (to paraphrase Zuboff).
Never underestimate what a bored machinist can accomplish in their spare time.
> Never underestimate what a bored machinist can accomplish in their spare time.
Put a bit broader, never underestimate what people can achieve and figure out in their spare time. I mean as a child I would build dams and channels out of stones and dirt at the beach or near rivers while on vacation, without any formal education or knowledge about waterworks. I can see how this play would end up in things like irrigation systems, aqueducts and sewage systems over time, if I were to live in a place or a time where those things were not present.
It's probably been the same with tools and art for tens of thousands of years. When people are not struggling for survival, they will experiment.
Put a bit broader, never underestimate what people can achieve and figure out in their spare time. I mean as a child I would build dams and channels out of stones and dirt at the beach or near rivers while on vacation, without any formal education or knowledge about waterworks. I can see how this play would end up in things like irrigation systems, aqueducts and sewage systems over time, if I were to live in a place or a time where those things were not present.
It's probably been the same with tools and art for tens of thousands of years. When people are not struggling for survival, they will experiment.
this was an amazing read!
I know some are upset at certain recent SciAm op-eds.
But every issue has 2-5 gorgeous, beefy articles like this one that make me a happy paying subscriber.
Absolutely stunning visualization of the inner workings of this marvelous device.
I know some are upset at certain recent SciAm op-eds.
But every issue has 2-5 gorgeous, beefy articles like this one that make me a happy paying subscriber.
Absolutely stunning visualization of the inner workings of this marvelous device.
The 19 year Metonic cycle is interesting. I think it is also the orbital period of the moons nodes (aka dragon head/tail or north node/south node or rahu/Ketu in Indian astronomy). I wonder if there is a connection.
Then you’d might find the axial cycle interesting, and this sculpture depicting it.
The plaza’s terrazzo floor is actually a celestial map that marks the time of the dam’s creation based on the 25,772-year axial precession of the earth.
https://medium.com/the-long-now-foundation/the-26-000-year-a...
The plaza’s terrazzo floor is actually a celestial map that marks the time of the dam’s creation based on the 25,772-year axial precession of the earth.
https://medium.com/the-long-now-foundation/the-26-000-year-a...
Fascinating, I think Yukteswar Giri (teacher of Yogananda) tried to make a case that the Yuga cycles were tied to the axial precession. Somehow these cosmic manifestation have a parallel on what happens on earth, similar to how the earths rotation around the sun creates some regular periodic change (aka the 4 seasons)
The Metonic cycle likely is the connection. No matter where you are on earth, if you start tracking the years (from the repetition of the seasons) and months (from the lunar phases), you’ll noticed the location of the moon (and, hence, eclipses) repeats itself after 19 years (it’s “almost repeats”, but discovering that takes either over a lifetime of observations or fairly precise measurements and trust in them)
Wow thanks, this is so fascinating
I live a 10' min walking distance from the museum the mechanism is displayed. Reading this makes me a bit ashamed for not spending hours just looking at it.
I went to that museum last summer and I spent 90% of my visit at exhibits related to it. It's super cool, and well-presented, IMO.
I’m wondering if anyone has created a software model of the mechanism.
Is anyone aware of such a project?
It sounds right up the alley of many HN readers.
Is anyone aware of such a project?
It sounds right up the alley of many HN readers.
More than a decade ago, Diomidis Spinellis created an implementation running on the OLPC, written in Squeak:
https://www.spinellis.gr/sw/ameso/
https://www.spinellis.gr/sw/ameso/
Backwards engineering the front and back and how it all came together and passed though has me picturing this as a possibly the earliest front end/back end development situation. It even included documentation. A software version would be neat to see.
I feel like I saw one on the F-Droid app repository
I was thinking the same thing! I 3D model would be really neat to watch and pick apart.
I have one on mu iPad. There are 2 in the App Store, I think.
This what you have?
https://apps.apple.com/us/app/antikythera-mechanism/id989574...
The other one seems to be less favorably rated.
https://apps.apple.com/us/app/antikythera-mechanism/id989574...
The other one seems to be less favorably rated.
It's really surprising we've never seen another like it in the archaeological record. This is can't be the first thing of this nature that this craftsman ever made.
It does make me curious. I mean, while I'm sure a machine like this would be rare even then, there have HAD to be more of them, or similar, simpler machines with cogs and dials, because these things usually don't exist in a vacuum.
We just don't know how much has been lost due to decay or re-melting stuff. I mean just look around and see how much stuff from, say, 500 years ago is still around. Tools and household items, I mean. It's limited to a few museum pieces. And if you look at some big upheavals / iconoclasms (always wanted to use that word) from recent years in for example the middle east, or the cultural revolution in China, a lot of these historical collections end up destroyed or lost for one reason or another. I mean some people were doing book burnings in the US not long ago.
We just don't know how much has been lost due to decay or re-melting stuff. I mean just look around and see how much stuff from, say, 500 years ago is still around. Tools and household items, I mean. It's limited to a few museum pieces. And if you look at some big upheavals / iconoclasms (always wanted to use that word) from recent years in for example the middle east, or the cultural revolution in China, a lot of these historical collections end up destroyed or lost for one reason or another. I mean some people were doing book burnings in the US not long ago.
The article proposes the explanation that because bronze was expensive if some gear broke the bronze was melted and reused maybe for something similar IF you had the skills to make a new one, but as likely used for something else.
Also it seems like a major undertaking creating such a machine. Perhaps they had just a few of them like we have just a few big particle accelerators.
The article does not get into how much effort and wealth it would have required to build such a machine assuming you had the people who could a) create the gears with high enough precision and b) assemble it. If you ever took a mechanical alarm clock apart and tried to re-assemble it you know what I mean.
Also it seems like a major undertaking creating such a machine. Perhaps they had just a few of them like we have just a few big particle accelerators.
The article does not get into how much effort and wealth it would have required to build such a machine assuming you had the people who could a) create the gears with high enough precision and b) assemble it. If you ever took a mechanical alarm clock apart and tried to re-assemble it you know what I mean.
The famous Antikythera mechanism:
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29778874
https://hn.algolia.com/?q=Antikythera
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29778874
https://hn.algolia.com/?q=Antikythera
Every time something like this is found, I think it highlights how little credit we give some ancient people. You have to imagine there were machines they created that were more complex than this that we haven't discovered. There are a lot of people in our current times that couldn't build this even with an entire machine shop at their disposal.
Every time I think about the Antikythera mechanism the quote by Arthur C. Clarke comes to mind
"If the insight of the Greeks had matched their ingenuity…we would not merely be puttering around on the Moon, we would have reached the nearer stars."
It's a little sensational but also makes me think of what could've been, if certain paths had been realized in past times, and also makes me put the technical knowledge of past civilizations in much higher regard.
"If the insight of the Greeks had matched their ingenuity…we would not merely be puttering around on the Moon, we would have reached the nearer stars."
It's a little sensational but also makes me think of what could've been, if certain paths had been realized in past times, and also makes me put the technical knowledge of past civilizations in much higher regard.
This realization hit me after spending a few weeks in Italy seeing the remains of the Roman Empire. I had a building sense that they were awfully close to the industrial revolution, that there was no particular reason it couldn’t have happened thousands of years ago in the face of a highly organized, long lived, innovative empire with enormous resources. I think it’s an accident of history that it happened in England instead.
