Ask HN: What makes you pessimistic about the future?
Inspired by
Ask HN: What makes you optimistic about the future?
24 comments
Russia's war against Ukraine. I thought that a full scale war in Europe was out of the question, yet it started - and there is no end in sight :-( And now we are entering some kind of recession, due to this madness.
I mean a lot of people used to believe, that history is moving in a direction of progress, as we had some seventy-six years without a major war in Europe (well, not counting the civil war in former Yugoslavia) - however now it seems, that we aren't any better than we used to be.
And there are all these nukes to worry about, when we almost forgot about them.
It now looks as if history is moving in cycles, that's kind of depressing.
I mean a lot of people used to believe, that history is moving in a direction of progress, as we had some seventy-six years without a major war in Europe (well, not counting the civil war in former Yugoslavia) - however now it seems, that we aren't any better than we used to be.
And there are all these nukes to worry about, when we almost forgot about them.
It now looks as if history is moving in cycles, that's kind of depressing.
This war has also weaponized civilian nuclear tech, e.g. Russians use a huge nuclear plant as a weapon depot [1] while at the same time torturing personnel [2]. What could go wrong. Humanity haven't really dealt yet with the terrorist entities of the scale and ambition of Russia.
[1] https://www.wsj.com/articles/russian-army-turns-ukraines-lar...
[2] https://kyivindependent.com/news-feed/mayor-russian-forces-t...
[1] https://www.wsj.com/articles/russian-army-turns-ukraines-lar...
[2] https://kyivindependent.com/news-feed/mayor-russian-forces-t...
That's not "full scale war"... yet. If Russia's emergency Duma meeting tomorrow is to institute a full mobilization, though, we'll be a lot closer...
That's a pretty thin and legalistic (as opposed to pragmatic / de facto) distinction.
there are entire cities that were utterly destroyed and millions of displaced persons - i mean that's quite a big one.
Oh, I agree, it's a big one. It's just not "full scale" yet. There's a lot of room for it to get bigger.
that's as full scale as you can get, I mean if NATO gets involved then it would get nuclear, and in this case there would be no one left to discuss the issue...
The western order of liberal democracy is dying. Former colonies that simply adopted their colonial rulers’ democratic systems are now slowly but surely building systems that are more in line with native ideologies. Many of these ideologies are regressive and illiberal.
That isn’t to say that they are wrong to do so - a people should have the right to build a nation as per their values. But it does mean that a lot of values borrowed from liberal democracy - freedom, equality, rule of law, tolerance, etc. - will die out.
Majoritarianism in many of these countries will give way to authoritarianism. And that’s usually the road leading to strife, war, and persecution of minorities.
That isn’t to say that they are wrong to do so - a people should have the right to build a nation as per their values. But it does mean that a lot of values borrowed from liberal democracy - freedom, equality, rule of law, tolerance, etc. - will die out.
Majoritarianism in many of these countries will give way to authoritarianism. And that’s usually the road leading to strife, war, and persecution of minorities.
What makes me pessimistic - There's time and space to get this right, and we'll waste the chance
This is the same answer I used in the other thread - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=32100524
--- Common text begins ---
As a civilization, we're like a trust fund kid, blowing through our inheritance in a wild spending spree. The wealth? A planetwide pool of stored sunlight in the form of fossil fuels.
We're so used to this wealth, we can't even contemplate what would happen if the balance ran down to zero. Our entire civilization is blind to the nature of our energy sources, and their use in making all of the things we use on a daily basis, including our food.
It's so entrenched, that I struggle to think of a metaphor to use that will get past the default stance here of "yeah, but your example is wrong because"
The amount of Energy Returned On Investment (EROI) used to be 100:1 prior to WWII in the US, we're now down to 15:1. The last civilization wide kicking of the can down the road has already happened
We're fracking the source rocks that would otherwise lead to conventional oil in millions of years. These wells decline at 40% per year. Once we stop drilling them, because the EROI gets too low, there's no new oil left.
We need to take advantage of this second chance, to wake up, and figure out better sources of energy and a way of making them work. The days of an always on grid with a constant fixed price of electricity, regardless of time of day, weather, etc.. are at an end.
We've got a generation to do this, I'd rather we make use of the wealth we have, rather than see it all burned up, and watching billions die in "The Great Simplification" that results as we no longer have the energy to burn to keep everyone not involved in farming fed.
If we gather a community of purpose, who all acknowledge the situation, and work to fix it, we can have an amazing future, instead of collapse.
This is the same answer I used in the other thread - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=32100524
--- Common text begins ---
As a civilization, we're like a trust fund kid, blowing through our inheritance in a wild spending spree. The wealth? A planetwide pool of stored sunlight in the form of fossil fuels.
We're so used to this wealth, we can't even contemplate what would happen if the balance ran down to zero. Our entire civilization is blind to the nature of our energy sources, and their use in making all of the things we use on a daily basis, including our food.
