xPrize Wildfire – $11M Prize Competition(xprize.org)
xprize.org
xPrize Wildfire – $11M Prize Competition
https://www.xprize.org/prizes/wildfire
74 comments
Yep, you don't fight massive fires with whizbang technical novelties. In the context of fires big enough to matter the only tools in your toolbox that are sufficiently scalable are very low tech.
> In the context of fires big enough to matter the only tools in your toolbox that are sufficiently scalable are very low tech.
Isn't that the whole point of this X Prize, to improve the tools available?
Isn't that the whole point of this X Prize, to improve the tools available?
The #1 tool in our toolbox is prevention. This is a multipart prize, with $5m going to fire detection, and $5m going to fire response. To me it feels like pushing for research into reducing fevers when the virus is the problem.
The low tech solutions are typically fuel load reduction, fire breaks, controlled burns, and community education. The first two are standard techniques used by the forestry industry, and they funnel a lot more than $11m into R&D.
That being said, new tech for monitoring and controlling controlled burns would be great.
Biden-Harris cut loose almost $200m for wildfire defense a month ago. California got more than half of it, WA got $25m, and OR got $24m. I'm very interested to see the results.
https://www.usda.gov/media/press-releases/2023/03/20/biden-h...
The low tech solutions are typically fuel load reduction, fire breaks, controlled burns, and community education. The first two are standard techniques used by the forestry industry, and they funnel a lot more than $11m into R&D.
That being said, new tech for monitoring and controlling controlled burns would be great.
Biden-Harris cut loose almost $200m for wildfire defense a month ago. California got more than half of it, WA got $25m, and OR got $24m. I'm very interested to see the results.
https://www.usda.gov/media/press-releases/2023/03/20/biden-h...
This.
In some place it’s the natural order to have forest fire from time to time.
If we prevent them long enough a huge one will happen at the worst time (dry, windy with lots of material to burn. At this point there very little you can do.
In the east cost there is rain regularly, so the usual thing is that wood, leaves rot instead, fires happen rarely.
If we prevent them long enough a huge one will happen at the worst time (dry, windy with lots of material to burn. At this point there very little you can do.
In the east cost there is rain regularly, so the usual thing is that wood, leaves rot instead, fires happen rarely.
All of these work better than suppression:
- Bury your power lines. If only PG&E would invest in fire safety… check list of funders in TFA… scratch head.
- Rake your forests. (Or “remove ladder fuels”, as it is now called.)
- Controlled burns.
I’d like my $11M now. Can we spend it on burying lines under an emergency order that bypasses California permitting?
- Bury your power lines. If only PG&E would invest in fire safety… check list of funders in TFA… scratch head.
- Rake your forests. (Or “remove ladder fuels”, as it is now called.)
- Controlled burns.
I’d like my $11M now. Can we spend it on burying lines under an emergency order that bypasses California permitting?
"Raking the forest" while a totally viable approach in very specific strategic areas is just way way too expensive and time consuming in the general case. California has like 30 million acres of forest land. Removing brush from a single acre is a multi-day job with the right equipment. It just can't scale.
After the devastating bushfires in Eastern Australia in the summer of 2019/20 I started sketching ideas of a robot to that do that. My idea is that would identify fuel that could be ameliorated (possibly harvesting and burning in the machine, or mulching and burying). If it was solar powered it could possibly just plod along. That said I think more controlled burns such as were practised by our indigenous people seems to be the most practical.
Thanks for this comment. When reading the part where the xprize site says "especially in the expanding Wildland-Urban Interface, where homes, businesses, and major infrastructure are most at risk"
It reminded me of the excerpt from the film 'Tending the Wild' about California natives where one argues one needs to learn to 'smell the smoke': https://www.youtube.com/watch?t=42&v=Z-EXQ9be8mE&feature=you...
To me, this is more of a predicament around what our human expectations are and how to appropriately live, especially if populations are desiring to build settlement structures in ways that create wildlife urban interface.
It reminded me of the excerpt from the film 'Tending the Wild' about California natives where one argues one needs to learn to 'smell the smoke': https://www.youtube.com/watch?t=42&v=Z-EXQ9be8mE&feature=you...
To me, this is more of a predicament around what our human expectations are and how to appropriately live, especially if populations are desiring to build settlement structures in ways that create wildlife urban interface.
Wildfire suppression: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wildfire_suppression#Tactics
History of wildfire suppression in the United States: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_wildfire_suppressio...
Controlled burn: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Controlled_burn
> A controlled or prescribed burn, also known as hazard reduction burning, [1] backfire, swailing, or a burn-off, [2] is a fire set intentionally for purposes of forest management, fire suppression, farming, prairie restoration or greenhouse gas abatement. A controlled burn may also refer to the intentional burning of slash and fuels through burn piles. [3] Fire is a natural part of both forest and grassland ecology and controlled fire can be a tool for foresters.
Hydrogel: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hydrogel
Aerogel: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aerogel
Water-based batteries have less fire risk FWIU
"1,000% Difference: Major Storage Capacity in Water-Based Batteries Found" (2023) https://scitechdaily.com/1000-difference-major-storage-capac...