They had nothing like the Modern age's science. I can't imagine any reason for it not appearing there given enough time, but they didn't have the dispassionate questioning of every theory and total submission to empiricism that are fundamental to science today.
Math advanced a huge amount during the Medieval age. They simply didn't have good tools for calculations, and nearly all of the Modern Age's math was based on questions that they didn't even consider to ask by then.
There were huge advances on material handling during the Medieval and Modern ages. Not only the obvious ones on metallurgy, but on glass working and ceramics too. All of those were important.
And let's not underestimate the individuals. Had Newton not been born, our Industrial Revolution could be delayed for many decades too. Anyway, it's no accident that when he appeared, he was at England, there was basically no other place on the world where somebody like him could do what he did.
Math advanced a huge amount during the Medieval age. They simply didn't have good tools for calculations, and nearly all of the Modern Age's math was based on questions that they didn't even consider to ask by then.
There were huge advances on material handling during the Medieval and Modern ages. Not only the obvious ones on metallurgy, but on glass working and ceramics too. All of those were important.
And let's not underestimate the individuals. Had Newton not been born, our Industrial Revolution could be delayed for many decades too. Anyway, it's no accident that when he appeared, he was at England, there was basically no other place on the world where somebody like him could do what he did.
You are giving way too much credit to science in the early phase of industrial revolution. Science has been extremely important in technological development from late 1800s onwards, but the most critical leaps of late 1700s and early 1800s had little to do with Newton-style science. Instead, they mostly about engineering improvements, combined with a newly widespread social attitude that technology actually can be significantly improved. Flying shuttle has not been based on some theoretical scientific model, but rather on experience with making looms and ingenuity in improving them. Similarly, Watt didn’t create his engine based on theory of thermodynamics, instead he just observed that repeatedly heating and cooling the cylinder is wasteful, and came up with a technique to avoid that.
If you follow the development Industrial Revolution, you’ll see that it’s mostly thanks to ingenious engineers, not smart scientists. The scientists did occasionally deliver something valuable, often in fact paradigm-changing, but importantly, this only became very relevant around the turn of 20th century.
If you follow the development Industrial Revolution, you’ll see that it’s mostly thanks to ingenious engineers, not smart scientists. The scientists did occasionally deliver something valuable, often in fact paradigm-changing, but importantly, this only became very relevant around the turn of 20th century.
> The scientists did occasionally deliver something valuable, often in fact paradigm-changing, but importantly, this only became very relevant around the turn of 20th century.
James Watt was only able to build efficient steam engines because Joseph Black discovered latent heat in 1761. Without steam engines, there’s no industrial revolution.
James Watt was only able to build efficient steam engines because Joseph Black discovered latent heat in 1761. Without steam engines, there’s no industrial revolution.
> James Watt was only able to build efficient steam engines because Joseph Black discovered latent heat in 1761.
No, in fact both Black and Watt explicitly claimed that their research and results were independent.
No, in fact both Black and Watt explicitly claimed that their research and results were independent.
Whilst Hero's aeolipile is incredibly wasteful, the ancient world did have the right conceptual basis for steam engines to have developed.
Any good references you'd recommend for learning more about this?
I read about Oliver Heaviside and that helped shed some light on engineering improvements from that period of time. He was around a bit later in the 1800s, though.
I read about Oliver Heaviside and that helped shed some light on engineering improvements from that period of time. He was around a bit later in the 1800s, though.
Having forces defined as a quantifiable concept that you can easily predict is quite important for tooling and creating reproducible machines. The Mechanics is quite important for mechanical engineering.
Yes, those engineers were inventing most things by themselves, but they didn't work in a vacuum.
Yes, those engineers were inventing most things by themselves, but they didn't work in a vacuum.
I find interesting that Archimedes came so, so close to calculus millenniums before Newton.
I wonder how things would've panned out had him had the mathematical tools to formalize calculus.
You're correct that Archimedes presaged core concepts of calculus: in his work building upon the method of exhaustion, quadrature for certain conic sections and tangent of a spiral. It's nonetheless quite a ways up the tech-tree from calculus. Important developments were also contributed by al-Tūsī in the 12th century and Kerala school mathematicians (Indian, prominently around 14th century, though their broader influence is uncertain).
As advanced as Ancient Greek mathematics was, its heavy emphasis on geometric formulations made many developments more difficult. The Hindu-Arabic numeral system, algebra, invention of a zero number concept (Cardan's proof of the cubic and quartic would have gone significantly easier if he had utilized zero as a number) and Descartes's Analytic geometry were important developments on the way to calculus. By the time of Barrow's and Fermat's contributions, nearly all essential components of calculus existed, just requiring some genius to grab, synthesize and streamline them.
As advanced as Ancient Greek mathematics was, its heavy emphasis on geometric formulations made many developments more difficult. The Hindu-Arabic numeral system, algebra, invention of a zero number concept (Cardan's proof of the cubic and quartic would have gone significantly easier if he had utilized zero as a number) and Descartes's Analytic geometry were important developments on the way to calculus. By the time of Barrow's and Fermat's contributions, nearly all essential components of calculus existed, just requiring some genius to grab, synthesize and streamline them.
It's interesting that calculus was independently invented 3 times nearly simultaneously (AFAIK there's a lesser known one). Yet, I don't know any reason for it not to be invented 3 centuries earlier.
A fun alternative time line to think about would be if the romans had progressed, had depleted all coal and oil resources, leaving us today in a postapocalyptic wasteland, having the knowledge how to build an advanced society, but lacking the ressources…
Presumably it would have happened more slowly, as the world population was less then. Though, maybe that wouldn't have actually made that much difference, as the rapid population growth of the last few hundred years is probably largely the result of technological progress (specifically, increases in farm output and modern medical technology). If there had been a population boom during the Roman empire, they might have been able to consume the world's fossil fuel resources pretty quickly, and with predictable results.
I would read that book.
Anathem by Neal Stephenson has some of that vibe. If you haven't read it, I'd recommend reading it without even glancing at the Wikipedia page or plot synopses to avoid conceptual spoilers.
It doesn't have tone in common with post-apocalyptic fiction. I'd call it "alternative future", not that it's easy to pigeonhole!
It absolutely is germane to this conversation and thanks for reminding me of it.
I think HN would enjoy it very much. It's an astonishing novel. Read it!
It absolutely is germane to this conversation and thanks for reminding me of it.
I think HN would enjoy it very much. It's an astonishing novel. Read it!
"A mote in god's eye", by Niven & Pournelle covers a very similar setup, although not on earth. It's also quite good.
Not an accident. Energy. Rome as a meta-organism was limited by available energy- trees weren't enough, and denudation of forests was already a limiting factor. Meanwhile, Britain had plentiful coal in easily-accessible abundance. No point in developing steam and a theory of thermodynamics when you can't use the results.
I thought denudation of forest was a limiting factor in the UK too, indeed a motivating factor for https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abraham_Darby_I
It absolutely was. It has been everywhere! The difference being that the UK had coal to fill the need.
Italy does have some coal and Rome at one point had the coal seams of the UK.
Yup. The Romans in Britain did use coal for their hypocausts. But too far away, too little, too late for the Empire at large.
Check out some of the research on how the terra cotta army in Xi'an was produced. There were some very modern (20th century) mass production techniques in place. It's pretty fascinating to see how differently history could have gone.
