After a brutal stretch, cryptocurrencies are surging(npr.org)
npr.org
After a brutal stretch, cryptocurrencies are surging
https://www.npr.org/2023/12/26/1220603847/crypto-cryptocurrency-bitcoin-ftx-binance-cz-bankman-fried
67 comments
Exactly, you can buy any $ amount that you want.
Way back in Nov 2020, Paypal opened up crypto transactions and for the hell of it, I bought $100 each of bitcoin and ethereum. I haven't touched it at all.
Today, it is worth a combined $742.28. ETH is up 381%, while BTC is up 161%.
It has been a fun experiment and I plan to donate it all to charity at some point.
Way back in Nov 2020, Paypal opened up crypto transactions and for the hell of it, I bought $100 each of bitcoin and ethereum. I haven't touched it at all.
Today, it is worth a combined $742.28. ETH is up 381%, while BTC is up 161%.
It has been a fun experiment and I plan to donate it all to charity at some point.
I think for true believers this is dispiriting news; to become an actual currency we use in everyday life its needs to stabilize and stop these wild swings. Find its “true value” and set, stop this wild price discovery process.
If the true value is speculation, it will never stabilize.
And it needs to be inflationary. But this is "cursing in the church" for the typical right-wing, "liberal" BTC maxi
That doesn't make sense. The value of anything can be volatile if you price it in units of a volatile currency. 1 BTC is still 1 BTC, just as 1 USD is still 1 USD. 1 USD isn't worth the same amount of Argentine pesos as it was yesterday, nor is 1 BTC.
If an apple was priced in BTC, you wouldn't care if it was worth a different amount of rupees or ounces of gold yesterday, just as you only care about the dollars and cents on the price tag now.
USD is sure as hell not stable. It's unstable by design - it is constantly declining in value as the money printers continue to churn. If you are hoping for a stable BTC-USD then you are hoping for a bizarre and unlikely situation where BTC declines in value at the exact same rate as the USD. I don't understand.
If an apple was priced in BTC, you wouldn't care if it was worth a different amount of rupees or ounces of gold yesterday, just as you only care about the dollars and cents on the price tag now.
USD is sure as hell not stable. It's unstable by design - it is constantly declining in value as the money printers continue to churn. If you are hoping for a stable BTC-USD then you are hoping for a bizarre and unlikely situation where BTC declines in value at the exact same rate as the USD. I don't understand.
> That doesn't make sense. The value of anything can be volatile if you price it in units of a volatile currency.
This is only true if you are holding the thing for the sake of holding it. Generally currencies, as a medium of exchange, are held for the purposes of later use in buying goods and services: so while 1 BTC is 1 BTC, the fact that sometimes it would take 1 BTC to (e.g.) buy a car, something 2 BTC, somethings 3, makes it less useful for knowing if you have (saved) enough for trade.
Similarly for treating currencies as a store of value: is x BTCs enough for retirement? If it keeps jumping around, how do you have "enough"?
> USD is sure as hell not stable. It's unstable by design - it is constantly declining in value as the money printers continue to churn.
Yes, because having it stay exactly the same in value is impossible (and generally undesirable), and having it go up in value (deflation), is considered even worse. An inflexible monetary system is not a good thing.
This is only true if you are holding the thing for the sake of holding it. Generally currencies, as a medium of exchange, are held for the purposes of later use in buying goods and services: so while 1 BTC is 1 BTC, the fact that sometimes it would take 1 BTC to (e.g.) buy a car, something 2 BTC, somethings 3, makes it less useful for knowing if you have (saved) enough for trade.
Similarly for treating currencies as a store of value: is x BTCs enough for retirement? If it keeps jumping around, how do you have "enough"?
> USD is sure as hell not stable. It's unstable by design - it is constantly declining in value as the money printers continue to churn.
Yes, because having it stay exactly the same in value is impossible (and generally undesirable), and having it go up in value (deflation), is considered even worse. An inflexible monetary system is not a good thing.
Indeed. It'd be curious if someone started publishing a CPI basket priced in BTC just so we got to see the in/(de)flationary metrics alongside USD terms just to have a fair comparison. Shouldn't be hard as it's just a matter of factoring in the price of BTC on at the time the normal CPI data is calculated.
Surely someone's got a few lines of python in 'em to be up to the task...
Surely someone's got a few lines of python in 'em to be up to the task...
> Indeed. It'd be curious if someone started publishing a CPI basket priced in BTC […]
This was done in Canada accidentally: at one point Pierre Poilievre (a right-leaning politician) put forward cryptocurrencies as a hedge against inflation:
> Conservative leadership candidate Pierre Poilievre said Monday a government led by him would do more to normalize cryptocurrencies like bitcoin and ethereum in Canada to "decentralize" the economy and reduce the influence of central bankers.