> The metal-free water-based batteries are unique from those that utilize cobalt in their lithium-ion form. The research group’s focus on this type of battery stems from a desire for greater control over the domestic supply chain as cobalt and lithium are commonly sourced from outside the country. Additionally, the batteries’ safer chemistry could prevent fires.
History of wildfire suppression in the United States: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_wildfire_suppressio...
Controlled burn: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Controlled_burn
> A controlled or prescribed burn, also known as hazard reduction burning, [1] backfire, swailing, or a burn-off, [2] is a fire set intentionally for purposes of forest management, fire suppression, farming, prairie restoration or greenhouse gas abatement. A controlled burn may also refer to the intentional burning of slash and fuels through burn piles. [3] Fire is a natural part of both forest and grassland ecology and controlled fire can be a tool for foresters.
Hydrogel: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hydrogel
Aerogel: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aerogel
Water-based batteries have less fire risk FWIU
"1,000% Difference: Major Storage Capacity in Water-Based Batteries Found" (2023) https://scitechdaily.com/1000-difference-major-storage-capac...
> The metal-free water-based batteries are unique from those that utilize cobalt in their lithium-ion form. The research group’s focus on this type of battery stems from a desire for greater control over the domestic supply chain as cobalt and lithium are commonly sourced from outside the country. Additionally, the batteries’ safer chemistry could prevent fires.
That's a good list of useful links. From my experience as a home owner in a high-risk area, I'd add some of the things which can make a big difference are often surprisingly simple. In addition to managing your own land properly, make sure you have a large enough water tank to support firefighters in protecting your land. We got a well tank five times bigger than our typical usage needs. Another key thing is to put your tank next to where a fire truck can access it easily and get the proper adapter installed so the fire truck can direct connect to your tank (it's not included in most).
We also widened the access road on our property to support larger fire trucks and dozers. Obviously, fire-resistant construction materials and techniques are a huge help and not all require extensive retrofitting. There are spark resistant attic air access covers which are easy to install. We needed to re-roof and remodel anyway so we went with fire-resistant roofing and concrete siding. It's also important to have non-cellular local communications because the cell towers often go out first (our community uses 2-meter handsets for emergency comms). Doing those things along with the fact we've cleared all trees and brush out beyond 300 feet and only have metal out-buildings caused our local fire chief to comment that if everyone did what we've done, protecting the whole region would be three times easier. We also have enough generator power (on auto-failover) to pump our own well water to wet down our house and surroundings. With that our house has a really strong probability of surviving with no external help even if our property is directly hit by a major wildfire.
Edit to Add: I forgot to mention another key thing. If you live in a place like this, there's often only a single narrow public road serving your property and others nearby. Make sure you have transportation that'll let you get out cross-country if the road is blocked by either fire or heavy equipment. We have AWD ATVs fueled and always ready to go (plus they are handy around big properties like this). Between us and our neighbors we have a plan to get everyone on our road out without outside help - including a few elderly folk who will need assistance. Firefighters needing to rescue unprepared residents diverts vital resources from fighting the fire and clogs roads - which just makes everything else worse.
We also widened the access road on our property to support larger fire trucks and dozers. Obviously, fire-resistant construction materials and techniques are a huge help and not all require extensive retrofitting. There are spark resistant attic air access covers which are easy to install. We needed to re-roof and remodel anyway so we went with fire-resistant roofing and concrete siding. It's also important to have non-cellular local communications because the cell towers often go out first (our community uses 2-meter handsets for emergency comms). Doing those things along with the fact we've cleared all trees and brush out beyond 300 feet and only have metal out-buildings caused our local fire chief to comment that if everyone did what we've done, protecting the whole region would be three times easier. We also have enough generator power (on auto-failover) to pump our own well water to wet down our house and surroundings. With that our house has a really strong probability of surviving with no external help even if our property is directly hit by a major wildfire.
Edit to Add: I forgot to mention another key thing. If you live in a place like this, there's often only a single narrow public road serving your property and others nearby. Make sure you have transportation that'll let you get out cross-country if the road is blocked by either fire or heavy equipment. We have AWD ATVs fueled and always ready to go (plus they are handy around big properties like this). Between us and our neighbors we have a plan to get everyone on our road out without outside help - including a few elderly folk who will need assistance. Firefighters needing to rescue unprepared residents diverts vital resources from fighting the fire and clogs roads - which just makes everything else worse.
Great comments and advice. My neighborhood burned in the #GlassFire [0]. While our property was severely damaged, our home survived, due to many of the hardening techniques you mentioned and great work by CalFire. We had evacuated the night before and were staying in a local hotel watching the flames advance on our house via our security cameras. (Redundant net connections and a generator kept everything online). As our deck started to burn I called 911 to report it, figuring nothing would happen. About 20 minutes later a fireman walked into the frame of the camera and 2 minutes later the deck was out and the house was saved. I was cheering like I won the Super Bowl. So I really appreciate all the hardening I did, on-site water and CalFire.
When we rebuilt the exterior, I installed a set of sprinklers that ring the house and cover the roof/deck. They are not designed to fight the fire, instead I can activate them before a fire arrives to get things good and wet. This perimeter reduces the available fuels, reduces the heat load on the structure and reduces the risk of ember cast. It was a fun project with an ESP controller to sequence the valves and provide remote control.