These were slave societies. Buckminster Fuller enunciated the concept of 'energy slaves', that is each modern person vampires off the energy of certain number of fossil fuel human equivalents. One calculation in the Wikipedia article has 400 energy slaves backing each developed world resident. The most most slave-ridden ancient societies never exceeded 10:1, with most like 3:1. Social progress would need to go in hand with technological progress.
What were the main factors that prevented the roman empire from having an industrial revolution?
Is there a single technology, that if sent back in time, would have sustained their empire? (Steam engine? Hydropower improvements? Standardized measurements for tighter tolerances?)
Is there a single technology, that if sent back in time, would have sustained their empire? (Steam engine? Hydropower improvements? Standardized measurements for tighter tolerances?)
I've seen the argument made that the major factor was slavery. In general, they had a cheap source of unskilled labor. Major advances in industrialization were often driven, in no small part, by high labor costs.
I see a strong counter-argument in their advanced knowledge (and industrial-scale use) of hydro power. Are you familiar with the Barbegal mills?
What I think could have been a considerable factor that is rarely discussed is how "cosmopolitan" power structures appear in the late empire: someone makes an exceptional military career, gathers loyalty in the legions currently stationed in whatever corner of the empire he happens to serve, a few years later he's one of the contenders for emperor in the next civil war. But the economic development of the regions the "players" are associated with (if they even are associated with some specific region) doesn't seem to be a factor at all in that game.
A few centuries later feudalism and successors had military power (and with it political power) tied much closer to actual land and its economic power. This certainly did not directly lead to politics trying to foster industrial progress, but I can easily imagine how one form of stability (some hierarchy of lords stable for generations) could set up the prerequisites in a way the other form of stability (one seemingly eternal super-state but in an endless state of internal strife as the only form of meaningful achievement) would not.
What I think could have been a considerable factor that is rarely discussed is how "cosmopolitan" power structures appear in the late empire: someone makes an exceptional military career, gathers loyalty in the legions currently stationed in whatever corner of the empire he happens to serve, a few years later he's one of the contenders for emperor in the next civil war. But the economic development of the regions the "players" are associated with (if they even are associated with some specific region) doesn't seem to be a factor at all in that game.
A few centuries later feudalism and successors had military power (and with it political power) tied much closer to actual land and its economic power. This certainly did not directly lead to politics trying to foster industrial progress, but I can easily imagine how one form of stability (some hierarchy of lords stable for generations) could set up the prerequisites in a way the other form of stability (one seemingly eternal super-state but in an endless state of internal strife as the only form of meaningful achievement) would not.
The British Empire too had relied on slavery until well into the nineteenth century. By which time the Industrial Revolution was already underway.
There were some significant differences. For one thing, slavery was not legal within Britain itself, which is where the industrial revolution occurred. While no doubt slavery abroad meant that some luxury goods like sugar or tobacco were cheaper than they otherwise have been, there weren't slaves working the fields to make food and weave clothes in Britain itself.
There's a whole lot of research to show that the cost of labour in Britain in the 18th century was far higher than that of continental Europe - several times higher. And that this high cost of labour is what spurred on innovation.
There's a whole lot of research to show that the cost of labour in Britain in the 18th century was far higher than that of continental Europe - several times higher. And that this high cost of labour is what spurred on innovation.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Industrial_Revolution#Requirem...
I found this a fascinating read. Below that section is a list of technological developments.
I found this a fascinating read. Below that section is a list of technological developments.
Interesting.
"natural resources such as [...] waterfalls"?
Is this a typo? Or is it talking about small waterfalls for hydro power?
--
Which of those six factors was the roman empire lacking? I feel like they could have had all six, but I don't know much about roman history.
"natural resources such as [...] waterfalls"?
Is this a typo? Or is it talking about small waterfalls for hydro power?
--
Which of those six factors was the roman empire lacking? I feel like they could have had all six, but I don't know much about roman history.
L. Sprague De Camp had the same opinion https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lest_Darkness_Fall
Although other books claim the title today, for a few decades "Lest Darkness Fall" was considered the first distinctly science fiction novel.
They did not have the printing press or free markets. The combination of the wider dissemination of ways of knowing and acting in a free market of ideas combined with a free market of individuals and firms that applied the knowledge is what set it all off.
The ancient Greeks had a steam engine. There were no mass printed books so barely anyone knew about it. Even if you knew you couldn’t exactly start a company.
The ancient Greeks had a steam engine. There were no mass printed books so barely anyone knew about it. Even if you knew you couldn’t exactly start a company.
Priority was given to running an empire, which didn't require too much mechanical ingenuity, just political ingenuity.
Really dumb question, but one I must ask after reading this article and then your post. Could it be possible that humans had some pretty awesome technology even farther in the past than we know (beyond earliest recorded history), but due to some extinction event all records of society from that time were wiped out?
For example if we had some crazy extinction event, the dark ages that would follow are pretty scary to think about. I would feel like the researchers trying to understand what I'm looking at, and they mention there's some sort of user manual inscription. If we are reduced to small tribes again, with no access to internet, electricity, running water, etc. I can't imagine us actually recovering to the current state without thousands of years. Most people have no idea how anything works, we just buy it on amazon and it arrives tomorrow or stream the latest movie. Just thought I'd throw my dumb question out there lol.
For example if we had some crazy extinction event, the dark ages that would follow are pretty scary to think about. I would feel like the researchers trying to understand what I'm looking at, and they mention there's some sort of user manual inscription. If we are reduced to small tribes again, with no access to internet, electricity, running water, etc. I can't imagine us actually recovering to the current state without thousands of years. Most people have no idea how anything works, we just buy it on amazon and it arrives tomorrow or stream the latest movie. Just thought I'd throw my dumb question out there lol.
We can be reasonably certain there were no such civilizations on Earth prior to modern human history, otherwise we'd see evidence in the archeological record or even fossil record. I don't mean finding silicon chips in a fossil or anything so advanced. I mean very simple things like ceramic chips or bits of worked glass that would survive for millions of years.
The only way a civilization at least as advanced as bronze-age humans existed 100k+ years ago is if it was visitors from a parent civilization on another world that died out. That's the only way you get advanced technology on a small enough scale that we wouldn't be able to find any clues because the clues would be localized to a tiny area we just haven't stumbled across yet (to be clear I don't think any such civilization ever existed).
The only way a civilization at least as advanced as bronze-age humans existed 100k+ years ago is if it was visitors from a parent civilization on another world that died out. That's the only way you get advanced technology on a small enough scale that we wouldn't be able to find any clues because the clues would be localized to a tiny area we just haven't stumbled across yet (to be clear I don't think any such civilization ever existed).
> archeological record or even fossil record
The Earth may (I think it likely) have been tectonically active for long enough to destroy any such traces of an advanced civilization arising during its first couple eons (oldest macro-fossil: 800m years; Earth: 4.5b years).
Better disproof is perhaps the absence of evidence in the geologic/atmospheric record. One imagines that a geologist in the deep future could detect a long-forgotten humanity via the record's abrupt spike in CO2 output, just as present geologists know of the Great Oxidation Event.
The Earth may (I think it likely) have been tectonically active for long enough to destroy any such traces of an advanced civilization arising during its first couple eons (oldest macro-fossil: 800m years; Earth: 4.5b years).