It's so entrenched, that I struggle to think of a metaphor to use that will get past the default stance here of "yeah, but your example is wrong because"
The amount of Energy Returned On Investment (EROI) used to be 100:1 prior to WWII in the US, we're now down to 15:1. The last civilization wide kicking of the can down the road has already happened
We're fracking the source rocks that would otherwise lead to conventional oil in millions of years. These wells decline at 40% per year. Once we stop drilling them, because the EROI gets too low, there's no new oil left.
We need to take advantage of this second chance, to wake up, and figure out better sources of energy and a way of making them work. The days of an always on grid with a constant fixed price of electricity, regardless of time of day, weather, etc.. are at an end.
We've got a generation to do this, I'd rather we make use of the wealth we have, rather than see it all burned up, and watching billions die in "The Great Simplification" that results as we no longer have the energy to burn to keep everyone not involved in farming fed.
If we gather a community of purpose, who all acknowledge the situation, and work to fix it, we can have an amazing future, instead of collapse.
An alternate phrasing for this topic (and one I've employed a few times) is "what are the big problems?"
This avoids presupposing a conclusion (the future is bright/dark), and focuses on specific issues, mechanisms, or dynamics.
If you're inclined to answer that you're not pessimistic, or that the future is bright, "what are the big problems?" still focuses discussion on challenges and either what makes them challenging or how they might be addressed.
There's also the hierarchy of failure (or inverting senses: requisite success chain) in problem resolution:
https://old.reddit.com/r/dredmorbius/comments/2fsr0g/hierarc...
This avoids presupposing a conclusion (the future is bright/dark), and focuses on specific issues, mechanisms, or dynamics.
If you're inclined to answer that you're not pessimistic, or that the future is bright, "what are the big problems?" still focuses discussion on challenges and either what makes them challenging or how they might be addressed.
There's also the hierarchy of failure (or inverting senses: requisite success chain) in problem resolution:
https://old.reddit.com/r/dredmorbius/comments/2fsr0g/hierarc...
We're witnessing the collapse of quite a few countries at the moment. Sri Lanka is the big one. Pakistan seemed to have gotten pretty close to serious financial issues. Somalia has a war-related food crisis. I don't worry so much about collapse for Ukraine but there are a lot of people displaced. There's going to be refugee crises on top of refugee crises soon, and it's a challenge that neither north america or europe is able to accommodate.
We really really should have used that almost 15 year financial boom to invest in desalination tech and vertical farming, I believe we could have made some incredible breakthroughs that would significantly reduce the amount of world hunger we're about to see.
We really really should have used that almost 15 year financial boom to invest in desalination tech and vertical farming, I believe we could have made some incredible breakthroughs that would significantly reduce the amount of world hunger we're about to see.
Easy :-)
- Global economic system is not operating properly (inflation, interest rates, taxes)
- Tensions between countries leading to global problems/wars and all sort of issues
- Climate change and environmental pollution
- Lack of clean energy, high dependency to petroleum/gas
- Human stupidity
- Global economic system is not operating properly (inflation, interest rates, taxes)
- Tensions between countries leading to global problems/wars and all sort of issues
- Climate change and environmental pollution
- Lack of clean energy, high dependency to petroleum/gas
- Human stupidity
[deleted]
The thought that the planet's resources allow a decent living for everyone but our behavior entails a decadent life for the few and overshoot and crash dynamics and that psychological/organisational deficiencies keep it so until a catastrophe.
* Human nature
* The current political climate, specifically the apparent (re)-rise of strong strains of nationalism, populism, and borderline (if not outright) fascism.
* Climate change
* The way technologies that nominally exist to further benevolent ends are bent to serve harmful ends. Take, for example, the use of the Internet to enable massive surveillance, and to distribute disinformation, as opposed to its more noble purpose as a way to enable "the global village", interconnect people, further scientific research and cultural sharing, etc.
* The constant lingering threat of nuclear war, or other man-made catastrophe (for example, a release of a human engineered virus that causes a pandemic like COVID, only worse)
etc.
And just to balance the equation, here's my answer to the other question "What makes you optimistic about the future?"
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=32100686
* The current political climate, specifically the apparent (re)-rise of strong strains of nationalism, populism, and borderline (if not outright) fascism.
* Climate change
* The way technologies that nominally exist to further benevolent ends are bent to serve harmful ends. Take, for example, the use of the Internet to enable massive surveillance, and to distribute disinformation, as opposed to its more noble purpose as a way to enable "the global village", interconnect people, further scientific research and cultural sharing, etc.
* The constant lingering threat of nuclear war, or other man-made catastrophe (for example, a release of a human engineered virus that causes a pandemic like COVID, only worse)
etc.
And just to balance the equation, here's my answer to the other question "What makes you optimistic about the future?"