* https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/poilievre-bitcoin-policy-1....
> As early as September 2021, then-finance critic Poilievre touted “digital currencies … giving people an opportunity to protect themselves against inflation.” Six months later, as a Conservative Party of Canada leadership candidate, he doubled down. At a campaign event at a restaurant, Poilievre bought a shawarma with Bitcoin and extolled “the freedom to use other money, such as Bitcoin… Choice and competition can give Canadians better money and … let Canadians opt out of inflation with the ability to opt into cryptocurrencies.”
* https://www.nationalobserver.com/2023/01/10/opinion/pierre-p...
If this advice was actually followed:
> The number of bitcoins needed to pay for shawarmas, groceries, gas, and housing is up 73.1 per cent compared with 5.2 per cent annual inflation measured in Canadian dollars.
* https://www.hilltimes.com/story/2023/03/29/poilievres-over-i...
Poilievre seems to no longer hold any:
* https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/cryptocurrency-political-co...
While not having a very inflationary currency is certainly important, not having a deflationary one is even more important, and one that is somewhat predictable (at least over 'short' time frames like <3 years) is especially important. BTC, being the poster child for cryptocurrencies, hardly seems to fit the latter two criteria.
This was done in Canada accidentally: at one point Pierre Poilievre (a right-leaning politician) put forward cryptocurrencies as a hedge against inflation:
> Conservative leadership candidate Pierre Poilievre said Monday a government led by him would do more to normalize cryptocurrencies like bitcoin and ethereum in Canada to "decentralize" the economy and reduce the influence of central bankers.
* https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/poilievre-bitcoin-policy-1....
> As early as September 2021, then-finance critic Poilievre touted “digital currencies … giving people an opportunity to protect themselves against inflation.” Six months later, as a Conservative Party of Canada leadership candidate, he doubled down. At a campaign event at a restaurant, Poilievre bought a shawarma with Bitcoin and extolled “the freedom to use other money, such as Bitcoin… Choice and competition can give Canadians better money and … let Canadians opt out of inflation with the ability to opt into cryptocurrencies.”
* https://www.nationalobserver.com/2023/01/10/opinion/pierre-p...
If this advice was actually followed:
> The number of bitcoins needed to pay for shawarmas, groceries, gas, and housing is up 73.1 per cent compared with 5.2 per cent annual inflation measured in Canadian dollars.
* https://www.hilltimes.com/story/2023/03/29/poilievres-over-i...
Poilievre seems to no longer hold any:
* https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/cryptocurrency-political-co...
While not having a very inflationary currency is certainly important, not having a deflationary one is even more important, and one that is somewhat predictable (at least over 'short' time frames like <3 years) is especially important. BTC, being the poster child for cryptocurrencies, hardly seems to fit the latter two criteria.
[deleted]
Come on - there is a difference between mild currency fluctuations and wild swings in value (relative to all other currencies, not just USD). You know it, I know it, GP knows it, and this kind of nitpicking isn’t helpful to anyone. Nobody wants a Zimbabwe dollar currency.
As someone said, we had already started to see the return of the "have fun staying poor" comments.
Random media picking up on the hype is the signal you should buy stuff to dump it in a couple of months on other people's FOMO.
Random media picking up on the hype is the signal you should buy stuff to dump it in a couple of months on other people's FOMO.
The apparent comfort of the community with Tether is proof for me that crypto is nothing but the greater fool theory playing out over and over until the music really stops for one last time.
Complex things must be looked at from many different angles before one can try and draw conclusions about them,
Willingly choosing to restrict yourself to one very narrow aspect (tether) of a rich and complex ecosystem such as Bitcoin and deriving a definitive conclusion from that narrow and restrictive point of view is very likely going to lead you to an incorrect outcome.
And even if, by miracle, you happen to predict the correct outcome, it'll be by sheer luck, not on the strength of your analysis, thereby lending no credibility whatsoever to your ability to predict things in general.
Willingly choosing to restrict yourself to one very narrow aspect (tether) of a rich and complex ecosystem such as Bitcoin and deriving a definitive conclusion from that narrow and restrictive point of view is very likely going to lead you to an incorrect outcome.
And even if, by miracle, you happen to predict the correct outcome, it'll be by sheer luck, not on the strength of your analysis, thereby lending no credibility whatsoever to your ability to predict things in general.