Better disproof is perhaps the absence of evidence in the geologic/atmospheric record. One imagines that a geologist in the deep future could detect a long-forgotten humanity via the record's abrupt spike in CO2 output, just as present geologists know of the Great Oxidation Event.
No at all a dumb question :) It's actually a fascinating question!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Silurian_hypothesis
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Silurian_hypothesis
Look into Graham Hancock, he writes a lot about possible lost civilizations. He gets lots of hate and I have no idea if any of it is true, but super fun to read.
What'll really bake your noodle is the fact that we most likely couldn't tell if there was a pre-human civilization on earth, even around industrial levels. What we have now will easily last a thousand years - but not a thousand thousands years.
And my favorite hypothesis: Antarctica. If there ever was a species which flourished there, it's a lot harder for them to colonize the rest of the world than it is for us to visit Antarctica. Clothes you can just wear, and heating is pretty straightforward - but having to venture in a place where portable aircon failure means death will pretty much guarantee you don't build a lot far from home. Which puts a pretty high limit on how far a civilization could have gotten there and still have all traces hidden in the ice.
And my favorite hypothesis: Antarctica. If there ever was a species which flourished there, it's a lot harder for them to colonize the rest of the world than it is for us to visit Antarctica. Clothes you can just wear, and heating is pretty straightforward - but having to venture in a place where portable aircon failure means death will pretty much guarantee you don't build a lot far from home. Which puts a pretty high limit on how far a civilization could have gotten there and still have all traces hidden in the ice.
I doubt this is really true. We've identified many traces of life from millions of years ago. You don't think we could find some bricks or beams from an industrial civilization?
Their insight was great as well.
Most people today are familiar with Aristotle and Plato because the early Christian church embraced Neoplatonism's "perfect design" - but there was a very popular school of philosophy frequently overlooked because it was declared heretical.
The Epicureans not only were the first we know of in history to theorize that light was made up of tiny quantized parts moving quickly (the experiment showing this is what Einstein won his Nobel Prize for), they also thought the reason life existed was that out of chaos there were a great many worlds out in the void many which didn't have life at all and we just happened to be on a world with life.
They even thought that the first living creatures didn't have any senses at all, and through intermediary "freaks" eventually beings like us came to exist.
So there were ancient minds pondering quantized light, the anthropic principle, and evolution.
They just didn't have any ways to demonstrate who was actually right, and the group that eventually seized power declared much of what ended up being correct heretical and banned it.
They had BOTH insight and ingenuity. What they didn't have was the security or indispensability to protect those qualities from the masses who had neither.
Most people today are familiar with Aristotle and Plato because the early Christian church embraced Neoplatonism's "perfect design" - but there was a very popular school of philosophy frequently overlooked because it was declared heretical.
The Epicureans not only were the first we know of in history to theorize that light was made up of tiny quantized parts moving quickly (the experiment showing this is what Einstein won his Nobel Prize for), they also thought the reason life existed was that out of chaos there were a great many worlds out in the void many which didn't have life at all and we just happened to be on a world with life.
They even thought that the first living creatures didn't have any senses at all, and through intermediary "freaks" eventually beings like us came to exist.
So there were ancient minds pondering quantized light, the anthropic principle, and evolution.
They just didn't have any ways to demonstrate who was actually right, and the group that eventually seized power declared much of what ended up being correct heretical and banned it.
They had BOTH insight and ingenuity. What they didn't have was the security or indispensability to protect those qualities from the masses who had neither.
I find it to be a good reminder that whatever complexity we have managed to create today likely won't last for 1000s or even 100s of years. We initially didn't believe that precision gears were possible for the time period this device comes from.
Sometimes I think about how I might present a progression from electricity and transistors to fully functional computers for a future society that somehow lost the knowledge. Most of our computing devices won't last 100 years. The ones that do might be older equipment with a little more "silicon redundancy" or even materials that are more resistant to corrosion... if they aren't mined for it first. Given that we store almost all of our current knowledge in electronic form, corroding/losing the ability to retrieve it will likely mean the end of the art.
Sometimes I think about how I might present a progression from electricity and transistors to fully functional computers for a future society that somehow lost the knowledge. Most of our computing devices won't last 100 years. The ones that do might be older equipment with a little more "silicon redundancy" or even materials that are more resistant to corrosion... if they aren't mined for it first. Given that we store almost all of our current knowledge in electronic form, corroding/losing the ability to retrieve it will likely mean the end of the art.
The ancients called this device a "Nokia 3310". While it looks a lot like our newest Fartalkers this is almost certainly mere coincidence. The idea ancient humans had developed anything like unwired-electromagnetics is laughable. More likely the object served some religious purpose though we can only speculate on the type of ceremonies it may have been used in.
There is recent evidence that as the end of the civilization drew nearer, the ancients fruitlessly increased the frequency and duration with which they performed these ceremonies. When coupled with geologic records, it's likely that famine and increasing tide levels had something to do with the increase of these ceremonies.
You comment reminds me of one of my favorite short stories, Harry Turtledove's "The Road Not Taken": https://eyeofmidas.com/scifi/Turtledove_RoadNotTaken.pdf
Honestly, one of the biggest missteps we have had in the last 100 years is stopping the Apollo program. We would have probably been on Mars in the 80's and reaching out past that by now for sure. In general, I think a lot of people have lost their sense of curiosity and wonder, that need for adventure and discovery.
I remember reading that Clickspring's Chris has committed to giving away the Antikythera device to a random patreon supporter of his once it is completed.
He used to build two of everything.
Once to figure out how to make it, and again to film it.
So he may end up with two of each project, one to keep, another to give away.
Once to figure out how to make it, and again to film it.
So he may end up with two of each project, one to keep, another to give away.
I don't think people have put enough stock in the possibility that the Antikythera device was primarily used for astrology. This would likely have been the primary reason an ancient person would want to know the positions of the stars and planets on a specific date and time.
At the time the two fields weren't seen as separate things as they are now.
Astrology and astronomy were pursued by the same figures, much as Newton pursued alchemy as well as physics.
Astrology and astronomy were pursued by the same figures, much as Newton pursued alchemy as well as physics.
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Great read, love how it has a display. Something for the kings of the era to be amazed by.
No wireless. Only five planets. Lame.
https://hn.algolia.com/?dateRange=all&page=0&prefix=true&que...
This mechanism comes up a lot. Is there a TL;DR about what's new in this particular submission?
This mechanism comes up a lot. Is there a TL;DR about what's new in this particular submission?
The Antikythera mechanism gives me nightmares. Just as the suggestion that a lack of transmissions from intelligent life means the existence of a great filter. The Antikythera mechanism is a strong indicator of technological regression in human beings.
Perhaps more terrifying is the fact that it is not the first time we've regressed or collapsed. The mysterious Late Bronze Age Collapse is another example, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Late_Bronze_Age_collapse Or, the Classic Maya civilization collapse, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Classic_Maya_collapse
It is inconceivable for us to imagine a rapid regression today. Our civilization seems invincible, the knowledge seems to be too widespread. But most of our knowledge is brittle. If you were to send a time capsule forward with the recipes to remake our modern world, including eUV technology. How would you do it? (using extant literature)
Research papers require years of study and background knowledge to fully understand and they fully fail to capture the science involved. Patents are even more inscrutable. We couldn't send our CAD drawings and specifications forward either, because they require specialized knowledge as well. After all, how would they build an iPhone if they don't know how to make screws or glue? Or, the multi-layer PCBs etc.
