Balaji bets $1M that USD will suffer hyperinflation within 90 days(twitter.com)
twitter.com
Balaji bets $1M that USD will suffer hyperinflation within 90 days
https://twitter.com/balajis/status/1636797265317867520
22 comments
I’m convinced he is trolling, he posted another tweet where he says this:
> This isn't your typical fractional reserve situation. The problem is that there isn't enough in the banks on a mark-to-market basis to cover withdrawals.
How are people going to withdraw money and not put it into another bank? This guy is just saying ridiculous shit for attention, there’s no way he’s this stupid.
Again, his thesis is that bank withdrawals will cause banks to collapse and hyperinflation. It’s not possible for this to happen, there’s not enough physical cash to cause banks to collapse from withdrawals, and if you take money out of a bank in a non-cash form, where will you put it?
> This isn't your typical fractional reserve situation. The problem is that there isn't enough in the banks on a mark-to-market basis to cover withdrawals.
How are people going to withdraw money and not put it into another bank? This guy is just saying ridiculous shit for attention, there’s no way he’s this stupid.
Again, his thesis is that bank withdrawals will cause banks to collapse and hyperinflation. It’s not possible for this to happen, there’s not enough physical cash to cause banks to collapse from withdrawals, and if you take money out of a bank in a non-cash form, where will you put it?
>How are people going to withdraw money and not put it into another bank? This guy is just saying ridiculous shit for attention, there’s no way he’s this stupid.
Maybe it goes something like this: AIUI the act of pulling money out of the banks will crash them, one by one. Along the way the government will continue to print to try to backstop it and restore confidence. The act of this just speeds up the demise. The money will get centralized to the GSIBs. But they have the same problem.
Maybe it goes something like this: AIUI the act of pulling money out of the banks will crash them, one by one. Along the way the government will continue to print to try to backstop it and restore confidence. The act of this just speeds up the demise. The money will get centralized to the GSIBs. But they have the same problem.
If we accept the hypothesis, based on available priors, that he's not an idiot – then what's he up to? Speculation: could he view making and losing the bet as worthwhile investment because he's holding enough bitcoin that media attention would increase concerns of hyperinflation driving bitcoin's value enough to offset the cost of losing the bet?
He will either lose his money or be known as the next George Soros (those who are old enough may remember that he once broke the British pound and several other minor currencies)
[deleted]
How many bitcoins can I bet? Balaji is offering to sell a put on BTC with a $1M strike price (which is ITM by $974k) and the underlying is at ~$26k, 90 days to expiration. All you have to do to buy the put is put up 1 BTC ($26k) to potentially win $974k.
I don’t think he thought this all the way through.
I don’t think he thought this all the way through.
I think he is saying if it hyper inflates (they need to agree upon exact criteria) then he gets his 1M back + 1BTC. I don't think he is saying 1BTC > 1M USD.
Obviously he’d get his $1M back, why wouldn’t he? I never said he wouldn’t…
He is selling a BTC put that expires in 90 days and is worth $800-900k for $26k, that’s all I said.
Balaji is betting the hyperinflation makes the BTC worth more than $1M hyper inflated US dollars. If hyperinflation happens, the BTC/USD pair will go up in dollar value.
He is selling a BTC put that expires in 90 days and is worth $800-900k for $26k, that’s all I said.
Balaji is betting the hyperinflation makes the BTC worth more than $1M hyper inflated US dollars. If hyperinflation happens, the BTC/USD pair will go up in dollar value.
That's not what I am saying. I am saying that BTC may be worth 100k, and the USD 500k and he still wins the bet (under the interpretation I mentioned above).
Nevermind he just updated the thread.
>Terms of the bet: ideally someone can set up a smart contract where BTC is worth >$1M in 90 days, then I win. If it's worth less than $1M in 90 days, then the counterparty gets the $1M in USD.
https://twitter.com/balajis/status/1636827051419389952?s=20
>Terms of the bet: ideally someone can set up a smart contract where BTC is worth >$1M in 90 days, then I win. If it's worth less than $1M in 90 days, then the counterparty gets the $1M in USD.
https://twitter.com/balajis/status/1636827051419389952?s=20
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wonder if there's a way to pool funds like some kind of ethereum contract. I know ethereum won't talk to bitcoin, but maybe there's a way to do it?
There's something called WBTC[1]. It's very popular.
[1]: https://wbtc.network
[1]: https://wbtc.network
EDIT: This comment is entirely wrong! Disregard.
Do note this isn't _real_ wrapped bitcoin. It's essentially a stablecoin which price matches a bitcoin; it is not backed by any bitcoins unfortunately.
Real wrapped BTC would require a decentralised bridge which isn't exactly trivial.
Do note this isn't _real_ wrapped bitcoin. It's essentially a stablecoin which price matches a bitcoin; it is not backed by any bitcoins unfortunately.
Real wrapped BTC would require a decentralised bridge which isn't exactly trivial.
Wrong :) Look at the website.
Hyperinflation is usually defined as an increase of 50% monthly (i.e. from 100% to 150%).
x40 in 90 days is in increase of 240% monthly (i.e. from 100% to 340%).
So it's a lot of inflation. This is not unheard, but it's very high and usually happens in countries with bigger problems. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperinflation#Notable_hyperin...
[Hi from Argentina, our peak was in July 1989 with 196% (i.e. from 100% to 296%), but the peak was short, we didn't have three months with 200% of mensual inflation. See the graph in https://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hiperinflaci%C3%B3n_argentina_...]
x40 in 90 days is in increase of 240% monthly (i.e. from 100% to 340%).
So it's a lot of inflation. This is not unheard, but it's very high and usually happens in countries with bigger problems. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperinflation#Notable_hyperin...
[Hi from Argentina, our peak was in July 1989 with 196% (i.e. from 100% to 296%), but the peak was short, we didn't have three months with 200% of mensual inflation. See the graph in https://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hiperinflaci%C3%B3n_argentina_...]
Balaji, please - get out of your bubble. Go talk to your neighbors. They're all concerned about where to go for their kids spring break, the next episode of Mandalorian, and whether or not their bracket is still in contention.
Let's game out what it would take for 50% inflation MoM -- you'd need severe supply issues up and down for every possible good, including goods created domestically. You'd need the Fed to fire up the printing presses in a way that surpasses even 2008, which, good luck on that one. You'd need interest rates to go negative. You'd need the real estate market to do a 180 from "nothing's really selling right now" to "people can't buy houses fast enough". You'd need a confluence of black swan events to happen globally in order to knock the dollar from being a reserve currency. How does that possibly happen?
Just dumb, all around.