A very small dataset, but people I talked to about Tether (even early on) didn’t trust it. It was just so useful a functionality to have they were willing to use it expecting it to someday fall apart.
So the music-stops metaphor is apt, “greater fool theory” I’m not so sure — collectible NFTs? Yeah.
So the music-stops metaphor is apt, “greater fool theory” I’m not so sure — collectible NFTs? Yeah.
If retail investors still have fun money to splash on bitcoin, I'm worried more inflation may be in our future.
Or maybe retail investors are more worried about inflation (realizing it's ruining them anyway) and buying BTC as a hedge? (doesn't matter if it is one or not, it's about what they believe)
Inflation means the Fed will increase interest rates, which means there isn't much money sloshing around for speculators to put into Bitcoin. Which is why BTC went down when inflation was high, and now is going back up after the Fed signaled interest rate cuts next year because inflation is going down. So it doesn't sound anything like an inflation hedge because the demand for it isn't constant.
Bitcoin is tracking tech stocks speculation more than being stable during inflation.
Bitcoin is tracking tech stocks speculation more than being stable during inflation.
yep, lack of disposable income is why poor people practically never buy drugs. See, the money supply is too tight and they cant borrow, they dont earn anything, so they simply can't pay for drugs or alcohol. This is why low-income segment has the lowest substance abuse percentages ever. /s
If you give poor drug addicts more money they're going to use that money to buy mroe drugs, so I don't get what you're saying.
Prood that BTC is inversely correlated with inflation.
https://news.cryptorank.io/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/photo_...
Prood that BTC is inversely correlated with inflation.
https://news.cryptorank.io/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/photo_...
Retail? Try Blackrock.
There's Bitcoin ETF's whose approval is imminent.
Never mind the fact that it's been able to be held in 401(k)'s for over a year now.
And while that sounds sort of nuts, consider that in the 70s, people looked at gold investors askance considering that given that it was no longer money and had very few industrial uses, it looked like quite an overvalued commodity.
That bubble hasn't burst yet. Maybe don't hold your breath too much.
My big concern is what happens when the original wallet structure can be broken by quantum computers. Modern wallets aren't vulnerable, but there's enough BTC floating around in lost wallets that the influx of liquidity could be quite an event, to say the least, when it hits markets.
There's Bitcoin ETF's whose approval is imminent.
Never mind the fact that it's been able to be held in 401(k)'s for over a year now.
And while that sounds sort of nuts, consider that in the 70s, people looked at gold investors askance considering that given that it was no longer money and had very few industrial uses, it looked like quite an overvalued commodity.
That bubble hasn't burst yet. Maybe don't hold your breath too much.
My big concern is what happens when the original wallet structure can be broken by quantum computers. Modern wallets aren't vulnerable, but there's enough BTC floating around in lost wallets that the influx of liquidity could be quite an event, to say the least, when it hits markets.
Had to open this up just to see what year it was from, as it's been true so many times in the past.
I guess every cycle brings with it people who weren't around for the last one though.
And to think I was told I'd "missed it" when I bought at $140...
I guess every cycle brings with it people who weren't around for the last one though.
And to think I was told I'd "missed it" when I bought at $140...
There's going to be a brain drain and the number of startups that are basically OpenAI API+React is going to plummet.
Twitter nowadays has almost exclusively ads for ‘drops’ and ‘pumps’ and all other kinds of crypto scams.
Indeed, but I wouldn't blame crypto for what Twitter allows for ads. Given all the companies that have pulled out, they have to get revenue from somewhere.
I also daily block multiple "hot girls" fake profiles liking my 6 month old tweets.
I also daily block multiple "hot girls" fake profiles liking my 6 month old tweets.
Just as a friendly reminder, if you bought any major crypto when Matt Damon told you “Fortune favors the brave”, you’re still technically down on your initial purchase.
This is probably the media trying to get some bags pumped.
This is probably the media trying to get some bags pumped.
No, this is the bitcoin halving event coming up in April 2024 and also the Jan announcement of ETFs in USA which open the door to institutional investment.
The graph of the price of bitcoin has been going up exponentially since it launched. Every four years starting one year before the halving event it shoots up for a year and then falls:
https://www.monochrome.au/research/articles/why-do-people-lo...
The graph of the price of bitcoin has been going up exponentially since it launched. Every four years starting one year before the halving event it shoots up for a year and then falls:
https://www.monochrome.au/research/articles/why-do-people-lo...
The ETF angle makes no sense to me. An ETF is designed to be based against a basket of securities. A bitcoin ETF seems really pointless. Why not just gamble on the token itself?