Over the last few years, the Alert Wildfire Camera system, now over 700 cameras, has been a valuable resource. [1] Early detection of the fire, before it grows to extreme size has made a big difference. In the North Bay of California last year, this early detection and CalFire having nearby Air Attack resources on standby kept many small fires from becoming large ones in this area.
Another great resource is the Watch Duty app. [2] This is a non-profit, volunteer, but extremely professional service. They started in Northern California and are rapidly expanding. It is the go-to resource for Wildfire related information in the area.
Lastly, if anyone is looking at the X prize for satellite detection, I’d spend some time researching MODIS/VIIRS data products from NASA. [3]. A good starting point in some of the challenges of wildfire detection from space.
[0]. Fire tornado outside my window. https://youtu.be/1tZjWqh3-EU
[1]. https://www.alertwildfire.org/
[2]. https://www.watchduty.org/
[3]. https://firms.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/
When we rebuilt the exterior, I installed a set of sprinklers that ring the house and cover the roof/deck. They are not designed to fight the fire, instead I can activate them before a fire arrives to get things good and wet. This perimeter reduces the available fuels, reduces the heat load on the structure and reduces the risk of ember cast. It was a fun project with an ESP controller to sequence the valves and provide remote control.
Over the last few years, the Alert Wildfire Camera system, now over 700 cameras, has been a valuable resource. [1] Early detection of the fire, before it grows to extreme size has made a big difference. In the North Bay of California last year, this early detection and CalFire having nearby Air Attack resources on standby kept many small fires from becoming large ones in this area.
Another great resource is the Watch Duty app. [2] This is a non-profit, volunteer, but extremely professional service. They started in Northern California and are rapidly expanding. It is the go-to resource for Wildfire related information in the area.
Lastly, if anyone is looking at the X prize for satellite detection, I’d spend some time researching MODIS/VIIRS data products from NASA. [3]. A good starting point in some of the challenges of wildfire detection from space.
[0]. Fire tornado outside my window. https://youtu.be/1tZjWqh3-EU
[1]. https://www.alertwildfire.org/
[2]. https://www.watchduty.org/
[3]. https://firms.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/
TIL about building materials and fire hazard:
Fire resistance rating: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fire-resistance_rating
R-value: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/R-value_(insulation)
Here's a prompt to help with selecting sustainable building materials: """Generate a JSON-LD document of data with citations comparing building materials by: R-value, Fire Resistance Rating, typical structural integrity longevity in terms of years, VOCs at year 1 and year 5, and Sustainability factors like watt-hours and carbon and other pollutive outputs to produce, transport, distribute, install, and maintain . Include hempcrete (hemp and lime, which can be made from algae), rammed earth with and without shredded hemp hurds, wood, structural concrete, bamboo, and other emerging sustainable building materials.
Demonstrate loading the JSON data into a Pandas DataFrame and how to sort by multiple columns (with references to the docs for the tools used), and how to load the data into pygwalker."""
Fire resistance rating: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fire-resistance_rating
R-value: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/R-value_(insulation)
Here's a prompt to help with selecting sustainable building materials: """Generate a JSON-LD document of data with citations comparing building materials by: R-value, Fire Resistance Rating, typical structural integrity longevity in terms of years, VOCs at year 1 and year 5, and Sustainability factors like watt-hours and carbon and other pollutive outputs to produce, transport, distribute, install, and maintain . Include hempcrete (hemp and lime, which can be made from algae), rammed earth with and without shredded hemp hurds, wood, structural concrete, bamboo, and other emerging sustainable building materials.
Demonstrate loading the JSON data into a Pandas DataFrame and how to sort by multiple columns (with references to the docs for the tools used), and how to load the data into pygwalker."""
> a set of sprinklers that ring the house and cover the roof/deck. They are not designed to fight the fire, instead I can activate them before a fire arrives to get things good and wet. This perimeter reduces the available fuels, reduces the heat load on the structure and reduces the risk of ember cast. It was a fun project with an ESP controller to sequence the valves and provide remote control.
I searched a bit and couldn't find any smart home integrations that automatically hopefully turn the lawn and garden sprinklers on when a fire alarm goes off.
Are there any good reasons to not have that be a standard default feature if both smoke detectors and sprinklers are connected to a smart home system?
I searched a bit and couldn't find any smart home integrations that automatically hopefully turn the lawn and garden sprinklers on when a fire alarm goes off.
Are there any good reasons to not have that be a standard default feature if both smoke detectors and sprinklers are connected to a smart home system?
Coming from an operations perspective, you want to look at the downstream consequences of automation which depend on the details of the installed system. E.g. from this thread: automation might drain water from the 5x oversized well tank before firefighters arrive, seems to me that whether or not that is preferable depends on the details.
> Hydrogel
From https://twitter.com/westurner/status/1572664456210948104 :
>> What about #CO² -based #hydrogels for fire fighting?