Another renaissance to recreate our civilization from our published work would be nearly impossible. Or, take centuries to accomplish.
It may be fruitful to imagine ways to fit civilization into a box that can last tens of thousands of years, so that future generations can find it —— post apocalyptic tragedy —— and rapidly recreate our world.
Perhaps more terrifying is the fact that it is not the first time we've regressed or collapsed. The mysterious Late Bronze Age Collapse is another example, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Late_Bronze_Age_collapse Or, the Classic Maya civilization collapse, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Classic_Maya_collapse
It is inconceivable for us to imagine a rapid regression today. Our civilization seems invincible, the knowledge seems to be too widespread. But most of our knowledge is brittle. If you were to send a time capsule forward with the recipes to remake our modern world, including eUV technology. How would you do it? (using extant literature)
Research papers require years of study and background knowledge to fully understand and they fully fail to capture the science involved. Patents are even more inscrutable. We couldn't send our CAD drawings and specifications forward either, because they require specialized knowledge as well. After all, how would they build an iPhone if they don't know how to make screws or glue? Or, the multi-layer PCBs etc.
Another renaissance to recreate our civilization from our published work would be nearly impossible. Or, take centuries to accomplish.
It may be fruitful to imagine ways to fit civilization into a box that can last tens of thousands of years, so that future generations can find it —— post apocalyptic tragedy —— and rapidly recreate our world.
> It is inconceivable for us to imagine a rapid regression today
To the contrary, I'm finding it increasingly likely that I will see the collapse of civilization within my lifetime, and I'm 57. I see two prospective tipping points on the horizon: the collapse of democracy in the U.S. leading to nuclear war, and climate change leading to world-wide food shortages. The former seems likely within 5-10 years, and the latter within 20-30.
(And BTW, I am not feeling anywhere near as sanguine about this as the text above makes it sound.)
To the contrary, I'm finding it increasingly likely that I will see the collapse of civilization within my lifetime, and I'm 57. I see two prospective tipping points on the horizon: the collapse of democracy in the U.S. leading to nuclear war, and climate change leading to world-wide food shortages. The former seems likely within 5-10 years, and the latter within 20-30.
(And BTW, I am not feeling anywhere near as sanguine about this as the text above makes it sound.)
Havent you noticed that people who see dark future post and tell it more often the past 30 years, than people who think "it will all be just fine"?
I remember the late 90s doom and "oh no millenium 2000" gloom predictions, and 2012 nostradamus end of the world maya calendar the end is near. I read about the 80s cold war "will go hot nuclear any time" and can be seen in movies like Terminator.
US will not collapse, no nuclear war will happen, climate change is not even the biggest fuckup we are doing (cutting down the amazon is, biodiversity loss overall), but we post-pone the imminent danger from a scheduled Ice Age.
I remember the late 90s doom and "oh no millenium 2000" gloom predictions, and 2012 nostradamus end of the world maya calendar the end is near. I read about the 80s cold war "will go hot nuclear any time" and can be seen in movies like Terminator.
US will not collapse, no nuclear war will happen, climate change is not even the biggest fuckup we are doing (cutting down the amazon is, biodiversity loss overall), but we post-pone the imminent danger from a scheduled Ice Age.
I was pretty optimistic in 1990, but since then there is new data. Donald Trump was elected president and led a violent insurrection against the government based on a transparent lie with, so far, no negative consequences. If he runs in 2024 he will win the Republican nomination. Unless the Democrats suspend the filibuster to pass voting rights legislation, he will almost certainly be elected president again (because measures are being put in place at the state level to insure that the election is not "stolen" from him again). And I've seen the effects of climate change with my own eyes. The changes are happening with breathtaking speed. The climate where I live is already dramatically different today than it was when I moved here a mere 11 years ago. All of the data from the last 30 years is dramatically worse than the worst-case projections of 1990. Absent some really dramatic technological or political breakthrough, it is a question of when, not if, climate change destroys civilization. It might be longer than 30 years out (I certainly hope so), but it's not 100 years out, not any more.
To me this may imply a sort of built-in "failsafe" against political and economic hegemonies that is a part of human nature. This may be useful to ensure that political systems do not last forever so at least some part of humanity is able to explore alternate ways to construct and operate societies.
Well, that's a cheerful way of looking at it I guess. Personally, I'm a fan of civilization, but maybe that's just a reflection of my rich-white-male privilege.
> Donald Trump was elected president
Oh no, the end of the world is upon us, how could the people chose _that_ kind of guy as president. The people where meant to chouse _our_ woman it was _her_ turn.
Ironic really, you are scared of democracy ending yet as main reason why, because democracy worked.
Oh no, the end of the world is upon us, how could the people chose _that_ kind of guy as president. The people where meant to chouse _our_ woman it was _her_ turn.
Ironic really, you are scared of democracy ending yet as main reason why, because democracy worked.
You left out the important part: Trump incited a violent insurrection against the government based on a transparent lie with, so far, no negative consequences.
Trump's election was not a failure of democracy, merely a failure of common sense among the electorate. The failure of democracy began when Trump tried to get the secretary of state of Georgia to "find 11,000 votes". It continues now that he is successfully promulgating the Big Lie. It will be complete when he is "re-elected" in 2024.
Trump's election was not a failure of democracy, merely a failure of common sense among the electorate. The failure of democracy began when Trump tried to get the secretary of state of Georgia to "find 11,000 votes". It continues now that he is successfully promulgating the Big Lie. It will be complete when he is "re-elected" in 2024.
Why was Trump your indicator that US democracy was failing, and not Bush Jr? IMHO, the latter did far more to destroy American democratic society than Trump - but the wealth and riches he provided through his war crimes seems to occlude this fact from most American's point of view.
Trump is just the latest in a long line of failures one could point at as examples of the destruction of American democracy, and he wasn't even the most effective at altering America's sociopolitical landscape, as Bush and Obama were ..
Trump is just the latest in a long line of failures one could point at as examples of the destruction of American democracy, and he wasn't even the most effective at altering America's sociopolitical landscape, as Bush and Obama were ..
Yes, the decay certainly goes back further than Trump. Before Trump there was Bush and before Bush there was Nixon. You could probably trace it back as far as the JFK and RFK assassinations, maybe further. Some see what is happening now as an extension of the Civil War.
But Trump is unique in that he:
1. Has never accepted his 2020 election defeat
2. Wields enough control over the rank and file of his party to have the power to terminate the career of any Republican who crosses him in any way, and has demonstrated the willingness to use that power without reservation
3. Demanded that election officials to commit election fraud (and was impeached for it, but not removed from office)
4. Incited a violent insurrection against the government and has suffered no negative consequences for it
It is his ability and willingness to use his power to promulgate the Big Lie that the 2020 election was stolen that makes him a much bigger threat to democracy than anything the U.S. has seen since the Civil War.
But Trump is unique in that he:
1. Has never accepted his 2020 election defeat
2. Wields enough control over the rank and file of his party to have the power to terminate the career of any Republican who crosses him in any way, and has demonstrated the willingness to use that power without reservation
3. Demanded that election officials to commit election fraud (and was impeached for it, but not removed from office)
4. Incited a violent insurrection against the government and has suffered no negative consequences for it
It is his ability and willingness to use his power to promulgate the Big Lie that the 2020 election was stolen that makes him a much bigger threat to democracy than anything the U.S. has seen since the Civil War.