I see this as a means to sucker more retail cash in and have the early adopters of Bitcoin hoover it up.
For the record, my statement as of right now is still true. Remember that Bitcoin peaked at nearly 69k a piece and it’s currently at around $42k a piece.
I see this as a means to sucker more retail cash in and have the early adopters of Bitcoin hoover it up.
For the record, my statement as of right now is still true. Remember that Bitcoin peaked at nearly 69k a piece and it’s currently at around $42k a piece.
>An ETF is designed to be based against a basket of securities. A bitcoin ETF seems really pointless. Why not just gamble on the token itself?
Dunno, maybe you should ask State Street Global Advisors[1] or Blackrock[2] why they have gold ETFs, when investors could just gamble on the yellow stuff itself.
[1] https://www.ssga.com/us/en/intermediary/etfs/funds/spdr-gold...
[2] https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239561/ishares-gold-trus...
Dunno, maybe you should ask State Street Global Advisors[1] or Blackrock[2] why they have gold ETFs, when investors could just gamble on the yellow stuff itself.
[1] https://www.ssga.com/us/en/intermediary/etfs/funds/spdr-gold...
[2] https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239561/ishares-gold-trus...
You can't just put BTC into your Roth IRA. You can, however, buy a Bitcoin ETF in your Roth IRA. Or SEP, SIMPLE, many 401(k)'s, Traditional IRA, or any other number of accounts that actually ARE covered by SIPC insurance (which your crypto wallet isn't).
There's a good chunk of money that for regulatory reasons CAN'T touch it until it hits this structure.
There's a good chunk of money that for regulatory reasons CAN'T touch it until it hits this structure.
Because IRAs cannot purchase BTC directly.
I can’t imagine why I would want to purchase BTC on a vehicle intended for retirement savings. This is absolutely asinine to me and I see so many people losing their shirts and could be rife with abuse. If people really want to, they can gamble their money away at Coinbase.
This is really feeling like tragedy of the commons and needing to find more ways to pull in real money into this system so whales can swim in their piles.
This is really feeling like tragedy of the commons and needing to find more ways to pull in real money into this system so whales can swim in their piles.
>I can’t imagine why I would want to purchase BTC on a vehicle intended for retirement savings.
No capital gains, for one. "Buy BTC for my IRA" =/= "Bet my entire retirement fund on BTC"
No capital gains, for one. "Buy BTC for my IRA" =/= "Bet my entire retirement fund on BTC"
I never said entire retirement fund. Way to put words in my mouth. I mean having access to this at all is going to allow degenerate gamblers to have an avenue to spend on BTC and the contagion will spread further, like a self fulfilling prophecy.
Also, the halvening I imagine will be a very bad thing for miners, unless it’s guaranteed to double in price, miners are going to suddenly make less in value after the event occurs. Just because the halvening happened to behave a certain way in the past doesn’t guarantee future results.
Also, the halvening I imagine will be a very bad thing for miners, unless it’s guaranteed to double in price, miners are going to suddenly make less in value after the event occurs. Just because the halvening happened to behave a certain way in the past doesn’t guarantee future results.
>I never said entire retirement fund. Way to put words in my mouth. I mean having access to this at all is going to allow degenerate gamblers to have an avenue to spend on BTC and the contagion will spread further, like a self fulfilling prophecy.
You asked for good reasons why someone would put BTC in an IRA, and I gave you one. Whether or not "degenerate gamblers" would follow that advice is moving the goalposts. You can responsibly use your IRA to buy stocks as well, but that's irrespective of whether "degenerate gamblers" would abuse that.
>Also, the halvening I imagine will be a very bad thing for miners [...]
Are you replying to the wrong comment? I thought we were talking about IRAs?
You asked for good reasons why someone would put BTC in an IRA, and I gave you one. Whether or not "degenerate gamblers" would follow that advice is moving the goalposts. You can responsibly use your IRA to buy stocks as well, but that's irrespective of whether "degenerate gamblers" would abuse that.
>Also, the halvening I imagine will be a very bad thing for miners [...]
Are you replying to the wrong comment? I thought we were talking about IRAs?
If you saw what sorts of stocks people put in their IRA's, putting Bitcoin in there would be the least of your concern.
Remember GME, AMC?
Remember GME, AMC?
For some reason, I am unable to reply to the original thread I was on and I need to start another one here. Probably too far down the tree?
At any rate, one consideration folks don’t seem to have for the halvening is the reduction in rewards for miners.