>> /? Hydrogel firefighting (2022) https://www.google.com/search?q=hydrogel+firefighting […]
>> IDEA: How to make #hydrogels (and #aerogels) from mostly just {air*, CO², algae, shade, and sunshine,} [on earth, and eventually in space,]?
From https://twitter.com/westurner/status/1572664456210948104 :
>> What about #CO² -based #hydrogels for fire fighting?
>> /? Hydrogel firefighting (2022) https://www.google.com/search?q=hydrogel+firefighting […]
>> IDEA: How to make #hydrogels (and #aerogels) from mostly just {air*, CO², algae, shade, and sunshine,} [on earth, and eventually in space,]?
> Aerogel
From https://twitter.com/westurner/status/1600820322567041024 :
> Problem: #airogel made of CO² is an excellent insulator that's useful for many applications; but it needs structure, so foam+airogel but that requires smelly foam
> Possible solution: Cause structure to form in the airogel.
Backpack shoulder straps on e.g. Jansport backpacks have a geometric rubber mesh that's visible through a plastic window.
## Possible methods of causing structure to form in aerogel
- EM Hz: literally play EM waves (and possibly deliberately inverse convolutions) at the {#airogel,} production process
- Titratation
- Centrifugation
- "Volt grid": apply volts/amps/Hz patterns with a probe array
- Thermal/photonic bath 3d printing
- Pour a lattice-like lens as large as the aerogel sections and allow solar to cause it to slowly congeal to a more structural form in advantageous shapes
- Die-casting, pressure-injection molding
From https://twitter.com/westurner/status/1600820322567041024 :
> Problem: #airogel made of CO² is an excellent insulator that's useful for many applications; but it needs structure, so foam+airogel but that requires smelly foam
> Possible solution: Cause structure to form in the airogel.
Backpack shoulder straps on e.g. Jansport backpacks have a geometric rubber mesh that's visible through a plastic window.
## Possible methods of causing structure to form in aerogel
- EM Hz: literally play EM waves (and possibly deliberately inverse convolutions) at the {#airogel,} production process
- Titratation
- Centrifugation
- "Volt grid": apply volts/amps/Hz patterns with a probe array
- Thermal/photonic bath 3d printing
- Pour a lattice-like lens as large as the aerogel sections and allow solar to cause it to slowly congeal to a more structural form in advantageous shapes
- Die-casting, pressure-injection molding
> Water-based batteries have less fire risk FWIU
CAES Compressed Air Energy Storage and Gravitational potential energy storage also have less fire risk then Lithium Ion batteries.
FWIU we already have enough abandoned mines in the world to do all of our energy storage needs?
Could CAES tanks filled with air+CO² help suppress wildfire?
CAES Compressed Air Energy Storage and Gravitational potential energy storage also have less fire risk then Lithium Ion batteries.
FWIU we already have enough abandoned mines in the world to do all of our energy storage needs?
Could CAES tanks filled with air+CO² help suppress wildfire?
> FWIU we already have enough abandoned mines in the world to do all of our energy storage needs?
Here's a prompt for this one, for the AI:
"Let's think step-by-step: how much depth or volume of empty mines are needed to solve for US energy storage demand with gravitational potential energy storage drones on or off tracks in abandoned mines? Please respond with constants and code as Python SymPy code with a pytest test_main and Hypothesis @given decorator tests"
Here's a prompt for this one, for the AI:
"Let's think step-by-step: how much depth or volume of empty mines are needed to solve for US energy storage demand with gravitational potential energy storage drones on or off tracks in abandoned mines? Please respond with constants and code as Python SymPy code with a pytest test_main and Hypothesis @given decorator tests"
yep. xprize is a pile of money thay billionaires threw around to avoid taxes and get rockets... then forgot about.
some craft ong parasites infiltrated it and now it's a huge money maker for them. and they sell the prizes to anyone needing PR. did you just leaked oil near first world waters? let's do a xprize on oil clean up drones ny highschoolers!
the org chart is a bunch of VPs taking home a cool mi a year, with a bunch of sales person underneath (director of charity. director of giving. etc. look at their open positions page at any point in time. they churn these fast too.)
they will not focus on any meaningful result, like you outlined. only on the innovation as a cult PR.
for example, their rain forest one can be solved tomorrow by keeping the US out of couping countries with rainforest, if you were to trust data. but i guess that won't get the vote of a Hollywood actor or a swiss professor who literally have a course on using drones for ecology preservation.
some craft ong parasites infiltrated it and now it's a huge money maker for them. and they sell the prizes to anyone needing PR. did you just leaked oil near first world waters? let's do a xprize on oil clean up drones ny highschoolers!
the org chart is a bunch of VPs taking home a cool mi a year, with a bunch of sales person underneath (director of charity. director of giving. etc. look at their open positions page at any point in time. they churn these fast too.)
they will not focus on any meaningful result, like you outlined. only on the innovation as a cult PR.
for example, their rain forest one can be solved tomorrow by keeping the US out of couping countries with rainforest, if you were to trust data. but i guess that won't get the vote of a Hollywood actor or a swiss professor who literally have a course on using drones for ecology preservation.
The access issue is huge and crosses over in to other issues (Inaccessible public land). I didn’t do wildland firefighting when I was a volunteer firefighter but the other people around talked about it a lot. There were areas that had to pay more to be served by neighboring agencies.