If only Al Gore had been a bit more ballsy about having the election stolen from him by Bush .. we probably wouldn't be dealing with the failure of democracy that is manifest in America's wanton destruction of so many other sovereign states and the murder of literally millions of people around the world .. the point is, Americans aren't the only ones who suffer when their democracy is corrupted for military purposes.
I think I've mentioned this before on HN, but I remember a teacher in my highschool class in 1984, asking if we thought there would be a nuclear war with the USSR in our lifetime. I was the only kid out of 30 that didn't think there would be.
Doomsayers are sometimes correct, but usually not, and they are ever-present. And, for some reason, very appealing to many.
Doomsayers are sometimes correct, but usually not, and they are ever-present. And, for some reason, very appealing to many.
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Why would collapse of democracy in the US lead to nuclear war?
If democratically-elected government disappears, something will fill that power void, and they will control that arsenal. Who knows what could happen with them.
>"Who knows what could happen with them."
Same as with the democratic government. Dictators are not suicidal. They prefer to be left alone.
Same as with the democratic government. Dictators are not suicidal. They prefer to be left alone.
Tell the people of Ukraine right now how much Putin wants to be left alone.
I do appreciate your concern about Ukraine but this has nothing to do with Russia being against nuclear proliferation. If it wanted to it would have zero problems seeding those all over the places.
I do appreciate your condescension, but no one said it had to do with something about Russia being for or against proliferation.
they'll fight other countries to deflect from internal problems
Did the collapse of democracy in Russia lead to nuclear war?
It didn't which is great news, but tbh I regard the Russians as more rational than us.
You don't know any Russians then, haha
Or you don't know any self-styled "real Americans".
I'm thinking more of their cold war strategizing, but I also ask you, have you ever met an American QAnon enthusiast? ;)
Nothing new. They were fighting other countries all along. Still not suicidal.
The US is a major nuclear power and is one body that actively works to counter-balance nuclear proliferation in the world.
>"is one body that actively works"
Not true. Unless you count invading other countries under false pretenses as one.
If you think Russia is interested in proliferated I have a nice bridge.
Not true. Unless you count invading other countries under false pretenses as one.
If you think Russia is interested in proliferated I have a nice bridge.
[1] "Preventing the spread of weapons of mass destruction is traditionally a top priority of U.S. foreign policy."
I didn't say anything about Russia.
[1] https://www.nti.org/countries/united-states/
I didn't say anything about Russia.
[1] https://www.nti.org/countries/united-states/
Your post reads as the US is the only one working on NPT. It is not.
As for your reference - US based and owned org is of course totally unbiased. Color me surprised.
As for your reference - US based and owned org is of course totally unbiased. Color me surprised.
I would differentiate "one body" from "the one body" or "the only body." While I didn't explicitly state, "one of many," that was the implied intent.
Another example of similar usage is, "I am one person." This statement does not imply I am the only person. Rather, it eludes to the fact that there are others.
This is just a guess but, while looking through my post and these responses, it appears to me that you are politically charged and might be reading with a heavy confirmation bias. I welcome evidence to the contrary of any of my points. So far, I've only seen conjecture.
Another example of similar usage is, "I am one person." This statement does not imply I am the only person. Rather, it eludes to the fact that there are others.
This is just a guess but, while looking through my post and these responses, it appears to me that you are politically charged and might be reading with a heavy confirmation bias. I welcome evidence to the contrary of any of my points. So far, I've only seen conjecture.
>"one of many," that was the implied intent.
Well I've failed to see the implication but this might be my fault as English is not my first language. If you truly meant "one of many" then we have nothing to argue about. Hence no need to label me being as politically charged.
Well I've failed to see the implication but this might be my fault as English is not my first language. If you truly meant "one of many" then we have nothing to argue about. Hence no need to label me being as politically charged.
Not quite sure how to answer that if it's not already obvious to you. If democracy collapses, the result will almost certainly be Donald Trump being effectively a dictator. He very nearly started a nuclear war on more than one occasion during his first administration when some checks and balances were still in place [1] [2]. Nothing could stop him if he decided to do it again during his second.
[1] https://gizmodo.com/the-pentagon-worried-trump-was-about-to-...
[2] https://www.nbcnews.com/news/military/milley-acted-prevent-t...
[1] https://gizmodo.com/the-pentagon-worried-trump-was-about-to-...
[2] https://www.nbcnews.com/news/military/milley-acted-prevent-t...
>"He very nearly started a nuclear war on more than one occasion during his first administration
The info in the links you've mentioned does not inspire much confidence.
The info in the links you've mentioned does not inspire much confidence.
I'll bet you $1M that civilization doesn't collapse within 30 years!
I would like nothing better than to lose that bet, but I don't think my wife would approve. How about a bottle of your favorite scotch? (Which may well cost $1M 30 years from now.)
Pretty sure it was a joke since if it does collapse he wouldn't have to pay anyway.
You need to re-read the GP comment. He was betting that civilization would not collapse.
If he wins the bet, he gets money. If he loses the bet, money is worthless,
I don't think any of those events will come to pass, but I suspect you might live long enough to see The Singularity arrive, and that might be the harbinger of doom you are seeking.
One could argue that this has already happened: social media is the singularity. The evil AI doesn't have to be implemented entirely in silicon. Indeed, that fact that it runs in part on human brains helps it remain stealthy.
Now that is an interesting take - are you thinking an emergent hive mind is in social media, and that is controlling society? Quite interesting...
More or less. Human brains are an emergent property of a large number of highly interconnected neurons, so I see no reason something similar couldn't emerge from a large number of highly interconnected brains.
But the thing to keep in mind is that this emergent thing is not necessarily conscious or intentional, but if it reaches the point where it self-replicates then it becomes effectively a life form that starts to undergo Darwinian evolution and thus becomes very difficult to get rid of. The point is that all this is (potentially) just a straightforward consequence of the laws of physics, not some sci-fi super-villain going "Bwahahaha! Silly humans!" in the back of data center somewhere.
But the thing to keep in mind is that this emergent thing is not necessarily conscious or intentional, but if it reaches the point where it self-replicates then it becomes effectively a life form that starts to undergo Darwinian evolution and thus becomes very difficult to get rid of. The point is that all this is (potentially) just a straightforward consequence of the laws of physics, not some sci-fi super-villain going "Bwahahaha! Silly humans!" in the back of data center somewhere.
This is epitomised by the word "meme":
an idea, behavior, or style that spreads from person to person within a culture
Yes, I follow your reasoning. I buy the existence of a subtle, self perpetuating public attitude. It may emergently coordinate to the degree it is indistinguishable from an independant living entity. Once it is named, it will be seen and observed everywhere, and blamed for all manner of evils. It's the boogieman, in reality: a manifestation of all our collective fears.
And explains why it is also so messed up at the same time.
Another renaissance to recreate our civilization from
our published work would be nearly impossible. Or,
take centuries to accomplish.
We've long since used up the "easy" sources of energy on this planet - all of the fossil fuels conveniently located near the earth's surface have long been depleted. By the time they could possibly be replenished, the Sun will be nearing the end of its life. So we probably won't be bootstraping our way back to an advanced society via a second fossil fuel-powered industrial revolution similar to the first one.