As mining becomes more expensive and transaction fees increase exponentially, I see more and more smaller miners dropping out of the pool as it becomes too expensive for them to operate (and we are in a high interest rate environment, so capital for borrowing is much more expensive to acquire). Then the miners that are left start to concentrate and potentially cause a security concern. It becomes too top heavy.
I’m not sure why alarm bells aren’t going off for Bitcoiners?
At any rate, one consideration folks don’t seem to have for the halvening is the reduction in rewards for miners.
As mining becomes more expensive and transaction fees increase exponentially, I see more and more smaller miners dropping out of the pool as it becomes too expensive for them to operate (and we are in a high interest rate environment, so capital for borrowing is much more expensive to acquire). Then the miners that are left start to concentrate and potentially cause a security concern. It becomes too top heavy.
I’m not sure why alarm bells aren’t going off for Bitcoiners?
You act like this behavior makes sense, but no other asset acts like this, except maybe penny stocks?
> no other asset acts like this
You say it like it's a bad thing?
The fact that Bitcoin behaves like no other asset on the planet is precisely what makes it interesting, worth understanding, and if you can stomach the volatility over sizable stretches of time, worth owning.
This was true (although hard to understand back then) on January 3rd 2009, 18:15:05h UTC and still holds true 15 years later.
You say it like it's a bad thing?
The fact that Bitcoin behaves like no other asset on the planet is precisely what makes it interesting, worth understanding, and if you can stomach the volatility over sizable stretches of time, worth owning.
This was true (although hard to understand back then) on January 3rd 2009, 18:15:05h UTC and still holds true 15 years later.
PedroBatista(1)
I think HN will be the last place to embrace this news. I look forward to reading all the comments about how blockchain is just a bunch of scams that solves nothing.
But for those who have an open mind, here is a list of some useful applications: https://intercoin.org/applications
But for those who have an open mind, here is a list of some useful applications: https://intercoin.org/applications
I really tried to be open minded and clicked your link. You lost me at:
> By combining Web2 (community interfaces) and Web3 (smart economies), we can launch the next generation of applications — which we refer to as Web5.
This is not how versioning works. It looks more like marketing coming up with the highest number possible without a meaningful increase in value delivered. (Remember the old PC magazines with 999+ games on a CD Rom?)
> By combining Web2 (community interfaces) and Web3 (smart economies), we can launch the next generation of applications — which we refer to as Web5.
This is not how versioning works. It looks more like marketing coming up with the highest number possible without a meaningful increase in value delivered. (Remember the old PC magazines with 999+ games on a CD Rom?)
I don’t recall people saying Blockchain is useless.
I do recall people having that sentiment about cryptocurrency, especially as it exists now, which is not precisely the same thing. And for a technology that’s been around so long it’s taking an awful long time to start solving problems at any noteable scale.
I do recall people having that sentiment about cryptocurrency, especially as it exists now, which is not precisely the same thing. And for a technology that’s been around so long it’s taking an awful long time to start solving problems at any noteable scale.
[deleted]
> I don’t recall people saying Blockchain is useless.
About half of the natives here have a hard time telling the difference between Crypto, Bitcoin, Blockchain, Web3 and NFTs
The moment any of theses words are uttered here, instant skin rash.
At this point in time, it's so predictable it's actually quite enjoyable.
About half of the natives here have a hard time telling the difference between Crypto, Bitcoin, Blockchain, Web3 and NFTs
The moment any of theses words are uttered here, instant skin rash.
At this point in time, it's so predictable it's actually quite enjoyable.
These were known applications 5 years back. How are they now?
Well, we have some large paying clients and about a million community leaders that we plan to reach out to, once we launch the Software as a Service. We use the Factory pattern so you just fill in a form, press a button to launch the smart contracts, then grab a widget and put it on your site. Then invite everyone.
We have been spending a long time and $ on third party security audits etc.
We have been spending a long time and $ on third party security audits etc.
So I need to buy and use token and set up a wallet, isn’t that a lot of friction?
Pulling out your credit card and entering numbers is also a lot of friction. Especially if you are not in a Western country
Setting up crypto wallet vs the already familiar credit card seem like a step up in friction. It’s extremely unfamiliar to most people I’ve found.
"Web3" is going great!
https://www.web3isgoinggreat.com
https://www.web3isgoinggreat.com
When it was posted on HN, it’s very telling that the MAJORITY of TOPLEVEL comments were all downvoted into oblivion … any response other than “yeap, web3 sucks” is unacceptable on HN
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=36128484
This betrays some big misunderstanding of Bitcoin, which you can buy in quantities much smaller than 1 BTC (technically, as small as 10^-8 BTC). Many people gamble a few hundred dollars on Bitcoin.