Not sure that completely stopping wildfires is a good idea as many species of plants depend on fire for seed germination. I think controlled burns may be the way to go instead of preventing wildfires completely
And the competition is not about completely stopping wildfires, as is clearly stated on the linked page. They target what they call Extreme Wildfire Events which are roughly 3% of all wildfires. The focus is on detecting and suppressing those, as those 3% of all wildfires account for 80% of the total damages.
Controlled burns have been shown to be carbon negative. The destroy invasive species that have not evolved to handle the natural processes native to an area.
Humans are actually the biggest issue, once again. Prescribed burns are healthy for ecosystems and for the planet itself.
Humans are actually the biggest issue, once again. Prescribed burns are healthy for ecosystems and for the planet itself.
[deleted]
Anyone interested in linking up to register as a team for either track?
“Track A: Space-Based Wildfire Detection and Intelligence
In the Space-Based Wildfire Detection & Intelligence track, teams will have one minute to accurately detect all fires across a landscape larger than entire states or countries, and 10 minutes to precisely characterize and report data with the least false positives to two ground stations.
Track B: Autonomous Wildfire Response
In the Autonomous Wildfire Response track, teams have 10 minutes to autonomously detect and suppress a high-risk fire in a 1,000 km2, environmentally challenging area, leaving any decoy fires untouched.”
I think these would be a fun problems work on. You can reach me at: Fire(AT)cynical.io
I don’t work in this space normally, currently I work as an SRE, but I am motivated. :)
“Track A: Space-Based Wildfire Detection and Intelligence
In the Space-Based Wildfire Detection & Intelligence track, teams will have one minute to accurately detect all fires across a landscape larger than entire states or countries, and 10 minutes to precisely characterize and report data with the least false positives to two ground stations.
Track B: Autonomous Wildfire Response
In the Autonomous Wildfire Response track, teams have 10 minutes to autonomously detect and suppress a high-risk fire in a 1,000 km2, environmentally challenging area, leaving any decoy fires untouched.”
I think these would be a fun problems work on. You can reach me at: Fire(AT)cynical.io
I don’t work in this space normally, currently I work as an SRE, but I am motivated. :)
I worked with a friend competing for a 0.5M prize to build a robot to collect material on the moon. The project was sponsored by NASA. After that experience, I would be hesitant to enter these kinds of completions. At first it seemed straight forward but as things got closer to the end, tiny details about how to the communicate with the robot and other things were changed. It was discouraging to put in all that work, have everything tested perfectly and then at the last minute some rule change comes along or they change things in the environment that was already tested in.
Best way to end destructive fires is to light destructive fires.
The real purpose of fighting these fires seem to be protecting the logging industry.
The majority of the logging industry is a good thing for the planet. When you log sustainably, you take fixated carbon, turn it into a product that can be used, then allow the area to regrow, fixated more carbon as a building product. The vast majority of the time, it's a win-win.
The negatives are supplying things like cheap paper to the post office for marketing departments to across to spam people using US Postal Mail. _Thats_ what needs to be stopped, as it's just a waste.
The negatives are supplying things like cheap paper to the post office for marketing departments to across to spam people using US Postal Mail. _Thats_ what needs to be stopped, as it's just a waste.
> The majority of the logging industry is a good thing for the planet.
Absolutely not. The amount of carbon sequestered is inconsequential relative to the habitat destruction, habitat fragmentation, species going extinct, etc.
Absolutely not. The amount of carbon sequestered is inconsequential relative to the habitat destruction, habitat fragmentation, species going extinct, etc.
For clear felling in a rainforest, sure. For clear felling in a timber plantation, probably? For selective logging outside particularly sensitive areas, nah.
I honestly would be very surprised if they didn't make more CO2 logging and turning that tree into a building product than they sequester. Postal spam is likely even more damaging.
Trees are roughly 50% carbon by weight. Each pound of carbon represents 3.67 pounds of cleaned carbon dioxide.
Each pound of lumber represents 1.8 pounds of carbon dioxide our of the air. It looks like both logging trucks and flatbed timber trucks can carry around 24 tons of lumber, which would be 43 tones of carbon dioxide.
Sawmills are efficient, and would make a negligible contribution to total carbon. Transportation would be the biggest carbon cost. At least on the East Cost US there's a lot of timber growing so distances aren't too far. Let's say 200 miles total from logging to sawmill to use. 400 miles round trip. Using average US freight truck emissions that's about 0.07 tons of carbon dioxide released.
So let's round that up a bit and say 43 tons sequestered for for 0.1 tons expended. Seems like a win.
Each pound of lumber represents 1.8 pounds of carbon dioxide our of the air. It looks like both logging trucks and flatbed timber trucks can carry around 24 tons of lumber, which would be 43 tones of carbon dioxide.
Sawmills are efficient, and would make a negligible contribution to total carbon. Transportation would be the biggest carbon cost. At least on the East Cost US there's a lot of timber growing so distances aren't too far. Let's say 200 miles total from logging to sawmill to use. 400 miles round trip. Using average US freight truck emissions that's about 0.07 tons of carbon dioxide released.