The remaining energy sources are generally pretty tricky to harness.
For example, even if the knowledge to build nuclear reactors or solar panels is not lost during a civilization collapse, it will be awfully tough to actually get those power sources back online without an existing industrial infrastructure to mine/refine/transport all of the necessary ingredients.
If we get a "second chance" at this civilization thing, the road there is going to be insanely hard even if we're lucky enough to start out with all of the science-y stuff that our first civilization figured out eons ago.
>By the time they could possibly be replenished, the Sun will be nearing the end of its life.
What? No. You're making shit up and passing it as fact.
>Most anthracite and bituminous coals occur within the 299- to 359.2-million-year-old strata of the Carboniferous Period, the so-called first coal age.
>Astronomers estimate that the sun has about 7 billion to 8 billion years left before it sputters out and dies.
There are several other completely made up things in your post.
What? No. You're making shit up and passing it as fact.
>Most anthracite and bituminous coals occur within the 299- to 359.2-million-year-old strata of the Carboniferous Period, the so-called first coal age.
>Astronomers estimate that the sun has about 7 billion to 8 billion years left before it sputters out and dies.
There are several other completely made up things in your post.
However current theories of stellar evolution place the extinction of life on Earth in the range on hundreds of millions of years, due to the increase of its luminosity. For example here's a description of a better climate model [1] extending the time until the surface temperature reaches 70 degrees Celsius to one billion years, whereupon feedback of the water content of the atmosphere results in boiling away all liquid water.
So while the sun may be nowhere near the end of its life, the time of Earth lying in its "Goldilocks zone" is much shorter.
[1] https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2013/12/131216142310.h...
So while the sun may be nowhere near the end of its life, the time of Earth lying in its "Goldilocks zone" is much shorter.
[1] https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2013/12/131216142310.h...
Couldn't you just burn plastic directly? Mine a landfill and burn it up.
Mine it with slave labour to separate the items, and you end up with glass, metals and plastics is amounts that would be worth a fortune to a roman level civilization.
We think of it as garbage, bur that garbage already represents a lot of energy already used to process them to that level.
We think of it as garbage, bur that garbage already represents a lot of energy already used to process them to that level.
Not just to a Roman level civilization; I think it'll be immensely valuable to us in the near future. It's a treasure trove of materials, we just need better refining tech to separate out all the metals and rare earths, reprocess the plastic, etc.
> The Antikythera mechanism is a strong indicator of technological regression in human beings.
Is it evidence of widespread technological regression, or "this small group with strong leadership did amazing things, too bad nobody can do that anymore", or just people not wanting it anymore?
For centuries after it was built, there was no large scale collapse that could bring a widespread regression (there were many localized ones, including on the place that built it), and clockmaking was never considered a lost art or anything like that.
Is it evidence of widespread technological regression, or "this small group with strong leadership did amazing things, too bad nobody can do that anymore", or just people not wanting it anymore?
For centuries after it was built, there was no large scale collapse that could bring a widespread regression (there were many localized ones, including on the place that built it), and clockmaking was never considered a lost art or anything like that.
The mechanism suggests a strong "industrial" base to support it. They had to get the metals from somewhere, find the expert artisans to craft from somewhere else, source the parts, find the tooling etc.
Just as a mass produced pencil isn't just a pencil, it is the capacity to produce the pencil.
They had the capacity to create precision gearing, which suggests a level of mechanical prowess that isn't matched until a century or so before the dawn of the industrial age.
Just as a mass produced pencil isn't just a pencil, it is the capacity to produce the pencil.
They had the capacity to create precision gearing, which suggests a level of mechanical prowess that isn't matched until a century or so before the dawn of the industrial age.
Commercial metalworking stayed around all the time until today. It only increased and improved. (It's made of bronze, it's not like bronze working was lost.)
The tooling may evidence some kind of regression. I really don't know what kind of tooling was needed to create this, although gears by themselves and high precision in a single mechanism do not say much. From the looks of it, this devices requires a lot of theoretical knowledge, but not so much practical one (but that's an uninformed opinion, if you have information, it would be great). The theory was not lost in any way.
The tooling may evidence some kind of regression. I really don't know what kind of tooling was needed to create this, although gears by themselves and high precision in a single mechanism do not say much. From the looks of it, this devices requires a lot of theoretical knowledge, but not so much practical one (but that's an uninformed opinion, if you have information, it would be great). The theory was not lost in any way.
Don’t forget the fact that the mechanism used a model made by Hipparchus, but after Hellenism the Greeks adopted the Ptolemaic geocentric view of the cosmos with epicycles and stuff.
Epicycles delivered more precision but at the cost of much greater complexity. Ultimately it took Kepler to simplify it even more through his iterative equation though I can’t imagine how to turn that into a mechanical model.
The Antikythera mechanism was possible because of the simplicity of the underlying solar system model that lent itself to easy implementation by gears. It’s much more elegant than even modern methods of computing orbits. That’s the main surprise I find in its design…how much they could simplify it (and not how complex the mechanical construction is).
Epicycles delivered more precision but at the cost of much greater complexity. Ultimately it took Kepler to simplify it even more through his iterative equation though I can’t imagine how to turn that into a mechanical model.
The Antikythera mechanism was possible because of the simplicity of the underlying solar system model that lent itself to easy implementation by gears. It’s much more elegant than even modern methods of computing orbits. That’s the main surprise I find in its design…how much they could simplify it (and not how complex the mechanical construction is).
FWIW, the device is called an 'orrery'. When it was made in Syracuse, it wasn't a product of an industrial base, but was a project made by a certain sort of mathematician and scholar doing cutting edge engineering and applied mathematics. The Antikythera one seems to go back to the traditions from Archimedes' workshop which was amazingly advanced. Archimedes wrote a treatise on building them (now lost, alas). Orrery making in something like Archmedes' tradition continued on for hundreds of years outside Syracuse, esp. in Athens and Alexandria, and we have references to orrery making through the ages. The art of making them was a product of libraries and schools where they were created by scholars as an academic craft, not an industrial production facility.
It's not that industrial base.
If devices like the antikythera were commonly produced, we'd find more of them, and descriptions of them. This looks like a one-off achievement.
I'd rather say that this maybe more like a Saturn-5 of the day: a top achievement that required extraordinary efforts, and not very reproducible because of that. Most things around and in its production chain were not nearly as advanced.
If devices like the antikythera were commonly produced, we'd find more of them, and descriptions of them. This looks like a one-off achievement.
I'd rather say that this maybe more like a Saturn-5 of the day: a top achievement that required extraordinary efforts, and not very reproducible because of that. Most things around and in its production chain were not nearly as advanced.
Well some ancient alien conspiracy theories suggest nuclear bombs have been dropped on different parts of the planet.
Mahabharata a short distance from Jodpur in India, which Oppenheimer commented on.
Mohenjo Daro in Pakistan
Nuclear destruction of Sumer linked with the Anunnaki.
Pyramids in other places around the planet besides Egypt, its possible mainstream history isnt telling us everything or we have a sanitised version of history.
Mahabharata a short distance from Jodpur in India, which Oppenheimer commented on.
Mohenjo Daro in Pakistan
Nuclear destruction of Sumer linked with the Anunnaki.