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=32100686
Violent revolution from the bottom is basically impossible now for the major powers. The elites can do whatever they want.
Pessimistic people!
We live in an age of wonders - our most recent achievement alone would have been unbelievable just 5 years ago: a vaccine technology that can have a turnover counted in days. We're now talking about using it to develop vaccines against new things like EBV!
Yet many people, mostly in Europe (but sadly now in the US costs too), seem to always believe the sky is falling - moving from one explanation to another as needed: if it's not Covid, then it's monkeypox - or a war. Or the price natural gas.
From my American perspective, they sure love complaining, but don't seem to like very much finding solutions (ex: spending money on an Army to protect them instead of depending on our generosity, using the same fracking technology that has provided us so much oil & gas that it's simpler to let the methane flares burn...)
Noticing how common that attitude is - so much that is now has name ("doomerism") and a motto ("the world is burning in front of our eyes") makes me very pessimistic about the future.
We live in an age of wonders - our most recent achievement alone would have been unbelievable just 5 years ago: a vaccine technology that can have a turnover counted in days. We're now talking about using it to develop vaccines against new things like EBV!
Yet many people, mostly in Europe (but sadly now in the US costs too), seem to always believe the sky is falling - moving from one explanation to another as needed: if it's not Covid, then it's monkeypox - or a war. Or the price natural gas.
From my American perspective, they sure love complaining, but don't seem to like very much finding solutions (ex: spending money on an Army to protect them instead of depending on our generosity, using the same fracking technology that has provided us so much oil & gas that it's simpler to let the methane flares burn...)
Noticing how common that attitude is - so much that is now has name ("doomerism") and a motto ("the world is burning in front of our eyes") makes me very pessimistic about the future.
Nuclear weapons will 100% be used again. All it takes is one sociopathic dictator who thinks everyone else is weak, and we know that the power is a magnet for sociopaths and any country can be turned into dictatorship within a decade give or take. Putin of today or another dictator of tomorrow, does not matter. It does not even matter which country is going to pull the trigger, the invasion of Ukraine has started the race to acquire nuclear weapons and all countries have to participate or perish. The gun is on the stage and therefore it will go off.
Humanity.
The present
[deleted]
Hypercapitalism.
CNN, MSNBC, Fox News and reading the crap produced by other media corporations.
Reading news about politics is a great way to fuck up your mental state and become extremely pessimistic.
Reading news about politics is a great way to fuck up your mental state and become extremely pessimistic.
My own idiocy? I suppose that's what makes me pessimistic about my future. Or are you talking about everybody's future?
- Everybody's future: Well, there are specific aspects of psychological perception that still, despite all that evolution, don't transfer well between HN-style communities (where it's a latent gift) and more bell-curvy social discourse. (The same is true in reverse btw) We are getting closer but there are still huge gaps. For example, people still insist on labeling things they don't know anything about, and making decisions in that context. We have a very crude, near-backwards ability to talk about or deal with the unknown. This is really hard news for UAP research, in the extreme case. But it's also just terrible news for a planet that needs to do a lot of future-planning very soon. Planning for the future involves immediate and extended contact with the unknown, as well as things like thinking in terms of probability.
- My future: I can write software to automate and run huge parts of my life. But I still can't reliably make and keep a doctor's appointment. I get lost in the manual aspects of the process and then place too much trust in my ability to track my macros or whatever. And when I do get to the doctor, I second-guess a lot of what goes down during my exams. For example I am a huge pessimist when it comes to our reliance on one-off tests and would rather take the same test 15 times over a span of weeks than trust a single test of anything. Is that smart, because I learned a lot about errors in tests? No, it's dumb insofar as it keeps me away from taking any tests.
Just some examples!
- Everybody's future: Well, there are specific aspects of psychological perception that still, despite all that evolution, don't transfer well between HN-style communities (where it's a latent gift) and more bell-curvy social discourse. (The same is true in reverse btw) We are getting closer but there are still huge gaps. For example, people still insist on labeling things they don't know anything about, and making decisions in that context. We have a very crude, near-backwards ability to talk about or deal with the unknown. This is really hard news for UAP research, in the extreme case. But it's also just terrible news for a planet that needs to do a lot of future-planning very soon. Planning for the future involves immediate and extended contact with the unknown, as well as things like thinking in terms of probability.
- My future: I can write software to automate and run huge parts of my life. But I still can't reliably make and keep a doctor's appointment. I get lost in the manual aspects of the process and then place too much trust in my ability to track my macros or whatever. And when I do get to the doctor, I second-guess a lot of what goes down during my exams. For example I am a huge pessimist when it comes to our reliance on one-off tests and would rather take the same test 15 times over a span of weeks than trust a single test of anything. Is that smart, because I learned a lot about errors in tests? No, it's dumb insofar as it keeps me away from taking any tests.
Just some examples!