So let's round that up a bit and say 43 tons sequestered for for 0.1 tons expended. Seems like a win.
You haven't sequestered anything by getting it to the sawmill, that's only one portion of the journey. Also Using the Environmental Protection Agency’s Greenhouse Gas Equivalency Calculator, one ton of carbon is equivalent to 413 gallons of gasoline, so I think your math is off.
Another way of thinking about this: if you burned 1,600 gallons of gasoline to sequester one 3,000 lb pine tree, you'd be net ahead.
Unless I'm really off on my math.
Unless I'm really off on my math.
You can't get ahead if you're pulling carbon out of the ground. That's the fundamental problem. Go ahead and burn all of the carbon you want, as long as it's not coming from long-term storage (e.g. fossil fuels), and is rather already part of the carbon cycle (e.g. trees).
I did do my math wrong. 220 gallons of gasoline for 3,000 lbs of timber
There is very little focus on protecting logging and a lot of focus on protecting suburban sprawl. We live further and further into ecosystems that up until recently could have burned with minimal impact to humans. Now those same forests are full of cabin-mansions and summer homes of people who are rich enough for the system to care about them.
In my Canadian province (BC) most of the trees (and fires) are where people don't live, it's very much about protecting their #1 export (tied with Coal)
[deleted]
Spoken like someone who hasn't had to spend weeks with off-the-charts smoke-based air quality problems, followed by hundreds of thousands of people having to replace air filters in houses and cars.
I live in the pacific northwest... If they light the fires in Spring when it's still wet, you don't get the same magnitude of fire in the summer. It would also help if they didn't spray the areas afterwards with round-up so that Aspen (a fire break species) doesn't grow, so that they can plant round-up ready Pine (a species that promotes fires).
Forest management is crucial, and prescribed burns are an important element there, but it does nothing to stop other wildfires, like the Vantage Highway fire and the one which destroyed so much property around Lind, WA. Not all wildfires are forest fires.
Why do you get that impression?
Because not all wildfires are forest fires, and even when they are they can occur in wildlands which are not subject to logging. Some people see "wildfire" and think about the impact on people near the fire as well as downwind communities. Other people see the term and immediately leap to economic considerations.
>The real purpose of fighting these fires seem to be protecting the logging industry.
also, the rural property owners.
also, the rural property owners.
It's not really a competition at putting out wildfires, moreso detecting and tracking them. There are 3 separate prizes, so to speak.
$5M Autonomous Wildfire Response Track
$5M Space-Based Wildfire Detection and Intelligence Track
$1M Lockheed Martin Accurate Detection Intelligence Bonus Prize
$5M Autonomous Wildfire Response Track
$5M Space-Based Wildfire Detection and Intelligence Track
$1M Lockheed Martin Accurate Detection Intelligence Bonus Prize
Unless I'm misreading this, it doesn't include passive fire mitigation approaches.
For example, for low-frost areas of California -- which is about half the state currently (expanding all the time), we developed models for planting bananas and irrigating with recycled water, producing a profitable crop yield and providing a non-flammable barrier at the wildland-urban interface:
https://raghavan.usc.edu/papers/ediblefirebuffers-biorxiv21....
For example, for low-frost areas of California -- which is about half the state currently (expanding all the time), we developed models for planting bananas and irrigating with recycled water, producing a profitable crop yield and providing a non-flammable barrier at the wildland-urban interface:
https://raghavan.usc.edu/papers/ediblefirebuffers-biorxiv21....
The tagline "ending" wildfires is definitely misleading as of course they are a natural occurrence. But climate change has made them increasingly intense and frequent and although this may also be "natural" in a way it is also increasingly irreversibly destructive as the forests are not replacing themselves "naturally" but rather with invasive or otherwise undesirable species.
Xprize stuff is of course somewhat self-serving and this requires real investment to address (I am writing about one such effort in another tab) but better awareness and intelligence is not a bad thing. No one is talking about eliminating controlled burns or other measures, in fact as the environment macro factors shift we need more information to make informed decisions about when and how to do those.
It does serve the logging industry sure, but also major national forests and parks that serve many purposes. Fisheries and fishing companies benefit from watershed restoration and species-based protections but we don't think of it that way. Besides logging is not inherently evil, where do you think all those compostable paper products come from? A better timber industry is needed to support renewables and wildfire mitigation is a part of that evolution.
Xprize stuff is of course somewhat self-serving and this requires real investment to address (I am writing about one such effort in another tab) but better awareness and intelligence is not a bad thing. No one is talking about eliminating controlled burns or other measures, in fact as the environment macro factors shift we need more information to make informed decisions about when and how to do those.
It does serve the logging industry sure, but also major national forests and parks that serve many purposes. Fisheries and fishing companies benefit from watershed restoration and species-based protections but we don't think of it that way. Besides logging is not inherently evil, where do you think all those compostable paper products come from? A better timber industry is needed to support renewables and wildfire mitigation is a part of that evolution.
Wildfires aren't really the problem on a global scale. They are a bit of a pain in Australia, and US West coast sure.