Pyramids in other places around the planet besides Egypt, its possible mainstream history isnt telling us everything or we have a sanitised version of history.
As fun as these speculations are, there is nothing cohesive about it. "which Oppenheimer commented on" - or he just wanted to say something that sounded badass and educated in his "I am become...the destroyer of worlds."
/* Mohenjo Daro in Pakistan Nuclear destruction of Sumer linked with the Anunnaki. */
0 evidence
"Pyramids in other places around the planet besides Egypt, its possible mainstream history isnt telling us everything or we have a sanitised version of history."
Very different pyramids. Other places had houses too. Some of them were square and some round. Could it be ancient aliens?!
/* Mohenjo Daro in Pakistan Nuclear destruction of Sumer linked with the Anunnaki. */
0 evidence
"Pyramids in other places around the planet besides Egypt, its possible mainstream history isnt telling us everything or we have a sanitised version of history."
Very different pyramids. Other places had houses too. Some of them were square and some round. Could it be ancient aliens?!
Unfortunately watching an increasing number of TV programs is like watching/listening to someone talking whilst on drugs, they jump around all over the place, I'm sure its creating ADHD in me as a result.
You might like Jonathan Blow's talk "Preventing the Collapse of Civilization": https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pW-SOdj4Kkk
Also, is your name a reference to the Mars trilogy? Reading that now (:
Also, is your name a reference to the Mars trilogy? Reading that now (:
Yes, it is! I even had the chance to talk to Kim Stanley Robinson about it :)
Did this exchange happen on HN, by chance? Color me curious.
And yet even in antiquity there were people thinking that the nature of their own existence was a recreation of the past from within the future.
We are actually performing early versions of such recreations as we speed towards both destroying ourselves and developing a lifeform that makes us obsolete, and yet many still don't examine the present moment against the past and future.
As for the Bronze Age collapse - in Alexandria around the 2nd century BCE following the conquest of Alexander the Great you had a ton of cultures of the Mediterranean comparing notes on their respective histories.
Most of those notes have been lost to us, but we have the general conclusions they drew which was that an Exodus from Egypt had occurred, it had been many different people and not just one, and they had conquered most of the Mediterranean.
And indeed, there's striking parallels between Ramses II, the Lybian appearing Pharoh with 50 sons, and stories like the Lybian king Danaus as part of Diodorus Siculus's Exodus fleeing Egypt from Aegyptus, his brother with 50 sons.
We know Ramses II captured many different peoples in battle, and that many of the groups captured later appeared as sea peoples, initially allied together with Lybia against Egypt during Ramses II's successor.
It only remains a mystery because of the reluctance of one group to think things occurred at all different to what's written in a single book scribed centuries later, and the reluctance of anyone not in that group to entertain that aspects of what's written in that book are a continuation of an oral history of actual events (though notably altered).
We are actually performing early versions of such recreations as we speed towards both destroying ourselves and developing a lifeform that makes us obsolete, and yet many still don't examine the present moment against the past and future.
As for the Bronze Age collapse - in Alexandria around the 2nd century BCE following the conquest of Alexander the Great you had a ton of cultures of the Mediterranean comparing notes on their respective histories.
Most of those notes have been lost to us, but we have the general conclusions they drew which was that an Exodus from Egypt had occurred, it had been many different people and not just one, and they had conquered most of the Mediterranean.
And indeed, there's striking parallels between Ramses II, the Lybian appearing Pharoh with 50 sons, and stories like the Lybian king Danaus as part of Diodorus Siculus's Exodus fleeing Egypt from Aegyptus, his brother with 50 sons.
We know Ramses II captured many different peoples in battle, and that many of the groups captured later appeared as sea peoples, initially allied together with Lybia against Egypt during Ramses II's successor.
It only remains a mystery because of the reluctance of one group to think things occurred at all different to what's written in a single book scribed centuries later, and the reluctance of anyone not in that group to entertain that aspects of what's written in that book are a continuation of an oral history of actual events (though notably altered).
>If you were to send a time capsule forward with the recipes to remake our modern world, including eUV technology. How would you do it?
Acknowledging that I'm being edgy here...
"What do you get the man who has everything? Might I suggest a gravestone inscribed with the words: so what?” — Simon Munnery
I think I probably just wouldn't do it. In part because I suspect the main motivation is our existential angst more than a genuine desire to help unknown future persons.
Acknowledging that I'm being edgy here...
"What do you get the man who has everything? Might I suggest a gravestone inscribed with the words: so what?” — Simon Munnery
I think I probably just wouldn't do it. In part because I suspect the main motivation is our existential angst more than a genuine desire to help unknown future persons.
Or a copy of ozymandias?
Reminds me of Asimov's Foundation trilogy.
"Seldon explains that his science of psychohistory foresees many alternatives, all of which result in the Galactic Empire eventually falling. If humanity follows its current path, the Empire will fall and 30,000 years of turmoil will overcome humanity before a second Empire arises. However, an alternative path allows for the intervening years to be only one thousand"
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foundation_series#Foundation_(...
"Seldon explains that his science of psychohistory foresees many alternatives, all of which result in the Galactic Empire eventually falling. If humanity follows its current path, the Empire will fall and 30,000 years of turmoil will overcome humanity before a second Empire arises. However, an alternative path allows for the intervening years to be only one thousand"
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foundation_series#Foundation_(...
It's the normal progression of civilizations. When one gets too rusty, it dies to lets its small and better offspring live: those people start from scratch, but they retain knowledge and rebuild all bells and whistles very quickly. We are the fifth. America will be home for the sixth and then, in a thousand years, it will become a history too. This is what Revelation 17:10 talks about, but in a more poetical form.
If you're interested in the subject, I'd recommend the Fall of Civilizations podcast which digs into various civilizations and their decline: https://www.patreon.com/fallofcivilizations_podcast
Or, even better documented, the civilizational collapse in the aftermath of the fall of Western Roman Empire. It recovered in the second half of the medieval period, but in the West, the first few centuries after the fall were truly Dark Ages indeed.
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Some of my friends believe the covid vaccines are part of a depopulation scheme. If they're right then the collapse of our civilization would be happening right now though we might not be conscious of it yet.
Anytime I read about the Antikythera machine I get major “Myst” vibes. If you played it on PC you might know what I mean
Is it just me, or is the Antikythera calling out for a Dr. Who episode tying it to aliens or some other fantastic explanation?
I think there was an attempt in FlashForward, but the series got cancelled.
That show is so underrated. It reminds me of the vibe of Charlie from Always Sunny in front of the bulletin board going on about Pepe Sylvia, but as a thought-provoking sci-fi show.
> in his model, the 223-tooth gear turned much too fast for it to make sense. But in my model, the 223-tooth gear rotates very slowly
Science!
(Clarification: it all sounds very narrative-fallacy to me. Hey, but feel free to downvote the opinion of a contrarian!)
Science!
(Clarification: it all sounds very narrative-fallacy to me. Hey, but feel free to downvote the opinion of a contrarian!)
I think the downvotes are because you are making a very low effort criticism (even with your clarification). If you expand a bit on why it sounds "narrative-fallacy" to you, you might get more traction.
I am sure he mention the engaging a 38 tooth gear that meant a 19 year cycle was done at half the speed first thought was needed.
It is an amazing playlist.