The real problematic fires are currently man-made and entirely purposefully lit, i.e slash and burn agriculture. They are destroying the air and huge amounts of rainforest and jungle in places like Indonesia, Cambodia, Laos, Thailand, Myanmar, Brazil, etc.
So while I commend the effort I think the bigger problem at hand is working out how to switch these agriculture systems over to more modern techniques and prevent further destruction of perhaps irreplaceable forests.
Most wildfires are generally in fire-prone areas where fires is a frequent and necessary part of life, detecting it sooner to save lives is good, developing better back-burning techniques to reduce intensity during fire season is also good. Just not as much impact on the world as aforementioned agricultural burning.
Even though we are at the tail end of the burning season in SEA you can still see how massive the problem is from this satelite detector run by NASA: https://firms.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/map/
The real problematic fires are currently man-made and entirely purposefully lit, i.e slash and burn agriculture. They are destroying the air and huge amounts of rainforest and jungle in places like Indonesia, Cambodia, Laos, Thailand, Myanmar, Brazil, etc.
So while I commend the effort I think the bigger problem at hand is working out how to switch these agriculture systems over to more modern techniques and prevent further destruction of perhaps irreplaceable forests.
Most wildfires are generally in fire-prone areas where fires is a frequent and necessary part of life, detecting it sooner to save lives is good, developing better back-burning techniques to reduce intensity during fire season is also good. Just not as much impact on the world as aforementioned agricultural burning.
Even though we are at the tail end of the burning season in SEA you can still see how massive the problem is from this satelite detector run by NASA: https://firms.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/map/
Eh, I think they’re more than “a bit of a pain” in Australia. Bushfire season always kills a few people every year, but it’s only because of us taking fires very seriously and having defense in depth and early evacuation protocols that it doesn’t kill way more. There are cases like 2009 where more than 170 people died, which still may not sound like much for a population of 20 million, but it was mostly in the Kinglake and Marysville areas (roughly 100 deaths out of the area’s population of several thousand). It is a very grave risk with very serious mitigation efforts that largely work. If fire management and response were to break down even a little bit, though, the number of deaths will skyrocket. XPRIZE success on wildfires will be deeply appreciated here.
Yeah I grew up in rural Australia. I get why it would be useful.
Just travelling opened my eyes to much bigger fire problems is all. The pollution caused by slash and burn is estimated to cause ~11k deaths a year in Thailand alone, I imagine the numbers are much worse in Myanmar, Cambodia and Laos.
I'm not saying I don't appreciate improvements in detecting and maybe preventing bush fires just trying to raise awareness of a larger more dangerous issue in the world that gets little to no attention because it's outside of Western media sphere.
Just travelling opened my eyes to much bigger fire problems is all. The pollution caused by slash and burn is estimated to cause ~11k deaths a year in Thailand alone, I imagine the numbers are much worse in Myanmar, Cambodia and Laos.
I'm not saying I don't appreciate improvements in detecting and maybe preventing bush fires just trying to raise awareness of a larger more dangerous issue in the world that gets little to no attention because it's outside of Western media sphere.
I am a bit wary of arguments from pollution or other indirect deaths due to fire. (I do accept them, but I am still wary.)
For example, the 2019-20 bushfire season is cited as 33 direct and 417 indirect deaths. Direct deaths vary mostly with fire detection, response, and evacuation. Indirect deaths vary mostly with fire volume and wind patterns (19-20 killed so many because the weather abnormally pushed pollution into heavily populated areas, and kept it there for an abnormally long time). It seems hard to control fire volume (and really hard to control weather patterns), while it seems easy to control detection, response, and evacuation.
I do take your point that it seems easy to control fire volume specifically for slash-and-burn agriculture in South East Asia, as those are mostly artificially created fires and we could stop them from doing that.
For example, the 2019-20 bushfire season is cited as 33 direct and 417 indirect deaths. Direct deaths vary mostly with fire detection, response, and evacuation. Indirect deaths vary mostly with fire volume and wind patterns (19-20 killed so many because the weather abnormally pushed pollution into heavily populated areas, and kept it there for an abnormally long time). It seems hard to control fire volume (and really hard to control weather patterns), while it seems easy to control detection, response, and evacuation.
I do take your point that it seems easy to control fire volume specifically for slash-and-burn agriculture in South East Asia, as those are mostly artificially created fires and we could stop them from doing that.
One of Australia's mining magnates has been supporting a similar initiative through his non-profit for the last few years with the goal of having any forest fire extinguished (probably managed) within an hour [1].
He's tipped into the XPrize as well [2].
[1]https://www.minderoo.org/fire-and-flood-resilience/fire-shie... [2] https://www.afr.com/world/north-america/andrew-forrest-chips...
He's tipped into the XPrize as well [2].
[1]https://www.minderoo.org/fire-and-flood-resilience/fire-shie... [2] https://www.afr.com/world/north-america/andrew-forrest-chips...
This reminds me of the competition to try and stop Asian carp from hitting the great lakes: https://www.outdoorlife.com/stop-asian-carp-earn-1-million/
I hope that's enough to generate some innovation in the area to solve a very large and growing problem.
I hope that's enough to generate some innovation in the area to solve a very large and growing problem.
I wonder what format the winners’s submission would be. Maybe I’m missing something going through the website.
Would it be similar to that of a white paper? Or an actual demo. Or additional working detection hardware…
Under the past challenges, one mentions re-engineering a covid mask, so the end point is clear.
For this one, it feels much more open ended. Exciting, but I’m also quite curious, if anyone has an idea or examples.
Would it be similar to that of a white paper? Or an actual demo. Or additional working detection hardware…
Under the past challenges, one mentions re-engineering a covid mask, so the end point is clear.
For this one, it feels much more open ended. Exciting, but I’m also quite curious, if anyone has an idea or examples.
I've read a lot of answers which suggest the usual things that are considered in the wider community, so it is a bit surprising that there are no AI type solutions put forth in this site for hackers.
Surely some way to detect and extinguish the beginnings - where these escape notice far from human eyes and noses - has a coding or robotics solution?
Surely some way to detect and extinguish the beginnings - where these escape notice far from human eyes and noses - has a coding or robotics solution?
Yeah a bunch. Satellite monitoring of lightning strikes has been happening for years.
We also have hot spot detection from himawari and other satellites.
Also very common to have aircraft do FLIR camera runs over the bush on high danger days.
A few startups/researchers are looking at distributed sensor arrays with microphones and thermometers to detect ignitions earlier. That’s mostly in plantation forestry at this stage.
There’s also some work being done to enable the thermal/linescan flights from drones rather than aircraft. Idea being to bring the cost down and thus coverage up.
We also have hot spot detection from himawari and other satellites.
Also very common to have aircraft do FLIR camera runs over the bush on high danger days.
A few startups/researchers are looking at distributed sensor arrays with microphones and thermometers to detect ignitions earlier. That’s mostly in plantation forestry at this stage.
There’s also some work being done to enable the thermal/linescan flights from drones rather than aircraft. Idea being to bring the cost down and thus coverage up.
Fire is healthy for the ecosystem. What if instead of fighting the fires, we hardened our dwellings in some way so that they are mildly annoying instead of community ending?
Buried utilities, thick brick walls, bunker designs, breaker areas around infrastructure, drone tech to identify and, if possible, cull tumbleweeds, etc.
Buried utilities, thick brick walls, bunker designs, breaker areas around infrastructure, drone tech to identify and, if possible, cull tumbleweeds, etc.
Sponsored in part by PG&E a major cause of wildfires. Seems like a bit of deflection to me.
While a nice thought, the timeline (<18mo for the space-based sensor track) isn't aligned for developing anything truly new or revolutionary, just some quick reaction rehashing of existing tech (read: now with 'AI').
Increasing groundwater will lead to much less wildfire, because trees can bring up groundwater up to hydrate the landscape. There are many ways communities can work to recharge groundwater in their area.
I’m a VC specializing in startups addressing wildfire. If I can be helpful to anyone thinking about this problem, I’m bill at convectivecapital.com
Nothing like a video thumbnail of the entire planet on fire to make me question your intent.
It seems like the prize is not evaluated based on being able to predict wildfire behavior, but specifically on technologies for quashing wildfires as they start. The former makes a lot of sense, while the latter assumes an outdated perspective on wildland management.
Who does this serve?
Who does this serve?
It serves the people whose houses are burned and the even larger population who has to live in smoke-polluted air for days or weeks at a time. The prize targets extreme wildfire events, as it says explicitly. Not one of the prizes relates to quashing anything, it's all detection and tracking.
Then someone should probably inform their copywriter that "End Destructive Wildfires" is not an accurate framing of the goals. More like "End Community Destruction By Wildfires"
The copy is fine, because it's not intended for consumption by robots who cannot derive context. Anyone unwilling to read the entire front page, which contains specifics as to the type and scale of wildfires targeted, is unlikely to either find much success as a contestant or otherwise have a meaningful impact on either the xPrize or wildfires.
Relevant article that explains how Trump may have actually been correct in mitigating forest fires by "raking the floor," stemming from a conversation he had with Finland's president:
https://www.talouselama.fi/uutiset/finns-mock-trump-on-rakin...
Before the downvotes, please read the article. I have no political affiliation in the US, and this may be one of the only things Trump sorta maybe got right.
https://www.talouselama.fi/uutiset/finns-mock-trump-on-rakin...
Before the downvotes, please read the article. I have no political affiliation in the US, and this may be one of the only things Trump sorta maybe got right.
The issues are more often political, economic and systemic than they are not knowing effective ways to further reduce risks and harm. Things like properly managed controlled burns are under-utilized because they are politically controversial. Enacting and enforcing codes mandating land management around private structures are politically unpopular. Out where I live, the local fire rangers just point-blank tell property owners "If you don't clear out all the brush and downed trees within a couple hundred feet of your structures, we're defending your house after the others that meet code" but no politician is willing to tell voters that. Worse, land owners continue to get permits issued to construct permanent dwellings in isolated locations which are extremely difficult to defend. If they want to build there, I say let them but also issue fair warning if they choose to proceed, they are on their own in the event of fire. Volunteer firefighters shouldn't need to risk their lives to defend houses which should never have been built in inaccessible, indefensible locations.